Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[Joshoua]

Is Doncic athletic for a PF? Given his age/body composition/where game is that’s where I think he’s headed.

The more I think about Vivek’s trip to Spain, the more it signaled to me the Kings aren’t playing games with their interest level. As much as I want Vivek to remain in the background, the fact that he made it a point to travel half way around the world, when it usually isn’t typical for owners to be involved heavily in the process at all, makes me think the interest is there

He could spend 90% of the time at PF and it wouldn’t hurt us not many pfs are posting up nowadays and teams go small

 

[hrdboild]

I could give you my answer, but my answer is nothing but a guess. All any team can do is make their best guess based on as much information that they can find. Which of course is more than I'll have. Or you'll have. If a player works hard, he can improve his skill level. So if Doncic is a hard worker, he'll get better. The one thing a player can't significantly improve is his athleticism. If you don't have great lateral quickness, you can improve is a little, but in most cases, not enough to make a big difference.

So my guess would be, that if you have a player like Bagley for instance, who is a freak athlete, but is a little weak in the skills dept, but he still puts up big numbers despite that, then you probably have a player, who with hard work, can be significantly better down the road. Translated that means, if he's good now, without those skills, he'll likely be a monster with them. = Very high ceiling....

On the other hand, when you have a player, like Doncic for example, who is maybe, a little better than average athlete, but highly skilled, who put up above average numbers in Europe, is likely to get a little better with hard work, but the jump will not be as significant as the jump Bagley made. Lets be honest, freak athlete's that are highly skilled are rare, and the chances of any of these top players becoming that are slim. Because if they become that, then you have the next Michael Jordan, or Lebron James. Those are once in a lifetime players.

But the chances of a Bagley becoming a Paul George, Dwayne Wade or a Kevin Garnett (referring to talent level only) isn't that far fetched. But I think the chances of Doncic reaching that level is unlikely. Doesn't mean he can't make an impact or be an all star, but I can't see him ever approaching superstar status. Of course I could be dead wrong! But for the most part, I think history is on my side. If you lack that elite athleticism, it's more difficult to reach that status, but not impossible. However, I'll take an average athlete that's highly skilled over an unskilled elite athlete all day long. Assuming I'm talking about a finished product.

This is generally the case, but it's overlooking the fact that all of these players are very different. Who is the better athlete between Bagley, Bamba, Jackson, Porter, and Ayton? Does it even matter? All of them bring different styles to the game. Jackson is great at defending the pick and roll and protecting the basket from the weakside. When Bamba stands in the paint with his arms up, no guard in the league will be able to get a shot off against him. Bagley is super fast and fluid for a 7 footer which will make him a scoring machine when he catches the ball in space. Porter is basically 6'11" with a high release point on his jumper which is going to be unblockable. I think the talent level here is pretty comparable so it's more a matter of what you want to add to your team the most.

When looking at Luka Doncic, it doesn't really matter to me if he's the most hyped European prospect ever. That barely enters into the decision making. What matters to me is that when I watch him play I see a 6'8" forward who is a transcendent playmaker and has the ball skills to create shots anywhere on the floor. I don't see how a guy like that can fail. There are great playmakers who are undersized or don't have a great jumper or may lack the footspeed or ball skills to break down their defender in the NBA. There are great shooters who really only look at the basket once they've got the ball even if it means forcing up a shot through a double team. But in Doncic we have a player who is capable of creating his own offense and creating good looks for his teammates. That's complete mastery of the offensive side of the game and more often than not that's MVP type stuff. It's rare to see that complete of a talent even in the high lottery. I don't see any argument for Porter, Bagley, Bamba, Jackson, or even Ayton providing the kind of value for a team that Doncic can if his playmaking and scoring skills translate.

 

[Gguod]

Statistically, most important players are guards/wings who can create for themselves and others. Those are the players who have the biggest impact on offense and therefore the most important player types. Also wing position is a premium position at the moment (hardest position to find cheap talent).

There are many talented players in this draft but when you think little further, analyze statistics, consider how the game is played today and how these prospects will most likely provide value, its not that hard of a choise. Just really have to hope that the Suns pick Ayton.

