2016 NBA Draft Discussion

ParniValjak

ParniValjak

All-Star
#601
#601
funkykingston said:
When he's engaged he's pretty good but he's very reliant on his athleticism and not always fundamentally sound. He has the quickness to guard faster players and the strength to body up more physical opponents but he sometimes lost focus on that end of the floor. Still, I think with a bit of focus on becoming a defensive player Brown could become an Al-Farouq Aminu type player. Could he be more than that in the NBA? Sure, but it would mean a LOT of work on his handle, his shooting, his rebounding, his decision making, his fouling, his passing/reducing turnovers etc.

In some ways Brown is a bit like Kawhi Leonard in college though he lacks Leonard's massive hands and isn't the same level in terms of rebounding. But he's better at attacking the basket than Leonard was coming out of San Diego State and he played against a higher level of competition. The question is, does he have a work ethic and desire like Kawhi. Leonard was the guy I liked in that draft but he's become more than I imagined he would and his improvement with his shooting has been extraordinary. Two things that concern me with Brown that didn't with Leonard are his steals rate, which is pretty low for a guy people are looking at to be a high level defender and his turnovers were too high.

I can't get a great feel for Brown. He can seem distant but sometimes he's very engaging. He can seem focused but sometimes he seems arrogant. I don't know. But that's the risk with him. He's almost all potential right now. How good does he want to be and how hard will he work to get there?
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Kid has definitely potential. One thing I am hoping we are addressing with the new coaching staff is player development.

I am hoping that we are investing heavily into a development program that allows us to draft these high potential kids and develop them to their potential. Brown has the potential and if he ends up going to a team with great development program, he could become possibly the best player from this draft down the track. If we do end up drafting him, I wold almost get a highly respected development coach and get him to spend every minute with Brown working on addressing his weaknesses. Hell I would do it with any prospect we draft but one thing we have not been doing well is developing our draftees. Elite talents like DMC will find a way but you cannot tell me that someone with Ben McLemore's potential would not be infinitely better player if we spent the last 3 years with the Spurs instead of Kings.

It also begs the question, would Leonard be the same player if we drafted him instead of the Spurs. I would be willing to get that he wouldn't. It's one thing to identify the talent in the draft and then it is another to develop it and we have failed at both, more so the later.
 
Telemachus

Telemachus

Starter
#603
#603
hrdboild said:
A month ago it was supposedly a 7 player draft with Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Hield, Murray, Dunn and Brown. Now it's a 7 player draft with Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Chriss, Dunn, Murray and Hield? Right... :rolleyes:

It was never a 7 player draft anyway. People just make this stuff up about tiers. If we're including Chriss in the top tier now, than I think you have to include Brown, Luwawu, Labissiere, and Poeltl in the top tier too. Here's 5 more names that are very close: Dejounte Murray, Henry Ellenson, Denzel Valentine, Deyonta Davis, Wade Baldwin. There's probably even a few more that I left out. There's more parity in the top half of this draft than any other year I can remember. The proof of that is how wide-ranging some of these projections are. Draftexpress has Baldwin going #13 and nbadraft.net has him going #34. Luwawu is at #14 on DE and at #27 on nbadraft. Nobody knows how to rank these players. The guy going #14 isn't going to be significantly worse than the guy going #3. So it's more about which player is the best fit for your organization or which player has the best work ethic or which long-term project you believe in the most. It's a little concerning that Baldwin is the only first round prospect we've worked out so far, but let's wait until after the draft to pass judgement. The good thing about the lack of information coming out of the front office this year is that websites have no idea what we're going to do for a change and neither do other teams.
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Dan Morley was on the vertical podcast with Woj last week, and said 2/3rd of the teams in the first round were looking to trade their pick. Basically, 20 of the 30 picks could be on the market. I think a lot of that has to do with the uncertainty and parity among the players in this draft.
 
bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#604
#604
Big Cuz 15 said:
doesn't look like any of the guards dunn, hield will be there... what do you think about poeltl at 8?
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Poeltl is probably the safest pick in the draft, but doesn't have the high ceiling of the others. He'll be a very solid center in the league for a long time, and on the right team, a starter. Better athlete than he gets credit for, but mostly a post player right now. Good post defender and he'll block his share of shots.
 
