Luka Doncic

Blob · Dec 30, 2017

A lot.

He has a loose dribble. He turns it over palm under the ball. Bad habit. That's a carry or going to get picked.

He also jumps in the air and then passes. He's not going to get away with that in the NBA.

He also backs down his man with 3-4 dribbles. You can't do that in the NBA. The defense will collapse on you or the defender will not be so pliant.

Being a very good shooter and passer helps to compensate for limited athleticism and bad tendencies but the latter variables limit your upside.

I am not trashing the guy I just don't see him as hopping off the screen saying "pick me pick me". He's very good. But I like De'Aaron Fox better.

Blob · Dec 30, 2017

Hallama said:

Trae Young weighs 150 pounds soaking wet. Frank Mason would destroy him and hold him to 1-11 FGs on the other end.

Unless Trae Young fills out to 175-180 pounds he's the perfect college player and fools gold at the NBA level.

Telemachus · Dec 30, 2017

Blob said:

Young is 6'2, 180 lbs.

hrdboild · Jan 1, 2018

Blob said:

I love Miles Bridges but he's not anywhere close to James Harden as a player. He can go over or through people on his way to the basket or he can catch and shoot but he's not tap dancing around defenders, baiting them with fakes and then drilling a step back, and just generally making them look silly with ball wizardry. Now you could argue (rightly) that James Harden didn't really do that in college either but he did consistently get to the line which is an area where Bridges struggles (8.6 fta/40 for Harden, 3.3 fta/40 for Bridges). And that speaks to his ability to get defenders off balance and play to contact. Bridges may be closer to Harden in body type but their games couldn't be more different really. I do agree with you that Ayton is having a remarkable run so far at Arizona. And Ayton has already been my guy in this draft for the last two years so it means a lot for me to put anyone else up there on his level but that's how much Doncic has won me over. I think you're selling him way short in your assessment. This is an 18 year old kid throwing up near triple doubles in the Euroleague. That's unprecedented and it exceeds anything Ayton has accomplished so far at Arizona. I think you should take a little bit more time to see if you can figure out how he's doing that because it's not just a matter of getting away with sloppy play against inferior competition.

hrdboild · Jan 1, 2018

To answer your question more directly though, what's all the fuss about? Here's the best answer I've got: It's the Willie Cauley-Stein problem in reverse. WCS is an athletic freak and that allows him to do things on a basketball court that most of us could never dream of doing. But if he's such an amazing athlete, how come he isn't producing like one? My answer to that has always been that he doesn't seem to have a lot of awareness of where he is on the court and what the opponent is trying to do. Sure if someone takes the ball straight at him he's going to block it but great players are smarter than that. You can't just be out there and expect things to happen for you, you actually have to be the one making things happen. Which is just another way of saying that athleticism isn't everything in basketball. You could fill an arena with all the world class athletes who got over drafted and failed to last past their rookie contract. And even more that clogged up rosters for years consistently disappointing fans who expect this year to be the breakout year. In the end all that really matters is "can you play the game".

And I underestimated Harden coming out of college because he didn't look physically dominant to me. I wrote him off as a volume shooter and continued to until last year when he suddenly added double digit assists to his game while scoring even more and I had to scratch my head and figure out what I missed. Same with Steph Curry, the baby-faced shooter who's roughly the same size and weight as I am and I can tell you that nobody has ever confused me with a professional athlete. What I missed then that I'm determined not to miss again is that you can't break everyone down to physical dimensions and see how they compare. If somebody is consistently succeeding there's probably a reason for that. With Curry it's that his range is really unlimited and his ball-handling skills are just as good as his shooting ability. He gets any shot whenever he wants and the only reason they don't all go in is because 5 other players on the court and an entire coaching staff that supports them are staying up all night trying to figure out anything they can do to mess up his rhythm. Harden is the laziest great player I've ever seen (and that includes Tracy McGrady). His whole philosophy seems to be "why run when you can walk"? And it really freaking works! Everyone is trying to stop him at 100mph while he skates around at 20mph watching them slip around like they're playing on ice. It's a mistake to think his game is built around strength. It's not bully ball. He's got so many moves that nobody knows where he's going next but him and he uses that misdirection to get guys off balance and then slide into the space they vacated just long enough to drop a bounce pass, take a stepback, move toward the rim and draw a foul, the list goes on...

