Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]

[Gilles]

Trevor Ariza, Mike Dunleavy, Khris Middleton, Carroll (still not a great shooter, but he was very bad in college), same for Caron Butler; Ibaka, Patterson and Speights made massive improvements among bigs.

Porzingis is not a great shooter btw, and WCS only needs to be decent, while wide open, to be effective.

 

[Sac.Kings]

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/duke/mike-dunleavy-jr

Mike dunleavy has always been a good shooter, even in college. Here are the stats. Carroll doesn't count he's not a prolific shooter and is respectable from distance, not great.

http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXaXXarizatr01.html

It took Trevor Ariza nearly a decade to improve his three point %, again showing that the older you get the harder it is.

http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXpXXpattepa01.html

Patrick Patterson shot 35% from 3 in college, 37% in the NBA, not a massive improvement as you suggest.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/caron-butler-1.html

Caron Butler shot over 36% from three during college, one year averaging 40% from downtown. Again, not a massive improvement from college to NBA.

Listen, I'm not trying to be annoying with this, but the general trend (again, there are exceptions), is a good shooter is usually a good shooter from an earlier age and the older you get the harder it is to really make a significant improvement.

 

[rainmaker]

Listen, I'm not trying to be annoying with this, but the general trend (again, there are exceptions), is a good shooter is usually a good shooter from an earlier age and the older you get the harder it is to really make a significant improvement.

And you'd be right. Exceptions can always be found, but there's a reason they're exceptions, it ain't the norm. And even the names pointed out above are borderline. None of them were poor shooters who became above average.

The exception which really stands out to me is Kidd, became an above average spot up shooter late in his career. But it also took well over a decade for him to get there. Like your handle, shooting and shooting touch is usually developed well before you hit the NBA.

But in general, the list of bigs who were poor shooters when drafted and remained poor shooters is much, much longer than those who became good shooters. Even what Ibaka has done is an exception. In evaluating a shooter, looking at %'s can be misleading. I look at touch, rotation on the ball, balance, mechanics, fluidity. For me, Porzingis has the tools which likely make him a good shooter in this league. The style of play in Europe vs here also plays into it. They don't have the double team/penetration dynamic we do here to the extent we do.

 

[Bricklayer]

Shooting is a skill that can be worked on. Even at an older age. But history suggests its more of a deficiency that can be brought up to par, to average. Being a special shooter is like being a special anything else, you've either got it or you don't early on.

BTW a name putting the lie to that supposition: Kobe Bryant.

 

[Sac.Kings]

And you'd be right. Exceptions can always be found, but there's a reason they're exceptions, it ain't the norm. And even the names pointed out above are borderline. None of them were poor shooters who became above average.

The exception which really stands out to me is Kidd, became an above average spot up shooter late in his career. But it also took well over a decade for him to get there. Like your handle, shooting and shooting touch is usually developed well before you hit the NBA.

But in general, the list of bigs who were poor shooters when drafted and remained poor shooters is much, much longer than those who became good shooters. Even what Ibaka has done is an exception. In evaluating a shooter, looking at %'s can be misleading. I look at touch, rotation on the ball, balance, mechanics, fluidity. For me, Porzingis has the tools which likely make him a good shooter in this league. The style of play in Europe vs here also plays into it. They don't have the double team/penetration dynamic we do here to the extent we do.

There is a lot more to shooting than just percentages, I will certainly agree with you on that, but for time's sake, % is quick and easy. I never played college ball, but I did play in high school and the only thing I was ever good at was shooting, and I used to be really good. I naturally gravitate towards liking shooters more than any other types of players, so I critique the hell out of them. For a 7-1 individual, Porzingis has solid form. Again, we don't need him to be a 7-1 version of Ray Allen, but even if he is at ~42% to 45% from mid-range, he would be enough of a threat that his defender couldn't cheat off of him. I will say this, I am more confident in Porzingis's ability to become a good shooter (for a big man) than I am of WCS for the reason you already said, the style of play in Europe. In regards to Kidd, he definitely improved drastically and now he is in the top 6-8 all time in threes made. Go figure. Ibaka is certainly an exception, but perhaps it was something he was decent in to begin with and never allowed to really use it.