Someone made some comparisons about "better playmaking Hayward" and thats ridiculously valuable player. Hayward is an all star, easily max contract player. You add as valuable quality as elite playmaking, you got yourself a gem. That type of player provides much more value than any defensive liability, non playmaking big man

 

[John Galt]

Having produced at a high level, against strong competition, with a lot on the line... that counts for a lot. Nearly everything to me. Athleticism is meh to me. I mean WCS is a nice freak athlete ... McLemore could jump over Shaq on a throne... the Coke Machine could jump all the way out of the gym.

Give me younger taller Bogi on steroids any day. Or Fox (clutch man). Or Buddy (hardest working King). Super handles and super brains and mental toughness... that is what I want and I think we’re stockpiling guys like that. I believe Doncic will fit in with this clutch hard working core really really well.

 

[jcwkings]

I could give you my answer, but my answer is nothing but a guess. All any team can do is make their best guess based on as much information that they can find. Which of course is more than I'll have. Or you'll have. If a player works hard, he can improve his skill level. So if Doncic is a hard worker, he'll get better. The one thing a player can't significantly improve is his athleticism. If you don't have great lateral quickness, you can improve is a little, but in most cases, not enough to make a big difference.

So my guess would be, that if you have a player like Bagley for instance, who is a freak athlete, but is a little weak in the skills dept, but he still puts up big numbers despite that, then you probably have a player, who with hard work, can be significantly better down the road. Translated that means, if he's good now, without those skills, he'll likely be a monster with them. = Very high ceiling....

On the other hand, when you have a player, like Doncic for example, who is maybe, a little better than average athlete, but highly skilled, who put up above average numbers in Europe, is likely to get a little better with hard work, but the jump will not be as significant as the jump Bagley made. Lets be honest, freak athlete's that are highly skilled are rare, and the chances of any of these top players becoming that are slim. Because if they become that, then you have the next Michael Jordan, or Lebron James. Those are once in a lifetime players.

But the chances of a Bagley becoming a Paul George, Dwayne Wade or a Kevin Garnett (referring to talent level only) isn't that far fetched. But I think the chances of Doncic reaching that level is unlikely. Doesn't mean he can't make an impact or be an all star, but I can't see him ever approaching superstar status. Of course I could be dead wrong! But for the most part, I think history is on my side. If you lack that elite athleticism, it's more difficult to reach that status, but not impossible. However, I'll take an average athlete that's highly skilled over an unskilled elite athlete all day long. Assuming I'm talking about a finished product.

Here's a question. If Doncic becomes an elite level outside shooter down the line does he not project as a true star player? His vision, passing and basketball IQ are elite level for his age. His ball handling is near elite for his size. When I see him shoot I see no reason he can't develop into a 40% three point shooter who can shoot off the dribble.

 

[Hansel]

At number two? Kurucs you might be able to get at number 36. I do think Musa will go in the 1st round, but not in the lottery.

I wasn't serious.
It's pretty clear from my messages and my image here on the left who would be my choice.
I don't need any highlight, measurement, workout or interview by other players.
He would be my pick even with the first overall pick.

 

[jcwkings]

I'm tired of reading this blurb about Doncic being the "most accomplished teenage basketball player of the last 20 years." I don't care if he's the most accomplished teenage player in europe in 50 years, 100 years. Makes no difference whatsoever. What counts is what kind of basketball player he is going to be over the next decade or so in the NBA. If you've lived on this planet for any length of time you've seen young guys that topped out much earlier than you would think. Heck, I remember a guy in my junior high who was Mr. Universe in athletics and then he was so-so relatively speaking when he got into high school. Then we know stories about late bloomers who turned out great - the Greek Freek for one. Jordan for another. And then there is the guy who is great in high school and remains great in the NBA - LBJ. You can come up with examples for every category. The analysis for the Kings is all about one thing - how much better or worse is he going to be in the NBA three or four years from now?

So should we have scrapped any tape we had of Bogdan playing in Europe? These guys are professionals playing and practicing and competing for jobs just like the NBA, executing game plans. It isn't high school tape where the competition are kids that will be selling you insurance or washing your car in a few years. It isn't AAU pick up ball.

 

[Joshoua]

Some of you should be embarrassed we of all people shouldn’t question if Doncic will translate. Bogdan is enough proof

 

[VF21]

I wasn't serious.
It's pretty clear from my messages and my image here on the left who would be my choice.
I don't need any highlight, measurement, workout or interview by other players.
He would be my pick even with the first overall pick.

