Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

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AD dominated as a freshman in all aspects. JJJ showed flashes of talent but was prone to foul trouble and offensively is extremely raw. He has high upside but he is a project. His defense should translate but offensively he is has a ton to develop if you think he can be a superstar.
I disagree, I don't think he's a project. I think he's an instant impact guy who can get better every year like ad.
 
It's not a matter of him being better or worse than Hayward, it's that they're such different players. If Doncic is a 40% shooter from three (which is the hypothetical jcwkings was asking that you responded to) and an elite (albeit athletically limited) playmaker he's got more in common with Steve Nash than Gordon Hayward. Was Steve Nash better than Gordon Hayward? He passed the 18 ppg mark just twice in 18 seasons. He was also an 8 time All-Star, 2 time MVP, and is now in the Hall of Fame. How are we defining what a star is? Do you have to be a leading scorer to be a star? Until Steve got to Phoenix in his 9th season was he even considered a star? Most people didn't think so (including Marc Cuban who preferred rookie Devin Harris). Did D'Antoni and Amare make him into a star? Sometimes being in the right situation will radically change how we view a player. Ben Simmons averaged 16, 8, and 8 this season and can't shoot a lick and people are projecting stardom for him already. What if he averaged those same numbers but the Sixers only won 30 games, does that change how much we value those stats?

Does Luka Doncic need to be another James Harden to be worthy of a top pick? What if he's some kind of hybrid version of Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili, Steve Nash, and Peja Stojakovic? There are so many different nuances here that determine who is or isn't a star, I don't think it's fair to simplify this down to "not athletic = can't be a star". That's not what you're saying here, you're just saying he reminds you of Gordon Hayward. But I don't think that kind of comparison really matters. Especially if you're using it in a way to show that you like him less than other prospects (Jaren Jackson for instance) because his ceiling is lower. I don't see you arguing that we should we draft Trae Young because he might be Steph Curry. Isn't Steph Curry more accomplished than Anthony Davis? I think we all recognize that none of these players are exact clones of anyone. If Jackson ends up being, I don't know, 70% of Anthony Davis and Luka Doncic ends up being 85% of James Harden does that change your mind? We could nudge those numbers around all day but I feel like it's only distracting from what we actually want to know which is: (1) How good is Jaren Jackson Jr. going to be as an NBA player and (2) How good is Luka Doncic going to be as an NBA player. I don't know the answer to that, it's just a best guess kindof thing. I'd rather keep the comparisons out of it though. They're almost always misleading.
Yeah I get the argument, I personally don't see it as likely is all. I have Doncic 4th, I just want one of ayton, jjj, or Bamba more is all.
 
Hayward is a much more capable defender than doncic, its not a great comp. I use the Hayward comp only to talk about the Hayward led Jazz teams, thats they type of ituation the kings must avoid at all costs, chances of landing a gobert and mitchell as a quick fix are incredibly low....

There's a huge difference in their levels of polish heading into the NBA. One's an extreme early bloomer the other extreme late bloomer -- Hayward improved every single seasonn to get where he's at.
 
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Hayward is a much more capable defender than doncic, its not a great comp. I use the Hayward comp only to talk about the Hayward led Jazz teams, thats they type of ituation the kings must avoid at all costs, chances of landing a gobert and mitchell as a quick fix are incredibly low....

There's a huge difference in their levels of polish heading into the NBA. One's an extreme early bloomer the other extreme late bloomer -- Hayward improved every single seasonn to get where he's at.
Does it mean Luka can't improve every single season? I don't know why some people believe Luka has already reached his peak, where do you get this idea from? Just because he's so good at 19 doesn't mean he can't get much much better. Maybe you don't know him or his game very well, but you can clearly see there's so much room for improvement there, and he has the kind of personality that will allow him to constantly get better.
 
The Doncic-Hayward obsession on this website is making me want to bang my head off the wall. I can't wait until the season actually begins and people completely forget about the garbage comparisons they were so enamoured with over the summer.

Nobody is talking about past comparisons for current players. That's because they're junk and aren't helpful at all.
 
Does it mean Luka can't improve every single season? I don't know why some people believe Luka has already reached his peak, where do you get this idea from? Just because he's so good at 19 doesn't mean he can't get much much better. Maybe you don't know him or his game very well, but you can clearly see there's so much room for improvement there, and he has the kind of personality that will allow him to constantly get better.
Did i say that he's peaked or can't improve ?? Lol the amount of presumptuous responses i get here in a weeks time is staggering.