funkykingston

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
#605
#605
Čarolija said:
I know that there has been a few rumblings about Philly trading Okafor for pick 3 and drafting Dunn but I don't see Simmons and Dunn as being good fits. Simmons is a ball dominant point PF if you like and Dunn is a ball dominant PG. Its as good a mix as oil and water. Murray and even Hield would be better fits!
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Yeah, if I'm Philly and Simmons is my guy I'd surround him with shooters and transition guys. And I'd definitely trade Okafor.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#606
#606
Čarolija said:
I know that there has been a few rumblings about Philly trading Okafor for pick 3 and drafting Dunn but I don't see Simmons and Dunn as being good fits. Simmons is a ball dominant point PF if you like and Dunn is a ball dominant PG. Its as good a mix as oil and water. Murray and even Hield would be better fits!
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Yeah, I agree. If they're going with Simmons at #1 (and all indications are that they will be) then they'll want a knockdown shooter at PG so Jamal Murray makes more sense if they wrangle another top pick in an Okafor or Noel trade. I don't see Dunn slipping all the way to 8 though regardless. It looked like we had a shot at Nerlens Noel in 2013 when the first 5 teams passed on him and New Orleans had already drafted a shot-blocking specialist the year before but of course Philly swooped in and offered them Jrue Holiday and that was the end of that. I can see Boston, Phoenix, and Minnesota going in a different direction but somebody will trade up for Dunn at #6 or #7 if the Pelicans or Nuggets don't want him. If we really want Dunn we need to make a move of some kind. If we're not overly attached to any particular player, we can just wait and see what shakes down. I really hope we're not afraid of projects though. Safe picks were Geoff Petrie's domain and aside from a few uncharacteristic forays into unknown European prospects (Peja and Hedo) or volatile Freshman bigmen (DeMarcus and Whiteside) we have very little to show for it.
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#607
#607
hrdboild said:
Yeah, I agree. If they're going with Simmons at #1 (and all indications are that they will be) then they'll want a knockdown shooter at PG so Jamal Murray makes more sense if they wrangle another top pick in an Okafor or Noel trade. I don't see Dunn slipping all the way to 8 though regardless. It looked like we had a shot at Nerlens Noel in 2013 when the first 5 teams passed on him and New Orleans had already drafted a shot-blocking specialist the year before but of course Philly swooped in and offered them Jrue Holiday and that was the end of that. I can see Boston, Phoenix, and Minnesota going in a different direction but somebody will trade up for Dunn at #6 or #7 if the Pelicans or Nuggets don't want him. If we really want Dunn we need to make a move of some kind. If we're not overly attached to any particular player, we can just wait and see what shakes down. I really hope we're not afraid of projects though. Safe picks were Geoff Petrie's domain and aside from a few uncharacteristic forays into unknown European prospects (Peja and Hedo) or volatile Freshman bigmen (DeMarcus and Whiteside) we have very little to show for it.
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The biggest thing I will take away from this all is who Vlade will decide to draft and that will tell me a few things, the direction they are looking to build the team, the reason there were minimum workouts with big name prospects, how the player will fit and drafting the player not because of where he is supposed to go but how high you are on him and being confident enough to develop him into a solid to good player.
 
G

Gilles

Starter
#608
#608
bajaden said:
Poeltl is probably the safest pick in the draft, but doesn't have the high ceiling of the others. He'll be a very solid center in the league for a long time, and on the right team, a starter. Better athlete than he gets credit for, but mostly a post player right now. Good post defender and he'll block his share of shots.
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I posted his international game versus Lithuania before, where Poeltl was basically playing stretch 4. He's comfortable not being a post player, and Poeltl is probably going to be that at least for a few early years due to a lack of strength. He also has 9'3.5" standing reach, so Poeltl is basically Alex Len, if Len could dribble, pass, had patience in the post and 3pt range or Mason Plumblee, if he could dribble, had better footwork in the post or shoot at all. Len and Plumblee are probably a bit more athletic (at least pre-injuries Len was), but not by a margin
Poeltl will also have to put on weight, and that will slow him down a bit, so he's going to be a center. Better fit next to Demarcus than KK, but still an awkward one. At the same time if he's there at #8, there's a good possibility Kings will draft him for someone else.
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#609
#609
Gilles said:
I posted his international game versus Lithuania before, where Poeltl was basically playing stretch 4. He's comfortable not being a post player, and Poeltl is probably going to be that at least for a few early years due to a lack of strength. He also has 9'3.5" standing reach, so Poeltl is basically Alex Len, if Len could dribble, pass, had patience in the post and 3pt range or Mason Plumblee, if he could dribble, had better footwork in the post or shoot at all. Len and Plumblee are probably a bit more athletic (at least pre-injuries Len was), but not by a margin