And that's what I see in Doncic too. He's not the fastest player on the floor or the strongest or the tallest or the toughest but he's clearly the smartest and it's not even close. He's got basketball instincts that haven't even been invented yet. And yeah you're right, instinct alone isn't going to make you a star in the NBA. But a 6'8" ballhandler who can create separation as easily as you and I can tie our shoes? That's something. What's that, he's also leading the entire league in free throw attempts? Hmm, getting warmer. Oh and he's a willing passer who dribbles with his head up looking for open teammates? That sounds to me like the exact prototype of what every team in the league is looking for right now. Who cares about how pretty he looks doing it, the guy just plain gets results over and over again. You're telling me he doesn't look very fast with the ball and I'm telling you to watch the way he crosses it over mid stride and keeps driving it downhill even with a defender in his face. You're telling me he's going to struggle against NBA athletes like Ball has (hey, I was very critical of Ball too but for a different reason -- I don't think he's aggressive enough to be anything more than a taller Ricky Rubio and his shot is equally broken, you just had to know those college shooting stats were a mirage with that funky side-slinger release) and I'm telling you his stepback is just as lethal as James Harden's minus the range perhaps but then it took Harden about 5 years before he could consistently hit his from three point range anyway. Do you need strength if they can't even touch you? I think he's strong enough with his handle to make guys miss and that's all that matters. You're telling me he's a slightly above average "heady" euro prospect and I'm saying look closer. There's a reason this guy is being talked about as a first overall pick and it's not just follow the leader.

(Sorry about the double post... I took too long and ran into a posting error)

sactowndog · Jan 1, 2018

206Fan said:

I’m not sure Fox complements anyone on the team right now. The kid has to learn how to run an offense and get the ball to people in the right spots.

sactowndog · Jan 1, 2018

Blob said:

I think Doncic would fit in well with the Kings because he has such a high IQ and never misses open players. If you think Willie gets lots of good shots with Bogdan on the floor imagine Bogdan on one side and Doncic on the other. If Fox can develop a jump shoot and get bigger to defend a Fox, Bogdan, Doncic, Giles, WCS line-up would be tough to defend because the ball would move so well.

We need wings that can shoot and Doncic tops the list.

Hansel · Jan 1, 2018

Blob said:

It's really difficult for me to answer without laughing, come on!
From your post looks like he's playing in the Chinese League and not against the most organized teams in the world.

Joshoua · Jan 1, 2018

sactowndog said:

Doncic Strength makes him a fit for every team in the league. And as much as we love Bogdan he’s literally a poor mans Doncic and both would fit great starting

"The Serbian Sniper" · Jan 1, 2018

He is smarter (in my opinion) than Bogdan, taller, quicker (probably a bit), with better vertical leap, better ball handling, probably better passer, rebounder, stronger (i would say)... and 7 (seven!) years younger! Bogdan is a bit better shooter (but Doncic is improving it year by year), and i'm not sure about defense. Bogdan already proved himself as a good player so far, so what could Doncic become then? In my opinion, superstar potential.

Players in Europe are still young with 23,24 years, because of the tactical priority, it's harder for young guys to prove themselfes. But Doncic is probably the smartest Euroleague player, with only 18...

bajaden · Jan 1, 2018

SacTownKid said:

Have you seen Doncic play, and I don't mean just Youtube highlights, but have you watched several full games? If you had, then I don't think you would be asking some of the questions, or coming to some of your conclusions. In my humble opinion, Doncic will be the best player on the Kings team if we were to be so lucky as to draft him, and It won't even be close. He is one of the most skilled players at his age that I have ever seen. There are times when he reminds me of Pete Maravich and that's as high a compliment as I can give, because Maravich was a magician with the ball. I wouldn't worry about how Doncic fits on the team, I would be more concerned about how the team fits around him, and if it doesn't, then you change it, because he will be the most important player on the team.

No, he's not an elite athlete, but he's by no means a bad athlete. He couldn't have accomplished all the things he has if he wasn't athletic. Think about it for a moment. He is, without a doubt, the best player in Europe, and he's only 18 years old. He's beating up on full grown professionals. Not a bunch of college kids, but men that have been playing professional basketball for years. If we have the chance to draft him, and we pass, then we would be the stupidest franchise in the history of the NBA!!!!!!!!