Where did i get the idea that Luka's an early bloomer? Do i really need to explain this?

Hayward was very bad early on compared to what Doncic will be IIRC he shot 26% FG's in his first playoff series vs the spurs. Like I said I dont think its a good comp, Hayward was very thin at 19 their not the same.

For Luka to maintain an improvement trajectory anywhere close to Hayward will be quite difficult tho, as Luka's defensive ceiling is lower..
 
Dx puts onn this front like their big board matters, then plays it coy then they change everything last minute based on behind the scenes rumors they probably hear from Woj. So yeah, politics as usual.
 
Dx puts onn this front like their big board matters, then plays it coy then they change everything last minute based on behind the scenes rumors they probably hear from Woj. So yeah, politics as usual.
That's the difference between a big board (their evaluation) and a mock draft (their guess at teams' evaluation). This is a transparent, obvious, difference. Not politics, not a charade. It always surprises me how folks fail to see this distinction.
 
His claim to fame is that he's an incredibly good basketball player with abnormally high basketball IQ who is doing things in European basketball that no one his age has done. Not just accolades, he's not a guy who is winning titles and sitting on the end of the bench. He is dominating games at age 18-19. Bogdan was one of the best players in Europe but even he didn't impact games as Luka is doing and he was aged 24. Bogdan at 19 was still a raw player and not the Bogdan we saw with the Kings. There's absolutely no indication to tell you Doncic won't continue to improve. He can improve his outside shooting, body and defensive acumen and shot making. Why does every guy in this draft given the benefit of having ceiling to improve but some fans seem to think Doncic won't improve much if at all from what he is now?
Yeah, and I don't give that bolded part much importance, as my original post explained. The other stuff I pay more attention to. As far as improvement, I would think he would improve. The question is how much he will improve. As I've previously said, athletic young guys typically have more upside because their skills haven't caught up with their athletic potential. Doncic is a 7 out of 10 on an athletic/quickness scale, which usually does not imply a great upside.
 
What 2nd rd pick do y'all think matches with Luka? Either by name or just position/player type.

I'm selfishly hoping Anfernee Simons falls in their laps.
Grayson Allen. Both guys are fiery leaders who aren't afraid to get in your face. What Allen lacks in skill, he makes up for in leadership. I definitely wouldn't mind having a guy like that coming off the bench.

If not him I wouldn't mind Mitchell Robinson if he's there, or Bruce Brown from Miami.
 
Sorry for double post but get hype :D

This is a very well done video. Those guys are extremely high on Doncic, but even they admit his downfalls as a prospect. For anyone who has not seen Doncic play at all, this is the video to watch.

He needs to be able to create his shot better at the next level. Too many step backs
 

funkykingston

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This is a very well done video. Those guys are extremely high on Doncic, but even they admit his downfalls as a prospect. For anyone who has not seen Doncic play at all, this is the video to watch.

He needs to be able to create his shot better at the next level. Too many step backs
The DraftExpress/ESPN videos have been especially good this year IMO.

The more I watch Doncic the more he reminds me of a jumbo sized D'Angelo Russell.

That's not necessarily a bad thing as Russell was a legit #2 pick and a lot of his issues (IMO) were attitude and/or between the ears which I don't worry about with Luka but it does concern me in terms of Doncic's potential upside.
 
The DraftExpress/ESPN videos have been especially good this year IMO.

The more I watch Doncic the more he reminds me of a jumbo sized D'Angelo Russell.

That's not necessarily a bad thing as Russell was a legit #2 pick and a lot of his issues (IMO) were attitude and/or between the ears which I don't worry about with Luka but it does concern me in terms of Doncic's potential upside.
A healthy Russell is a pretty good player and he had the same athleticism question while being 3inches shorter
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
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A healthy Russell is a pretty good player and he had the same athleticism question while being 3inches shorter
Yes he is, but even if he were healthy and reached his peak, is he worth the #2 pick in this draft?

That's what I'm struggling with.

I don't think anyone would argue that Doncic has the highest ceiling in this draft. He arguably has the highest floor but Ayton, Bamba, Bagley, Jackson and even Porter could be said to have a higher possible outcome as a player. Who is the most likely to reach their ceiling though?
 
The DraftExpress/ESPN videos have been especially good this year IMO.

The more I watch Doncic the more he reminds me of a jumbo sized D'Angelo Russell.

