2016 NBA Draft Discussion
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I am also intrigued by Luwawu. Check out this description by Draft Express:
"
Luwawu has pretty much everything you look for in a two-way role-playing NBA wing. He has strong physical attributes for a shooting guard or small forward, standing (in his words) 6'7 without shoes, 205 pounds, with a 6'11 wingspan, and excellent athletic ability. He is very smooth and fluid, and can play above the rim with ease, sometimes in highlight reel fashion...
Luwawu is also a very good passer, demonstrating strong court vision, and the ability to distribute with either hand in drive and dish situations. He can operate at different speeds, has a powerful first step and long strides as a driver, and thus has strong potential in the pick and roll and attacking closeouts.
Perhaps Luwawu's most NBA ready attribute is his defense. He showed the ability to stay in front of point guards, shooting guards and small forwards in the game we attended, thanks to his quick feet, long arms and ability to get over screens. Mega Leks likes to utilize him at the top of their full-court press, and Luwawu has wreaked quite a bit of havoc in the Adriatic League this year with his very quick hands. "
Sounds like what we need right?
"
Luwawu has pretty much everything you look for in a two-way role-playing NBA wing. He has strong physical attributes for a shooting guard or small forward, standing (in his words) 6'7 without shoes, 205 pounds, with a 6'11 wingspan, and excellent athletic ability. He is very smooth and fluid, and can play above the rim with ease, sometimes in highlight reel fashion...
Luwawu is also a very good passer, demonstrating strong court vision, and the ability to distribute with either hand in drive and dish situations. He can operate at different speeds, has a powerful first step and long strides as a driver, and thus has strong potential in the pick and roll and attacking closeouts.
Perhaps Luwawu's most NBA ready attribute is his defense. He showed the ability to stay in front of point guards, shooting guards and small forwards in the game we attended, thanks to his quick feet, long arms and ability to get over screens. Mega Leks likes to utilize him at the top of their full-court press, and Luwawu has wreaked quite a bit of havoc in the Adriatic League this year with his very quick hands. "
Sounds like what we need right?
I have been watching the Miami Heat in the Playoffs and seeing the success of Winslow. I'm starting to think the Kings should draft the best wing/guard defender available. Jaylen Brown has a reputation as a good defender. What do you guys who watch a lot of college ball think of his defense? Also Kris Dunn is 6'4" and has a rep as a good defender as a PG. Can he defend NBA 2 guards?
Seems like defense is an easier skill to transfer to the NBA in a good coaching environment. Should the Kings focus on a defender with the pick and look for shooting and play making in Free Agency and/or trades?
I know in this era of Warrior domination Three Point Shooting is King but those W's play damn good defense!
Seems like defense is an easier skill to transfer to the NBA in a good coaching environment. Should the Kings focus on a defender with the pick and look for shooting and play making in Free Agency and/or trades?
I know in this era of Warrior domination Three Point Shooting is King but those W's play damn good defense!
You asked for college ball, but, as ElRey said:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Timothe-Luwawu-68219/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Timothe-Luwawu-68219/
All these guys have some flaws. It's a matter of picking your poison. In this case, you have to consider who has the higher ceiling. I doubt that Brown will be there when we pick, but who knows. I actually like the overall skill set of Korkmas better than that of Luwawu. He's a good athlete, way better ball handler, and has just about every shot in his bag of tricks. He's also shown to be a good defender, but with the limitations of being too skinny and weak. He's 6'7" and weights only 185 pounds. He needs about 20 pounds of muscle added, but, will his slight frame allow for that.
Personally, if Hield, Murray, Brown, and Dunn are all off the board when we choose, then I'm taking Poeltl. Best center in the draft, and at that point, I can make an arguement that he's the best player left on the board.
Personally, if Hield, Murray, Brown, and Dunn are all off the board when we choose, then I'm taking Poeltl. Best center in the draft, and at that point, I can make an arguement that he's the best player left on the board.
Korkmaz gets bench/garbage minutes as a designated shooter, while Luwawu is one of main options for his team, so it's not fair to compare their ability to protect the ball at the pro level. Korkmaz is a superior shooter, but that's his only advantage over Luwawu.
Actually wouldn't mind Poeltl. To really understand what he can do in the NBA I would recommend watching this footage of a friendly match against Lithuania:
Looks like an absolutely different player, than in college: lacks strength against grown man, so has to rely on shooting and movement, not on physically dominating inside.
Actually wouldn't mind Poeltl. To really understand what he can do in the NBA I would recommend watching this footage of a friendly match against Lithuania:
I disagree. Korkmaz is a better ball handler than Luwawu. Not really that big a deal for me, but it's true. It may not be fair to compare them, but since we are comparing them, I'm not sure what I should do, but compare them. I have reservations about both players, but then I have reservations about Brown as well.
Nice... I will have to look for more of the HS games. I see quite a few Euro games on NBA channel now which is really nice. I assume they would be on one of those "fox southwest" or "comcast eastern" or whatever channel in the 600s?
I really like him, and maybe we could get him as a 2nd rounder or something unless he moves up.