Poeltl will also have to put on weight, and that will slow him down a bit, so he's going to be a center. Better fit next to Demarcus than KK, but still an awkward one. At the same time if he's there at #8, there's a good possibility Kings will draft him for someone else.
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I pretty much agree on Poeltl. I'm a lot higher on him than most people seem to be. The real problem is that with both Cousins and WCS in the post, there would be a pretty serious minutes crunch for him. But I guess if you look a few years in the future and assume that the Kings have the fortitude to try to split up those 96 frontcourt minutes between Cousins/WCS/Poeltl that you'd probably be looking at the best power frontline in the league.

The way I see it right now, Simmons and Ingram are tier 1, and tier 2 is probably a five-man race between Bender/Brown/Dunn/Hield/Murray - though I think I would put Poeltl in that tier too (I'm just not convinced that NBA guys have Poeltl in there). If Chriss or Poeltl jump into the top 7, then one of those tier 2 guys falls to us, and we probably take him. Otherwise I would think the best strategy would be to take Poeltl as BPA and hopefully have the cojones to keep him and figure that frontcourt out IF we can't trade him for a package that helps us more.
 
passionforpurple916

passionforpurple916

Prospect
#610
#610
What are some good websites to visit if I want to read a nice, honest, and pretty accurate scouting report on the eligible players for the draft? And what are some good sites (could be the same ones, could be different - I don't care) that have some nice mock drafts?
 
2

206Fan

All-Star
#611
#611
passionforpurple916 said:
What are some good websites to visit if I want to read a nice, honest, and pretty accurate scouting report on the eligible players for the draft? And what are some good sites (could be the same ones, could be different - I don't care) that have some nice mock drafts?
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Draftexpress.com is by far the best. They give video breakdowns and go into each prospect in depth in terms of strengths and weaknesses. They have detailed written reports along with videos too. Their draft profiles are very in depth, they give you players measurements as well. You can also find stats on player profiles, along with a very nice statistical database on their website. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay of the NBA. Highly recommend their bigboards and mock drafts. Mock drafts are about where players will probably go. Very accurate.

I think NBADRAFT.net does a good job ranking and tallying up player's skillsets: athletcism, size, defense, strengths, etc. It's the thing on the right on each player profile.. there's one here for Simmons. However, I wouldn't put much stock in anything else on the site..avoid their mock drafts, bigboards, and their analyses.
 
passionforpurple916

passionforpurple916

Prospect
#612
#612
206Fan said:
Draftexpress.com is by far the best. They give video breakdowns and go into each prospect in depth in terms of strengths and weaknesses. They have detailed written reports along with videos too. Their draft profiles are very in depth, they give you players measurements as well. You can also find stats on player profiles, along with a very nice statistical database on their website. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay of the NBA. Highly recommend their bigboards and mock drafts. Mock drafts are about where players will probably go. Very accurate.

I think NBADRAFT.net does a good job ranking and tallying up player's skillsets: athletcism, size, defense, strengths, etc. It's the thing on the right on each player profile.. there's one here for Simmons. However, I wouldn't put much stock in anything else on the site..avoid their mock drafts, bigboards, and their analyses.
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Cool! Thanks!!!
 
