Marvin Bagley III
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Coming out of HS, the book on Porter Jr. is very similar to Durant. A SF who is tall, long and a very good athlete. Can shoot from anywhere on the floor. Has decent handles, but needs to improve that area for the NBA. Is an excellent rebounder, an average defender and greatly needs to work on getting stronger.
I was comparing the body shape as Blob referred to chicken legs. Porter's body shape and chicken legs are pretty darn similar to Durant's body shape and legs but that hasn't stopped Durant from being a perennial all-star and mvp in the league.
I was in no way comparing the skill level or their games but people always love to draw conclusions by jumping on shadows.
I was in no way comparing the skill level or their games but people always love to draw conclusions by jumping on shadows.
Because returning to school against inferior competition and developing genuine confidence and skillset is what is in his best interest as a person and a player. He's not ready for the pros. He's going to average 6 PPG on 35% and 8 PER. Guys who jump straight from high school to pros and have success like Kobe and LeBron are the exception to the rule. Unless you are a transcendent talent, you need to have some track record of success against Division 1 competition or else you lack the foundation to go to the next level.
This kid is delusional. And he is in for a rude awakening against a caliber of competition he cannot even fathom. Certainly I do not contest his right to go pro and grab the cash. It is his free market right within the context of the NBA rules. But if he believes in his talent, as he claims to, I think he could actually hurt his earning power. If he goes mid to late lottery the contract he signs will be worth less over the length of the contract than if he were to be say a Top 3 pick in 2019.
For example the 8th pick earns 2.9M and 10.5M over his first three seasons whereas the #2 pick earns 5.2M and 19M over his first three seasons. So if he proves his merit in Missouri and boost his draft stock he actually makes up for that one year of lost earnings and then some by being a higher draft pick. Also he is more productive one year later and better maximizes the odds his player option gets picked up and his next contract is lucrative.
But because he's a bit of a fraud of a player IMHO riding delusional comparisons to KD he wants the payday before he is exposed as bricklaying beanpole. Miles and Mikail Bridges are two guys for example who polished up their skills and refined their games. They are ready for the Big Show. Kudos to the Bridges Bros for spending extra time in school, taking their craft seriously, paying their dues with sweat equity. They are ready. Porter is not. There is no shortcut to success. He's about to find this out.
This kid is delusional. And he is in for a rude awakening against a caliber of competition he cannot even fathom. Certainly I do not contest his right to go pro and grab the cash. It is his free market right within the context of the NBA rules. But if he believes in his talent, as he claims to, I think he could actually hurt his earning power. If he goes mid to late lottery the contract he signs will be worth less over the length of the contract than if he were to be say a Top 3 pick in 2019.
For example the 8th pick earns 2.9M and 10.5M over his first three seasons whereas the #2 pick earns 5.2M and 19M over his first three seasons. So if he proves his merit in Missouri and boost his draft stock he actually makes up for that one year of lost earnings and then some by being a higher draft pick. Also he is more productive one year later and better maximizes the odds his player option gets picked up and his next contract is lucrative.
But because he's a bit of a fraud of a player IMHO riding delusional comparisons to KD he wants the payday before he is exposed as bricklaying beanpole. Miles and Mikail Bridges are two guys for example who polished up their skills and refined their games. They are ready for the Big Show. Kudos to the Bridges Bros for spending extra time in school, taking their craft seriously, paying their dues with sweat equity. They are ready. Porter is not. There is no shortcut to success. He's about to find this out.
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The more I study this draft the less I like it.
But right now (assuming Ayton goes #1) I'd like to see the Kings take Bagley at #2.
He's an odd fit in the modern NBA but also probably the most talented prospect so I think you grab him and figure it out.
Doncic is safe and an easier fit but I think there's a much lower chance of him being a star in the NBA.
But right now (assuming Ayton goes #1) I'd like to see the Kings take Bagley at #2.