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The only way Korkmaz is able to get to the rim at the pro level in half-court is by attacking closeouts. Luwawu regularly gets past his defender. It's a function of Korkmaz being 3rd or 4th ballhandler on the floor while Luwawu is one of two main creators for his team. That's why he makes much more mistakes. Plus Mega Leks has only one ok shooter besides frenchman, while Efes has excellent spacing.
Korkmaz is very quick with the ball in the open court, but Luwawu is simply flying, when he doesn't feel the pressure of losing the ball.
Korkmaz is very quick with the ball in the open court, but Luwawu is simply flying, when he doesn't feel the pressure of losing the ball.
Dunn would pair very well with Darren Collison IMHO because they can both play on the ball and off the ball. Two combo guards work well together and thats how I see these guys. Wheeling and dealing dishing and swishing!!! I really like Dunn's potential to guard SGs too....with his length and strength and lateral quickness are elite level as a PG.....though he's not a prototypical PG....he has some Dwayne Wade to his game. He's really sort of the perfect player for our needs....which is probably why he will picked one pick ahead of wherever we pick. 
er er
At 6'4" 220 Dunn is 30 pounds heavier than Ben McLemore. There's also some Tyreke Evans to his game, though Dunn has a bit more bounce to him while Reke has a little more schoolyard in him. I would say he's my #1 favorite player right now and doubt he lasts to #8. If a team takes Murray over Dunn I think they are making a mistake.
er er At 6'4" 220 Dunn is 30 pounds heavier than Ben McLemore. There's also some Tyreke Evans to his game, though Dunn has a bit more bounce to him while Reke has a little more schoolyard in him. I would say he's my #1 favorite player right now and doubt he lasts to #8. If a team takes Murray over Dunn I think they are making a mistake.
Dunn would pair very well with Darren Collison IMHO because they can both play on the ball and off the ball. Two combo guards work well together and thats how I see these guys. Wheeling and dealing dishing and swishing!!! I really like Dunn's potential to guard SGs too....with his length and strength and lateral quickness are elite level as a PG.....though he's not a prototypical PG....he has some Dwayne Wade to his game. He's really sort of the perfect player for our needs....which is probably why he will picked one pick ahead of wherever we pick. er er
At 6'4" 220 Dunn is 30 pounds heavier than Ben McLemore. There's also some Tyreke Evans to his game, though Dunn has a bit more bounce to him while Reke has a little more schoolyard in him. I would say he's my #1 favorite player right now and doubt he lasts to #8. If a team takes Murray over Dunn I think they are making a mistake.
er er At 6'4" 220 Dunn is 30 pounds heavier than Ben McLemore. There's also some Tyreke Evans to his game, though Dunn has a bit more bounce to him while Reke has a little more schoolyard in him. I would say he's my #1 favorite player right now and doubt he lasts to #8. If a team takes Murray over Dunn I think they are making a mistake.
I just used a lottery generator to pick the draft order and got PHX, PHI, LAL, BOS, MIN, NOP, DEN and SAC
Here's how I could see Dunn falling to 8
Suns - Simmons
76ers - Ingram
Lakers - Brown (having missed out on the other SFs)
Celtics - Bender
T'Wolves - Hield
Pelicans - Poeltl
Nuggets - Murray
Kings - Dunn
I'm not as high on Ellenson as some but I've seen a number of mock drafts with him in the top 10 too, so a team ahead of the Kings and looking for a stretch 4, Kaminsky/Love type player could go after him.
The Suns have Bledsoe & Knight (who have to share time at the PG and split SG minutes with Booker)
The Lakers have Russell and Clarkson
The Celtics have a slew of guards including Smart, Thomas and last year's draft pick in Rozier
The Wolves have Rubio (who they may not be married to) and LaVine who they experiment with at the point. I think they target a shooter though.
The Pelicans have Holiday and Tyreke (plus Norris Cole & Eric Gordon)
You shouldn't draft for need, but there isn't a ton that separates guys after the first two picks. I could see J Murray going #3 or #8. Likewise with Hield or Bender or Brown. So if the talent level is about the same then you take the guy that you think fits best. And with lots of teams having starting PGs there's a chance Dunn slips. He's already 22 which may have teams looking for a player with more "potential" and leaving him on the board. A guy like Marquese Chriss (athletic but raw) always seems to move up boards when draft workouts start.
And there's also the possibility of trading up if Dunn is really the guy the Kings want. Or Hield for that matter.
But until reality tells me otherwise I'm going to believe that the new building, new logo, new uniforms & new coach are all part of the Kings luck finally changing and that they'll snag the second pick right behind Philly.
Here's how I could see Dunn falling to 8
Suns - Simmons
76ers - Ingram
Lakers - Brown (having missed out on the other SFs)
Celtics - Bender
T'Wolves - Hield
Pelicans - Poeltl
Nuggets - Murray
Kings - Dunn
I'm not as high on Ellenson as some but I've seen a number of mock drafts with him in the top 10 too, so a team ahead of the Kings and looking for a stretch 4, Kaminsky/Love type player could go after him.
