Current Team Discussion and Possible Trades

[CelticsFan]

That's not exactly true: whether or not it could happen is contingent on a set of circumstances that are not actually within the team's control.

Sorry to disagree but yes it's true it's how the NBA restricted free agency works. Teams are allowed to match the contract offers from other teams.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Sorry to disagree but yes it's true it's how the NBA restricted free agency works. Teams are allowed to match the contract offers from other teams.

I know how restricted free agency works. But that's still contingent upon the player actually signing an offer sheet; Restricted Free Agents aren't compelled to do that.

Sure, it's within the team's control to match an offer sheet, but what if the player doesn't sign one? What if they do what Monroe did, and take the Qualifying Offer, to become an Unrestricted Free Agent the following year? That's why I said that it's contingent on a set of circumstances that are not actually within the team's control.

If we trade for Smart, we're only "guaranteed" to have Smart for two years longer than we would have had Gay; I'm not convinced that Smart will have validated such a hypothetical trade within that span of time.

 

[CelticsFan]

I'm just guessing but I would say less then 3% of RFA do this.

 

[Telemachus]

Here's the thing I don't understand at all. If people here really thought Rudy Gay was worth Jaylen Brown and more... why did the Kings not trade him for the 3rd overall pick at the draft? Did the Celtics all of a sudden get buyers remorse? HIGHLY doubt it.

So if people really think Rudy Gay=Jaylen Brown... why were the Kings not able to straight up trade the 3rd overall pick for Gay?

Maybe because Gay's value isn't that high...

You are making the mistake of thinking that Jalen Brown's value is the same as the 3rd pick in the draft. The pick has more value because the team has the choice of the player they want. The Kings wouldn't have taken Brown. They would have taken Dunn.

 

[CelticsFan]

You are making the mistake of thinking that Jalen Brown's value is the same as the 3rd pick in the draft. The pick has more value because the team has the choice of the player they want. The Kings wouldn't have taken Brown. They would have taken Dunn.

I agree you always want to take your guy rather then another team draftin them.

With that being said what's Big Georges value? Most experts had him as a second round pick. Would you value him as a mid first round pick or a mid second

 

[LPKingsFan]

You are making the mistake of thinking that Jalen Brown's value is the same as the 3rd pick in the draft. The pick has more value because the team has the choice of the player they want. The Kings wouldn't have taken Brown. They would have taken Dunn.

That doesn't change the calculus for the Celtics, though.

If the Celtics wouldn't trade #3 for Rudy Gay, and the Celtics drafted Brown at #3, then the Celtics won't trade Brown for Gay.

Or, if #3 > Gay, and Brown = #3, then Brown > Gay, no? For the Celtics, at least.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I'm just guessing but I would say less then 3% of RFA do this.

Well, Qualifying Offers are generally only extended to first-round picks, so if one in 30 signs one, that'd be mathematically more than three percent.

 

[whozit]

I agree you always want to take your guy rather then another team draftin them.

With that being said what's Big Georges value? Most experts had him as a second round pick. Would you value him as a mid first round pick or a mid second

Probably the same thing your doing with Brown. Hope that your front office had it right. Time will tell.

 

[CelticsFan]

Well, Qualifying Offers are generally only extended to first-round picks, so if one in 30 signs one, that'd be mathematically more than three percent.

Can you help me understand better? Excluding busts and Monroe can you name other RFA's who have done this? Did anyone do this this offseason or last?

 

[Telemachus]

I agree you always want to take your guy rather then another team draftin them.

With that being said what's Big Georges value? Most experts had him as a second round pick. Would you value him as a mid first round pick or a mid second

His value is based on what other teams think he is worth, not where he was drafted. That could change drastically over the next couple of years, based on how he develops.

 

[funkykingston]

What I really want to know is what the asking price was for the Kings to move up to #3 or #4 in the draft to take Dunn.

Vlade stated pretty matter of factly that he felt that it was too high so clearly he had been told by the Celtics and/or Suns what it would take to get their pick.

 

[CelticsFan]

Probably the same thing your doing with Brown. Hope that your front office had it right. Time will tell.

Agree 100%. You don't just trade a guy you value so high that you picked 4 weeks ago for pennies on the dollar

 

[CelticsFan]

What I really want to know is what the asking price was for the Kings to move up to #3 or #4 in the draft to take Dunn.

Vlade stated pretty matter of factly that he felt that it was too high so clearly he had been told by the Celtics and/or Suns what it would take to get their pick.

Do you think if Celtics asked for Gay that would have been too much for the 3rd pick?

 

[Telemachus]

That doesn't change the calculus for the Celtics, though.

