Looking forward to how Joerger will play WCS

IfAt1st · May 17, 2016

IMO, this was a mis-read of what happened, caused by the commentators and the fans after the game.

Ryan Anderson destroyed WCS in games................. but he also destroyed every Kings player that tried to guard him, and it wasn;t just because of Karl's incompetent defense.
There were plays where Willie was in Ryan's face, and he still swished the shot.
Ryan Anderson played better against us last year than I've seen any stretch 4 play in recent memory. Guy was automatic, and unstoppable.

At a certain point, you have to just hand it to elite athletes and hope they don't keep doing that against ya.
I'm so sick of the current NBA atmosphere that concludes that your team (or guy) is doing something wrong when they don;t stop the best players in the world.
Newsflash - in the current NBA offenses, it is impossible to prevent 3-pt shooters from getting the shot off.
You have to give up SOME shots.
And Karl chose to give up the 3 ptr.
All season.
Even when the Kings lost single-handedly to it, time and time again.
Even when the guy driving the lane wasn't going to shoot it, or sucked at shooting it.
Even when our big men were dominant over their big men - they STILL would "challenge the drive" and give up the open 3, all game long, all season long.

Gilles · May 17, 2016

There's a youtube video of Anderson's shootout, and while his shots inside the arc are contested pretty heavily, Ryan starts the shooting motion on most of his 3s being rather wide open. A bit like splash brothers if you don't find Anderson immediately while going from offense to defense, you'll see a three flying.

King Baller · May 17, 2016

I am not putting too much weight in what I saw last year from the Kings players. IMO the defensive schemes could not have been a worse match for the Kings personnel. Guys seemed to often be in the wrong spot or involved in a mismatch. Only after Thibs "consulted" did things change a bit.

BeerNerd916 · May 17, 2016

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nba-players-no-one-passed-to-this-season/

Pretty good read (and watch) of how ineffective WCS is on the low block and why I think Joegs will put him on the high block. Plus, he can probably make the easiest flat footed pass to Cuz on the low block of anyone on the team with his height and length.

SacKings384 · May 17, 2016

lawlman91 said:

Steven Adams proves that big men can stay on the floor even when the other team goes small. Willy is even more athletic. He has a bright future in this league.

SacKings384 · May 17, 2016

I'm actually curious as others have mentioned if Joerger can revitalize B-Mac. I mean the guy managed to get Tony Allen involved in the offense. Courtney Lee, Vince Carter, and Matt Barnes all had solid roles on the team. There's really no excuse for him not to be a 11-13 ppg scorer this next season.

KingsFanSince85 · May 17, 2016

SacKings384 said:

I thought it was quite evident well beforehand and have been preaching it for a few years now. Yes, rule changes and the 3pt line have made it easier and beneficial for many teams to go small, but another underrated reason is a dearth of skilled big post players in the league. If you happen to have one -- that also has good feet on defense -- you're doing the opposition a favor by taking them out of the game.

I don't always agree with Charles Barkley, but this is essentially what he was trying to say last night when he said that he didn't understand why teams often fall into the trap of trying to matchup with teams like the Warriors when they go small. They do what they do better than you do so you're better off playing to your strengths. If your post player is a slug and can't move on defense, then, yes, you have to take them out. But when you have a Steven Adams and Serge Ibaka, as OKC does, then you leave them out there and take your chances. While they may get beat off the dribble by Draymond Green from time to time, there are several ancillary benefits. Rebounding and the fact that Steph and Klay don't have the ball in their hands when their busy trying to take advantage of the Draymond Green matchup.

Offensively, I'd rather take my chances with an undersized Green guarding the likes of Adams, Towns, Cuz, etc. as those guys are going to shoot higher %'s around the basket than normal which helps negate the 3 pt shooting. We haven't seen Cuz do that against Golden State, for the most part, because the Warriors haven't had to respect the surrounding talent and can collapse on him more easily. But getting the right mix of talent around a big like Towns and Cousins makes it tough for any team to go small.

As for Willie, he doesn't have the offensive post/rebounding skills those guys have, but he's a big you keep on the floor no matter what because of his length, athleticism, and quick feet on defense.

Suicide King · May 17, 2016

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/hakeem-olajuwon-houston-rockets-big-men-small-ball/

An article by Hakeem Olajuwon on small ball and big men.

bajaden · May 17, 2016

kingsboi said:

Your doing the chicken or egg thing. Look, rules can change, but they change at the whim of the owners, and what they want the league to look like. There came a point where everyone was trying to copy the Pistons and the Knicks physical style of basketball. The powers that be didn't like that overall scoring was going down, and the game had lost flow. So they put in rules that made if more difficult for teams to play that wey. And it worked, scoring started to go up. So they doubled down and put in more rule changes. The only change they put in that helped the defense is that started allowing zone defenses.

