2016 NBA Draft Discussion

[bajaden]

As I suspected, for those wondering if the Kings are going to look at players likely to be there when they pick at eight, the Vertical posted an article about the multiplayer workout in LA over the weekend. Apparently it was attended by all 30 NBA teams, and Vlade is listed as being there.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/pro-day--kris-dunn--jakob-poeltl-171704752.html

 

[dude12]

This draft is looking to be hard to predict at least at this point in time. Chriss is so raw right now. I hope he goes high like that. Would drop one of those guards to us.

 

[ParniValjak]

Whoa, DX's latest mock this morning has Chriss going THIRD to Boston: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/

I'm not sure where folks got the impression this is a big board, not a mock. They have a separate top 100 big board.

Nor surprised by this as I mentioned Boston as a team that might have interest if Bender is likely to stay overseas for a few seasons.

And despite getting Chriss to move up the draft board we still end with the small I least like on that mock draft. Unfortunately, I do agree that I can't see Minnesota overlooking Dunn. Thibs will absolutely LOVE his game especially on the defensive end.

 

[ParniValjak]

By the way, DraftExpress has posted their new revised mock draft this morning and it has Chriss going at number 3 to the Celtics. That's a huge move, and I have to think it's based on some kind of inside info. I certainly hope it's true, because it means one of the players we covet will slide down to us. They now have us taking Jamal Murray, which I'm fine with. I still prefer Dunn, who I think may well end up being the best player out of this draft class in three years. Maybe I need to drink less!

DraftExpress does all this with a two man scouting staff, which is pretty amazing. I ran into Jonathan Givony at summer league a few years ago. We were staying at the same hotel. The first thing I asked him was how big a scouting staff had, and he said that it consisted of just himself and Mike Schmitz. I told him that I thought his critique of Tyreke Evans at the time pretty much sucked, and got a big laugh out of him. Anyway, he does a great job, and get's all of his info first hand. Check out the site today. There was a lot of movement.

With the Celtics interest I am not THAT surprised if you take into account where the Celtics are now and the type of GM Ainge is and type of coach Stevens is. Ainge is not afraid to make the bold move and draft players purely on upside and then back in his coaching staff and franchise culture to develop them into an NBA player.

When I look at their roster, their big needs are all in the frontcourt. IT, Bradley and Crowder has the perimeter covered. IT is a penetrating guard who is also a good shooter but most of his assists come off drive and kick out so a stretch player is a very nice complement to have there. Bender is a great talent but he will stay in Europe for a while I think. I could be wrong but it is a reasonable assumption to make. I see Ainge rather drafting someone like Chriss, and then back in his coaching staff to develop him into the sort of player he can be. Sure, Chriss might play in the D League a lot next season or and maybe the season after, but Ainge would look at it as Celtics having a control of his development and teaching him what they want to teach him and how they want to teach him rather than rely on a European club to develop him which is really risky as majority of these team (especially big clubs like Maccabi) are in it to win it and development of younger players is not their #1 priority.

I must say that of all the smalls on the draft board, Murray is one that I am least keen on. Given Rondo's free agency and Collison's legal troubles, I would not be surprised if we traded up (with Phoneix) to try and draft Dunn and as you mentioned previously a deal involving KK is not out of the question. You can always get a cheaper back up C to play back up minutes and it might even become less of a need if we decide to go after Anderson and have Cousins and WCS play all the C minutes.

 

[LPKingsFan]

As I suspected, for those wondering if the Kings are going to look at players likely to be there when they pick at eight, the Vertical posted an article about the multiplayer workout in LA over the weekend. Apparently it was attended by all 30 NBA teams, and Vlade is listed as being there.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/pro-day--kris-dunn--jakob-poeltl-171704752.html

Indeed. More from Ham, today:

Bratz confirmed that he and other members of the front office took in six different prospect workouts over the weekend in Southern California and there are more scheduled, including stops in Chicago and in Florida.