If the Celtics wouldn't trade #3 for Rudy Gay, and the Celtics drafted Brown at #3, then the Celtics won't trade Brown for Gay.

Or, if #3 > Gay, and Brown = #3, then Brown > Gay, no? For the Celtics, at least.

That isn't the point from where I'm standing. My point is that the Kings wouldn't that trade. It doesn't make them better as a team and could easily end up making them worse for a couple years.

 

[DHR]

We aren't going to be competitive this season in terms of playoffs. This year fans should see better effort, minimal drama, if any. Cousins will stay if he believes that there is a plan. Getting agreement of what that is on this forum is touch and go, so hopefully there is one and it has already been put into action?

 

[funkykingston]

Do you think if Celtics asked for Gay that would have been too much for the 3rd pick?

I don't think the Celtics have an interest in Rudy Gay. But if they did I think Gay and the #8 would've been a reasonable deal.

What's interesting from the Celtics side of things is that they could have well gotten Jaylen Brown at #8 in that scenario.

PHI - Simmons
LAL - Ingram
SAC - Dunn
PHX - Bender
MIN - Murray
NOP - Hield
DEN - Chriss
BOS - Brown

Maybe it doesn't shake out exactly that way but with the Wolves having Wiggins, the Pelicans desperately needing shooting, and Denver having Chandler, Galinari etc I don't know that any of them would've taken Brown.

This draft was interesting in that after the first two I wouldn't have been surprised to see any of the next six guys taken in pretty much any order.

 

[twslam07]

That's not exactly true: whether or not it could happen is contingent on a set of circumstances that are not actually within the team's control.

The only thing out of our control is if he accepts the qualifying offer which is highly unlikely considering the cap situation right now.

You like to play semantics. I know. It's your 'thing,' but it doesn't change the fact that (statistically speaking) if we want to keep him, we can keep him for 6-7 years.

 

[whozit]

Do you think if Celtics asked for Gay that would have been too much for the 3rd pick?

I suspect, if that was the price, that the Kings would be all over it.

 

[bajaden]

Do you think if Celtics asked for Gay that would have been too much for the 3rd pick?

Yes! If that's all the Kings were getting in return. Brown doesn't equal Gay. In three years maybe he will. No way to know. In three years he may equal Derrick Williams.

 

[CelticsFan]

Yes! If that's all the Kings were getting in return. Brown doesn't equal Gay. In three years maybe he will. No way to know. In three years he may equal Derrick Williams.

So since Simmions and Ingram aren't as good as Gay today those guys would not be a reasonable return for Gay? If this is your logic WCS is only worth a Jason Thompson type player? I disagree with you

 

[twslam07]

Yes! If that's all the Kings were getting in return. Brown doesn't equal Gay. In three years maybe he will. No way to know. In three years he may equal Derrick Williams.

That's not how trades work. It's not always about who is the better player today. It's about value, youth, contract, etc. as well.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Can you help me understand better? Excluding busts and Monroe can you name other RFA's who have done this? Did anyone do this this offseason or last?

Well, technically Eric Bledsoe did, two years ago. And then, Phoenix blinked, and signed him to the 5-year deal. Mo Harkless is expected to do it with Portland this year; no idea whether you consider him a bust or not.

According to this cite, twenty players have actually signed the Qualifying Offer, since it was added to the CBA in 1995. If every eligible player since 1995 had been issued a Qualifying Offer, that would be some mathematical fraction under three percent. However, since we know that not every eligible player is issued a Qualifying Offer (as this cite indicates that only 39 percent of the players who were eligible for a Qualifying Offer actually got one), then that suggests that the percentage of players who were issued a Qualifying Offer and actually took it is, indeed, higher than three percent. I would posit that it might be as high as five.

And anyway, the original thesis is not about how likely it is to happen, but whether the team is in control of it happening. And the team is not in control.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

The only thing out of our control is if he accepts the qualifying offer which is highly unlikely considering the cap situation right now.

You like to play semantics. I know. It's your 'thing,' but it doesn't change the fact that (statistically speaking) if we want to keep him, we can keep him for 6-7 years.

You are using the word "fact" incorrectly. That is not a fact. If we traded Gay for Smart we would only be guaranteed to keep Smart for two years longer than we could have kept Gay. "Statistically speaking," we could keep Gay for 6-7 years, too.

 

[Jkbiker]

So? How does that give him more value in a trade? You're seeing what you want to see and not taking everything into account.

Now wait a minute. Crowder was statistically better than Gay last year at helping a team win. Don't get caught up in iso scoring as the deterrent for who is a better player. Scoring is only one facet of the game.