The thought of a 7-1 big man who can shoot the mid-range at a respectable clip, be a weak side shot blocker, and be able to drive hard to the hole definitely deserves heavy consideration.

 

[Sac.Kings]

Shooting is a skill that can be worked on. Even at an older age. But history suggests its more of a deficiency that can be brought up to par, to average. Being a special shooter is like being a special anything else, you've either got it or you don't early on.

BTW a name putting the lie to that supposition: Kobe Bryant.

I agree and I would not deny that. You can certainly become respectable, maybe even good, at shooting if you put in the work. The chances of a player becoming great, however, is slim to none.

Kobe is a little all over the place with his three point %, but was quite consistent during his prime. He's a solid and at times streaky 3 point shooter.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html

 

[rainmaker]

Porzingis shot 46% from 3 in 16 Eurocup games this season.

It's not like he's a poor shooter even going by %'s. Eurocup is a bit more open than the ACB, which likely played into that. And the NBA is more open than both. He'd get easier shots off the attention Cuz draws than what he had to do in the ACB.

 

[kingsboi]

Shooting is a skill that can be worked on. Even at an older age. But history suggests its more of a deficiency that can be brought up to par, to average. Being a special shooter is like being a special anything else, you've either got it or you don't early on.

BTW a name putting the lie to that supposition: Kobe Bryant.

Jason Kidd comes to mind.

 

[Gilles]

Shooting has 3 basic indicators: 3p%, 3PA and FT% (FTA can only be used as an indicator of FT% reliability).
Having 3p% under .350, 3PA under 1.5 per game or FT% under .700 makes you a suspect shooter. 3p% over .400 and 3PA over 5.0 per 36 minutes and FT% over .800 (maybe in adjacent seasons) allow to consider one a very good shooter.
There's also a matter of two very different skills: pullup jumper (coming to a complete stop and then making a balanced jumpshot) and set jumper, when good shooters usually only turn their torso towards the basket upon catching the ball, since their feet are usually set (sometimes ball comes from under the basket, so there's no movement of the body other than jumping straight up), and balance between the two often skews resulting percentages. Plus some guys surprisingly excel at first, but not the second.

Jason Kidd has shown to be decent in college already in all 3 markers. He just drifted towards more set jumpers as he aged, so his improvement actually wasn't that impressive.

Eurocup teams are rather poor, and two thirds of them are worse, than the very bottom of ACB. And in ACB Porzingis showed to be a 31 3pt% (4 shots per 36, almost all of them spot shooting) and 75FT% shooter, which makes him a solid-to-good set shooter.

There is a lot more to shooting than just percentages, I will certainly agree with you on that, but for time's sake, % is quick and easy. I never played college ball, but I did play in high school and the only thing I was ever good at was shooting, and I used to be really good. I naturally gravitate towards liking shooters more than any other types of players, so I critique the hell out of them. For a 7-1 individual, Porzingis has solid form. Again, we don't need him to be a 7-1 version of Ray Allen, but even if he is at ~42% to 45% from mid-range, he would be enough of a threat that his defender couldn't cheat off of him. I will say this, I am more confident in Porzingis's ability to become a good shooter (for a big man) than I am of WCS for the reason you already said, the style of play in Europe. In regards to Kidd, he definitely improved drastically and now he is in the top 6-8 all time in threes made. Go figure. Ibaka is certainly an exception, but perhaps it was something he was decent in to begin with and never allowed to really use it.
The thought of a 7-1 big man who can shoot the mid-range at a respectable clip, be a weak side shot blocker, and be able to drive hard to the hole definitely deserves heavy consideration.

1. Weak side shot blockers come with different types of impact. And I already posted numbers, that show Porzingis was pretty far off from elite.
2. Porzingis' in-game drives are rather slow straight-line ones - he can't use those in NBA regularly.
Then there's a matter of his relative defensive ability at PF with his frame - he will be a plus defender, but how big that plus would become?