That's not necessarily a bad thing as Russell was a legit #2 pick and a lot of his issues (IMO) were attitude and/or between the ears which I don't worry about with Luka but it does concern me in terms of Doncic's potential upside.
That's a good prospect for prospect comp. I think what will help Doncic in the NBA compared to Russell is his size. +3in +30lbs. Just playing SF instead of PG will help cover some of his athletic limitations whereas Russell can't get away with it playing PG/SG against quick guards.

man oh man, you got a bunch of disappointments in the 2015 draft. They're all still young, but there's a bunch of guys who just haven't scratched the surface in terms of their ceiling: Russell, Okafor, Hezonja, Mudiay, Johnson, Kaminsky, Winslow, Lyles, and Payne. These are all lotto guys. For all the crap people give 2016, 2015 is looking worse with a bunch of disappointments right now.
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
That's a good prospect for prospect comp. I think what will help Doncic in the NBA compared to Russell is his size. +3in +30lbs. Just playing SF instead of PG will help cover some of his athletic limitations whereas Russell can't get away with it playing PG/SG against quick guards.

man oh man, you got a bunch of disappointments in the 2015 draft. They're all still young, but there's a bunch of guys who just haven't scratched the surface in terms of their ceiling: Russell, Okafor, Hezonja, Mudiay, Johnson, Kaminsky, Winslow, Lyles, and Payne. These are all lotto guys. For all the crap people give 2016, 2015 is looking worse with a bunch of disappointments right now.
Yeah, you had KAT and Porzingis at the top and Booker & Myles Turner at the end of the lottery but not much else. WCS doesn't look like a bad pick in hindsight.

And NBAdraft.net still just has the worst player comparisons. KAT is Andrew Bogut? Porzingis is Bargnani? Turner is Erick Dampier? Mudiay is John Wall? It's fine to overrate or underrate a guy but a lot of their comparisons flat out make no sense.

https://hoopshype.com/2015/06/25/nba-draft-2015-pick-by-pick/
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
This is a very well done video. Those guys are extremely high on Doncic, but even they admit his downfalls as a prospect. For anyone who has not seen Doncic play at all, this is the video to watch.

He needs to be able to create his shot better at the next level. Too many step backs
Have you seen James Harden play? Slow death by a million stepback jumpers, free throws, and passes out to the wing is exactly how he played his way to 30/9/5 and a (likely) MVP award this year and that describes Doncic's game perfectly as well. People want to act like Harden is some kind of super athlete that Luka will never compare to and yeah he had pretty good testing numbers at the combine but his .449/.367/.858 shooting splits this year aren't at all unattainable. If you give Doncic the same 20 shots a game and free reign to run the offense I don't see why he can't come somewhere close to what Harden is doing.

In the past I would have been nervous about his ability to defend wings in the NBA as well but who is Harden defending? Who is Curry locking up? Nobody is winning a championship without elite offense right now. And aside from a couple dominant shot blockers, individual defense is not that important in the pace and space era. Yes I would love to have two way players at every position but this is the year we've got the #2 pick. Nobody on the board (with the possible exceptions of Trae Young and DeAndre Ayton) is capable of creating offense as well as Doncic can.
 
Have you seen James Harden play? Slow death by a million stepback jumpers, free throws, and passes out to the wing is exactly how he played his way to 30/9/5 and a (likely) MVP award this year and that describes Doncic's game perfectly as well. People want to act like Harden is some kind of super athlete that Luka will never compare to and yeah he had pretty good testing numbers at the combine but his .449/.367/.858 shooting splits this year aren't at all unattainable. If you give Doncic the same 20 shots a game and free reign to run the offense I don't see why he can't come somewhere close to what Harden is doing.

In the past I would have been nervous about his ability to defend wings in the NBA as well but who is Harden defending? Who is Curry locking up? Nobody is winning a championship without elite offense right now. And aside from a couple dominant shot blockers, individual defense is not that important in the pace and space era. Yes I would love to have two way players at every position but this is the year we've got the #2 pick. Nobody on the board (with the possible exceptions of Trae Young and DeAndre Ayton) is capable of creating offense as well as Doncic can.
It also describes D'Angelo Russell. Results will vary with all players. Like I've said before, not a fan of the step back shots. You're also over simplifying Harden's MVP campaign. You're seriously suggesting that if we give Doncic 20 shots a game plus free reign to the offense, he could be a 30-9-5 MVP candidate who carries his team to the WCF? come on man. All I said was I don't like him taking those step-back jumpers. He's a 6'8 230lb SF. For being that big and strong, your scoring shouldn't be relied upon step-back 3pters.
 
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