Marvin Bagley III

Suicide King · Jun 2, 2018

Excellent post. Enter, Mohamed Bamba. I have said before, don't try to be like team X. Make other teams want to be like you.

I understand that we have been building towards a specific playstyle ( I hope ), however when the the Bulls placard turned over at the 7th pick, everything had to pause and be re-evaluated IMHO.

Do not get me wrong, I am a believer in "The Prophecy"

like a lot of fans. However at the end of the day, when we landed the second pick ( Thank you BB gods finally) all bets immediately were off in my mind. You do not choose the second best player in a good draft to fit your roster. We Karma'd into this one. You pick the best player available and adjust accordingly.

I am just not sold on any specific prospect at this point, but I know when I trust my gut, I have so far only fell on a Jimmer blade

My Rudy Gobert and Steven Adams "hunches" are akin to another's Steph or Mitchell "hunch". Sadly I was still a lurker then.

To end with a TLDR: I agree you shouldn't necessarily try and be the Warriors. I love our Golden Years style of basketball wholeheartedly, one of the main reasons I am still here posting now almost 20 years later.

However, we got the number 2 pick, finally, in a good draft. All bets are off.

Gguod · Jun 2, 2018

John Galt said:

Two non shooters=horrible spacing and zero above average wing defenders. Nothing wrong with Luka but a lot wrong with Randle and Giles on the court at the same time

Gguod · Jun 2, 2018

Livinthedream said:

First of all Kings werent really built for switching defense with Boogie and Kosta often even starting together.

The three point shooting and and the importance of spacing is more than a trend. It was the league starting to understand analytics better. Average 3 point shooter shooting a 3 is now and will always be a better shot than an average post up player taking a 1-1 post shot. Or an average mid range shooter taking a mid ranger. Also the offense with spacing will almost every time be more efficent than without it. These are not trends, these are the league getting smarter.

What is more of a trend atm is switching and how the offenses are trying to beat it. Thats where you probably see more movement and different tactics. At the moment the most efficent way to defend pick n rolls and off ball screens in a spacing system is to have as many good wing defenders at the floor as possible and switch everything. For example in the end of the game Celtics had a line up on the floor with personell like: Smart, Brown, Tatum, Morris, Horford. That will allways be a good defensive lineup because they can easily switch everything and force the offense in a 1-1 situation.

The thing with trying to set trends is not simple at all. Even if one team had Shaq, it still doesnt change the fact that your offense works better with a lot of shooters in the lineup or that the three point shot is more valuable than mid ranger or contested hook shot (done by an average "hook shooter"). Having a Lebron or Steph isnt setting a trend. Setting a trend is building a team with a smart consept and getting the most out of it (aka the Celtics, Rockets). Having a Lebron or Shaq is a lethal weapon against switching but you probably will never have a player like that. Thats why you set up an efficent system, get the players that fit that system and by using analytics, determine the type of shots you want out of your players, for example if your center is capable of posting up, you dont just post hin up against another center, you put him as a screener for the pg and then post up the switch or force them to defend the pick n roll with traditional coverage ect.

Ozymandias · Jun 2, 2018

Bagley III is 4th on my board i'll be happy if he's the pick though, lets be real if his wingspan was 5" longer he'd be the unanimous #1 on all boards. The dumb one and done rule helps the kings this year he'd have gone real high lasdt year if elligible.

Marvin is the best highschool (and middle-school tbh) PF i've ever seen. He's a lefty too! Harry Giles easily one of the best ive seen too FWIW.

I remember watching a video "the best 8th grader since LeBron" about Bagley, who looked about 6'10 with a 35" vert already. IIRC he was near 6'4 in 6th grade....... The yuoungest player in the state of arizona to recieve a d1 offer. UCONNoffered him in 2012 iirc.....

He could start from day 1. If Marvins the pick i really hope zach randolph doesnt take his minutes. I've seen marvin play probably 40 or 50 games over the years since WCAG aau with Tyger Campbell and Darius Garland. He is and always be a headliner talent.