“End of last week we went to six agent workouts and they showcase their players,” Bratz said. “The workouts are a little bit different. They’re a little more tailored to showing their players strengths. Here, when we have them in our building, we get to find out a little bit more about them individually.”

The plan is to bring in a specific group of players around mid-June. Bratz and his team of scouts have already seen almost every prospect live and they have also watched hours of footage. The last step is to get the players in for conversations with general manager Vlade Divac for some face time.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/kings/kings-ready-any-scenario-no-8-2016-draft

There's some more in there about the rise of group workouts. I'm not sure I like the trend. This is perhaps a post for another time, but it seems to be driven by another, bigger, trend--the increased power of agents.

 

[Glenn]

Indeed. More from Ham, today:



http://www.csnbayarea.com/kings/kings-ready-any-scenario-no-8-2016-draft

There's some more in there about the rise of group workouts. I'm not sure I like the trend. This is perhaps a post for another time, but it seems to be driven by another, bigger, trend--the increased power of agents.

Seems like mass workouts make it very difficult for a GM or whoever attends to get to know the player as a person. Might as well just hand out game tickets.

 

[ParniValjak]

For those that have watched Chriss play, could he develop into a full time SF in the NBA both offensively and defensively or is he a PF?

 

[funkykingston]

For those that have watched Chriss play, could he develop into a full time SF in the NBA both offensively and defensively or is he a PF?

Chriss needs significant improvement to succeed in the NBA at either forward spot. I like him but his rebounding and defense are really poor at this point. But to answer your question he looks a LOT more like a PF than a SF. He's shown decent mechanics and encouraging numbers on his outside jumper but other than that he doesn't really have perimeter skills right now.

And I think a big part of the draw with Chriss is the idea that he could be a Serge Ibaka type - athletic, floor stretching PF who also protects the rim.

 

[bajaden]

Seems like mass workouts make it very difficult for a GM or whoever attends to get to know the player as a person. Might as well just hand out game tickets.

At most of these workouts, the GM's or whoever the team representative is get to meet with the individual players.

 

[bajaden]

Chriss needs significant improvement to succeed in the NBA at either forward spot. I like him but his rebounding and defense are really poor at this point. But to answer your question he looks a LOT more like a PF than a SF. He's shown decent mechanics and encouraging numbers on his outside jumper but other than that he doesn't really have perimeter skills right now.

And I think a big part of the draw with Chriss is the idea that he could be a Serge Ibaka type - athletic, floor stretching PF who also protects the rim.

His rebounding was, and is a concern. Mostly poor fundamentals, and lack of effort. In one game he played 34 minutes and grabbed 2 rebounds. In another he played 17 minutes and had zero rebounds. So it is a concern, but something that can be overcome with proper coaching and motivation. Another problem he had was fouls. He fouled out of 15 of the 34 games he played. In one stretch he fouled out of 6 games in a row. He also was a poor defensive player despite blocking his fair share of shots. Thus the term raw being applied. I agree that he's definitely a PF, and he has a ton of potential, but then so did Tyrus Thomas.

 

[Dime Dropper]

I would feel pretty solid coming out of this with Jamal Murray, who DX have us taking right now. I think he can contribute right away offensively and has a lot of improvements he can make. He's not my first choice (Dunn is, and I'd also take Brown ahead of him) but I like him more than Hield.

Everyone wants to find the next Klay, but I actually think Murray shares quite a few similarities to him.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Some new workout videos. First up, Marqueese Chris:

Seems like an intelligent kid who knows his shortcomings, I don't know exactly where the immature label came from.

Buddy Hield:

Jamal Murray:

Kris Dunn:

Plenty more on youtube but I don't want to spam the thread.

 

[bajaden]

I would feel pretty solid coming out of this with Jamal Murray, who DX have us taking right now. I think he can contribute right away offensively and has a lot of improvements he can make. He's not my first choice (Dunn is, and I'd also take Brown ahead of him) but I like him more than Hield.

Everyone wants to find the next Klay, but I actually think Murray shares quite a few similarities to him.