Young players watch todays game, and start copying what they see. Most big men are learning to shoot the three, and developing ballhandling skills. Those that can't are having a hard time making it into the league. There was a time when if you were 7 foot and breathing, you could find your way onto the end of an NBA bench. Not anymore. Teams are looking for players that are athletic and have skills. I don't see it changing anytime soon.

bajaden · May 17, 2016

Kingster said:

There were particular games - New Orleans and Atlanta come to mind - where WCS tried guarding the stretch four. He couldn't do it. Sure, I would expect that the coach discontinued the stretch 4 experiment when he wasn't very good doing it. It was there for everybody to see and many did comment about it. As I recall, at the beginning of last season I asked the question on this board how WCS was going to affect the opposing teams offense, and the general consensus was, yes, he's going to guard those stretch fours, you just wait. It didn't happen. Will he eventually be able to guard those stretch fours? I would expect he will. I just don't know when.

So Willie can stay in front of a PG, or a SG, or SF, but he can't stay in front of a PF....Right!

KingsFanSince85 · May 17, 2016

bajaden said:

Who made that assertion? Willie can stay in front of nearly everyone. And the ones he can't keep in front of him are so small that he can still recover with his length and athleticism to alter or block the shot.

bajaden · May 17, 2016

206Fan said:

I don't pretend to be an expert on Ibaka, but I saw him play in the Jordan classic and the Nike summit international games, and the thing they kept mentioning was that his jumpshot needed work. The thing that got Ibaka notoriety was his performance at one of those all star games where he blocked something like 11 shots and grabbed a ton of rebounds. No one was talking about what a great jumpshooter he was. The fact that he turned out to be a good shooter makes my point.

Remember, there wasn't a lot of film available on Ibaka at the time other than youtube video's, and if you watched them at the time, you mostly saw him dunking the ball or blocking shots. I''m talking pre-draft. I'm also going on my memory of the time, which is always dangerous.

bajaden · May 17, 2016

KingsFanSince85 said:

Kingster stated that Willie is incapable of guarding stretch fours.

bajaden · May 17, 2016

By the way, here are some quotes from an interview today at the lottery.

Justin Termine ‏@TermineRadio 2h2 hours ago
Cauley-Stein said the team knew early on that "the G Karl-Cousins thing wasn't going to work" and was "gone"
Justin Termine ‏@TermineRadio 2h2 hours ago
Willie Cauley-Stein told @Jumpshot8 & I he doesn't feel like he was "used right" this past season under G Karl.

KingsFanSince85 · May 17, 2016

bajaden said:

Ok. Makes sense now.

Glenn · May 17, 2016

In all fairness to Kingster, he used Willie's apparent inability to guard Ryan Anderson on a night where Snderson could hit anything and everything he wanted to. I'm not going to go back and read the post, but if he thought that was proof of Willie's incompetence, he's just flat out wromg. If there is a zone within a zone, Ryan was in that inner zone.

I will not sell Willie short on anything. He will be what he wants to be.

BeerNerd916 · May 17, 2016

bajaden said:

I can't "like" this because I hate it at the same time. So I will just quote it I guess.

bajaden · May 17, 2016

Glenn said:

Yeah, and I think that we all need to remember that Willie is still learning the league. Every player he guards is different. I remember that game and Willie made the mistake of playing too far off of Anderson the first couple of times, but later played him a lot closer. I remember a couple of shots that Anderson hit with a hand in his face. Of course your right, he's wrong. Put Willie in a good system and let him get experience, and he'll be one of the best.

bajaden · May 17, 2016

Russell Pimphustler said:

Not sure what that means, but OK!

kingsboi · May 17, 2016

bajaden said:

Your doing the chicken or egg thing. Look, rules can change, but they change at the whim of the owners, and what they want the league to look like. There came a point where everyone was trying to copy the Pistons and the Knicks physical style of basketball. The powers that be didn't like that overall scoring was going down, and the game had lost flow. So they put in rules that made if more difficult for teams to play that wey. And it worked, scoring started to go up. So they doubled down and put in more rule changes. The only change they put in that helped the defense is that started allowing zone defenses.

Young players watch todays game, and start copying what they see. Most big men are learning to shoot the three, and developing ballhandling skills. Those that can't are having a hard time making it into the league. There was a time when if you were 7 foot and breathing, you could find your way onto the end of an NBA bench. Not anymore. Teams are looking for players that are athletic and have skills. I don't see it changing anytime soon.

Based off of what exactly? The trends in the NBA don't last for too long, at least they haven't as of late. Why is this any different?

Bricklayer · May 17, 2016

kingsboi said:

Its human nature for people to always think/assume they live in the end times at the pinnacle of all development. Its just that Baja has lived through a few more pinnacles than most living creatures, except maybe a giant sequoia.