G

Gilles

Starter
#613
#613
passionforpurple916 said:
What are some good websites to visit if I want to read a nice, honest, and pretty accurate scouting report on the eligible players for the draft? And what are some good sites (could be the same ones, could be different - I don't care) that have some nice mock drafts?
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draftexpress.com would be a good start and probably finish due to sheer amount of information they generate.
But if you have more time, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzG7QquZVR3apkJeQzPF4Kg/videos is a good channel with another perspective. And https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzeA-tG3_aq4DenyjOlP9Tw/playlists?shelf_id=0&view=1&sort=dd has collections of plays, both good and bad, for a decent amount of prospects, though only from games available on youtube, but still you don't have to watch whole games to get a sense of players.
 
passionforpurple916

passionforpurple916

Prospect
#614
#614
Gilles said:
draftexpress.com would be a good start and probably finish due to sheer amount of information they generate.
But if you have more time, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzG7QquZVR3apkJeQzPF4Kg/videos is a good channel with another perspective. And https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzeA-tG3_aq4DenyjOlP9Tw/playlists?shelf_id=0&view=1&sort=dd has collections of plays, both good and bad, for a decent amount of prospects, though only from games available on youtube, but still you don't have to watch whole games to get a sense of players.
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Gracias!
 
G

Gilles

Starter
#618
#618
biltalent said:
From time to time you should also check out https://deanondraft.com , especially if you're looking for new takes on players as he doesn't care what anyone else says and just goes by his own impressions. For example he has Baldwin at #5 on his big board
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Actually we have a new guy, hopeful to get a job in the NBA, this year: http://www.deepishthoughts.com/author/kaiser-lindeman/
And this one offers some philosophical insight: not everything, I agree with, but gives quite a lot of food for thought. Even if a bit too much statistic oriented even for my taste.
 
beb0p

beb0p

Starter
#619
#619
Found a game featuring Dragan Bender. He comes in near the end of the 1st quarter, part of the 2nd and 3rd. His game basically consists of camping outside and wait for the kick out.

Below is a SI special on Bender, which laments that his team is not using him properly (which explains his small role). I think it may have offered the best explanation why he is ranked so high - he's an oversized playmaking forward who can make threes and block shots. If he lives up to that, then yes, he would be worth a high lottery pick.
http://www.si.com/nba/video/2016/06/15/who-is-dragan-bender-si-films
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macadocious

macadocious

Starter
#621
#621
Dunn at 3 makes literally no sense, unless that pick is going to Phili. Even then it might not make sense.

EDIT: I'm on record saying give me anyone of Dunn, Brown, Murray or Hield. I really don't care which one. After that, we can make roster moves.

Dunn = no Rondo
Murray = Maybe bring back Rondo and trade DC
Hield = Maybe bring back Rondo and Ben is gone
Brown = ? in backcourt and trade Gay

Everyone of this picks leads to different results with decisions regarding our backcourt.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#622
#622
I'm a little nervous about Jaylen Brown but not because I think he's a risky pick -- I actually think he's an ideal candidate for us because he excels at pushing the ball and finishing in transition and he's got the athleticism and the mentality of a defensive stopper, both of which should endear him to our new head coach. I'm nervous because he seems like the kind of player that Vlade will pass on (similarly defensive-minded Freshman wings Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow were on the board for us last year and passed over by Vlade) because he needs a lot of work on his jumper, handle, and decision-making and I don't think it makes sense to pass on his talent at #8. It drives me crazy when we leave good talent on the board and besides being an elite athlete and a well-spoken, intelligent kid he's already said that he wants to be a defensive stopper in the league and he's trying to mimic Kobe Bryant's work-ethic and workout routine. And he took a graduate class at Cal in his freshman year, learned Spanish in a year, and plays chess for fun? When you talk about off-the-court intangibles, I don't think it gets any better than that. The combination of a superior athlete with a rare combination of physical strength and speed who's also incredibly mature for his age and has a retired hall-of-fame player impressed with his work ethic? Maybe it's fools gold, but that seems like a sure-thing to me.
 
