Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]
- Thread starter hrdboild
- Start date
The only way I think we get another lottery pick is if we offer a package of Ben+JT or Ben+Nik. The only team I see needing a desperate SG is Charlotte. They drafted PJ Hairston with a late 1st round pick last year, but he hasn't shown much. They have Gerald Henderson who they like better as a backup/bench. A lot of drafts have them taking Devin Booker. Maybe they like Ben? I think Payne goes anywhere from 7-18.
1. Age is not a good indicator of what stage of development a player is at. Guys like Towns, Okafor, Turner or Porzingis (all 2 years younger) spent (much) more time playing basketball and developing their skills up to this moment. And Cal sucks at developing, since he gets shiny new toys every year. So the idea is simple: WCS is not so much low-skilled as he is severely underdeveloped. His skill level is currently mediocre, because he started very late and didn't have access to very good coaching. Until last summer he hasn't really worked on his game - that's where talk about "not being interested in the game" comes from in part.
2. Defensive rebounding rate is useless for predicting rebounding ability in the pros. Offensive rebounding rate is a good indicator though. Up until last summer WCS was 7'/220. That's not even close to your typical rebounding big. WCS still posted 12.2 OReb%. Guys with similar dimensions doesn't do well: John Henson (10.8 OReb%), Ed Davis (10.8 OReb%), Nerlens Noel (10.4 OReb%) or Christian Wood (9.6 OReb%) to name a few. And WCS hasn't really improved his strength, especially core, between freshman and sophomore year. That was another symptom of "not being interested in the game" and actually my main objection, when Baja brought up his name last spring as a "must draft" (he didn't declare).
These two games, especially vs Michigan St, show, how bad he was at keeping position and even his balance just a year ago.
3. Last summer WCS added 20 pounds, got a lot better core strength and balance. So how did he managed to post worse OReb%? Offensive rebounding numbers of WCS this year were suppressed by his role. He spent a lot of time this season being basically boxed out, whenever he was closer than 12 feet to the basket - teams preferred to glue a front court player to him to neutralize allez-oop threat and basically played 4-on-4. In games vs Notre Dame or Wisconsin, for example, Towns was posting without double-team coming from Cauley-Stein's man, even though Connaughton or Hayes were often 3-4 feet from the action. They still had one hand on WCS to not lose touch with him and give up easy basket. Plus this year Wildcats had really bad spacing with Lyles at 3, so Cauley-Stein spent a lot more time away from the basket, than he should've had given his current skillset. Rebounding numbers for moderately physical guys, who were pushed out on perimeter by their roles aren't stellar either: Taj Gibson (11.6 OReb%), Terrence Jones (9.8 OReb%), Anthony Bennett (10.3 OReb%), Adreian Payne (9.5 OReb%), Noah Vonleh (10.8 OReb%) or Myles Turner (7.2 OReb%). Horford and Noah had 11.8 and 12.2 OReb% respectively.
4. Despite great stats it's easily seen in two videos above, how raw WCS was at playing defense just a year ago: overplaying strong hand and getting beat badly (poor balance didn't help), running past shooters on closeouts, because he couldn't slow down, jumping at every fake.
5. Here are his two games vs Florida his sophomore year. Florida was one of the best teams in country last season, and they used NBA SFs at PF spot. WCS didn't get a lot of offensive rebounds, but he was in good position a lot, just didn't get the bounce. And that's before he really worked on his strength, so the notion, that any wing can keep him off the glass, is far from being true.
Anyway WCS is more mobile than half of NBA SFs, so they will have to stay on him the same way college PFs had to. Teams could potentially combat that by rotating guards in front of rolling WCS, but here comes another quality - while not being creative passer he moves the ball very well and on point, so as long as a player rotates on him off of a good shooter, the other team gives up a good open shot either way.
Out of all energetic wings in the draft (Winslow, Johnson, Dekker and RHJ) Winslow's 5.4OReb% is worst by a margin, and he spent more time at PF than other guys.
Winslow is an active defender, but he's too eager to go help, often losing his own guy completely. Shot is definitely not a given, especially off the dribble.