He's an odd fit in the modern NBA but also probably the most talented prospect so I think you grab him and figure it out.
Doncic is safe and an easier fit but I think there's a much lower chance of him being a star in the NBA.
I really like this draft in terms of getting a good starter. There's six different players that I think are good enough to start for us and be productive sooner than later. Getting an all star is another subject altogether though, each of these guys has some major question marks that effect their upside.
I'm still undecided between Bagley or Jackson Jr. On draft day I'll probably look over the table to see what Vivek wants to do.
With Bagley we have the chance to add a #1 scoring option, a potential 25 PPG player. No way Jackson can fill that role. Think how Boogie could go coast-to-coast towards the end of tenure with us. Bagley will do that better and faster than Boogie. He has better body control and less body mass to change directions and zig zag through traffic.
Jackson can shoot the spot up, but he's not going to attack close outs like Bagley who can put the ball on the floor and weave through traffic with the Euro step. Jackson is nice how he can block shots with his left hand and long reach. But he makes 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes compared to Bagley 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes. So for all those shot blocks Jackson is going for he is committing a lot of fouls sending the opponent to the FT line.
WIth Bagley's agility and motor, I anticipate he will become an above average perimeter defender. He will be able to switch out onto wings and guards and rotate back into the paint. He's not going to be the shot blocking presence of Jackson, but he will challenge shots with his quick leaping and positional awareness.
With Jackson's defensive acumen and length, you would expect he would have the higher rebound rate. It wasn't close. Jackson 10.6 rebounds per 40 MPG. Marvin 13.1 rebounds per 40 MPG. Marvin's quick reaction time and relentlessness to go after his own miss and rebound outside his area compensate for his shorter wingspan.
I also think Bagley will be comfortable all over the floor. This is what I like about Doncic, he can run the point and also go into the paint and battle with the bigs. With Bagley I see him as guy you can run offense through high post mid post and low post. Jackson is not this versatile.
Shot blocking is overrated. What is more important is eliminating easy shots at the rim through sturdy presence, crowding the shot attempt to force the miss. This is how a guy like PJ Tucker and Draymond helped their teams to WCF. There is no reason to think a guy like Bagley or Harry Giles for that matter can fill this role. Until we see enough evidence to the contrary, as the case with Willie, I say give the aspirant the benefit of the doubt.
In sum, Bagley outclasses Jackson as an offensive player more than Jackson outclasses Bagley as a defender. I love a guy who can swat a shot into the third row as much as any guy, but choice between the two prospects is not that tough from my perspective.
I'm not sure if the rebounding discrepancy is as big as the stats make it look.
Bagley's defensive rebounding rate per40 is about a half rebound more than JJJ's.
What separates him is his offensive rebounding whee he nabs 2 more per40 than JJJ does.
We all love offensive rebounds but sometimes they can be a misleading stat. Bagley can be very Moses Malone like and get himself a quick 2 offensive rebounds on one possession by missing his own put backs. As I'm sure you know, a player who just tips it in the first time is credited with 1 offensive rebound while a player that keeps missing and tipping can get 2-3 rebounds. In the end, the possession still ended with 2 points and the extra rebounds didn't do anything more than the original 1 rebound did as far as effect on the game goes.
Couple that with JJJ spreading the floor and not being in as good of rebounding position as Bagley who is parked near the hoop the majority of the time and the rebounding discrepancy starts to narrow a bit. I'm not saying JJJ is equal to or a better rebounding than Bagley but the difference might not be as big as the stats look when taken into context.
Bagley's defensive rebounding rate per40 is about a half rebound more than JJJ's.
What separates him is his offensive rebounding whee he nabs 2 more per40 than JJJ does.
We all love offensive rebounds but sometimes they can be a misleading stat. Bagley can be very Moses Malone like and get himself a quick 2 offensive rebounds on one possession by missing his own put backs. As I'm sure you know, a player who just tips it in the first time is credited with 1 offensive rebound while a player that keeps missing and tipping can get 2-3 rebounds. In the end, the possession still ended with 2 points and the extra rebounds didn't do anything more than the original 1 rebound did as far as effect on the game goes.