Joshoua · Jan 1, 2018

bajaden said:

Have you seen Doncic play, and I don't mean just Youtube highlights, but have you watched several full games? If you had, then I don't think you would be asking some of the questions, or coming to some of your conclusions. In my humble opinion, Doncic will be the best player on the Kings team if we were to be so lucky as to draft him, and It won't even be close. He is one of the most skilled players at his age that I have ever seen. There are times when he reminds me of Pete Maravich and that's as high a compliment as I can give, because Maravich was a magician with the ball. I wouldn't worry about how Doncic fits on the team, I would be more concerned about how the team fits around him, and if it doesn't, then you change it, because he will be the most important player on the team.

No, he's not an elite athlete, but he's by no means a bad athlete. He couldn't have accomplished all the things he has if he wasn't athletic. Think about it for a moment. He is, without a doubt, the best player in Europe, and he's only 18 years old. He's beating up on full grown professionals. Not a bunch of college kids, but men that have been playing professional basketball for years. If we have the chance to draft him, and we pass, then we would be the stupidest franchise in the history of the NBA!!!!!!!!

Vlade ain’t passing on Doncic you can book that.

I’m on record Doncic will be a 20-5-5 guy hopefully for us next too Bogdan and Fox

bajaden · Jan 1, 2018

Telemachus said:

The tough big match up for Young was supposed to be Wichita ST, and Landry Shamet their 6'4" PG, considered by many scouts to be the best defensive PG in college. All Young did was lay 29 pts and 10 assists on Shamet. There's no doubt that eventually Young will have to get stronger to play and stay healthy in the NBA, but the idea that you have to look like a full back is pure nonsense. Skills are what gets you into the HOF, not athleticism or muscle mass. If you have both, then your Michael Jordan or Lebron, but those are the exceptions. It's the intangibles that make great players, not jumping high, or running fast. Those things help, but they're not required.

What makes Young so good is that he see's things that others don't see. When he drives into the lane, he always seems to have an outcome in mind, as though he's seeing two plays ahead. But with him, it doesn't require thought, it's instinctive. I don't think you can teach what he has, you can only be amazed by it.

bajaden · Jan 1, 2018

Joshoua said:

Yeah, my last sentence was mean't to be sarcasm, but I agree, there is no way in hell that Vlade would pass on Doncic.

206Fan · Jan 1, 2018

bajaden said:

He was responding to someone who said he only weighed 150lbs and because of that, he won't do good in the NBA unless he fills out his frame. Young is probably more around 6'2 165lbs. I agree with your points. Size is one of his biggest problems, but his game is offensive game is focused around his perimeter shooting. Therefor, his lack of strength isn't as big of a hindrance as it was for Fox who's game revolved around down-hill attacking.

SacTownKid · Jan 1, 2018

bajaden said:

Sure have. In fact I watched Real Madrid go up against Bogdans team last year too. And he may well be the most talented player although I do think Fox has a higher level of potential if he can solidify himself as a shooter. It doesn't change a thing because the point was that somebody will suffer compared to their expectation level since the ball will now most likely be out of someones hands more than it would have otherwise. It's not a knock against anyone, especially him. I'm saying that they all have super high ceilings but role dependent for sure.

KingsFanSince85 · Jan 3, 2018

hrdboild said:

Not to derail the thread, but mentioning his name just reminded me how much I've always disliked Harden's game and long for the days when nearly everything he does was whistled as a travel.

We all know the game has changed (f0r better or worse), but I chuckle at thought of Harden being transplanted into the 90's and getting bounced around the lane like a pinball with no whistles (the Harden Rules?? lol). I further chuckle at the thought of what Michael Jordan in his prime could do in today's game. Dude averaged 37 per game during a time when defenses could be ultra physical with him and hand-checking was legal. With today's even looser dribbling standards, lack of contact/hand-checking and emphasis on the 3 pt shot --- OMG. If the Harden's and Curry's of the world can do what they're doing, Jordan would be like Wilt Chamberlain was in his early heyday.