 

[Bricklayer]

I agree and I would not deny that. You can certainly become respectable, maybe even good, at shooting if you put in the work. The chances of a player becoming great, however, is slim to none.

Kobe is a little all over the place with his three point %, but was quite consistent during his prime. He's a solid and at times streaky 3 point shooter.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html

Not threes.

Kobe is one of the great midrange shooters of all time. He was not as a rookie.

 

[Bricklayer]

Jason Kidd comes to mind.

Yeah, but Kidd...I mean, he eventually could hit a standstill three, and it helped his game. But he was hardly some deadly shooter you feared, and it took him 10 years just to become one you didn't ignore.

 

[Flopi]

A couple of thoughts :

1) Talking about stats, shot difficulty has also to be taken into account. Example: Steve Kerr had a .52 3PT% season but, in my opinion, Stephen Curry is a much better shooter because Curry takes a high volume of difficult shots while Kerr basically just took wide open set jumpshots.

2) The brain argument is completely false: you are basically saying that nothing can be taught after 20 years old... Actually, the number of neurons is less important than the connections between them. And those connections can be made/modified all life long.

3) People are acting like WCS needs to be the new Nowitzki. If he can just make wide open midrange jumpers, he'll be more than OK in this Kings team. And given the recent workout videos, I don't see why he could not.

 

[Albatros]

putting threes in would be great. Would also be great to stop every single team in the nba shooting the **** out of us from three every single night.

Trading Ben would be a start.

 

[Sac.Kings]

A couple of thoughts :

1) Talking about stats, shot difficulty has also to be taken into account. Example: Steve Kerr had a .52 3PT% season but, in my opinion, Stephen Curry is a much better shooter because Curry takes a high volume of difficult shots while Kerr basically just took wide open set jumpshots.

2) The brain argument is completely false: you are basically saying that nothing can be taught after 20 years old... Actually, the number of neurons is less important than the connections between them. And those connections can be made/modified all life long.

3) People are acting like WCS needs to be the new Nowitzki. If he can just make wide open midrange jumpers, he'll be more than OK in this Kings team. And given the recent workout videos, I don't see why he could not.

You lose neurons throughout your entire life. The most you ever have is as a young kid and it's downhill from there. Yes you can modify them (I have said this already multiple times) but you can't grow new ones. A good shooter from an early age will create those neurons to be a good shooter for the rest of his professional career. A poor shooter who doesn't have these connections will not have the same amount of connections as the guy who was always a good shooter. There's plenty of evidence to support this. There's a reason the word potential exists in the NBA, but there's a time limit to it. IMO, after 24-25 years old, if you haven't reached your potential, you probably won't.

 

[206Fan]

Porzingis is a good shooter... don't see how anyone could argue this. In all of 2015, he made his 3s at .359% on 2.34 attempts a game. He shot his FTs at .752% at 2.5 attempts a game.

Everything is solid about his motion and release.

 

[Chupacabra]

putting threes in would be great. Would also be great to stop every single team in the nba shooting the **** out of us from three every single night.

Trading Ben would be a start.

A start to what? Making 3's or stoping other teams from making them? Ben was good at both before the FO power struggle sabotaged the on-court play.

 

[Albatros]

A start to what? Making 3's or stoping other teams from making them? Ben was good at both before the FO power struggle sabotaged the on-court play.

Both.

 

[Kingster]

Cousins, obviously.

Really? The guy who needs to drastically reduce his turnovers? I guess you think Collison is the analogue for CP3?

 

[funkykingston]

Really? The guy who needs to drastically reduce his turnovers? I guess you think Collison is the analogue for CP3?

Cousins needs to drastically reduce his turnovers for the Kings offense to be more successful.

Cousins has the ability to be a very good passing big man.

Both of these statements are true.