I'm right there with you.

 

[roasthawg]

Here's a question. If Doncic becomes an elite level outside shooter down the line does he not project as a true star player? His vision, passing and basketball IQ are elite level for his age. His ball handling is near elite for his size. When I see him shoot I see no reason he can't develop into a 40% three point shooter who can shoot off the dribble.

He projects as Gordon Hayward in that case.

 

[Dime Dropper]

He projects as Gordon Hayward in that case.

He's a far better passer than Hayward right now, never mind 5 years down the line.

 

[hrdboild]

He projects as Gordon Hayward in that case.

The same Gordon Hayward who is a 37% career shooter from three and has only averaged 5 assists per 36 minutes once? I still think that's a decent comparison only if you think Doncic is maxed out on his development already at 19 years old.

 

[Kingster]

So should we have scrapped any tape we had of Bogdan playing in Europe? These guys are professionals playing and practicing and competing for jobs just like the NBA, executing game plans. It isn't high school tape where the competition are kids that will be selling you insurance or washing your car in a few years. It isn't AAU pick up ball.

It has nothing to do with seeing tape of Bogdan. It just seems like the kid's claim to fame is that he's the youngest to do such and such. I don't think that claim is worth much, as my post described.

 

[Kingster]

I think we need to choose our words more carefully. The spoken word has inflection where the written word doesn't. So one can glean more from an actually conversation in person than what's written. On the other hand, when one has the time to write, one can be more thoughtful about it and hopefully choose his or her words more carefully. For example, when I read what you've written, I could easily come away with the opinion that you put zero value on the past history of a player. But I know that's not what your implying.

And, you also seem to be implying that everyone else wants to pick said player, based entirely on his past history, which, at least for me isn't true. It's certainly a part of it, probably a large part of it, but not the entire case. Someone told me once that the word assume means U make an A$$ out of me. In other words assuming things can get you into trouble. But there's a lot of assuming that goes on here by everyone. One of the reasons I tend to write long posts is because I'm trying to make sure that what I'm trying to say is as clear as possible.

I might add, that despite that, there's always someone that misunderstands me. Or perhaps doesn't want to understand me. Or, lacks reader comprehension.

I'm saying that just because Doncic is the youngest to do such and such in europe is not the sufficient condition to pick him; it's one piece of evidence, not the decisive piece of evidence, in determining whether the Kings should pick him. Yet it seems to be leader for many blurbs that I see about him. Like I said, whether he is the youngest or not is immaterial to me, for reasons that I specified in my original post.

 

[twslam07]

Anyone else see similarities between Philadelphia and us if we draft Doncic?

Simmons vs. Doncic
Both are big PGs who have high IQ. Simmons is more athletic and a better defender (most likely) while Doncic is the better shooter.

Embiid vs. Giles
Both have the injury history. Both were labeled as very talented big men coming out who are also great athletes.

Fultz vs. Fox
Athletic, high upside PGs who were projected to be good defenders. Both struggled with consistency and their shot during their rookie years.

Redick vs. Hield
Elite shooting from SG while being an average athlete

Saric vs. Bogdanovic
High IQ, floor spacing Euro who can make plays & find the open man for easy looks.


Essentially this entire comparison relies on Giles showing he's for real and Doncic hitting the ground running, but it's interesting to say the least...

 

[SLAB]

If Giles is even half of what Embiid is, I'll be thrilled. I know the hype train is behind him, and I want to be on it... but idk, I'm just so used to disappointment

 

[jcwkings]

He projects as Gordon Hayward in that case.

Gordon Hayward doesn't have the court vision and passing of Doncic even already at 19. Maybe Gordon Hayward with Ben Simmons type court vision. I would be curious to see game tape of Hayward as a college freshman.

 

[Kingsfan23]

Embiid and Giles?

 

[jcwkings]

It has nothing to do with seeing tape of Bogdan. It just seems like the kid's claim to fame is that he's the youngest to do such and such. I don't think that claim is worth much, as my post described.