Hansel · Jan 4, 2018

Talking about Doncic, what he has done with his national team goes beyond stat lines and highlights.
Slovenia always had a talented national team and great basketball players, like some Euroleague legends as Erazem Lorbek, Sani Becirovic, Matjaz Smodis or NBA players like Dragic, Udrih, Vujacic.
Slovenia has always been nominated as one of the contenders prior every any European Championship, then after impressive group stages showed a tendency to dissolve in knockout games.
Doncic never played for his national team before Eurobasket 2017 and from day one he was the leader, recognized as a leader by his teammates at 18 years old. Leaving Goran Dragic being himself, a terrific scorer.
Slovenia won the title beating Greece and France in the group stage, Porzingis's Latvia, Gasol brothers' Spain and Serbia in knockout stages.
I'm keeping an eye on Doncic since few years, until last summer I had the impression he was just a really talented player picked up from abroad by Real Madrid with a bright future in front of him, same as Nikola Mirotic.
I was wrong, this kid is the real deal.

hrdboild · Jan 4, 2018

KingsFanSince85 said:

I couldn't agree more! I couldn't stand James Harden for years for the exact same reason. I don't like how he excuses himself from playing defense and then relies on refs to get him a huge chunk of his points on dubious borderline calls that he oversells consistently without penalty. It's infuriating to watch. However, I have to admit that what he's doing works and now that he's opened up his game as a play maker not just a scorer he's impacting the game on offense more than any other player this season including Lebron and Steph. I fondly remember the smash mouth basketball that worked so well in the 90s and early 2000s and tend to prefer gritty in-your-face defenders who force physical mismatches as a result, but the league has changed a lot since then. We're probably not ever going to see a team that holds it's opponents to under 70 points a game again in this current golden age of three point shooting and that also means speed, reaction time, wingspan, and smart team defense are all more important now than raw strength and athleticism. I have a grudging respect for Harden's game now and I've had to change the way I evaluate prospects as it's become increasingly clear that the game I grew up watching is probably not ever going to come back. This must be what it felt like when basketball first changed from a game of passing and shooting to high-flying above the rim athleticism. I don't want to be the cranky old guy clinging to a past that's not coming back anymore.

And trying to direct this back on topic a bit, a world in which James Harden is the MVP front funner is a world in which Luka Doncic is not just a solid prospect but a superstar in the making. From everything I've seen I think he fits the current state of the game like a glove. The big caveat with him is going to be "but what about defense" and I just don't think that matters the way it used to. Shooters coming off screens aren't going to be defended individually they're going to be out-schemed by a net of quick rotating players and that makes awareness and anticipation so much more important than physical ability.

Blob · Jan 5, 2018

Telemachus said:

I am 6'1 and 175-180 pounds. There is NO way that Young is 180 pounds. You have got to be kidding me. You have to realize there is an incentive to fudge on these numbers to improve his draft stock while he works to add weight and muscle. This guy is a stick 150 to 160 lbs tops. Regardless he is a HARD PASS for our Kings no matter where we end up.

De'Andre Ayton is the guy we should be targeting and there is NO prospect in vicinity to his potential dominance. Although I do like Mo Bamba!

Blob · Jan 5, 2018

bajaden said:

I appreciate that you have the strength of your convictions and express them accordingly because so often I debate with waffling fence straddlers but you could not be more wrong in this instance. Ayton is leaps and bounds the superior prospect. It is NOT even close. Again don't believe me just wait and see. Doncic has a beautiful shot and this makes up for a lot of deficiencies as we have seen with the case of Jason Tatum but you still have to create separation to launch that beautiful shot. You still have to keep guys in front of you. You can NOT show your dribble like Doncic does against NBA players and expect to keep the ball.

Doncic is a NICE prospect. Even I will say very nice. Ayton is a transcendent talent. That's exponentially more than nice. If you cannot see this as clear as the nose on your face, I don't know what else to say.

Blob · Jan 5, 2018

bajaden said:

Well he traded the best talent in franchise history for peanuts gave Scrub Hill $40 million guaranteed and chose Willie over Turner among other blunders so saying there is "no way hell he would pass on Doncic" says nothing other than he would make ANOTHER mistake in a line of mistakes with no definitive end.

Blob · Jan 5, 2018

hrdboild said:

I will continue to scout the kid and adjust my assessment accordingly. I am not fixed to an opinion if contrary evidence presents itself.

For example I like that Trae Young slithers his way to the basket and launches a near perfect jumper with unlimited range. But when you are diminutive in stature you better be elite in terms of quickness or strength and I don't see either with him.