Marvin reminds me of Blake Griffin and a bit of Amare. The way he positions himself is the best though, his offensive instincts are impeccable, given any sort of minutes he'll score 15ppg ez. Pro's understand the importance of beating you man before you get the ball and Marvin is savant level at this already, he's like water finding its way into cracks oft the pavement then expanding to cause potholes levels of slippery. I do think his shooting will come around. He's gonna be unstoppable in transition, Bagley's raw speed is actually understated, he can really run.

Ozymandias · Jun 2, 2018

Bagley's drop step is so quick , his ability to re post is so quick it seemed like he was able to freeze his defender in the lane whenever he wanted in college.He's truly quick as a cat. The grandson of Jumpin Joe Caldwell from the ABA.

DeAndre Hunter on UVA defended him best.

funkykingston · Jun 2, 2018

Ozymandias said:

Out of curiosity, who do you have top 3 and in what order?

ESP47 · Jun 2, 2018

BeerNerd916 said:

They play different positions so why would you need to trade Bogie? Redundant skills don't matter if the players can do everything. It's why Paul and Harden work well together. They can both make plays but they can both shoot so it doesn't make one of them useless when the other has the ball. It would be the same (to a lesser extent obviously) with Bogie and Doncic. If Doncic has the ball in his hands, he has a good shooter in Bogie to kick the ball out to and vice versa if Bogie is running the play. Doncic is great because you don't have to build a team specifically around him. He just plugs right in.

Oh and if you want to compare their stats, feel free to. Light years better at the same age is exactly what it is. Luka at 19 was better than Bogie at 24. Bogie at 19 was an end of bench player.

If you want some context, pull up a mock draft and start looking at the statistics of some of the seniors mocked to go in the 2nd round. These guys will have really good numbers. The big men will have 18ppg and 10rpg or the point guards 20ppg and 7apg. Then you'll look at some of the lottery players and their stats won't be nearly as good but they are almost all freshmen. It's because they are already almost as good as the seniors and they're 3 years behind them. Pay attention to a lot of these big stat seniors stats and their freshman years will be like 4ppg and 2rpg or something like that and they gradually start putting up better numbers the longer they stay in college. The freshman come out of the gate much much better at the same age and these are the guys that wind up being stars in the NBA because they are beginning their careers at a much higher peak, which means they have massive room for improvement. The Luka/Bogie comparison is basically the same deal.

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Bogdan-Bogdanovic/Summary/24809

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Luka-Doncic/Summary/54148

Ozymandias · Jun 2, 2018

funkykingston said:

Bamba, Ayton then JJJ.... I have a hunch Mo is gonna be big-time....

funkykingston · Jun 2, 2018

Good read on Bagley and his fit in today's NBA.

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2018/06/01/nba-draft-prospect-profile-marvin-bagley/

bajaden · Jun 2, 2018

Suicide King said:

In regards to play style, the question you have to ask, is would the Spurs change their approach on how to play basketball because the player they drafted doesn't fit that style? I don't think so, which means they either think said player is coachable, and will be able to adjust, or, they wouldn't draft him in the first place. I don't think a team can keep adjusting how they play to the different players they draft and be successful. Particularly if your starting from scratch, and trying to build a certain type of team. If you have a plan, I think you have to stick with it.

bajaden · Jun 2, 2018

Ozymandias said:

I agree on most of what you say on Bagley. His quickness reminds me of AD, or even of WCS on the Kings. Different kind of player of course, but just referring to his athleticism. He's one of the quickest 2nd leapers I've ever seen. Looks like he's on a pogo stick at times. Defensively, he has all the tools to be a good defender. You know as well as I do that many of these great highschool players were never asked to play a lick of defense prior to college. So to expect them to come in and look like world defenders is ridiculous.