The Suns have Bledsoe & Knight (who have to share time at the PG and split SG minutes with Booker)
The Lakers have Russell and Clarkson
The Celtics have a slew of guards including Smart, Thomas and last year's draft pick in Rozier
The Wolves have Rubio (who they may not be married to) and LaVine who they experiment with at the point. I think they target a shooter though.
The Pelicans have Holiday and Tyreke (plus Norris Cole & Eric Gordon)
You shouldn't draft for need, but there isn't a ton that separates guys after the first two picks. I could see J Murray going #3 or #8. Likewise with Hield or Bender or Brown. So if the talent level is about the same then you take the guy that you think fits best. And with lots of teams having starting PGs there's a chance Dunn slips. He's already 22 which may have teams looking for a player with more "potential" and leaving him on the board. A guy like Marquese Chriss (athletic but raw) always seems to move up boards when draft workouts start.
And there's also the possibility of trading up if Dunn is really the guy the Kings want. Or Hield for that matter.
But until reality tells me otherwise I'm going to believe that the new building, new logo, new uniforms & new coach are all part of the Kings luck finally changing and that they'll snag the second pick right behind Philly.
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K
Just watched a few videos of Jaylen Brown and read some stuff on draftnet and some other sites, he reminds me a little bit of Piston Stanley Johnson can some of the more experienced college viewers give a breakdown of what you think his NBA comparison is and if he would be a good fit here off the bench. Physically looks like he could already bang in the NBA at age 19.
You and I are in agreement on the New Orleans pick. They desperately need a center so they can keep Davis at the PF position. After center, their next biggest need is at the PF position off the bench with Anderson moving on (not a given, but likely) so Ellenson would make some sense there. So if Dunn makes it to the seventh pick, I think our chances of getting him are pretty good. Not sure why everyone has Murray ranked ahead of Hield, unless they're concerned about the age difference.
Physically, Brown is ready to play in the NBA. I think he's a little better athlete than either Winslow or Johnson, and neither of them is too shabby. Brown, like both Winslow and Johnson has the tools to be a lock down defender. Doesn't mean he will, but he's known to be a hard worker and a gym rat, so I think it's possible. Where he's most inconsistent is with his outside shot. I believe he shot under 30% from the three this season. He's not a bad finisher, but his handle is a little loose and he turns the ball over too much. He's dangerous with the ball in the open court, and runs the floor well, getting himself easy baskets. He's a tad undersized for the SF position, but he has a huge wingspan which compensates. He has the athleticism to play SG, but hot the ball handling ability.
Personally, I think Brown should have stayed in school another year, but when your going to get drafted in the top five, it's hard to pass up the money, and if he stayed and didn't improve, he might end up getting drafted lower next year, in a draft that is supposed to be stronger, and deeper. In short, if he's sitting there at eight, and Dunn and Hield are gone, I'm grabbing him and betting on his potential.
Personally, I think Brown should have stayed in school another year, but when your going to get drafted in the top five, it's hard to pass up the money, and if he stayed and didn't improve, he might end up getting drafted lower next year, in a draft that is supposed to be stronger, and deeper. In short, if he's sitting there at eight, and Dunn and Hield are gone, I'm grabbing him and betting on his potential.
Let's talk about Marquese Chriss. He hasn't really been discussed too much yet probably because we were all hoping to be picking a little higher, but he's a hometown kid (born in Sacramento, went to HS in Elk Grove) and he had a heck of a freshman year at Washington. Official measurements aren't out yet and he's only 18 so he could still be growing, but he's about 6'9" in shoes right now with a 7 foot wingspan. At 225 he's also a little on the thin side. This is going to be a problem for him banging in the post until he gets stronger, but fortunately he's got a lot of perimeter skills which make him an intriguing stretch 4 prospect. Let's look at the numbers:
Limited minutes so the counting stats dont jump off the page but the 3pt% is impressive for a 6'9" 18 year old playing his first season in college. The rebounding is a concern, though nearly half of his rebounds were on the offensive end so it looks like he's an above average offensive rebounder and a terrible defensive rebounder. Everybody wants a PF who can block shots and hit threes though which is why he'll get looks in the top 10.
Projecting out to per40 min stats highlights the biggest weaknesses -- rebounding is definitely low for a bigman and the assist to turnover ratio is brutal. Even more worrying though are the 6.5 fouls against 2.6 blocks. 2.6 is good but not great, elite shotblockers are usually around 4 or 5 Blks per 40 min in college (Hassan Whiteside averaged 8.2 per40 in his one season at Marshall!) None of that matters though if he can't stay on the floor because of foul trouble. As a matter of fact, Chriss led the entire NCAA in personal fouls this season. He's a bouncy athlete who can cover a lot of ground on defense but he hasn't learned yet how to pick his spots and play under control. The positives here are scoring efficiency, diverse offensive skillset (a good ratio of FGA/3ptA/FGA), and a good number of steals for his size.
