The closer we get to draft night, the less excited I am about Isaac and Tatum at #5. I just don't have a good feeling about either one. Tatum is the classic jack of all trades master of none wing for me. He's got good size and a go-to mid-post turnaround jumper but what else suggests he'll develop into a leading scorer? I see his best-case scenario somewhere around Tobias Harris level which is a nice player but not someone you build your team around. And Isaac scares me even more. I think people look at his size and his ball skills and get a little starry eyed talking about potential but how many times have we already been fooled by these stick-thin combo forwards with "next KD" hype in the past? Remember Perry Jones and Quincy Miller? Isaac looks good statistically and he checks all the boxes for people who think defense is more about wingspan and foot speed than strength, intelligence, and anticipation but we don't even really know who he is yet as a player. Almost every year I talk myself into some super long bouncy wing prospect and they go nowhere. He might be a star, he might be Marvin Williams. I can't tell and that's what scares me. And while I still think Dennis Smith Jr. has got a great chance to be an All-Star in the NBA he's more likely to be a Damian Lillard type of scoring point than an all-around team leader. I don't think we want to lock ourselves into years of mediocrity like Portland has by committing to a core group of players who don't put in enough effort on defense.
So where does that leave us? Fultz is off the board in the top 4 for sure. Hopefully Ball is too. He'd be fun to watch for 4 years but then what? If De'Aaron Fox and Josh Jackson both go 3/4 as expected (or the Lakers take one of them and Philly/Phoenix clean up the rest) we're looking at a situation where I don't really want any of the consensus best players on the board (Tatum, Isaac, Smith, Monk). Almost every year we see players penciled into the lottery because that's where everyone else has them who are mediocre at best in the league while players picked much later become stars. Who wants anything to do with Jahlil Okafor now? Does anyone still think Dante Exum or Marcus Smart are going to be All-Stars? Remember when Ben McLemore was briefly ranked as the best player in the 2013 draft? I really don't want this to be us (again). So if that's the situation I'm passing on all of them right now and taking Frank Ntilikina at #5. My primary goal in the draft is to swing for the fences and I think Frank is the only guy left up there who fits all of my criteria: (1) Is he already a difference maker on defense? Yes. (2) Can he develop into a two-way star if he maxes out his potential? Yes. (3) Does he fit the direction of the team? He can play on the ball or off the ball, he can shoot from outside, and he's an active pest on defense with the potential to guard all three perimeter positions. I'd say that's a yes.
Realistically speaking, we're a long way from competing. We can afford to take one of the youngest players in the draft and bring him along slowly. I also feel like we're relatively safe picking him over somebody like Smith, Tatum, or Isaac because if those guys don't reach their potential they're wasted picks. Smith becomes a black hole on offense who gets his points but doesn't help the team win. Tatum becomes a low-efficiency volume scorer who teases with good defensive effort every 5th game or so. Isaac can't get off the bench behind Skal and plateaus as a Donte Greene level tease. What's the worst-case for Ntilikina? Well I suppose he could stay overseas, but assuming that's not a problem his worst case is probably a rotational wing with Nic Batum size and 3 and D skills. That's still a valuable player to have in your rotation. I've been conditioned to hope for the best but expect the worst in the draft and by this criteria Ntilikina doesn't look like a big reach at #5. Honestly, weren't we all hyped up about Isaac and Tatum mostly because they fit a position of need anyway? Every year there's at least one top wing worth drafting. If Miles Bridges had stayed in the draft the situation would be different, but as it is I'm more concerned that we get this one pick right instead of trying to package two perfect picks in a row.
