2016 NBA Draft Discussion
- Thread starter Dime Dropper
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Funny, I just finished watching a high school all star game of sorts with Thon Maker. Gary is right, he needs to get stronger, but there is potential there. As to where he'll go in the draft, it's anyone's guess. He could go anywhere from the middle of the first round, to somewhere in the sccond round. I heard an interview with him, and he says all the right things, and sounds very dedicated to becoming a great player. At times he reminds me a bit of Kevin Garnett. He does have some skills, and although most project him as a PF, I wonder if he could end up being a SF. He would be quite formidable at 7'1". Here's a little video of him. Remember, they only show the good stuff, so take it with a grain of salt.
There's not many players I'm too high on where we will be drafting. Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Brown, Dunn, & Hield are really the only players I'm interested that early, but I'm afraid none of them will be available. I like Rabb & Chriss as I think they would make a great 3 man rotation with Cousins & Cauley-Stein, but I'd rather trade back out of the top 10 to take one of them.
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As I've stated before, Buddy Hield is my choice, and unless we get lucky in the lottery, our chances of landing him. barring a trade, are slim. However there's another player that I like equally as well, and some are projecting that he'll fall to us. I doubt it, but if so, I'd grab him in a heartbeat, and that's Kris Dunn. I love Dunn, and he's by far the best PG in the draft. If you have the chance to get a PG like Dunn, you don't pass it up. Dunn has great size for a PG at 6'4" and a 6'9" wingspan. He already has an NBA body at 205 pounds. He's strong, has very good handles and can score through contact. He has a very good mid-range shot, and a good three point shot, shooting 37.2% last season from the three. He's an excellent passer averaging 6.2 assists per game.
Some have tried to label him as more of a shoot first PG, but I don't agree. I've watched him play for the last three years and Dunn spends the first half of every game trying to get his teammates involved. If it's not happening, then in the second half he'll try to take over the game. But he's a very good passer with great court vision. He's capable of getting anywhere he wants on the court with an excellent crossover, hesitation moves, head fakes, and an explosive first step. Most of his turnovers are self inflicted, which means their correctable. He has that bad habit at times of leaving his feet to pass the ball.
Dunn is a very good athlete, and where he really excells is on the defensive side of the ball. He has the potential to be a ball stopper at the next level. He's able to fight through screens with his strength. Plays the passing lanes like a fiddle, averaging 2.5 steals a game. Get a little lax with the ball and he'll pick your pocket. If you wanted to put two ballhandlers on the floor, you could easily put Dunn at the SG position and not give away any height or strength. As I said, I doubt he'll be there at eight, but if he is, you can't pass on him. Here's a short video of him.
Some have tried to label him as more of a shoot first PG, but I don't agree. I've watched him play for the last three years and Dunn spends the first half of every game trying to get his teammates involved. If it's not happening, then in the second half he'll try to take over the game. But he's a very good passer with great court vision. He's capable of getting anywhere he wants on the court with an excellent crossover, hesitation moves, head fakes, and an explosive first step. Most of his turnovers are self inflicted, which means their correctable. He has that bad habit at times of leaving his feet to pass the ball.
Dunn is a very good athlete, and where he really excells is on the defensive side of the ball. He has the potential to be a ball stopper at the next level. He's able to fight through screens with his strength. Plays the passing lanes like a fiddle, averaging 2.5 steals a game. Get a little lax with the ball and he'll pick your pocket. If you wanted to put two ballhandlers on the floor, you could easily put Dunn at the SG position and not give away any height or strength. As I said, I doubt he'll be there at eight, but if he is, you can't pass on him. Here's a short video of him.
I don't expect him to be there either, but would love to have him on our team and move forward with a Dunn/Collison/Curry PG rotation. Unfortunately, I think the first 6 picks in the draft will be Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Brown, Hield, & Dunn (in no particular order) which leaves us looking at guys like Murray, Poeltl, Luwawu, Jackson, & Labissiere which doesn't really excite me as much as the first 6. I'm really going to be rooting for both Murray & Poeltl to be selected before our pick because if that happens, we'll get one of the 6 that are left over.
I could see us using Gay as a way to trade up in the draft. I think both Boston & New Orleans would have interest. Maybe something like Gay/Belinelli/#8 for Ajinca/Pondexter/Douglas/#6. It gives us a shot at grabbing one of Brown/Dunn/Hield, freeing up $10 mil in cap space, and adding cheap role players who fit well.