It is easy to get deceived by production against inferior competition and favorable circumstances. This is what happened with Lonzo Bust. Where are the fans who admit they overestimated this kid? I have NOT heard from one fan confess they overestimated this guy as the next dominant PG. Crickets are louder than the Lonzo fan boys from 6-12 months ago. If the 2017 draft were held again he'd be lucky to go Top 20.

A similar situation occurred with Porzingis vs Okafor. I remember declaring that Porzingis was the FAR SUPERIOR prospect to Okafor. Can you imagine if the 76er picked Porzingis over Okafor and teamed him up with Embiid. Wow! That'd be quite the duo. But the general consensus was Okafor was all that. No he wasn't!!! Same goes for Doncic as was that case with L Bust.

I was half-interested in the Arizona game vs Utah last night. His teammates were NOT giving him the ball. They were running NO plays for him. Then I switch over and he finishes with 24 points and 14 rebounds!!!! Unbelievable. I cannot emphasize how great this kid is. ALL Kings fans should pray for the tank. This team under this coach is going nowhere. This team is worst in OFF and DEF efficiency. They are HISTORICALLY bad. We may as well cash in on this ineptitude and be rewarded with the BEST prospect since LeBron.

This is not just my opinion. It is common sense and consensus of every sober NBA scout not adding Baileys Irish Cream to their morning coffee.

KingsFanSince85 · Jan 5, 2018

hrdboild said:

I wouldn't dare to disagree that it works. Still hate it though. But only works to a degree considering that a Harden led team hasn't accomplished much during the postseason. 1st round losers 3 of the past 5 seasons.

hrdboild said:

Don't mistake me, I'm not much of a fan of the Hardcastle and McCormick over-the-top physical style of the mid-90's. That's no more basketball than what we have today. I'm more of a Magic/Bird 80's era and late 90's/early 2000's era guy. I think those eras have a good mix of both skill and physicality.

Of course our Kings spearheaded the end of the 90's ridiculousness and ushered in about an 8-10 year period of good basketball before the NBA powers that be decided that they had to make it far too easy to score so ALL teams, no matter the talent level, could look like the Kings, Mavs, Lakers and Suns. Now we're at the opposite end of the spectrum we were at during the Pistons/Knicks/Bulls slugfests. I wish they'd reel it back in a bit.

Push back the 3pt line, stop allowing the excessive carrying/traveling and bring back the hand-check. It won't ever happen, but one can certainly dream.

KingsFanSince85 · Jan 5, 2018

hrdboild said:

I haven't seen much of Doncic other than a few highlights here and there. But it's obvious he has quite a few fans on this board and in this thread. Hopefully the analysis on him is spot on, especially if he becomes a King.

Telemachus · Jan 5, 2018

KingsFanSince85 said:

I follow a lot of scouts and talent evaluators on twitter (and podcasts), and I can't think of one that doesn't have Doncic #l on their boards. Most have him as tier 1 with the rest starting tier 2.

Joshoua · Jan 5, 2018

Blob said:

I appreciate that you have the strength of your convictions and express them accordingly because so often I debate with waffling fence straddlers but you could not be more wrong in this instance. Ayton is leaps and bounds the superior prospect. It is NOT even close. Again don't believe me just wait and see. Doncic has a beautiful shot and this makes up for a lot of deficiencies as we have seen with the case of Jason Tatum but you still have to create separation to launch that beautiful shot. You still have to keep guys in front of you. You can NOT show your dribble like Doncic does against NBA players and expect to keep the ball.

Doncic is a NICE prospect. Even I will say very nice. Ayton is a transcendent talent. That's exponentially more than nice. If you cannot see this as clear as the nose on your face, I don't know what else to say.

What does Ayton do that makes him transcendent. Dude is creating post up points and doing dream shakes like Embiid was at Kansas

KingsFanSince85 · Jan 6, 2018

Telemachus said:

Well, that pretty much eliminates the possibility that he'll be a King. We've never landed #1 in a meaningful draft.

Telemachus · Jan 6, 2018

KingsFanSince85 said:

Obviously, teams have their own boards. I am sure some will have others higher, but most probably won't.

Joshoua · Jan 6, 2018

KingsFanSince85 said:

Nba still owes us one for the 2002 WCF

Luka Doncic

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Moloch in whom I dream Angels!

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!

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Moloch in whom I dream Angels!

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