So the numbers alone aren't particularly impressive but we're talking about one of the youngest players in the draft. Chriss is going to be drafted in the lottery because of athleticism and potential (words Kings fans know well which probably send some of you running for the hills). He's got a smooth shooting motion and proved that he could shoot consistently out to the college three point line this year. He showed flashes of a low post game as well but he did most of his damage cleaning up misses or flying in for highlight reel dunks. Since words can't really describe that kind of thing, here's a highlight reel of mostly offense from this season:
There's been some talk of actually trying to develop him as a wing (he was a late bloomer and listed Rudy Gay as an NBA comparison when he was a 6'8" senior in HS) but I get bad Thomas Robinson flashbacks when I try to picture it. His ball skills are decent to good for a PF but not anywhere close to NBA ready for a SF. The post game, pick and pop, and spot-up three should be his bread and butter and with a couple years of hard work in the weight room I can see him eventually excelling as an all-around PF who can score and contribute weak-side basket protection. A slimmer, quicker Al Horford is probably his best-case scenario.
Chriss joins Henry Ellenson, Deyonta Davis, and Skal Labissiere as the high upside one-and-done PF prospects in consideration for lottery teams (with Ivan Rabb deciding to return to Cal). Which of them ranks the highest is a matter of preference as they all have different skillsets and athletic profiles. Offensive versatility and elite physical tools are where Chriss stands out as a prospect. The potential is obvious, but he's not anywhere close to a finished prospect and he's going to need a lot of coaching to get him there. Is he a high-flying, 3 bombing human highlight reel in the making? Is he the Ben McLemore of PFs? Time will tell.
Limited minutes so the counting stats dont jump off the page but the 3pt% is impressive for a 6'9" 18 year old playing his first season in college. The rebounding is a concern, though nearly half of his rebounds were on the offensive end so it looks like he's an above average offensive rebounder and a terrible defensive rebounder. Everybody wants a PF who can block shots and hit threes though which is why he'll get looks in the top 10.
Projecting out to per40 min stats highlights the biggest weaknesses -- rebounding is definitely low for a bigman and the assist to turnover ratio is brutal. Even more worrying though are the 6.5 fouls against 2.6 blocks. 2.6 is good but not great, elite shotblockers are usually around 4 or 5 Blks per 40 min in college (Hassan Whiteside averaged 8.2 per40 in his one season at Marshall!) None of that matters though if he can't stay on the floor because of foul trouble. As a matter of fact, Chriss led the entire NCAA in personal fouls this season. He's a bouncy athlete who can cover a lot of ground on defense but he hasn't learned yet how to pick his spots and play under control. The positives here are scoring efficiency, diverse offensive skillset (a good ratio of FGA/3ptA/FGA), and a good number of steals for his size.
So the numbers alone aren't particularly impressive but we're talking about one of the youngest players in the draft. Chriss is going to be drafted in the lottery because of athleticism and potential (words Kings fans know well which probably send some of you running for the hills). He's got a smooth shooting motion and proved that he could shoot consistently out to the college three point line this year. He showed flashes of a low post game as well but he did most of his damage cleaning up misses or flying in for highlight reel dunks. Since words can't really describe that kind of thing, here's a highlight reel of mostly offense from this season:
There's been some talk of actually trying to develop him as a wing (he was a late bloomer and listed Rudy Gay as an NBA comparison when he was a 6'8" senior in HS) but I get bad Thomas Robinson flashbacks when I try to picture it. His ball skills are decent to good for a PF but not anywhere close to NBA ready for a SF. The post game, pick and pop, and spot-up three should be his bread and butter and with a couple years of hard work in the weight room I can see him eventually excelling as an all-around PF who can score and contribute weak-side basket protection. A slimmer, quicker Al Horford is probably his best-case scenario.
Chriss joins Henry Ellenson, Deyonta Davis, and Skal Labissiere as the high upside one-and-done PF prospects in consideration for lottery teams (with Ivan Rabb deciding to return to Cal). Which of them ranks the highest is a matter of preference as they all have different skillsets and athletic profiles. Offensive versatility and elite physical tools are where Chriss stands out as a prospect. The potential is obvious, but he's not anywhere close to a finished prospect and he's going to need a lot of coaching to get him there. Is he a high-flying, 3 bombing human highlight reel in the making? Is he the Ben McLemore of PFs? Time will tell.
I agree with all of this. Brown is one of my favorite prospects in this draft, but then I always flip over athletic wings with good defensive potential (see also: Stanley Johnson last year). Since KingMilz brought up that comparison, I'll just add that I think Jaylen Brown has better physical tools to guard the perimeter. He's faster than Stanley and he gets off the ground faster and higher which means he can guard quicker wings and probably even some PGs. Stanley is stronger guarding the post though (we just saw him hold position surprisingly well against Lebron in the playoffs). It's hard to fairly compare basketball IQ, but I don't think Brown is as cerebral as a defender, if that makes sense. He's got good instincts and uses his physical tools well but Stanley was one of the smarter defenders I've seen (in his year at Arizona) about anticipating plays and effectively guarding space on the floor rather than just shadowing his man.