I could see us using Gay as a way to trade up in the draft. I think both Boston & New Orleans would have interest. Maybe something like Gay/Belinelli/#8 for Ajinca/Pondexter/Douglas/#6. It gives us a shot at grabbing one of Brown/Dunn/Hield, freeing up $10 mil in cap space, and adding cheap role players who fit well.
Of that final group you listed, the one that excites me the most, and I use the word loosely, is Poeltl. I know we don't have a need for him, but he's going to be a solid to maybe very good player in the NBA. He's only a sophmore, and he plays like a senior. Very good defensive player with a little offense thrown in. As I said before, he reminds me of a young Bogut. If nothing else, he would be insurance if Cousins were to suddenly want to leave. At worse, he's a very tradable asset going forward.
I could live with J. Murray. He has a couple more warts than Hield, but he's still a talented player and only a freshman. Labissiere is a long term project who could turn out to be the best of the group, or not. Frankly I've grown tired of the Perry Jones's of the world. How far Dunn slides depends on the final order after the lottery, and then the needs of those teams. I think Simmons, Ingram, and Bender are in the top three. I think Heild and Brown go four and five. After that it gets tricky. There are some scouts that have Murray listed ahead of Hield simply because he's younger, so I can see him going somewhere in the four, five, and six range. Then is comes down to whether the team at seven needs a PG or not. If not, then maybe, just maybe Dunn slides to us..
It's also possible that a team in the four/five range would swap picks with us if we threw McLemore into the deal. That might be a way to grab Hield. You never know. We have to see who the Kings bring in for a workout, and who stands out at the combine. To my mind, if you can grab a player that will be ready to play in the short term you do it. If that's not possible, then maybe you take a flyer on someone with long range potential. Vlade needs to have a plan on how he's going to approach the future, and stick with it. Vivek needs to step back and give Vlade enough time to implement his plan.
Nice to see Douglas getting some of your love. Not sure we need Ajinca though. I thought Pondexter got traded. The old memory isn't what it used to be.
I could live with J. Murray. He has a couple more warts than Hield, but he's still a talented player and only a freshman. Labissiere is a long term project who could turn out to be the best of the group, or not. Frankly I've grown tired of the Perry Jones's of the world. How far Dunn slides depends on the final order after the lottery, and then the needs of those teams. I think Simmons, Ingram, and Bender are in the top three. I think Heild and Brown go four and five. After that it gets tricky. There are some scouts that have Murray listed ahead of Hield simply because he's younger, so I can see him going somewhere in the four, five, and six range. Then is comes down to whether the team at seven needs a PG or not. If not, then maybe, just maybe Dunn slides to us..
It's also possible that a team in the four/five range would swap picks with us if we threw McLemore into the deal. That might be a way to grab Hield. You never know. We have to see who the Kings bring in for a workout, and who stands out at the combine. To my mind, if you can grab a player that will be ready to play in the short term you do it. If that's not possible, then maybe you take a flyer on someone with long range potential. Vlade needs to have a plan on how he's going to approach the future, and stick with it. Vivek needs to step back and give Vlade enough time to implement his plan.
Nice to see Douglas getting some of your love. Not sure we need Ajinca though. I thought Pondexter got traded. The old memory isn't what it used to be.
I have Ajinca coming here with the thought in mind that we would move Koufos (McLemore/Koufos for Ariza?). Koufos is solid, but I don't want to spend $8 mil a year on a backup center who can't play alongside Cousins. Ajinca can do many of the same things while at $4 mil. Pondexter is still listed on their roster. He was hurt the majority of the year last year, so maybe that's why you think he was on another team.
OK, makes sense! Would love to have Ariza. He does have a lot of miles on him, but so far, has showed no signs of slowing down. I think he's around 30 or 31 years of age. Solid player that can hit the three, and play very good defense. He should be good for at least three more years. I'll leave it to you to acquire him...
Agreed, but I'm not as high on Chriss as you are. Then, I've been known to be wrong. Personally, I think you have to add Poeltl to that list. Right now he's a better player than Rabb, Ellenson, or Chriss. All of whom are PF's. I just think that he has more value and is a better talent right now, today, than the other three. But hey, beauty is in the mind of the beholder...
Has anyone seen Dragan Bender play in game settings (not highlights)?
I haven't, but this is literally DX's scouting report on him as his weakness:
1. Scoring ability
2. Interior defense
3. Rebounding.
This is a surprise to me because you normally expect those to be the strength of a high lottery pick, not weakness.