Gay and Omri are certainly not awful on D.
P.S. One of coaches, that recruited Winslow hard, said, that he doesn't know, what position Justise will play. http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/...minnesota-timberwolves-dangelo-russell-060815
P.S. 2 In that first workout video they show Karl telling them something in the end, but it was muted. Wonder why?!
2. Defensive rebounding rate is useless for predicting rebounding ability in the pros. Offensive rebounding rate is a good indicator though. Up until last summer WCS was 7'/220. That's not even close to your typical rebounding big. WCS still posted 12.2 OReb%. Guys with similar dimensions doesn't do well: John Henson (10.8 OReb%), Ed Davis (10.8 OReb%), Nerlens Noel (10.4 OReb%) or Christian Wood (9.6 OReb%) to name a few. And WCS hasn't really improved his strength, especially core, between freshman and sophomore year. That was another symptom of "not being interested in the game" and actually my main objection, when Baja brought up his name last spring as a "must draft" (he didn't declare).
These two games, especially vs Michigan St, show, how bad he was at keeping position and even his balance just a year ago.
3. Last summer WCS added 20 pounds, got a lot better core strength and balance. So how did he managed to post worse OReb%? Offensive rebounding numbers of WCS this year were suppressed by his role. He spent a lot of time this season being basically boxed out, whenever he was closer than 12 feet to the basket - teams preferred to glue a front court player to him to neutralize allez-oop threat and basically played 4-on-4. In games vs Notre Dame or Wisconsin, for example, Towns was posting without double-team coming from Cauley-Stein's man, even though Connaughton or Hayes were often 3-4 feet from the action. They still had one hand on WCS to not lose touch with him and give up easy basket. Plus this year Wildcats had really bad spacing with Lyles at 3, so Cauley-Stein spent a lot more time away from the basket, than he should've had given his current skillset. Rebounding numbers for moderately physical guys, who were pushed out on perimeter by their roles aren't stellar either: Taj Gibson (11.6 OReb%), Terrence Jones (9.8 OReb%), Anthony Bennett (10.3 OReb%), Adreian Payne (9.5 OReb%), Noah Vonleh (10.8 OReb%) or Myles Turner (7.2 OReb%). Horford and Noah had 11.8 and 12.2 OReb% respectively.
4. Despite great stats it's easily seen in two videos above, how raw WCS was at playing defense just a year ago: overplaying strong hand and getting beat badly (poor balance didn't help), running past shooters on closeouts, because he couldn't slow down, jumping at every fake.
5. Here are his two games vs Florida his sophomore year. Florida was one of the best teams in country last season, and they used NBA SFs at PF spot. WCS didn't get a lot of offensive rebounds, but he was in good position a lot, just didn't get the bounce. And that's before he really worked on his strength, so the notion, that any wing can keep him off the glass, is far from being true.
Out of all energetic wings in the draft (Winslow, Johnson, Dekker and RHJ) Winslow's 5.4OReb% is worst by a margin, and he spent more time at PF than other guys.
Winslow is an active defender, but he's too eager to go help, often losing his own guy completely. Shot is definitely not a given, especially off the dribble.
Gay and Omri are certainly not awful on D.
P.S. One of coaches, that recruited Winslow hard, said, that he doesn't know, what position Justise will play. http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/...minnesota-timberwolves-dangelo-russell-060815
P.S. 2 In that first workout video they show Karl telling them something in the end, but it was muted. Wonder why?!
Last edited:
This is an interesting post, but it doesn't really address how a 3 is going to match up against WCS. Does my Evans example hold true? Does a 3 who can shoot 3s pose problems for WCS if he's matched up against one and can WCS take advantage of that 3 in rebounding and in the post?
Also, JT is a lot better in the post than WCS. He's much stronger and has spent years developing an adequate post game. Maybe eventually WCS can get where JT is now. Also, JT's outside shooting is superior. Does that mean JT is a top 10 pf in the league? Heck no. It just means he's better in those aspects of the game than WCS. JT can abuse a 3 in the post; with WCS that is doubtful in my view.