If Stanley is a 3/4 combo forward in the NBA I could see Jaylen Brown developing into a 2/3 combo wing though as Baja said he's going to have to improve his jumpshot and ballhandling to really excel in that role. In the meantime he'll be an elite athlete who can stick in a rotation as a defensive role-player and hustle guy. Stanley is closer to reaching his potential but he's still being held back by the inconsistent jumper as well. That athletic SF/PF who can shoot and slide down to smallball C ala Draymond Green is the flavor of the week so Stanley Johnson is going to be tough to pry out of Detroit. In this draft, Jaylen Brown offers a lot of the same potential though.
I'd be thrilled if we have a shot at either Jaylen Brown or Kris Dunn. I think both look like two-way players at their positions with above average size and athleticism. Usually that's the right combination for an All-Star. Assuming we stay where we are at 8, I'm hoping one of those guys falls to us. If not, there's a half dozen high upside picks we could consider and I weigh all of them about equally. This is the time of year where I always wish we had more picks.
If Stanley is a 3/4 combo forward in the NBA I could see Jaylen Brown developing into a 2/3 combo wing though as Baja said he's going to have to improve his jumpshot and ballhandling to really excel in that role. In the meantime he'll be an elite athlete who can stick in a rotation as a defensive role-player and hustle guy. Stanley is closer to reaching his potential but he's still being held back by the inconsistent jumper as well. That athletic SF/PF who can shoot and slide down to smallball C ala Draymond Green is the flavor of the week so Stanley Johnson is going to be tough to pry out of Detroit. In this draft, Jaylen Brown offers a lot of the same potential though.
I'd be thrilled if we have a shot at either Jaylen Brown or Kris Dunn. I think both look like two-way players at their positions with above average size and athleticism. Usually that's the right combination for an All-Star. Assuming we stay where we are at 8, I'm hoping one of those guys falls to us. If not, there's a half dozen high upside picks we could consider and I weigh all of them about equally. This is the time of year where I always wish we had more picks.
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Let's talk about Marquese Chriss. He hasn't really been discussed too much yet probably because we were all hoping to be picking a little higher, but he's a hometown kid (born in Sacramento, went to HS in Elk Grove) and he had a heck of a freshman year at Washington. Official measurements aren't out yet and he's only 18 so he could still be growing, but he's about 6'9" in shoes right now with a 7 foot wingspan. At 225 he's also a little on the thin side. This is going to be a problem for him banging in the post until he gets stronger, but fortunately he's got a lot of perimeter skills which make him an intriguing stretch 4 prospect. Let's look at the numbers:
Limited minutes so the counting stats dont jump off the page but the 3pt% is impressive for a 6'9" 18 year old playing his first season in college. The rebounding is a concern, though nearly half of his rebounds were on the offensive end so it looks like he's an above average offensive rebounder and a terrible defensive rebounder. Everybody wants a PF who can block shots and hit threes though which is why he'll get looks in the top 10.
Projecting out to per40 min stats highlights the biggest weaknesses -- rebounding is definitely low for a bigman and the assist to turnover ratio is brutal. Even more worrying though are the 6.5 fouls against 2.6 blocks. 2.6 is good but not great, elite shotblockers are usually around 4 or 5 Blks per 40 min in college (Hassan Whiteside averaged 8.2 per40 in his one season at Marshall!) None of that matters though if he can't stay on the floor because of foul trouble. As a matter of fact, Chriss led the entire NCAA in personal fouls this season. He's a bouncy athlete who can cover a lot of ground on defense but he hasn't learned yet how to pick his spots and play under control. The positives here are scoring efficiency, diverse offensive skillset (a good ratio of FGA/3ptA/FGA), and a good number of steals for his size.
So the numbers alone aren't particularly impressive but we're talking about one of the youngest players in the draft. Chriss is going to be drafted in the lottery because of athleticism and potential (words Kings fans know well which probably send some of you running for the hills). He's got a smooth shooting motion and proved that he could shoot consistently out to the college three point line this year. He showed flashes of a low post game as well but he did most of his damage cleaning up misses or flying in for highlight reel dunks. Since words can't really describe that kind of thing, here's a highlight reel of mostly offense from this season:
There's been some talk of actually trying to develop him as a wing (he was a late bloomer and listed Rudy Gay as an NBA comparison when he was a 6'8" senior in HS) but I get bad Thomas Robinson flashbacks when I try to picture it. His ball skills are decent to good for a PF but not anywhere close to NBA ready for a SF. The post game, pick and pop, and spot-up three should be his bread and butter and with a couple years of hard work in the weight room I can see him eventually excelling as an all-around PF who can score and contribute weak-side basket protection. A slimmer, quicker Al Horford is probably his best-case scenario.