I think Bagley will be a great P&R player in the NBA, and if he ever masters that 17 foot jumper he becomes a different player. Much has been made about Bamba's potential as a stretch five, despite his poor numbers shooting the three. No one mentions that Bagley actually shot the ball well from the three. Granted, almost all of them were wide open uncontested shots, but hey, he made 38% of them. Obviously I'm not as high on Bamba as you are, but my reservations are based more on fit, than anything else. I want the right fit on the Kings. If possible!

Kingster · Jun 2, 2018

sactowndog said:

Yeah, I think that I mentioned that FT% fly-in-the-ointment in another post. That's the one thing that might be important, or might not be important. Everything else though looks good. I'd really like to know from the Kings analytic dept. what the statistical correlation is between FT% and ultimate FG%, and 3 pt. % is from the day a kid gets drafted to the end of his career.

bajaden · Jun 2, 2018

Ozymandias said:

I'm curious about your opinion on Bamba. I'm trying to figure out what I'm missing that your seeing. I watched him play in over 20 games and I came away with the same opinion every time. Great shotblocker, and good but not great rebounder. I think the rebounding will improve with added strength. Good post defender at times, but he also got moved around by smaller players at times, and bit on ball fakes a little too often. On the perimeter he certainly put out the effort, but couldn't keep talented quick ballhandlers in front of him. But he did pursue well when beaten, and managed many blocks from behind.

Offensively, in the high post, he was worthless and seemed to have no feel for the game. Now I grant you that maybe it's the first time in his life he's been asked to play there, but in the few times he out there, he failed to make simple reads. In the post, when asked to post up, he mostly struggled when up against a player his own size, and even when against a smaller player, he struggled if he was further than 3 feet from the basket. I saw him throw up some ridiculous shots. I know many want to compare him to Gobert, but to be honest, he reminds me of a more fluid Mutombo, who was a great defensive player, but never a good offensive player.

Perhaps I'm being too harsh on him, or seeing what I want to see. Actually, scratch that last one. I really wanted to like Bamba, which is why I watched him play so many times. If you could match Bamba's defense with Ayton's offense, you'd really have something.

Kingster · Jun 2, 2018

John Galt said:

If the second Bogi can shoot as well as the first Bogi then it could be very good. If not, not so good. This team has Fox, Bogs, Buddy and Skal, all of whom hit game winners last year. In my opinion, the biggest need of this team is a high dose of lengthy athleticism that can grab rebounds, get loose balls, and make life hell for the other team on D with quickness, length, and strength. The one word that comes to mind is physicallity. The Kings are woeful in physicallity. That's probably why when we did see Sampson play in some games last year it was like giving water to a Saraha desert survivor.

Kingster · Jun 2, 2018

gunks said:

I'm still on the Skal train. He has a very good shooting touch for a 6'11" guy. I'd give him until 2019-20 to give him his Final Exam. Very tall thin guys like him take time. I just hope he works with a personal trainer over the summer like a mad-man to get his core considerably stronger.

Joshoua · Jun 2, 2018

bajaden said:

I'm curious about your opinion on Bamba. I'm trying to figure out what I'm missing that your seeing. I watched him play in over 20 games and I came away with the same opinion every time. Great shotblocker, and good but not great rebounder. I think the rebounding will improve with added strength. Good post defender at times, but he also got moved around by smaller players at times, and bit on ball fakes a little too often. On the perimeter he certainly put out the effort, but couldn't keep talented quick ballhandlers in front of him. But he did pursue well when beaten, and managed many blocks from behind.

Offensively, in the high post, he was worthless and seemed to have no feel for the game. Now I grant you that maybe it's the first time in his life he's been asked to play there, but in the few times he out there, he failed to make simple reads. In the post, when asked to post up, he mostly struggled when up against a player his own size, and even when against a smaller player, he struggled if he was further than 3 feet from the basket. I saw him throw up some ridiculous shots. I know many want to compare him to Gobert, but to be honest, he reminds me of a more fluid Mutombo, who was a great defensive player, but never a good offensive player.