Also, JT is a lot better in the post than WCS. He's much stronger and has spent years developing an adequate post game. Maybe eventually WCS can get where JT is now. Also, JT's outside shooting is superior. Does that mean JT is a top 10 pf in the league? Heck no. It just means he's better in those aspects of the game than WCS. JT can abuse a 3 in the post; with WCS that is doubtful in my view.
I actually don't think so. With Lyles and Towns this season it forced Cauley-Stein to guard on the perimeter more than any seven footer I've watched on the college level. It's not an exaggeration to say he has the lateral quickness to guard most SFs on the NBA level. Now that does mean that Cauley-Stein is pulled away from the basket in terms of shotblocking and rebounding, but that's precisely why his numbers in those areas dropped at Kentucky despite him obviously getting stronger between his sophomore and junior years. Of course it also implies that the opposing team is playing small ball with a SF at the 4 and a SG/SF at the 3. WCS isn't going to wow anyone with his post skills but he's gotten strong enough to hold his position against guys smaller than him so sure, I'd imagine that he take advantage and score down low. But more importantly it means you're either guarding Cousins one on one or bringing over a smaller man to double him opening up Cauley-Stein to dive to the hoop.
I don't see why the Kings wouldn't be able to run their offense very similar to the Clippers. DeAndre Jordan has continued to add strength but he's still an atrocious shooter from outside and very mechanical and not very efficient when posting up. And yet teams don't guard him with a 3. Part of that is Jordan's ability to offensive rebound. WCS's rebounding numbers are somewhat disappointing and there's only so much of the "he played with other bigs" and "he was often forced to play away from the basket as a defender" arguments that I can accept when I saw him still struggle to maintain position for box outs. It's something he needs to work on in terms of strength and technique. But he's a pretty good offensive rebounder and will be even better in the NBA where there's less congestion in the lanes.
In short, I don't think teams going small is a huge issue. In fact, the guys I wonder if he can guard are the bigger bangers. JT played good individual defense against Gasol, Howard, etc. Can WCS hold his position against those guys? It's something Chandler struggled against early on but he figured it out and now plays a guy like Cuz as well as anybody in the NBA. That's what I want to see with Cauley-Stein as time goes by.
The funny thing with Thompson (and I'm an admitted JT supporter) is that as his individual defense has gotten so much better his shooting and post play has really deteriorated. His outside shot was terrible this year and his post play wasn't much better. He's never been smooth when operating down low but he looked almost Dwight Howard-like this last season. I hope this season was an aberration and we seen JT play better offensively next season. He's always going to have poor hands and he's also never seemed content to be a role player but considering that (1) I think Cauley-Stein gets drafted before the sixth pick and (2) the Kings starting lineup early last year was very effective I hope JT (if he isn't traded obviously) comes back as a more effective PF and compliment to Boogie next season.
I don't see why the Kings wouldn't be able to run their offense very similar to the Clippers. DeAndre Jordan has continued to add strength but he's still an atrocious shooter from outside and very mechanical and not very efficient when posting up. And yet teams don't guard him with a 3. Part of that is Jordan's ability to offensive rebound. WCS's rebounding numbers are somewhat disappointing and there's only so much of the "he played with other bigs" and "he was often forced to play away from the basket as a defender" arguments that I can accept when I saw him still struggle to maintain position for box outs. It's something he needs to work on in terms of strength and technique. But he's a pretty good offensive rebounder and will be even better in the NBA where there's less congestion in the lanes.
In short, I don't think teams going small is a huge issue. In fact, the guys I wonder if he can guard are the bigger bangers. JT played good individual defense against Gasol, Howard, etc. Can WCS hold his position against those guys? It's something Chandler struggled against early on but he figured it out and now plays a guy like Cuz as well as anybody in the NBA. That's what I want to see with Cauley-Stein as time goes by.