So this is a player who isn't a scorer, isn't a defender, and not a good rebounder?? Let's assume that his 3-pt shooting translate (a big if), how'd you play him? Just camping at the 3-pt line, and occasionally blocking a shot or making a fancy pass is good enough to be a high lottery pick?
What am I missing?
.
I haven't, but this is literally DX's scouting report on him as his weakness:
1. Scoring ability
2. Interior defense
3. Rebounding.
This is a surprise to me because you normally expect those to be the strength of a high lottery pick, not weakness.
So this is a player who isn't a scorer, isn't a defender, and not a good rebounder?? Let's assume that his 3-pt shooting translate (a big if), how'd you play him? Just camping at the 3-pt line, and occasionally blocking a shot or making a fancy pass is good enough to be a high lottery pick?
What am I missing?
.
Oh, I think Poetl is a better player right now and could be a Bogut-like player but the first thing is that I don't think he would work well with Cousins - assuming Boogie isn't being dealt - and I don't think he's any better than Koufos right now, and maybe not even long term. But the other part of it is that I don't see star potential in Poetl. Good, solid center? Sure. But (at least IMO) you don't take a guy top 10 who is a questionable fit in the short term if you think he's ultimately a role player anyway.
I haven't seen any real film on Bender. But the clips I have seen haven't left me incredibly impressed. I think in part he's being bumped up by Porzingis' success. But KP was a more advanced offensive player - I don't remember seeing too many 7'3" guys coming off pin down screens for mid range jumpers - and showed more fire, at least to my eyes. I'm not quite understanding the hype around Bender, but as I said, I haven't seen much of him.
Is he more like Porzingis or Tskitishvili/Bargnani? I don't know.
But to be honest I was among those questioning if Porzingis would succeed in the NBA. And I figured that if he did he's still have a very rough first season. I don't believe so but maybe I do have a bias.
Is he more like Porzingis or Tskitishvili/Bargnani? I don't know.
But to be honest I was among those questioning if Porzingis would succeed in the NBA. And I figured that if he did he's still have a very rough first season. I don't believe so but maybe I do have a bias.
I'm not particularly high on Bender either. He's not a prolific shooter, he's just a good one. He's pretty mobile and fluid for a guy his size, with some passing ability and skill. But honestly I'm not sure why he is rated so highly either. Maybe you could say because of Porzingis, but Bender has been a big time prospect for years now, long before Porzingis. I haven't seen much of him at all, so I don't want to write him off. He's just not my first choice.
I would add Timothe Luwawu, Skal Labissiere, Thon Maker, and Dejounte Murray to the list too. I know most people consider them risky picks and they are, but I like to draft for upside not immediate production. What I'd prefer to see is a shift in the way that we use the draft. Don't go into the draft thinking you're drafting a key player for next year or someone who is immediately going to bring us wins. You can do that if you're drafting in the top 3 (which we never are) but down at 8 we want to get the player who will end up being the best guy on the board in 5 years -- the diamond in the rough future star who falls later in the draft than they should. We've been overlooking those types of players for years in the hunt for the elusive "NBA ready prospect" -- it could even be someone who is currently projected to go 30th or later. Our best-case scenario is probably Jaylen Brown or Kris Dunn sliding down to us, but I wouldn't rule out anyone at this point.
I think Luwawu ends up as a Sefalosha type player. Maybe a bit more athletic but without the strong rebounding.
Labissiere scares me. I thought he'd be a LaMarcus Aldridge type player but I watched a kid that just looked like he didn't belong on the floor in NCAA games. To be fair, he did show some signs of life as the season progressed but I'm not sure what his ceiling or his floor is as an NBA player.
If I squint hard Thon Maker looks a lot like Serge Ibaka or maybe a poor man's KG. But he's a looooong way off and he doesn't necessarily show a good feel for the game.
I like Dejounte Murray and I could see him as a Jordan Clarkson or Jamal Crawford type. I don't think he's a pure PG and right now he (1) is a poor shooter and (2) takes almost ALL of his threes as catch and shoots. He's not a guy that creates looks and his only real weapon is attacking the basket, something he'll struggle with on the next level unless he gets stronger and/or craftier.
Labissiere scares me. I thought he'd be a LaMarcus Aldridge type player but I watched a kid that just looked like he didn't belong on the floor in NCAA games. To be fair, he did show some signs of life as the season progressed but I'm not sure what his ceiling or his floor is as an NBA player.
If I squint hard Thon Maker looks a lot like Serge Ibaka or maybe a poor man's KG. But he's a looooong way off and he doesn't necessarily show a good feel for the game.