The issue being addressed was the assumption that Cousins and Cauley-Stein would be a poor pairing because of a lack of spacing and presumed inability to operate well together on offense. My only point was that DeAndre Jordan is even more limited than Cauley-Stein offensively and yet the Clippers offense seems to work just fine.

I never said anything about Collison or Paul, you did.

 

[randymoss1881]

http://mobile.philly.com/sports/sixers/?wss=/philly/sports/sixers&id=307217801

Magic made a promise to Porzingis they would draft him in in the lottery. We have to hope the top 4 is towns,Okafor,russell, and Mudiya cause orlando will take Porzingis if he's there.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

http://mobile.philly.com/sports/sixers/?wss=/philly/sports/sixers&id=307217801

Magic made a promise to Porzingis they would draft him in in the lottery. We have to hope the top 4 is towns,Okafor,russell, and Mudiya cause orlando will take Porzingis if he's there.

Let's not over-interpret that article. It doesn't say anything about a promise, it says the Magic "reportedly still want to select him with the fifth overall pick".

 

[Kingster]

Not threes.

Kobe is one of the great midrange shooters of all time. He was not as a rookie.

Kobe was 17 when he was drafted.

 

[Kingster]

Cousins needs to drastically reduce his turnovers for the Kings offense to be more successful.

Cousins has the ability to be a very good passing big man.

Both of these statements are true.

The issue being addressed was the assumption that Cousins and Cauley-Stein would be a poor pairing because of a lack of spacing and presumed inability to operate well together on offense. My only point was that DeAndre Jordan is even more limited than Cauley-Stein offensively and yet the Clippers offense seems to work just fine.

I never said anything about Collison or Paul, you did.

That's not the issue I brought up. You did. Specifically, many on this board have bought into how easy it would be to pass over the top to WCS, just as Paul passes over the top to Jordan when Jordan's man leaves him. Well, if you don't have Paul on the Kings, and you don't have Griffin on the Kings, that over the top pass cannot be blithely assumed to occur.

 

[funkykingston]

That's not the issue I brought up. You did. Specifically, many on this board have bought into how easy it would be to pass over the top to WCS, just as Paul passes over the top to Jordan when Jordan's man leaves him. Well, if you don't have Paul on the Kings, and you don't have Griffin on the Kings, that over the top pass cannot be blithely assumed to occur.

That's exactly my point. I've been arguing that Cousins and WCS could work as a front court pair. I never said anything about Chris Paul. You did. And it's not exactly germane to my original point. Obviously the Kings won't be the Clippers or the Warriors or anyone else. I simply think Cousins and Cauley-Stein can function well together.

Right. Offensively Boogie and Cauley-Stein would be like Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan respectively. And in situations where there's just nobody that can handle Cousins in the block you pull WCS for another shooter with Gay moving to the PF and play like Houston in the Olajuwon days.

I can think of one item that would preclude the Kings not being able to run their offense like the Clippers - Chris Paul. He's the best player in the league at passing over the top while on the run. And that dynamic assumes there would only be one player - the pg - passing the ball over the top to WCS. How is the rest of the team going to do at something that many are blithely assuming will easily happen? The Kings better get a lot more players who are better passers if they want to be throwing rim leaders to WCS.

My only point all along is that Cauley-Stein could coexist offensively with Cousins. That he moves without the ball well enough that his man won't leave him to double Cousins or it'd lead to an easy dunk just as it does with Griffin and Jordan.

If your main contention is that Collison isn't as good a point guard as Chris Paul I don't think you're going to find many people willing to argue that point.

But if you're saying that DeAndre Jordan (or by extension WCS who we've been discussing in relation to DJ) isn't a useful player without a PG of the caliber of CP3 then that's certainly debatable.

 

[Kingster]

.
My only point all along is that Cauley-Stein could coexist offensively with Cousins. That he moves without the ball well enough that his man won't leave him to double Cousins or it'd lead to an easy dunk just as it does with Griffin and Jordan.

If your main contention is that Collison isn't as good a point guard as Chris Paul I don't think you're going to find many people willing to argue that point.