Perhaps I'm being too harsh on him, or seeing what I want to see. Actually, scratch that last one. I really wanted to like Bamba, which is why I watched him play so many times. If you could match Bamba's defense with Ayton's offense, you'd really have something.

Ya I don’t see it with Bamba and I tried I’d take Carter over him

sactowndog · Jun 2, 2018

funkykingston said:

Interesting.....

I think these points may apply even more to Luca (but 3/4) whose wingspan isn’t even listed anywhere..

The problem is that he is not a five on the defensive end of the floor. He’s not a rim protector by any means, and his relatively short wingspan coupled with the fact that his skinny frame makes it easy to overpower him in the paint makes it hard to figure how he can defend that position at the next level.

As the saying goes, you are the position you can guard, so what should NBA teams do with a top four pick that plays the five but will have to guard fours?

bajaden · Jun 2, 2018

Kingster said:

I don't want to inflate how good Giles might be, but if he's back to full health, then he might be exactly what your looking for. I don't know if you've seen much of Giles, but he plays with serious attitude. He has a bit of a mean streak in him and won't be pushed around by anyone. So as a result, he's a physical player, a very very good rebounder, and he has a great motor. Not that adding another player of similar ilk would be a bad thing. Draft Bagley, and along with Giles and Willie, you would have a very athletic front court that can get up and down the court.

bajaden · Jun 2, 2018

Kingster said:

I'm sure that Skal is working out as I write this. His career depends on getting stronger, and adding some attitude to his game. He plays too nice at times, and he also defers when he shouldn't at times. When he has the open shot, he needs to take the open shot. If he misses, then he misses, but take the dam shot. I'd be lying if I didn't say I was disappointed last season.

But like you, I'm willing to give him another season to show he's worth keeping around. He doesn't have to have a breakout year, but he does have to show he's an NBA player with growth left. He needs to grab a role on the team and not let go of it. I still have high hopes! Hey, the would be a catchy title for a song!

KingsSelecao · Jun 2, 2018

John Galt said:

The problem I See. No Alpha Dog scorer. Not 1. Giles is a question mark to begin with. Yet, you pencil him as Day 1 starter.
Ain’t happening. Randle will slow this offense to a drip. Joerger would love it. Like Zbo jr in the lineup. Who are the 3 big scoring threats in that lineup? Curious. Luke does not have a good shooting percentage. Let alone the 3 ball. Fox is not a proven scorer. It’s nice to dream and speculate. But, I don’t see a single player that scares a defense. Not 1. I will give you Bogi and Hield off the Bench. Neither have the talent to put the team on their back. Every single team needs that primary scorer. I don’t care if it’s the Spurs, Dubs, Jazz, Rockets, Philly, Celts, etc. every single playoff team needs at least 1 monster scorer. It’s a fact.

bajaden · Jun 2, 2018

sactowndog said:

Well personally I've never thought of Bagley as a five. I've always looked at him as a four. Obviously he'll have to expand his game to play the four in todays NBA, but I see no reason why he couldn't. To me his comp is someone like LaMarcus Aldridge or Anthony Davis. Now I realize that those two players have more skill away from the basket, but that's the type of player I see Bagley becoming. But in the meantime, while he's progressing, he can be a super, taller version of Kenneth Faried or play a similar role as Capela.

Ozymandias · Jun 2, 2018

bajaden said:

I think he's raw but has truly incredible potential and near limitless room for improvement, i think he can ma'ke marked improvements to his game for a long time.. I think Mo's skillset is much more valuable than people care to admit. I think he's the best shot blocker we'll see in quite some time.

He runs so fluidly too. Broadshoulders will fill out nicely by the time he's in his 2nd contract. He's a surefire matchup nightmare.

He can shoot, manyyears back all he wanted to do was shoot 15 footers...