I like Dejounte Murray and I could see him as a Jordan Clarkson or Jamal Crawford type. I don't think he's a pure PG and right now he (1) is a poor shooter and (2) takes almost ALL of his threes as catch and shoots. He's not a guy that creates looks and his only real weapon is attacking the basket, something he'll struggle with on the next level unless he gets stronger and/or craftier.
I think there's a real possibility that PG Kris Dunn falls to the Kings. Let's look at the teams ahead of the Kings, and their need for a PG. (Of course this is all pointless right now, since we don't know the draft order)
So the only teams looking to draft a PG would be the Celtics and the Pelicans.
Dunn seems like the ultimate target. He's everything Elfird Payton is, but a much better shooter, and a lot more aggressive.
- Sixers: Yes
- Lakers: No
- Celtics: Yes
- Suns: No
- Timberwolves: No
- Pelicans: Yes
- Nuggets: No
So the only teams looking to draft a PG would be the Celtics and the Pelicans.
- The Celtics have Isaiah Thomas, but could they be looking at a higher ceiling PG? They drafted Marcus Smart(6th overall) 2 years ago, and Terry Rozier(16th overall) last year. Do the Celtics really draft a PG after drafting 2 in two consecutive years?
- The Pelicans have Jrue Holiday, but he hasn't been healthy for the past 3-4 years. They could easily be taking a PG in this draft. However, Eric Gordon is parting away in FA. Both guard positions will become a big need for the Pelicans. Would they rather draft a PG, or a SG?
Dunn seems like the ultimate target. He's everything Elfird Payton is, but a much better shooter, and a lot more aggressive.
I agree with your first point (that we really won't know until after the lottery). But as it stands now, I think you undersell the T-wolves here. Weren't there some rumblings that they were floating Rubio trades at the deadline? He's a bit older than their core, and doesn't pencil out as an amazing long-term fit with their young guard (LaVine). At the very least, there's no reason for them NOT to pick Dunn if he is BPA.
As for the Celtics, if they fall a bit from 3 I could see them picking Dunn as well. Ainge seems more concerned about asset acquisition than fit with his picks.
As for the Celtics, if they fall a bit from 3 I could see them picking Dunn as well. Ainge seems more concerned about asset acquisition than fit with his picks.
T-Wolves are in a unique scenario. Do they see LaVine as a PG moving forward? If they do, they have no reason at all to draft Dunn. Just let Rubio handle the job until LaVine is ready to take over. Rubio also isn't all that old. He's only 25. I think if the Timberwolves don't think LaVine can be their PG of the future, and they give up on Rubio, I honestly don't think they'll draft Dunn.
Timberwolves are a team full of potential ball dominant guys. KAT: Ball dominant. Wiggins: Ball dominant. LaVine: Not as ball dominant.
If you want KAT/Wiggins/LaVine at their max potential (superstar/allstar), they'll need the ball in their hands a lot. I don't think Dunn is a very good fit with their roster. He's a ball dominant PG that isn't a great shooter(Rubio is currently a better shooter). I'm also not sure that Dunn can play off-ball. So you replace Rubio with someone who is exactly like him, except a better scorer, but doesn't bring the same playmaking nor leadership qualities. That's a hefty hit.
Celts desperately need a better big man. They might just go BPA. I can see the Celts taking a PG too, but I feel like they'll take one later. I think they have 2 other 1st rounders.
Timberwolves are a team full of potential ball dominant guys. KAT: Ball dominant. Wiggins: Ball dominant. LaVine: Not as ball dominant.
If you want KAT/Wiggins/LaVine at their max potential (superstar/allstar), they'll need the ball in their hands a lot. I don't think Dunn is a very good fit with their roster. He's a ball dominant PG that isn't a great shooter(Rubio is currently a better shooter). I'm also not sure that Dunn can play off-ball. So you replace Rubio with someone who is exactly like him, except a better scorer, but doesn't bring the same playmaking nor leadership qualities. That's a hefty hit.
Celts desperately need a better big man. They might just go BPA. I can see the Celts taking a PG too, but I feel like they'll take one later. I think they have 2 other 1st rounders.
Yeah, you guys got me on the Rubio age thing. Forgot he was so young (although he IS still older than their core!).
Again, though, reports were they considered dealing him at the deadline. I imagine they will be more flexible about need/fit than you suggest.
Again, though, reports were they considered dealing him at the deadline. I imagine they will be more flexible about need/fit than you suggest.