The funny thing with Thompson (and I'm an admitted JT supporter) is that as his individual defense has gotten so much better his shooting and post play has really deteriorated. His outside shot was terrible this year and his post play wasn't much better. He's never been smooth when operating down low but he looked almost Dwight Howard-like this last season. I hope this season was an aberration and we seen JT play better offensively next season. He's always going to have poor hands and he's also never seemed content to be a role player but considering that (1) I think Cauley-Stein gets drafted before the sixth pick and (2) the Kings starting lineup early last year was very effective I hope JT (if he isn't traded obviously) comes back as a more effective PF and compliment to Boogie next season.
1. Deandre was 6'11", 245 as 20 y.o. freshman on a team with much weaker inside presence, and still got only 11.8 OReb% in Texas A&M.
2. WCS didn't struggle to box out this past season after clearly putting work in weight room last summer.
3. JT said in one of post season interview, that if team is winning, he would do everything it takes, including being a garbage man, but if his team is just chilling, he wants shots. JT isn't a professional like Landry, who will come and do his job routinely. He is emotional guy, that needs a purpose to play. Since Kings insist on being good, JT is not the worst guy to keep.
4. No rookie should be expected to come in, and play big role from day 1. Contribute? Maybe, but NBA team can't expect a rookie to produce consistently (25+ minutes) until January at least. Kings need another solid big, if they keep JT, and two, if Thompson is traded.
2. WCS didn't struggle to box out this past season after clearly putting work in weight room last summer.
3. JT said in one of post season interview, that if team is winning, he would do everything it takes, including being a garbage man, but if his team is just chilling, he wants shots. JT isn't a professional like Landry, who will come and do his job routinely. He is emotional guy, that needs a purpose to play. Since Kings insist on being good, JT is not the worst guy to keep.
4. No rookie should be expected to come in, and play big role from day 1. Contribute? Maybe, but NBA team can't expect a rookie to produce consistently (25+ minutes) until January at least. Kings need another solid big, if they keep JT, and two, if Thompson is traded.
No real argument with any of your points other than I did watch Kentucky games where WCS struggled to hold position for defensive rebounds. I don't think it's as much a strength issue as it was previously, just working on technique and leverage.
And I don't see anyone the Kings could take at #6 that would start next season despite Sacramento needing upgrades at SG, PF and to a lesser extent PG. But Cauley-Stein might perhaps have the best shot at taking over a starting job before the season ended. But even if he could I'm not sure that's the best sign for the team. Much better to have JT have a banner year.
And I don't see anyone the Kings could take at #6 that would start next season despite Sacramento needing upgrades at SG, PF and to a lesser extent PG. But Cauley-Stein might perhaps have the best shot at taking over a starting job before the season ended. But even if he could I'm not sure that's the best sign for the team. Much better to have JT have a banner year.
Next season is going to have to be huge for us guys, we have to take the next step from lottery team to at least fighting for a playoff spot. Next season will be very big in deciding Cousins future with us and also, depending on how well we do, George Karl and Cousins future relationship together.
We simply have to get better and we still already have some big what ifs going forward with Ben and Nik. Nobody on here knows for sure if WCS is going to become a good player or a bad player or how long thats going to take and honestly the biggest reason I want to trade the pick is because we cant lose on the draft again...we just cant! We need to know what were getting and patch the teams weaknesses that way. If you are DMC the last thing you want to do is have to carry the front court with a (possibly) clueless rookie by your side.
I mean yes of course WCS could be everything some of you say he could be and is, but that could take time, maybe lots of time.
Like i said before, i am done entrusting a rookie to fix the teams weaknesses because it hardly ever works that way. If trading the pick for a vet brings us an extra 5 wins i would be happy cause were gonna need all the W's we can get.
But I will admit ill be a little sour if i see one of our possible draft picks become a star
We simply have to get better and we still already have some big what ifs going forward with Ben and Nik. Nobody on here knows for sure if WCS is going to become a good player or a bad player or how long thats going to take and honestly the biggest reason I want to trade the pick is because we cant lose on the draft again...we just cant! We need to know what were getting and patch the teams weaknesses that way. If you are DMC the last thing you want to do is have to carry the front court with a (possibly) clueless rookie by your side.