Chriss joins Henry Ellenson, Deyonta Davis, and Skal Labissiere as the high upside one-and-done PF prospects in consideration for lottery teams (with Ivan Rabb deciding to return to Cal). Which of them ranks the highest is a matter of preference as they all have different skillsets and athletic profiles. Offensive versatility and elite physical tools are where Chriss stands out as a prospect. The potential is obvious, but he's not anywhere close to a finished prospect and he's going to need a lot of coaching to get him there. Is he a high-flying, 3 bombing human highlight reel in the making? Is he the Ben McLemore of PFs? Time will tell.
Limited minutes so the counting stats dont jump off the page but the 3pt% is impressive for a 6'9" 18 year old playing his first season in college. The rebounding is a concern, though nearly half of his rebounds were on the offensive end so it looks like he's an above average offensive rebounder and a terrible defensive rebounder. Everybody wants a PF who can block shots and hit threes though which is why he'll get looks in the top 10.
Projecting out to per40 min stats highlights the biggest weaknesses -- rebounding is definitely low for a bigman and the assist to turnover ratio is brutal. Even more worrying though are the 6.5 fouls against 2.6 blocks. 2.6 is good but not great, elite shotblockers are usually around 4 or 5 Blks per 40 min in college (Hassan Whiteside averaged 8.2 per40 in his one season at Marshall!) None of that matters though if he can't stay on the floor because of foul trouble. As a matter of fact, Chriss led the entire NCAA in personal fouls this season. He's a bouncy athlete who can cover a lot of ground on defense but he hasn't learned yet how to pick his spots and play under control. The positives here are scoring efficiency, diverse offensive skillset (a good ratio of FGA/3ptA/FGA), and a good number of steals for his size.
So the numbers alone aren't particularly impressive but we're talking about one of the youngest players in the draft. Chriss is going to be drafted in the lottery because of athleticism and potential (words Kings fans know well which probably send some of you running for the hills). He's got a smooth shooting motion and proved that he could shoot consistently out to the college three point line this year. He showed flashes of a low post game as well but he did most of his damage cleaning up misses or flying in for highlight reel dunks. Since words can't really describe that kind of thing, here's a highlight reel of mostly offense from this season:
There's been some talk of actually trying to develop him as a wing (he was a late bloomer and listed Rudy Gay as an NBA comparison when he was a 6'8" senior in HS) but I get bad Thomas Robinson flashbacks when I try to picture it. His ball skills are decent to good for a PF but not anywhere close to NBA ready for a SF. The post game, pick and pop, and spot-up three should be his bread and butter and with a couple years of hard work in the weight room I can see him eventually excelling as an all-around PF who can score and contribute weak-side basket protection. A slimmer, quicker Al Horford is probably his best-case scenario.
Chriss joins Henry Ellenson, Deyonta Davis, and Skal Labissiere as the high upside one-and-done PF prospects in consideration for lottery teams (with Ivan Rabb deciding to return to Cal). Which of them ranks the highest is a matter of preference as they all have different skillsets and athletic profiles. Offensive versatility and elite physical tools are where Chriss stands out as a prospect. The potential is obvious, but he's not anywhere close to a finished prospect and he's going to need a lot of coaching to get him there. Is he a high-flying, 3 bombing human highlight reel in the making? Is he the Ben McLemore of PFs? Time will tell.
I wouldn't be too worried about trading down. He's in play at #8 if nobody above us reaches for upside and the consensus top picks are all off the board. Like you said, his potential skillset is exactly what we want next to Cousins. A stretch 4 who can shoot, grab offensive boards, block some shots, disrupt passes, and just generally be a nuisance for the other team. Ideally you'd like someone who's closer to reaching their potential -- drafting an 18 year old puts a lot of pressure on the team to develop that player and that's been a real problem for us for awhile now. But he's a hometown kid which is pretty cool. I'm rooting for him to be something special. Maybe drafting and developing him means we don't need to pay a ton of money for Ryan Anderson and we can go after a SF instead.
Chriss is a block-hunting big, who can barely pass or dribble without couphing up the ball. He might become a very good player, but most likely for his second team.
Dunn and Brown are both very attractive prospects due to the fact, that they have defense to fall back on, so they will have a reason to be on the floor from the start. Brown will likely have a problem fitting into any half-court offense though.
Dunn and Brown are both very attractive prospects due to the fact, that they have defense to fall back on, so they will have a reason to be on the floor from the start. Brown will likely have a problem fitting into any half-court offense though.
Agreed on Chriss. I like him a lot but he's got a loooong way to go to reach his potential. Considering in college he worked the post a lot (something he will struggle a LOT with early on in the NBA) and the fact that he's got good form on his jumper I could see him becoming more of a wing player in the NBA. But he'd need a ton of work on his handle and ball movement first. He's a really talented kid but I don't know that he has any one thing that I can look at right now and say "that's the skill that's going to let him have some early success on the NBA level."
Dunn (should he fall to the Kings) is a very attractive player to me, especially if the Kings are considering letting Rondo walk. Collison, Curry (if re-signed) and Dunn would make for a nice PG rotation any two of the three could share the backcourt at any time.
Agreed on Brown. He's a nice piece on an outside shooting team that likes to get out and run as it would let him focus on slashing and playing defense. But long term I think he has to develop his outside shot to realize his potential.