Don't disagree. I know some concerns about how well he can play defense have been brought up, but he's a decent athlete at worse, and probably better than that, so I suspect his defense will be fine. He can shoot, and he's a very good passer. He's not the best shot creator, but he's only 19 years old, and his best days are ahead of him. My first choice is also Dunn, but I like Hield more than you do. I think he's been unfairly criticized in some areas that he vastly improved in last season. After his junior year, I would have agreed with those criticisms, but not after his senior year. The defensive criticisms are fair, but you have to wonder how much of his poor defense was the result of how hard he worked on the offensive side of the ball. He wouldn't be the number one, or two option on the Kings.

 

[funkykingston]

His rebounding was, and is a concern. Mostly poor fundamentals, and lack of effort. In one game he played 34 minutes and grabbed 2 rebounds. In another he played 17 minutes and had zero rebounds. So it is a concern, but something that can be overcome with proper coaching and motivation. Another problem he had was fouls. He fouled out of 15 of the 34 games he played. In one stretch he fouled out of 6 games in a row. He also was a poor defensive player despite blocking his fair share of shots. Thus the term raw being applied. I agree that he's definitely a PF, and he has a ton of potential, but then so did Tyrus Thomas.

The fouling issue doesn't concern me a ton. Not much different than international bigs who come to the NBA and have a major adjustment with fouls. It's something that can be cleaned up with good coaching and effort.

Chriss is a rare freshman in the NBA draft in that he was relatively lightly regarded coming out of high school. Usually one-and-done guys come in as blue chip recruits. He certainly has the physical gifts to be a successful NBA PF. It's really going to come down to what's between his ears and his desire to put in the work and improve.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Kings gamble on his potential but I'd much rather see him climb up the draft boards of the teams ahead of the Kings and possibly push Dunn to Sacramento.

PHI - Simmons
LAL - Ingram
BOS - Chriss (I thought DX was nuts but this DOES seem like an Ainge type gamble)
PHX - Bender
MIN - Murray (a shooter who can share the backcourt with either Rubio or LaVine)
NOP - Brown (they need a SF - well they need a LOT of things)
DEN - Hield
SAC - Dunn (commence celebrating)

For a number of reasons I'm hoping that there wasn't serious violence involved in the Collison situation. First and foremost because that's the type of thing that ruins families and lives but also (and much less importantly) I like DC as a player and I think him as the starter and Dunn as the backup is a great situation. Maybe Curry is resigned as the 3rd PG as Dunn is big enough and a good enough defender to pair with Darren or Seth in the backcourt depending on matchups.

It would make the decision to let Rondo walk an easy one and then the Kings can use caproom to address other spots.

$10 million for Courtney Lee, $11 million for Teletovic, $5 million for Curry and $2 million for Acy would give

Cousins/Koufos
Cauley-Stein/Teletovic/Acy
Gay/Casspi
Lee/McLemore/Belinelli
Collison/Curry/Dunn

And you'd still have the room exception and minimum contracts for the third string center and small forward.

 

[funkykingston]

Some new workout videos. First up, Marqueese Chris:

Seems like an intelligent kid who knows his shortcomings, I don't know exactly where the immature label came from.

I think people may be conflating "raw" with "immature". Chriss is definitely raw - he has a long way to go to develop an NBA game. But he seems plenty mature for his age.

 

[Glenn]

At most of these workouts, the GM's or whoever the team representative is get to meet with the individual players.

I understand that. The problem is that instead of one or more representatives of the team to have the player for an entire day, 30 will get to be alone with the player one by one. In a day's time, that's not much time per team.

 

[bajaden]

The fouling issue doesn't concern me a ton. Not much different than international bigs who come to the NBA and have a major adjustment with fouls. It's something that can be cleaned up with good coaching and effort.