I would agree that neither is better than Gay (right now), but again, that's a deal that I don't see Boston making. They're giving up too much value adding in Smart. Gay alone is not enough to net Smart let alone adding Johnson into the mix.

How do you know they screwed up the 3rd pick? He hasn't even played a game in the NBA and you are already claiming they screwed up? When can I borrow that crystal ball of yours?

Brown has a lot of potential but he also has a lot he still needs to work on. He started off struggling in summer league, but he looks like he has turned a corner these last 2 games as he has adjusted. Below are his per36 numbers over the last 2 games:

Does he have his faults & weaknesses? Yes, but to speak in such absolutes about a thing (the draft) that is so unpredictable is borderline lunacy.

You can call Rozier a scrub but he's a scrub with value, and like I mentioned in my last post. He's played very well this summer league as well. Why are people so impatient with players that if they aren't contributing in their rookie year they are automatically a scrub or worthless? Sometimes players take time to adjust and find their calling card in the NBA. At least Rozier is showing improvement this year (per36 through 6 summer league games):

If Boston thinks Crowder is better than Gay, why not give Crowder to the clips direct? Because Gay has value to Clips to score points. I agree with you that Jaylen should not be part of this trade( was never part of my proposal) but we need players to produce this year not future potential.
Orig rumor was Crowder for Gay to Clips. Gays value is more as a trade chip to Get Blake. Crowder is a real asset and any PG from Boston (who has too many) is ok.

And as to my comments on Jaylen and Rozier , I dont care about SL stats, maybe they will be great maybe not. But as you say when I take everything into account, I agree with you
"Now would I make the trade? Possibly not because both might not help us win this year and we really need to be competitive to persuade Cousins to stay (and Cousins is definitely a more important asset than Brown & Rozier)."

Sincerely
Your Freindly Lunitic Biker

 

[twslam07]

You are using the word "fact" incorrectly. That is not a fact. If we traded Gay for Smart we would only be guaranteed to keep Smart for two years longer than we could have kept Gay. "Statistically speaking," we could keep Gay for 6-7 years, too.

Keep trying. I applaud the effort.

Statistically speaking, keeping Smart for 6-7 years is far more likely to happen than keeping Gay for 6-7 years. You're flat out wrong if you disagree with that statement.

Besides, I think you're missing the fact that Gay would be 36-37 towards the end. There's also the possibility that he's retired before then. Only tips the scale further in Smart's direction...

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I still haven't gotten anything wrong, though? I didn't say anything about likelihood. I spoke to possibility, not probability.

Are the Celtics (or the Kings, if we trade for him) in control over whether or not Marcus Smart signs the Qualifying Offer? Yes or no?

 

[whozit]

Yes! If that's all the Kings were getting in return. Brown doesn't equal Gay. In three years maybe he will. No way to know. In three years he may equal Derrick Williams.

Since CelticsFan responded already and didn't refute your interpretation of his post I guess I misinterpreted it. I took his post as Gay for the 3rd pick not necessarily for Brown letting the Kings chose whomever they wanted. To me, the third pick before the pick was made was worth Gay, after the fact then ?

 

[funkykingston]

Since CelticsFan responded already and didn't refute your interpretation of his post I guess I misinterpreted it. I took his post as Gay for the 3rd pick not necessarily for Brown letting the Kings chose whomever they wanted. To me, the third pick before the pick was made was worth Gay, after the fact then ?

My guess is that the asking price for the third pick wasn't Rudy Gay and #8 or I think that deal would've been done and Kris Dunn would be a King.

If that was the deal I would've jumped on it. But Gay for Jaylen Brown? I don't know that I'd be interested. Partly because (even as a Cal alum) I'm not high on Brown but maybe more importantly because his game (at least right now) doesn't mesh with Cousins' at all.

 

[Telemachus]

So since Simmions and Ingram aren't as good as Gay today those guys would not be a reasonable return for Gay? If this is your logic WCS is only worth a Jason Thompson type player? I disagree with you

I don't put value on a player based on where they were picked. Jaylen Brown IMO has a much bigger chance of being a bust than either Ingram or Simmons. Personally, I would consider Dunn, Hield and Murray to be of higher value than Brown. Like I said before, the 3rd pick had more value before the pick was made.

 

[twslam07]

I still haven't gotten anything wrong, though? I didn't say anything about likelihood. I spoke to possibility, not probability.

Are the Celtics (or the Kings, if we trade for him) in control over whether or not Marcus Smart signs the Qualifying Offer? Yes or no?

No, and I've said that already. But you're focusing on something that has a very low likelihood of happening which makes your point...well...pointless.