His claim to fame is that he's an incredibly good basketball player with abnormally high basketball IQ who is doing things in European basketball that no one his age has done. Not just accolades, he's not a guy who is winning titles and sitting on the end of the bench. He is dominating games at age 18-19. Bogdan was one of the best players in Europe but even he didn't impact games as Luka is doing and he was aged 24. Bogdan at 19 was still a raw player and not the Bogdan we saw with the Kings. There's absolutely no indication to tell you Doncic won't continue to improve. He can improve his outside shooting, body and defensive acumen and shot making. Why does every guy in this draft given the benefit of having ceiling to improve but some fans seem to think Doncic won't improve much if at all from what he is now?

 

[SLAB]

That's the craziest part of this whole debate. It's like every other prospect has this high reaching unseeable ceiling, but not Doncic for.... some reason? Was he TOO GOOD at 19, hence he's just done improving as a basketball player.

 

[roasthawg]

His claim to fame is that he's an incredibly good basketball player with abnormally high basketball IQ who is doing things in European basketball that no one his age has done. Not just accolades, he's not a guy who is winning titles and sitting on the end of the bench. He is dominating games at age 18-19. Bogdan was one of the best players in Europe but even he didn't impact games as Luka is doing and he was aged 24. Bogdan at 19 was still a raw player and not the Bogdan we saw with the Kings. There's absolutely no indication to tell you Doncic won't continue to improve. He can improve his outside shooting, body and defensive acumen and shot making. Why does every guy in this draft given the benefit of having ceiling to improve but some fans seem to think Doncic won't improve much if at all from what he is now?

No one is saying he won't improve. I think where he's at currently is being overstated. Luka vs Bogdan is close if you ignore their age for a second and just look at their final season in Europe. Bogdan was the slightly better shooter while Luka was the slightly better playmaker. So maybe for his first season in the NBA we can expect roughly what we got from Bogdan last year? From there it's quite a ways to reach Gordon Hayward status but I definitely believe given his age that Luka can do it.

My only disagreement with many of you it seems is how much better he can be than Hayward. I just don't see that kind of progression in him. Hayward has maxed out given his athletic ability and I expect to see a similar max from Luka. Maybe I'm wrong and his max is James harden rather than Gordon Hayward. I get that that's the upside a lot of you see. And it's definitely a possibility. I just think if we're going best possible case that jjj has a better chance at becoming ad than Luka does harden. Have to play the odds.

 

[ESP47]

. WCS can design hats, do super chill laid back interviews after bad games, and give hugs and kudos to the star players on the opposite team after they beat our ass ... all the stuff he's proven he is good at ... while Ayton beasts on the floor.

This actually made me laugh out loud

 

[ESP47]

Some of you should be embarrassed we of all people shouldn’t question if Doncic will translate. Bogdan is enough proof

I think their fears are not wanting to draft a guy at #2 that just winds up being the same level as Bogdan.

 

[Amiga]

Anyone else see similarities between Philadelphia and us if we draft Doncic?

Simmons vs. Doncic
Both are big PGs who have high IQ. Simmons is more athletic and a better defender (most likely) while Doncic is the better shooter.

Embiid vs. Giles
Both have the injury history. Both were labeled as very talented big men coming out who are also great athletes.

Fultz vs. Fox
Athletic, high upside PGs who were projected to be good defenders. Both struggled with consistency and their shot during their rookie years.

Redick vs. Hield
Elite shooting from SG while being an average athlete

Saric vs. Bogdanovic
High IQ, floor spacing Euro who can make plays & find the open man for easy looks.


Essentially this entire comparison relies on Giles showing he's for real and Doncic hitting the ground running, but it's interesting to say the least...

I was thinking the same exact thing!

 

[hrdboild]

No one is saying he won't improve. I think where he's at currently is being overstated. Luka vs Bogdan is close if you ignore their age for a second and just look at their final season in Europe. Bogdan was the slightly better shooter while Luka was the slightly better playmaker. So maybe for his first season in the NBA we can expect roughly what we got from Bogdan last year? From there it's quite a ways to reach Gordon Hayward status but I definitely believe given his age that Luka can do it.

My only disagreement with many of you it seems is how much better he can be than Hayward. I just don't see that kind of progression in him. Hayward has maxed out given his athletic ability and I expect to see a similar max from Luka. Maybe I'm wrong and his max is James harden rather than Gordon Hayward. I get that that's the upside a lot of you see. And it's definitely a possibility. I just think if we're going best possible case that jjj has a better chance at becoming ad than Luka does harden. Have to play the odds.