But if you're saying that DeAndre Jordan (or by extension WCS who we've been discussing in relation to DJ) isn't a useful player without a PG of the caliber of CP3 then that's certainly debatable.

That's what I don't buy. There's no free lunch in the NBA. There is no "easy dunk." If you are a poor offensive player, the opposing team will find a way to take advantage of it. This idea that just like with Jordan an easy-peasy over the top pass will occur with WCS when the opposing team leaves him forgets that there are two people involved with the pass - the recipient and the passer. I don't think that over the top pass is going to occur nearly as much as people think, largely because you don't have great passers on this team to do it.

 

[Kingster]

Hezonja getting Divac love?

http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2015/6/17/8796287/2015-nba-draft-vlade-divac-wants-mario-hezonja

I'm not counting the chick before it hatches, but I could see this happening for all the reasons I've mentioned before:

1) Potential 2-way player
2) Versatile
3) Can swing between 2 and 3
4) Highly athletic
5) Good shooter
6) Good passer
7) High BBIQ
8) Major swag

Does he fit with what Vlade wants - a pass oriented versatile team? Yes, he has the skills and the BBIQ. Vlade liked Christie, but he also knows that Christie was traded for the 13th pick in the draft - Corliss Williamson. If you want to add a two-way star to your talent base, you need someone with more than Christie potential at #6. Hezonja could be that guy.

 

[funkykingston]

Hezonja getting Divac love?

http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2015/6/17/8796287/2015-nba-draft-vlade-divac-wants-mario-hezonja

I'm not counting the chick before it hatches, but I could see this happening for all the reasons I've mentioned before:

1) Potential 2-way player
2) Versatile
3) Can swing between 2 and 3
4) Highly athletic
5) Good shooter
6) Good passer
7) High BBIQ
8) Major swag

Does he fit with what Vlade wants - a pass oriented versatile team? Yes, he has the skills and the BBIQ. Vlade liked Christie, but he also knows that Christie was traded for the 13th pick in the draft - Corliss Williamson. If you want to add a two-way star to your talent base, you need someone with more than Christie potential at #6. Hezonja could be that guy.

I like Hezonja but I'm not sure he has more potential than Christie. He hasn't shown an ability or willingness to pass and defensively he's not great laterally combined with not really showing much interest in locking guys up.

I think people underestimate how important DC was to those great Kings teams. He was often the primary ballhandler, was a fantastic post entry passer, was both an elite team defender and man defender and consistently made good decisions with the ball. In fact, all the areas Doug excelled at are almost exactly the areas I have concern about Hezonja with.

But considering I'm just not high on Mudiay I don't think I'd be up in arms if Hezonja was the pick, especially if the Magiç take Cauely-Stein as I expect.

That's what I don't buy. There's no free lunch in the NBA. There is no "easy dunk." If you are a poor offensive player, the opposing team will find a way to take advantage of it. This idea that just like with Jordan an easy-peasy over the top pass will occur with WCS when the opposing team leaves him forgets that there are two people involved with the pass - the recipient and the passer. I don't think that over the top pass is going to occur nearly as much as people think, largely because you don't have great passers on this team to do it.

I think you're oversimplifying things to the point of ridiculousness here. Yes, I believe Cousins can pass to Cauley-Stein when doubled like Griffin does to Jordan. I also believe WCS will score on dives when Cousins is doubled on either block just as he will on dish offs in Karl's dribble drive offense. He'll score in transition, on put backs and occasionally on post ups if he's got a mouse in the house. But I also think he'll have just enough of a midrange jumper to be reliable from the free throw line extended. His main value is on defense and there may be times when his limited offense hinders the team. That's also true of very good offensive players who are liabilities defensively. It's a matter of whether the good outweighs the bad and in his case I believe it does.

 

[206Fan]

I like Hezonja but I'm not sure he has more potential than Christie. He hasn't shown an ability or willingness to pass and defensively he's not great laterally combined with not really showing much interest in locking guys up.