Dunn (should he fall to the Kings) is a very attractive player to me, especially if the Kings are considering letting Rondo walk. Collison, Curry (if re-signed) and Dunn would make for a nice PG rotation any two of the three could share the backcourt at any time.
Agreed on Brown. He's a nice piece on an outside shooting team that likes to get out and run as it would let him focus on slashing and playing defense. But long term I think he has to develop his outside shot to realize his potential.
Tired a bit of looking up and and down the list of potential Kings coaches (there seems to be more very good options, than available HC jobs, so at this point I just hope Vlade manages to lure one of those), I return to our next hot topic, so I went up and down the draft boards and now I don't like anyone, who will likely be available at #8, Dunn, Hield and Murray included.
Still there are a few guys I really like, though not at #8 obviously (they are actually all mocked at the second round at the moment):
Patrick Mccaw - soph, who will be 21 at the start of the next season, listed at 6'7", 185, so on the wiry side, and as a prototype I would name similar looking players like Will Barton or Josh Richardson. His skillset looks similar as well, except at the same age it might more advanced by quite a margin after huge improvement from his freshman season:
Name--per40---pt----ast----TOs----stl
Barton---------20.4---3.3----2.4----1.6
Richardson----17.7---4.0----2.9----2.3*steal rate is an outlier as before senior season he never had a season with more than 1.4 stls per-40
McCaw---------17.5---4.6----2.4----2.9
So McCaw leads in Ast/TO and steal rates by a margin. While his 3pt percentage doesn't jump at you, he takes and makes a lot of them, even if he's just under-37% career shooter (btw up until this season Buddy Hield was .353% career 3pt-shooter). McCaw upped his FT% to .774 as a sophomore and as even more positive sign he made 40% of his two-pointers, 2/3 of which were unassisted off the dribble mid-range pull-ups and all sorts of "touch" shots closer to the basket (floaters and teardrops). Good handles for SG, and while he doesn't have the first step to blow by defenders, he is pretty good at running P&R. McCaw is currently listed as an early second-rounder everywhere, but I think, after people take a closer look at him he ends up in the twenties. Pesky defender, who clearly needs to get stronger, but moves very well, which coupled with his length and nose for the ball means that McCaw might be a neutral/maybe even positive defender as a rookie already.
Signed with an agent, so he is definitely in.
Due to large number of steals, he got this video
Chinanu Onuaku - young soph, who will only turn 20 at the start of the next season. I wrote about him previously: listed at 6'10", 245 pounds with excellent 9'2" reach. Very productive player on both ends of the floor, who made a huge jump from his freshman campaign: opportunistic scorer, who is an excellent passer (don't let huge amount of TOs fool you as the guy just hasn't got "please no more moving screens" memo), handles are below average for PF/good for a C, very strong rebounder and shot-blocker, who anchored one of the best defenses in the nation, can also step out and contest perimeter, though he's not fluid yet. I was wrong before about his shot as even though Onuaku does have touch, his 12-15-footer will need 2-3 years to get consistency. Despite pretty strong upper body he was moved from time to time by stronger opponents, so improving lower body strength would serve him good, and it would also makes his vertical explosiveness better.
Even though Onuaku got invite to NBA Combine, DX doesn't think he's staying in the draft as he hasn't signed with an agent and they don't project him very high at the moment. At the same time, if he returns, Louisville will have a lot of guys looking at those 80 PF/C minutes as they have 4 guys besides Onuaku, who will want at least 20-25 minutes, and they are all NBA prospects of different levels. In other words he is likely in the came situation like McCaw: easy to see, how someone falls in love with his physical tools/skillset and picks him in early 20s or he might drop to second round.
I'm not sure, how many guys in this draft made behind the back pass in their career, let alone before they were 20:
Dorian Finney-Smith - well, this guy is not a soph, but a senior, and is almost 23 (will be in a couple of days). He wasn't off the charts productive (18.2pts, 10.6rebs, 2.6 asts, 2.4 TOs, 1.2 stls, 1.0 blks per 40), but he doesn't have glaring weaknesses as well. DFS has some very good traits though:
Still there are a few guys I really like, though not at #8 obviously (they are actually all mocked at the second round at the moment):
Patrick Mccaw - soph, who will be 21 at the start of the next season, listed at 6'7", 185, so on the wiry side, and as a prototype I would name similar looking players like Will Barton or Josh Richardson. His skillset looks similar as well, except at the same age it might more advanced by quite a margin after huge improvement from his freshman season:
Name--per40---pt----ast----TOs----stl
Barton---------20.4---3.3----2.4----1.6
Richardson----17.7---4.0----2.9----2.3*steal rate is an outlier as before senior season he never had a season with more than 1.4 stls per-40
McCaw---------17.5---4.6----2.4----2.9
So McCaw leads in Ast/TO and steal rates by a margin. While his 3pt percentage doesn't jump at you, he takes and makes a lot of them, even if he's just under-37% career shooter (btw up until this season Buddy Hield was .353% career 3pt-shooter). McCaw upped his FT% to .774 as a sophomore and as even more positive sign he made 40% of his two-pointers, 2/3 of which were unassisted off the dribble mid-range pull-ups and all sorts of "touch" shots closer to the basket (floaters and teardrops). Good handles for SG, and while he doesn't have the first step to blow by defenders, he is pretty good at running P&R. McCaw is currently listed as an early second-rounder everywhere, but I think, after people take a closer look at him he ends up in the twenties. Pesky defender, who clearly needs to get stronger, but moves very well, which coupled with his length and nose for the ball means that McCaw might be a neutral/maybe even positive defender as a rookie already.