macadocious

macadocious

Starter
#623
#623
hrdboild said:
I'm a little nervous about Jaylen Brown but not because I think he's a risky pick -- I actually think he's an ideal candidate for us because he excels at pushing the ball and finishing in transition and he's got the athleticism and the mentality of a defensive stopper, both of which should endear him to our new head coach. I'm nervous because he seems like the kind of player that Vlade will pass on (similarly defensive-minded Freshman wings Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow were on the board for us last year and passed over by Vlade) and I don't think it makes sense to pass on his talent at #8. It drives me crazy when we leave good talent on the board and besides being an elite athlete and a well-spoken, intelligent kid he's already said that he wants to be a defensive stopper in the league and he's trying to mimic Kobe Bryant's work-ethic and workout routine. And he took a graduate class at Cal in his freshman year, learned Spanish in a year, and plays chess for fun? When you talk about off-the-court intangibles, I don't think it gets any better than that. And the combination of a superior athlete with a rare combination of physical strength and speed who's also incredibly mature for his age and has a retired hall-of-fame player impressed with his work ethic? Maybe it's fools gold, but that seems like a sure-thing to me.
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FWIW I don't think Vlade passed on Stanley and Winslow as much as he drafted who he wanted, WCS. If WCS was gone, the pick was probably going to be Winslow.
 
Dime Dropper

Dime Dropper

All-Star
#624
#624
I would be talking a lot more about Poeltl if we weren't already so solid in the big department; that said, drafting on need can hurt a team and I won't complain if we take him. I think it's almost certain that he'll be a better player than some taken ahead of him. I don't know who to really compare him to - I think Pau isn't actually a terrible comparison (and I hate making comparisons like this). He's not as skilled in terms of passing, but he is big, languid, soft touch, finesse-y type guy. He can also board and block some shots. I think he's going to be a good player, and actually a pretty solid fit if it were just him/Cuz/WCS. I'm not as high on trading Koufos as others because it's hard to find solid bigs on good contracts.
 
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hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#625
#625
macadocious said:
FWIW I don't think Vlade passed on Stanley and Winslow as much as he drafted who he wanted, WCS. If WCS was gone, the pick was probably going to be Winslow.
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That's just it -- I'm nervous because I don't know. We're not working out players so there's no soundbites coming out there. There's been some talk that we're only interested in upperclassmen who are closer to NBA ready like Cauley-Stein was. But is that coming from Vlade or just speculation from bloggers? Probably the latter. I really have no idea. But it does seem like Jaylen Brown is the one top guy who could slip to us at #8 if anyone does and I'm going to be sweating until that pick is made.
 
2

206Fan

All-Star
#626
#626
I absolutely love the work Kaiser does.... here is an amazing breakdown on Wade Baldwin where he statistically compares his college numbers to current and former NBA players.

http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-wade-baldwin/

It's definitely worth taking a look at.

Small excerpt near the conclusion
The Players Even More Similar Than Most

This is our list. Chauncey Billups, Jeff Hornacek, Wade Baldwin. Okay at best at scoring from Two-Point Range. Good FTr. Relatively low Usage for this sample group. Good three-point shooting in the case of Billups and Baldwin. (I don’t believe they had threes yet in college when Hornacek was playing.) Good, but not elite passing numbers. Similar defensive numbers. Not nearly as strong as Chris Paul or Kyle Lowry or even James Harden. (Though good defensive numbers in college don’t necessarily translate to good defense, then or in the future.) And apart from Billups’ Freshman season, excellent Assist to Turnover Rates.

Both types of careers are potentially on the table for Baldwin. Both would be hugely positive offensive outcomes. If he then manages to match, Billups defensively, that’s when you get Baldwin as a Top 5 to Top 8 player. That’s one potential career path for Baldwin. In terms of value, it’s very difficult to get there when discussing the majority of the players in this draft class, as it would be discussing the majority of players from any draft class.
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Bottom of conclusion:

Indeed, Point Guards are often undervalued come draft time. Even more than that, the Freshman or Sophomore Point Guard is one of the most frequently undervalued types of players. In recent years, we can find any number of prominent players chosen after the 15th pick in the draft:Rajon Rondo, Eric Bledsoe, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holiday, Cory Joseph, Avery Bradley, Javaris Crittenton are most recently these types of players. I think you could make a fairly convincing argument that Tony Parker, Dennis Schroder, and Goran Dragic belong to this group as well.
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