BeerNerd916 · May 18, 2016

bajaden said:

I liked the fact that you posted that, I hate what you posted, but I couldnt like or hate it so I quoted it to show my appreciation. Does that help?

Amit149 · May 18, 2016

Glenn said:

Here are some facts:

When Cauley-Stein defends a shoot from 15 ft and out (including 3 pointers) the shooter is shooting 2% better than the average (39% when Willie is defending VS 37%)- just to be clear- the majority of shots Willie defended this year were on this category (51.6%).

If you take a look only at 3 pointers (30% of the shoots Willie defended) than the opponent shoots 2% better than on average when Willie is defending him (36.8% when Willie is defending VS 34.8%).

You can add that to specific games and the eye test- where we saw Willie struggling to defend stretch 4's (and many here even pointed it out in the game threads)... does that mean Willie will never be able to defend this guys? no, he was a rookie and they tend to underperform especially on the defensive end- but right now he isn't great at doing that (which is what the discussion was about).

biltalent · May 18, 2016

Amit149 said:

Just to play devils advocate..
Is that difference statistically significant? I doubt it. Actually it is pretty impressive. A rookie that has never before played in the NBA, has no experience guarding that position and didnt experience good coaching defended stretch 4s as well as the average of the NBA? Not bad

Glenn · May 18, 2016

biltalent said:

I was going to say the same thing. That leaves Willie as average as a little used rookie. That sounds pretty good to me.

Amit149 · May 18, 2016

biltalent said:

2% worse is significant... and there's nothing impressive about it- let's take a look at a not-so-short-list of other PF/C rookies from this class (and WCS was advertised here as the best suitable big in defending smaller guys) that are doing better:

Bobby Portis: opponents shoot 10.6% worse than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Myles Turner: opponents shoot 4.3% worse than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Kristaps Porzingis: opponents shoot 3.1% worse than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Chris McCullough: opponents shoot 4.1% worse than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Larry Nance JR: opponents shoot 3% worse than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Trey Lyles: opponents shoot 2.8% worse than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Nemanja Bjelica: opponents shoot 1.6% worse than average on shoots from 15 ft out

KAT: opponents shoot 0.6% better than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Nikola Jokic: opponents shoot 1% better than average on shoots from 15 ft out

So I wouldn't call WCS impressive in that respect, in fact he is practically the same at protecting outside shoots as Okafor and Kaminsky:

WCS: opponents shoot 2% better than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Jahlil Okafor: opponents shoot 2.1% better than average on shoots from 15 ft out

Frank Kaminsky: opponents shoot 2.5% better than average on shoots from 15 ft out

That's pretty terrible, again I'm not saying he can't fix that- but right now claiming that he is good has no basis in truth.

King Baller · May 18, 2016

Amit149 said:

I'm not a stats guy or even very argumentative for that matter. But do these stats take into account the rest of the team the player is on? You wrote that Willie allows shooters to shoot 2% better. How do the rest of the Kings stack up? My question then becomes is there more to it than just the single player? Defense is a team effort, right? Then it seems the defensive scheme must play a role in all of this. Like I mentioned I'm not a stats guy and IMO a lot of stats are oversimplifications

Amit149 · May 18, 2016

King Baller said:

Since we are talking about outside shoots defended by a specific player I don't see why there would be a ton of difference between teams, and a lot of this rookies I mentioned comes from terrible defensive teams anyway.

The Kings as a whole are the 8th worst team in the league regarding precentages of 15ft out shoots, but as a team we are still better than WCS, the Kings allow players to shoot 1.1% better- Willie allow them to shoot 2% better.
In fact the 2% better mark is worse than any team in the NBA (the Suns are the worst allowing to shoot 1.7% better).

King Baller · May 18, 2016

Amit149 said:

I'm a bit distracted now, but I will consider this and get back to it. I believe there are other factors you are not taking into account. You would almost need to watch the video for every play Willie was involved in. My guess is that the way Willie was utilized by the COACHES played a large factor in this.

Amit149 · May 18, 2016

King Baller said:

I don't get why it's so weird to you- you really thought he has done an amazing job defending outside shoots? I remember multiple games where guys complained about that in the game threads.

Notice that I'm only talking about outside shoots, in general WCS was pretty average.
And he has been very good at defending the rim stopping guys there at 47.9%, which is among the top for rookies (Porzingis is slightly better with 47.7%- but it is a better result than KAT and Turner for example) and actaully better than both KK and DMC (slightly worse than last years DMC result- 47%) who are pretty good themselves.

I'm also not saying that he will never be a good defender in that respect- he certainly have a lot of tools that can help him with it, but this season he wasn't great at it.

Looking forward to how Joerger will play WCS

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