Signed with an agent, so he is definitely in.
Due to large number of steals, he got this video
Chinanu Onuaku - young soph, who will only turn 20 at the start of the next season. I wrote about him previously: listed at 6'10", 245 pounds with excellent 9'2" reach. Very productive player on both ends of the floor, who made a huge jump from his freshman campaign: opportunistic scorer, who is an excellent passer (don't let huge amount of TOs fool you as the guy just hasn't got "please no more moving screens" memo), handles are below average for PF/good for a C, very strong rebounder and shot-blocker, who anchored one of the best defenses in the nation, can also step out and contest perimeter, though he's not fluid yet. I was wrong before about his shot as even though Onuaku does have touch, his 12-15-footer will need 2-3 years to get consistency. Despite pretty strong upper body he was moved from time to time by stronger opponents, so improving lower body strength would serve him good, and it would also makes his vertical explosiveness better.
Even though Onuaku got invite to NBA Combine, DX doesn't think he's staying in the draft as he hasn't signed with an agent and they don't project him very high at the moment. At the same time, if he returns, Louisville will have a lot of guys looking at those 80 PF/C minutes as they have 4 guys besides Onuaku, who will want at least 20-25 minutes, and they are all NBA prospects of different levels. In other words he is likely in the came situation like McCaw: easy to see, how someone falls in love with his physical tools/skillset and picks him in early 20s or he might drop to second round.
I'm not sure, how many guys in this draft made behind the back pass in their career, let alone before they were 20:
Dorian Finney-Smith - well, this guy is not a soph, but a senior, and is almost 23 (will be in a couple of days). He wasn't off the charts productive (18.2pts, 10.6rebs, 2.6 asts, 2.4 TOs, 1.2 stls, 1.0 blks per 40), but he doesn't have glaring weaknesses as well. DFS has some very good traits though:
- NBA-level body with 6'7", 215 pounds frame and 8'10.5" reach, not quite Durant or Giannis, but he would still be one of the longest SFs in the NBA and potentially small-ball PF
- idea of small-ball PF enhanced by his excellent out of his area rebounding: he's great at tracking boards and loose balls
- has good, though inconsistent shot: FTs were a bit shaky during his career in Florida and outside shot appeared only in last two years, but at Portsmouth Invitational DFS was very confident and finished with 6/14 (.429) 3pt and 6/6 FT shooting over the course of 3 games, and a number of those 3s were few feet behind the line.
- very good at moving off the ball: covers a lot of ground with each stride and can get up easily, so he doesn't need a lot of time to convert freebies around the basket. In fact, at Portsmouth Invitational he was catching defense napping for an easy catch and dunk 1-2 times every game, while I don't remember anyone else there doing that at all
- doesn't have handles to drive by defenders or touch to stop and go for pull-ups, but he can attack aggressive closeouts very well due to the same traits, that makes him such a good off the ball finisher
- has good mobility and length, and he gets down in a stance contesting outside, but is rather stiff, so he's not very successful at defending smaller guys. Help defense is not his strong suit either as even though he can occasionally pick up a highlight block, he's not eager to rotate.
- getting back to potential small-ball PF, he played at this position most of his college career, so he knows how to box out, but does not always remember to do it and obviously not strong enough to contest for rebounds inside. If I have to pick an NBA comparison, I would say Derrick Williams, who can actually rebound, defend SF pretty well, and move better off the ball, but is a worse ball-handler. I know, that that description is not actually Derrick Williams, since it corrects most of his weaknesses, but that's who DFS looks like to be.
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I've seen Chriss play quite a bit, and you nailed it when you said he was a giant project. In truth, he doesn't know how to play the game very well. If drafted, he needs to go immediately to a D-League team where he can play every day. He's at least three years away from contributing to an NBA team, with emphasis on the word "contribute". He's a terrible rebounder right now, and a little too disinterested on defense at times. His outside shot shows promise and that, added to his athleticism, and his young age, is what interests teams. My problem is that we need players that can help now, not three years from now. To be honest, I reach for Brice Johnson, who is also a very athletic player and more ready to play now. The only reason he's not rated higher is that he's a senior. But right now, today, Johnson is the better player.
Now of course all this is just my opinion, and I'm sure some will disagree with me. But I'd be very wary of drafting him if you expect him to contribute right away.
Now of course all this is just my opinion, and I'm sure some will disagree with me. But I'd be very wary of drafting him if you expect him to contribute right away.