I mean yes of course WCS could be everything some of you say he could be and is, but that could take time, maybe lots of time.
Like i said before, i am done entrusting a rookie to fix the teams weaknesses because it hardly ever works that way. If trading the pick for a vet brings us an extra 5 wins i would be happy cause were gonna need all the W's we can get.
But I will admit ill be a little sour if i see one of our possible draft picks become a star
Everything I read what you guys say, Porz looks to be the better bigman fit if we keep JT. WCS is JT but take away low block defense and add shotblocking and better pick n roll D. Rebounding, call it a wash, and on Offense WCS and JT are pretty much a wash. So we draft WCS and now we have 2 JT's and you get little flexibility in the front court. Cousins will continue to get swarmed in the paint by a 2nd big waiting for him at the rim. Paint will stay packed and the offense will struggle in the 4th when teams pick up intensity frustrating Cousins and Gay on a nightly bases...also makes us very easy to scheme against because we have little versatility.
Porz on the underhand opens up so many doorn the Offensive side of the ball. He will come as a stretch 4 but instead of being slow and lumberig like Kaminsky, you trade strength for the ability to run the floor. This also allows him to do many other things on the offensive side of the ball such as moving effectively without the ball, challenge for tips and Offensive rebounds, set picks etc. Or just make him stand in the corner. Then he can get back on D quickly. With JT on the team, if you need a banger you switch them up. On D, he has the tools to be able to play the pick n roll well and challenge shots. Of course going to be learning curve like all rookies, but he will right off the bat be able to stretch the floor (unless we get another Nik rookie slump) and hussle. His athletisims and length will go a long way to covering up mental laspes on D, limiting his liability. Once he understands how to play team D he has all the tools to be a plus defender. But the big addition he brings to the team is on the Offensive side of the ball.
Porz on the underhand opens up so many doorn the Offensive side of the ball. He will come as a stretch 4 but instead of being slow and lumberig like Kaminsky, you trade strength for the ability to run the floor. This also allows him to do many other things on the offensive side of the ball such as moving effectively without the ball, challenge for tips and Offensive rebounds, set picks etc. Or just make him stand in the corner. Then he can get back on D quickly. With JT on the team, if you need a banger you switch them up. On D, he has the tools to be able to play the pick n roll well and challenge shots. Of course going to be learning curve like all rookies, but he will right off the bat be able to stretch the floor (unless we get another Nik rookie slump) and hussle. His athletisims and length will go a long way to covering up mental laspes on D, limiting his liability. Once he understands how to play team D he has all the tools to be a plus defender. But the big addition he brings to the team is on the Offensive side of the ball.
The more workouts I watch of WCS, the more I want him. All this salivating leads me to believe he'll get picked before #6 (kings fan syndrome). At this point, I'd be ecstatic for either Mudiay or WCS. The Porzingis workout video shocked me, and he could be a good fit as well... but I just really love what WCS could bring to this team.
I can think of one item that would preclude the Kings not being able to run their offense like the Clippers - Chris Paul. He's the best player in the league at passing over the top while on the run. And that dynamic assumes there would only be one player - the pg - passing the ball over the top to WCS. How is the rest of the team going to do at something that many are blithely assuming will easily happen? The Kings better get a lot more players who are better passers if they want to be throwing rim leaders to WCS.
Last edited:
I think, that'll be a non-starter for a while now.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/source...suffers-setback-with-left-foot-014042190.html
Jordan is also extremely limited in his range of catching the ball, that he can still finish from - that's why he needs it delivered by penetrating Chris/Blake. Give him the ball 6 feet from the basket instead of 3, and it becomes 40% shot instead of 90%. WCS can catch the ball 10, even 12 feet from the basket and still finish with the same effectiveness as long as the lane is relatively open, but even SG-sized player standing between him and the basket is a kryptonite though. Cauley-Stein needs to use the glass much more instead of barely successful hook shots, when he's around the rim, but can't dunk. I saw him use the glass maybe 4-5 times, and he made all - WCS seems to understand angles.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/source...suffers-setback-with-left-foot-014042190.html
Jordan is also extremely limited in his range of catching the ball, that he can still finish from - that's why he needs it delivered by penetrating Chris/Blake. Give him the ball 6 feet from the basket instead of 3, and it becomes 40% shot instead of 90%. WCS can catch the ball 10, even 12 feet from the basket and still finish with the same effectiveness as long as the lane is relatively open, but even SG-sized player standing between him and the basket is a kryptonite though. Cauley-Stein needs to use the glass much more instead of barely successful hook shots, when he's around the rim, but can't dunk. I saw him use the glass maybe 4-5 times, and he made all - WCS seems to understand angles.