Chriss is a rare freshman in the NBA draft in that he was relatively lightly regarded coming out of high school. Usually one-and-done guys come in as blue chip recruits. He certainly has the physical gifts to be a successful NBA PF. It's really going to come down to what's between his ears and his desire to put in the work and improve.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Kings gamble on his potential but I'd much rather see him climb up the draft boards of the teams ahead of the Kings and possibly push Dunn to Sacramento.

PHI - Simmons
LAL - Ingram
BOS - Chriss (I thought DX was nuts but this DOES seem like an Ainge type gamble)
PHX - Bender
MIN - Murray (a shooter who can share the backcourt with either Rubio or LaVine)
NOP - Brown (they need a SF - well they need a LOT of things)
DEN - Hield
SAC - Dunn (commence celebrating)

For a number of reasons I'm hoping that there wasn't serious violence involved in the Collison situation. First and foremost because that's the type of thing that ruins families and lives but also (and much less importantly) I like DC as a player and I think him as the starter and Dunn as the backup is a great situation. Maybe Curry is resigned as the 3rd PG as Dunn is big enough and a good enough defender to pair with Darren or Seth in the backcourt depending on matchups.

It would make the decision to let Rondo walk an easy one and then the Kings can use caproom to address other spots.

$10 million for Courtney Lee, $11 million for Teletovic, $5 million for Curry and $2 million for Acy would give

Cousins/Koufos
Cauley-Stein/Teletovic/Acy
Gay/Casspi
Lee/McLemore/Belinelli
Collison/Curry/Dunn

And you'd still have the room exception and minimum contracts for the third string center and small forward.

I could certainly live with that outcome. It's not perfect, but I don't expect to get everything I want. It's certainly an upgrade. I don't think Gay is a perfect fit for for this team, but I don't think he's that much of a negative either. I'd like to see one of, or both, McLemore and Belinelli moved, but that might be easier said than done. I would still prefer Ryan Anderson over Teletovic and Acy, but I see what your doing there. It's not a championship team, but it's a step in that direction. Lee is just a placeholder for a couple of years, and who knows, maybe McLemore wakes up during that time and is ready to step in and take over the SG spot.

 

[bajaden]

I understand that. The problem is that instead of one or more representatives of the team to have the player for an entire day, 30 will get to be alone with the player one by one. In a day's time, that's not much time per team.

Well I agree that it's not the perfect scenario, and I assume that the Kings will do their best to bring any player they think might be available, and in which they have an interest, in for a workout in Sacramento. They probably interviewed the players they're interested in at the combine, although it was only for 30 minutes. Other than that, it is what it is. I feel confident that they'll have enough information to make the right choice. If not, I'm more than willing to make the choice for them.

 

[funkykingston]

I could certainly live with that outcome. It's not perfect, but I don't expect to get everything I want. It's certainly an upgrade. I don't think Gay is a perfect fit for for this team, but I don't think he's that much of a negative either. I'd like to see one of, or both, McLemore and Belinelli moved, but that might be easier said than done. I would still prefer Ryan Anderson over Teletovic and Acy, but I see what your doing there. It's not a championship team, but it's a step in that direction. Lee is just a placeholder for a couple of years, and who knows, maybe McLemore wakes up during that time and is ready to step in and take over the SG spot.

It's easy enough to say Courtney Lee for $10 million and Ryan Anderson for $16 million and let Curry walk to fill the 3rd PG spot with a minimum contract or the room exception.

If Anderson were signed then I think Gay needs to go. You'd have Cousins, WCS & Gay starting and Casspi (and to a lesser extent Koufos) needing frontcourt minutes too. Part of how Rudy and Omri were able to get enough court time was that they often played together as the forwards. Not only do I think Gay isn't a particularly great second option to Boogie (and maybe Dunn COULD become one) but there just aren't enough minutes to go around. I'm just not sure what Rudy's value around the league is right now.

