After the last workout, when Bratz was answering questions, Ham asked about moving around in the draft, and Mike's reaction was instant "I can't comment on that", so, I believe, moving down is a very real possibility.
Yeah, let's get a guard, who will need hiding on D: you can never have enough of those.
In a league, where Pat Beverley, George Hill and 31-y.o. Deron Williams with vanished athleticism are starters on PO teams, Baldwin is certainly not a projected bench player.
You need to look a bit deeper, at circumstances: Baldwin is going Westbrook route (let's get it out of the way: no one in this draft have Russ' speed, Wade included). Baldwin played his HS career as a slashing/defending SG, then for 1.5 years in college he shared PG duties with the guy, who was recruited as a PG in the same class, and only was main creator for a half of this season. His per 100 possessions stats from Conference play this year: 26.1p(.547TS%)+10.6a(4.7TOs) compared to Dunn's 26.2p(.532TS%)+9.6a(6.4TOs).
Due to the way he went through, Baldwin is still almost exclusively looking for his own shot late in the clock, sometimes missing open teammates. He also relies too much on attacking, when shooting is such an efficient weapon for him, though despite low percentages at the rim, Wade created havoc out there with almost stupid FTA/2ptFGA above 1.00 in Conference play. Not even Jimmy Butler, who didn't have outside shot to rely on and had to attack, attack, attack in Marquette, was able to cross that line, only getting to 0.99 as a junior. Which bring us to the final point: Baldwin is 20-y.o. sophomore, which is 2 years younger than Dunn, who just needs polishing and guidance. Due to his versatility Baldwin should probably start his career off the bench next to another combo-guard.
P.S. People, who get excited about Denzel's combination of shooting and playmaking, should be all over Baldwin, since he has the same traits, only with athleticism to actually use his passing at the next level and be a defensive presence.
P.S. 2 Baldwin does have a couple of problems with his shooting: "dips", bring the ball down, too much and doesn't use full extension, which forces him to pass on some shots or lead to uncomfortable heaves. Both are very much correctable issues, since he has shooting motion and balance/body motion locked up.