Couple that with JJJ spreading the floor and not being in as good of rebounding position as Bagley who is parked near the hoop the majority of the time and the rebounding discrepancy starts to narrow a bit. I'm not saying JJJ is equal to or a better rebounding than Bagley but the difference might not be as big as the stats look when taken into context.
One of my main issues with Jackson Jr. is his shot form. He has almost a Shawn Marion or Joakim Noah type of low release and he would sometimes struggle to get it off when guarded closely. If he is going to be mostly an outside big man he'll have to learn how to shoot off the dribble if he is to be anything more than a spot shooter. He also doesn't seem to have great touch around the basket but does have interesting potential as a slasher on straight line drives.
I agree with you offensive rebounding numbers can be deceptive if you are tapping to yourself. But it speaks to a relentless approach and willingness to fight and not quit on plays. It shows an ability to be aggressive without fouling and finishing plays. This is the type of guy more inclined to get deflections, dive to the floor, get back on D and fill the lane on the break.
Bagley defensive rebound rate is 21.5% (with offensive rebound rate of 14%). Jackson's defensive rebound rate is 17.7% (offensive rebound of 9%). Bagley played 33.8 MPG compared to 21.8 MPG for Jackson due to foul trouble. You can't even say if JJJs modest rebound rate would hold over extended minutes because first he would have to stay out of foul trouble long enough to collect those modest number of boards.
For context Willie had a 22% of defensive rebound rate, a guy criticized for not being strong on the glass. Skal had a 18.1% rebound rate, hurt by sporadic playing time (like JJJ). Koufos had excellent 27.6% rate. Boogie over his career averaged very good 28.3% defensive rebound rate (and 10% offensive rebound career).
When you put their rebounding performance into this context, Bagley was average on the defensive glass. JJJ rebound numbers are poor for any big and alarmingly poor given his extraordinary physical profile. This reflects average to poor reaction time, anticipation and ability to stay on the floor without fouling.
And for final comparison, Ayton had a defensive rebound rate of 28.2% and 13.5% on the offensive glass. Beast! Bamba was impressive too with a 28.2% defensive rebound rate (identical to Ayton) and 12.2% on the offensive glass.
EDIT: One final point to consider is Bagley's 21.5% rebound rate was likely suppressed playing next to Top 10 prospect in Wendell Carter, who had a 23.2% defensive rebound rate.
Bagley defensive rebound rate is 21.5% (with offensive rebound rate of 14%). Jackson's defensive rebound rate is 17.7% (offensive rebound of 9%). Bagley played 33.8 MPG compared to 21.8 MPG for Jackson due to foul trouble. You can't even say if JJJs modest rebound rate would hold over extended minutes because first he would have to stay out of foul trouble long enough to collect those modest number of boards.
For context Willie had a 22% of defensive rebound rate, a guy criticized for not being strong on the glass. Skal had a 18.1% rebound rate, hurt by sporadic playing time (like JJJ). Koufos had excellent 27.6% rate. Boogie over his career averaged very good 28.3% defensive rebound rate (and 10% offensive rebound career).
When you put their rebounding performance into this context, Bagley was average on the defensive glass. JJJ rebound numbers are poor for any big and alarmingly poor given his extraordinary physical profile. This reflects average to poor reaction time, anticipation and ability to stay on the floor without fouling.
And for final comparison, Ayton had a defensive rebound rate of 28.2% and 13.5% on the offensive glass. Beast! Bamba was impressive too with a 28.2% defensive rebound rate (identical to Ayton) and 12.2% on the offensive glass.
EDIT: One final point to consider is Bagley's 21.5% rebound rate was likely suppressed playing next to Top 10 prospect in Wendell Carter, who had a 23.2% defensive rebound rate.
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