 

[twslam07]

No sense in investing a lot of money in a stretch 4 when Casspi filled that role very well last year. Would rather use the cap on Courtney Lee, Solomon Hill, Seth Curry, & Quincy Acy

PG - Collison (32 min) / Curry (16 min)
SG - Lee (30 min) / Hill (18 min) / McLemore / Belinelli
SF - Gay (34 min) / Casspi (8 min) / Hill (6 min) / Butler
PF - Cauley-Stein (26 min) / Casspi (18 min) / Cousins (4 min) / Acy
C - Cousins (32 min) / Koufos (16 min)

Cousins - 36 min
Gay - 34 min
Collison - 32 min
Lee - 30 min
Casspi - 26 min
Cauley-Stein - 26 min
Hill - 24 min
Curry - 16 min
Koufos - 16 min

 

[ParniValjak]

No sense in investing a lot of money in a stretch 4 when Casspi filled that role very well last year. Would rather use the cap on Courtney Lee, Solomon Hill, Seth Curry, & Quincy Acy

PG - Collison (32 min) / Curry (16 min)
SG - Lee (30 min) / Hill (18 min) / McLemore / Belinelli
SF - Gay (34 min) / Casspi (8 min) / Hill (6 min) / Butler
PF - Cauley-Stein (26 min) / Casspi (18 min) / Cousins (4 min) / Acy
C - Cousins (32 min) / Koufos (16 min)

Cousins - 36 min
Gay - 34 min
Collison - 32 min
Lee - 30 min
Casspi - 26 min
Cauley-Stein - 26 min
Hill - 24 min
Curry - 16 min
Koufos - 16 min

Playing Casspi extended minutes at 4 is not the answer. He is a SF who can play some minutes at 4 against some team but not regularly against all teams. There are MUCH MUCH better stretch 4s out there than Casspi so if we really want one, then we will need to look to upgrade that spot.

I wouldn't be surprised if Kosta is traded and we sign Anderson and roll out the Cousins-WCS-Anderson front court trio next season with Cousins and WCS sharing the minutes at C. We would also need to sign a banger who can come into the rotation when DMC has his yearly time off with injuries (maybe Cole Aldrich type).

Despite all that I think that our biggest issue at the moment is SG and with how things are transpiring at the moment, we might need to look at addressing the PG situation so that we are not left holding a candle come start of the season.

 

[twslam07]

Playing Casspi extended minutes at 4 is not the answer. He is a SF who can play some minutes at 4 against some team but not regularly against all teams.

What data do you have to back your claim that Casspi is a SF who can play some minutes at PF? Saying it doesn't make it so. Not only did Casspi log more of his minutes at PF than SF last season (67% vs. 33%), but Casspi was statistically better at PF than he was at SF.

At SF
Points scored per 100 possessions: 104.5
Points given up per 100 possessions: 110.9
Net points per 100 possessions: -6.5

At PF
Points scored per 100 possessions: 108.7
Points given up per 100 possessions: 104.6
Net points per 100 possessions: +4.2

So again, how did you come to that conclusion?

There are MUCH MUCH better stretch 4s out there than Casspi so if we really want one, then we will need to look to upgrade that spot.

As for there being "MUCH MUCH better stretch 4s out there than Casspi," again, what makes you say this?

By my count there could potentially be seven average or above stretch 4s in free agency this year: Anderson, Ilyasova, Jerebko, Nicholson, M. Scott, Teletovic, & M. Williams. These guys are not "MUCH MUCH better" as you put it.

When compared to those seven stretch 4s, Casspi was the best in the following categories (per 100 possessions):

1. 3PT%
2. TS%
3. Steals

For many of the other stats & measurements, he is average:

1. 3PA
2. Points
3. Rebounds
4. Assists
5. Height

There are a few that he comes in at below average:

1. FT%
2. Blocks (not much of a concern w/ Cousins/Cauley-Stein/Koufos next to him)
3. Turnovers
4. Weight

However, when we take a look at the performance metrics Net On/Off & RAPM, Casspi is top notch.

1. #2 in Net On/Off (9.3)
2. #3 in RAPM (1.04)

So again, I ask you...how did you come to that conclusion?