Last edited:
I am a huge WCS fan and have wanted him since last year (thought he would declare), but I think if Porzingis is available, you have to take him. He is just more talented and has more potential. I know people say "oh he can improve his free throw percentage or improve his mid-range jump shot," but it's not that simply or easy -- I don't expect WCS to become a good mid-range shooter. As one ages, this becomes harder and harder because your neuron count in your brain dwindles by the day (new ones cannot be formed) and the ones that stay are the ones you use frequently. It's why good to great jump shooters were good to great even in high school and college, it's innate. When you reach your 20s, expecting a drastic improvement in your shot is unrealistic, and when it's game time, you tend to revert back to your roots, because once again, that's what you taught your body to do for 10+ years. Remember Tyreke? He must have had 3 offseasons with shooting coaches, would start the season improved, and in time, he would revert back to the lean with legs kicking out form, killing any chance of efficiency. Same story to this day.
I would take Porzingis, because he is more talented, though not as ready. And with that, I have to make this statement. We simply cannot rely on this draft and a rookie (regardless of who it is) to be our major acquisition/change. It simply will not do. We need proven players and the rookie should be our cherry on top.
I would take Porzingis, because he is more talented, though not as ready. And with that, I have to make this statement. We simply cannot rely on this draft and a rookie (regardless of who it is) to be our major acquisition/change. It simply will not do. We need proven players and the rookie should be our cherry on top.
WCS improved his standstill mid-range shooting from 37% to 62% in 2 years.
And that "brain argument" is just ridiculous.
Like with any craft improving at playing basketball requires putting in hours of training, actually even more important hours with a good instructor. And despite being 2 years younger (minus 16 days) Porzingis worked on his game more than WCS up to this moment. Yes, Kristaps will very likely (95+%) stay ahead of Willie for the rest of their careers in shooting. He will also likely be a better post-up player, but there are very few NBA players, that 7'1"/220(or 230) guy can take to the post.
I don't see any other skill, where Porzingis is ahead of Cauley-Stein, and at some aspects of the game he's significantly behind.
And that "brain argument" is just ridiculous.
Like with any craft improving at playing basketball requires putting in hours of training, actually even more important hours with a good instructor. And despite being 2 years younger (minus 16 days) Porzingis worked on his game more than WCS up to this moment. Yes, Kristaps will very likely (95+%) stay ahead of Willie for the rest of their careers in shooting. He will also likely be a better post-up player, but there are very few NBA players, that 7'1"/220(or 230) guy can take to the post.
I don't see any other skill, where Porzingis is ahead of Cauley-Stein, and at some aspects of the game he's significantly behind.
The brain argument is not ridiculous its complete fact. When has a really poor shooter become a great shooter in recent memory? I can't think of anyone. They can become respectable in regards to shooting, but usually that's it. Now there may be exceptions if said player is young enough.. if you or I would work on our left handed layups, we would naturally improve, but not to the extent a 10 year old would, because he's going to develop and create those neurons, while you and I are simply going to refine ours. It's why its hard for players to significantly improve in certain aspects. And why veterans are what they are. You don't hear of a 32 year old veteran significantly changing things in his game. It's because he can't or won't be proficient enough to use it at the NBA level. The early ages are critical and for a reason. Now with Porzingis or WCS, it's more of a 1a vs 1b situation for me, as I would be happy with either. I don't really like Mudiay much, as he doesn't excel in anything, so if those two guys are gone, I would want to trade the pick.