I think people underestimate how important DC was to those great Kings teams. He was often the primary ballhandler, was a fantastic post entry passer, was both an elite team defender and man defender and consistently made good decisions with the ball. In fact, all the areas Doug excelled at are almost exactly the areas I have concern about Hezonja with.

But considering I'm just not high on Mudiay I don't think I'd be up in arms if Hezonja was the pick, especially if the Magiç take Cauely-Stein as I expect.



I think you're oversimplifying things to the point of ridiculousness here. Yes, I believe Cousins can pass to Cauley-Stein when doubled like Griffin does to Jordan. I also believe WCS will score on dives when Cousins is doubled on either block just as he will on dish offs in Karl's dribble drive offense. He'll score in transition, on put backs and occasionally on post ups if he's got a mouse in the house. But I also think he'll have just enough of a midrange jumper to be reliable from the free throw line extended. His main value is on defense and there may be times when his limited offense hinders the team. That's also true of very good offensive players who are liabilities defensively. It's a matter of whether the good outweighs the bad and in his case I believe it does.

I think we will all be surprised by how good Hezonja is..only problem is that he should probably be starting which means Ben is out? Or Rudy is PF?
Stauskas-Hezonja on the bench would be fun to watch, but not enough touches for everyone.

In response to WCS, I don't think a pairing of Cousins-WCS would work like Griffin-DeAndre. Griffin is a better ball handler and passer than Cuz is.(Cuz is a better passer out of the post). I just don't know how much the offense would work. WCS is a very active player so he'd always run around trying to get the ball. Problem is, if it's not a clear dunk, chances are he's going to miss...

I don't know how Cuz will respond having a teammate who can actually go up there and catch lobs. He's never played along side that type of player. Teams will always leave Cauley Stein unattended to guard Cousins.

Most of the reason why DeAndre is successful on offense is because of his teammates. The only player who can throw lobs on this team is Rudy....not an understatement.

 

[funkykingston]

I think we will all be surprised by how good Hezonja is..only problem is that he should probably be starting which means Ben is out? Or Rudy is PF?
Stauskas-Hezonja on the bench would be fun to watch, but not enough touches for everyone.

In response to WCS, I don't think a pairing of Cousins-WCS would work like Griffin-DeAndre. Griffin is a better ball handler and passer than Cuz is.(Cuz is a better passer out of the post). I just don't know how much the offense would work. WCS is a very active player so he'd always run around trying to get the ball. Problem is, if it's not a clear dunk, chances are he's going to miss...

I don't know how Cuz will respond having a teammate who can actually go up there and catch lobs. He's never played along side that type of player. Teams will always leave Cauley Stein unattended to guard Cousins.

Most of the reason why DeAndre is successful on offense is because of his teammates. The only player who can throw lobs on this team is Rudy....not an understatement.

Hezonja won't start over Ben his rookie year. He's just not going to be ready. Definitely a lot of talent and potential though.

And again I think people are getting too hung up on Cauley-Stein and lobs for dunks as his main (or apparently in some minds "only") offensive contribution. The best front court pairing Cousins has ever had is probably Dalembert and I'm not sure why people think WCS will be any worse offensively than Sammy, especially in time.

 

[206Fan]

Hezonja getting Divac love?

http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2015/6/17/8796287/2015-nba-draft-vlade-divac-wants-mario-hezonja

I'm not counting the chick before it hatches, but I could see this happening for all the reasons I've mentioned before:

1) Potential 2-way player
2) Versatile
3) Can swing between 2 and 3
4) Highly athletic
5) Good shooter
6) Good passer
7) High BBIQ
8) Major swag

Does he fit with what Vlade wants - a pass oriented versatile team? Yes, he has the skills and the BBIQ. Vlade liked Christie, but he also knows that Christie was traded for the 13th pick in the draft - Corliss Williamson. If you want to add a two-way star to your talent base, you need someone with more than Christie potential at #6. Hezonja could be that guy.

Why doesn't STR writers look more into prospects before writing about them? Not one mention in the article about his size...or his ability to play SF.