I wouldn't be surprised if Kosta is traded and we sign Anderson and roll out the Cousins-WCS-Anderson front court trio next season with Cousins and WCS sharing the minutes at C.

Another thing you are overlooking is what happens with Cauley-Stein. If you're wanting to sign Anderson, you're basically going to be limiting Cauley-Stein to defending the perimeter as you'd prefer to have both Cousins & Anderson take the player in the paint. As of now, Cauley-Stein is at his best when he is defending the rim. Bringing a guy like Anderson here will likely result in him not being able to do what he's best at.

At PF (when having to guard more of the perimeter)
Points scored per 100 possessions: 106.3
Points given up per 100 possessions: 111.5
Net points per 100 possessions: -5.2

At C (when having to guard more of the paint/rim)
Points scored per 100 possessions: 106.7
Points given up per 100 possessions: 103.4
Net points per 100 possessions: +3.3




With all of that being said, I think it's pretty apparent that...

1. Casspi is not just a SF considering he played 67% of his minutes at PF last year and was more effective there than at SF
2. There aren't "MUCH MUCH better" stretch 4 options. Casspi is solid and on a dirt cheap contract.
3. Bringing Anderson here will likely reduce Cauley-Stein's impact or effectiveness when we should be building around our two frontcourt players of future

 

[andjel]

I also do not see that burning need for Anderson.
Nice player to have for sure, but would not break Cuz/WCS/KK/Gay/Casspi nor limit guard search for him.

We can already play a solid 3pt forward/center lineup with Cuz/Gay/Casspi.

 

[dude12]

I also do not see that burning need for Anderson.
Nice player to have for sure, but would not break Cuz/WCS/KK/Gay/Casspi nor limit guard search for him.

We can already play a solid 3pt forward/center lineup with Cuz/Gay/Casspi.

Anderson at the 4 is so much better than either Gay or Casspi.....not even close.

 

[ockingsfan]

Anderson at the 4 is so much better than either Gay or Casspi.....not even close.

The problem with Anderson at the 4 is you take WCS and his defense out of the lineup.

You would need a very strong defensive presence at the other positions, if that were to happen.

If Anderson could play the 3, that would be ideal, but many here have concluded that he is not a 3.

 

[dude12]

The problem with Anderson at the 4 is you take WCS and his defense out of the lineup.

You would need a very strong defensive presence at the other positions, if that were to happen.

If Anderson could play the 3, that would be ideal, but many here have concluded that he is not a 3.

You have to play 3 bigs with a 4th getting leftovers. I don't see the problem. There are minutes to go around.

 

[Sac.Kings]

Has anyone considered playing Anderson at the 3 spot in the starting lineup? I would look to trade Rudy and filler if needed for a legitimate 2 guard or PG depending on what shakes out in the draft. Anderson at the 3 would give us the largest front court in the league or at the very least top 3. It would open up the lane for Cousins and WCS as Anderson is a huge threat from 3. Preferably our 2 guard would have to be a good 3 point shooter as well to prevent defenses from keying in on Anderson.

 

[Darth Divac]

Are we actually talking about James Anderson as a rotation player right now

 

[funkykingston]

Are we actually talking about James Anderson as a rotation player right now

Ryan Anderson.

 

[Jojimbo]

Ryan Andersen cannot play the three, that would be disastrous. I think he's over-valued, and that his very poor defense is not what this team needs going forward. We can get a cheaper version of that in Marvin Williams and a few other guys who are above average defenders as well. I'm hoping we swing a deal with Phoenix that includes Gay and another piece for Knight and #5 and if we're lucky we snag Hield or Dunn. The situation with Collision is too shaky so I think we should plan to cut our losses and shore up PG. Outside of that we should push hard for Fournier, Bazemore or Crabbe; I most likely think we'll end up with a declining Lee for the next few years though. I'm a huge advocate for trying to get Lance Stephenson here to come off the bench as well. I think he would do great, maybe package Belli or Ben in that Phoenix trade to make room.