He's gonna end up a major force on the boards. He can get his hands on all sorts of offensive rebounds.

Mo's safe time will prove it.. Rudy Gobert was 21 and far from ready at that draft. It takes big guys like that some extra years for their full coordination tokick in, Mo will improve his shotblocking with his offhand.

bajaden · Jun 2, 2018

Ozymandias said:

I don't disagree with much of what you said. Funny, if he had been in last years class, he certainly would have been under consideration for the first pick in the draft, but this year, with so many talented big men, he's sort of getting lost in the shuffle a bit. I think he's a better athlete than Gobert and he could eventually be a much better offensive player than Gobert. My concern for the Kings is of course the time factor, and fit. I don't deny his talent.

sactowndog · Jun 2, 2018

bajaden said:

I agree the problem is who is going to stretch the floor. Bagley’s free throw shooting is worrisome for his outside shooting.

That’s one reason that Porter may be the best fit though not necessarily the best pick.

kingsboi · Jun 2, 2018

sactowndog said:

after a number of draft blunders, have we not learned anything about drafting for fit over talent?

jiimbob · Jun 2, 2018

Good article funkykingston posted on Bagley. Now I'm wishing we had the 1st pick and just simply draft Ayton.

sactowndog · Jun 2, 2018

KingsSelecao said:

I think one of the reasons Bogi and Buddy didn’t score more is our bigs rarely kicked the ball out for open 3’s. Far too often Bogi would give up the ball and it never came back.

Giles is a very good and willing passer that will get touches in the paint and kick the ball out. I think you will see improved shooting from both Buddy and Bogi.

The BB’s are going to sting.

sactowndog · Jun 2, 2018

kingsboi said:

Which was why I said but not the best pick.

Suicide King · Jun 2, 2018

bajaden said:

9 out of 10 times I agree wholeheartedly. With the second pick in a good draft, I think you have to leave room for an adjustment at least.

I know this is the Bagley thread, and I am not trying to derail it. I have stated already elsewhere I am a big believer in Bamba being a truly special player. I also have stated I really get excited thinking about Luka being added as our 3. I am 50/50 on the pair. I am obviously not privy to Giles' progress over this past season, nor the free agent targets Vlade and crew have in mind. I would need to know these things before committing to either. I don't think I have seen you post definitively who you want us to take if Ayton is gone. You know I agree with your posts more often than not, and respect your opinion.

As for the Spurs, Pop indeed has made constant adjustments to his teams' play style, just over the course of 20 years or so. He is not afraid of adapting to trends. The biggest reason I agreed with @Livinthedream was the point about being the team setting the trends, rather than playing catchup a half decade behind the current dominant playstyle of the league. I also really believe a player like Bamba would work just fine in an uptempo, ball movement oriented offense while providing top of the league level defense in the paint. After all, without a defensive stop, you get very few opportunities to run a fast break.

Mike · Jun 3, 2018

kingsboi said:

Fit does come into it to a certain extent, but in our case it shouldn't be a major problem. If we view Fox, Bogdanovic and Willie as long term starters, the only prospect from the so-called top seven that wouldn't fit is Young. Everyone else does fit: Porter can play SF or PF, Bagley can play PF, JJJ can play PF or C, Ayton and Bamba can play C with Willie moving to PF, and Doncic can play SF.

In our case it comes down to which prospect we feel has the most upside but in regards to fit Bagley is perhaps not the most ideal to pair with Willie because neither offer much in the way of shot blocking. So perhaps fit wise JJJ is better because he can block shots and offer floor spacing which makes up for two deficiencies in Willie's game. Bagley and JJJ both have tremendous upside but one is potentially a better fit so that could be our logic in going for JJJ over Bagley. However, I am a Bagley fan and would take him and worry about shot blocking at a later date.

Now I do agree with you that we should draft BPA over fit, but with high upside prospects available at 2 we can pick a prospect that fits with what we've got if we intend to build long term with what we've got.

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