It's not a matter of him being better or worse than Hayward, it's that they're such different players. If Doncic is a 40% shooter from three (which is the hypothetical jcwkings was asking that you responded to) and an elite (albeit athletically limited) playmaker he's got more in common with Steve Nash than Gordon Hayward. Was Steve Nash better than Gordon Hayward? He passed the 18 ppg mark just twice in 18 seasons. He was also an 8 time All-Star, 2 time MVP, and is now in the Hall of Fame. How are we defining what a star is? Do you have to be a leading scorer to be a star? Until Steve got to Phoenix in his 9th season was he even considered a star? Most people didn't think so (including Marc Cuban who preferred rookie Devin Harris). Did D'Antoni and Amare make him into a star? Sometimes being in the right situation will radically change how we view a player. Ben Simmons averaged 16, 8, and 8 this season and can't shoot a lick and people are projecting stardom for him already. What if he averaged those same numbers but the Sixers only won 30 games, does that change how much we value those stats?

Does Luka Doncic need to be another James Harden to be worthy of a top pick? What if he's some kind of hybrid version of Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili, Steve Nash, and Peja Stojakovic? There are so many different nuances here that determine who is or isn't a star, I don't think it's fair to simplify this down to "not athletic = can't be a star". That's not what you're saying here, you're just saying he reminds you of Gordon Hayward. But I don't think that kind of comparison really matters. Especially if you're using it in a way to show that you like him less than other prospects (Jaren Jackson for instance) because his ceiling is lower. I don't see you arguing that we should we draft Trae Young because he might be Steph Curry. Isn't Steph Curry more accomplished than Anthony Davis? I think we all recognize that none of these players are exact clones of anyone. If Jackson ends up being, I don't know, 70% of Anthony Davis and Luka Doncic ends up being 85% of James Harden does that change your mind? We could nudge those numbers around all day but I feel like it's only distracting from what we actually want to know which is: (1) How good is Jaren Jackson Jr. going to be as an NBA player and (2) How good is Luka Doncic going to be as an NBA player. I don't know the answer to that, it's just a best guess kindof thing. I'd rather keep the comparisons out of it though. They're almost always misleading.

 

[Ozymandias]

Was watching team USA at the fiba u18 tournament today. They won the first quarter 44-0 vs Panama. LOL

 

[Ozymandias]

He could spend 90% of the time at PF and it wouldn’t hurt us not many pfs are posting up nowadays and teams go small

Much better idea would be to sign and start Thaddeus Young at pf next to Doncic so he can switch onto any SF's who physically overwhelm him.

 

[Sac.Kings]

Much better idea would be to sign and start Thaddeus Young at pf next to Doncic so he can switch onto any SF's who physically overwhelm him.

I'm confused here. Have Young switch to the SF slot while we push Luka to.... PF? That wouldn't exactly help Luka with being overwhelmed.

 

[jcwkings]

No one is saying he won't improve. I think where he's at currently is being overstated. Luka vs Bogdan is close if you ignore their age for a second and just look at their final season in Europe. Bogdan was the slightly better shooter while Luka was the slightly better playmaker. So maybe for his first season in the NBA we can expect roughly what we got from Bogdan last year? From there it's quite a ways to reach Gordon Hayward status but I definitely believe given his age that Luka can do it.

My only disagreement with many of you it seems is how much better he can be than Hayward. I just don't see that kind of progression in him. Hayward has maxed out given his athletic ability and I expect to see a similar max from Luka. Maybe I'm wrong and his max is James harden rather than Gordon Hayward. I get that that's the upside a lot of you see. And it's definitely a possibility. I just think if we're going best possible case that jjj has a better chance at becoming ad than Luka does harden. Have to play the odds.

AD dominated as a freshman in all aspects. JJJ showed flashes of talent but was prone to foul trouble and offensively is extremely raw. He has high upside but he is a project. His defense should translate but offensively he is has a ton to develop if you think he can be a superstar.

 

[funkykingston]

I'm confused here. Have Young switch to the SF slot while we push Luka to.... PF? That wouldn't exactly help Luka with being overwhelmed.

No, it would be more like what the Warriors do with Curry and Thompson, giving Klay the tougher assignment and letting Steph guard the other opposing guard.

Young would take the better of the two opposing forwards. Some nights that would be the SF and some nights that would be the PF.