The 2015 KF.com Draft Big Board Part 2: Kings' Range
- Thread starter Capt. Factorial
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Very interesting commentary by Chris. I don't disagree with him but I can't help but feel like he has the, "basketball was better during my time" kind of rant that many ex-pros have been doing lately. I was following along with his rationale until he dropped the line about, "if you're a junior in college playing basketball, you won't have an NBA career." I realize we're in the era of one-and-done so those guys are the best looking girls at the party, but I immediately would remind Chris that Steph Curry spent 3 years in college and he's fresh off of his MVP award on the way to the finals.
However, I do think it is telling that he is not a fan of WCS. I don't know his track record on nailing prospects correctly, but I do hope he's wrong about this one.
However, I do think it is telling that he is not a fan of WCS. I don't know his track record on nailing prospects correctly, but I do hope he's wrong about this one.
I figure that Hezonja is too raw right now, but he'll probably have a very decent rookie year assuming he comes here next year..so I cross him off the list. I personally think he'd duplicate what Bojan Bodganovic did in Brookyln this year (Bodganovic is 25 vs Hezonja 20).
Porzingis is one of my favorite draft prospects, but I don't think he'll be able to contribute for at least another year. I'm really starting to question if he'll be able to add more bulk to his narrow frame. Honestly, adding weight and strength solves around 80% of his problems. I'd pass on him.
Winslow is a tremendous 3&D guy. He brings us what we need on defense and he brings ball movement and 3pt shooting to offense. I think if we draft him, there won't be a place for him to start. He'd be in the rotation between Gay/McLemore/Stauskas/Casspi? I think he gives us a great rotational player and gives us the much needed perimeter defense. I'm leaning towards him.
Another possibility is Johnson and Lyles. I think we take Winslow.
Porzingis is one of my favorite draft prospects, but I don't think he'll be able to contribute for at least another year. I'm really starting to question if he'll be able to add more bulk to his narrow frame. Honestly, adding weight and strength solves around 80% of his problems. I'd pass on him.
Winslow is a tremendous 3&D guy. He brings us what we need on defense and he brings ball movement and 3pt shooting to offense. I think if we draft him, there won't be a place for him to start. He'd be in the rotation between Gay/McLemore/Stauskas/Casspi? I think he gives us a great rotational player and gives us the much needed perimeter defense. I'm leaning towards him.
Another possibility is Johnson and Lyles. I think we take Winslow.
Here's a very interesting article about the post game in the current NBA. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/w...he-nba-post-up-game-to-bring-you-its-rebirth/
Very good read and I think it brings up an indirect question.. can you build around Cousins? The league is changing into a very fast game. I'm excited to see what Karl does this offseason. It looks like he doesn't believe teams can win if they go down to the post 60% of the time.
Very good read and I think it brings up an indirect question.. can you build around Cousins? The league is changing into a very fast game. I'm excited to see what Karl does this offseason. It looks like he doesn't believe teams can win if they go down to the post 60% of the time.
K
Chris Webber probably think's DJ is the best C in the NBA the way he was talking about him there. Chris Webber's commentary a lot of the time lately it sounds like he's a boxer that's taken way to many punches to the head. They just need to get that dude out of the media in particular his commentary during games which is an atrocity to mankind.
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Boogie under Karl: massive hike in FT rate from .500 (under Malone) and .468 (under Corbin) to .548; 24.8 ppg on .540TS% (would've been 25.3 ppg on .553TS%, if Boogie hit FTs at the same rate as he did the rest of the season), and that's without training camp, Collison and a few games without Rudy.
GK has massive ego, but he's not going to push Boogie out - DMC is the best win ticket for the rest of his coaching career.
GK has massive ego, but he's not going to push Boogie out - DMC is the best win ticket for the rest of his coaching career.
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For me this is basically the worst-case scenario. Porzingis isn't going to help right away. Hezonja duplicates what we already have (as does Winslow), I'm not 100% sold on Johnson. I'd be very tempted by Trey Lyles as a guy who could fill that PF hole with quite a bit more offense but nowhere near the defense that WCS could. At that point you probably have to start thinking about Kaminsky as well. But I wouldn't be surprised if we took Hezonja in that scenario.
A lot of people are really sleeping on Stanley Johnson. He's an elite prospect. Forget about positions. Don't disregard anybody because you think we already have that position covered. We're not locked in on Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore for the next 10 years. Johnson can play either SG or SF. Reaching just to get a PF would be a mistake when there are better prospects on the board.
Genuine question truly... are you familiar with Johnson and if you are can you clue me in? I am not the biggest NCAA watcher and don't know much more about him other than what I watched/read on Draftexpress. My main argument against him really has nothing to do with him at all, which would be are we really going to draft a SG 3 years in a row?
In this instance I think he's being harsh on WCS.
When he says he's going on about Deandre Jordan's size, he's been in the league and worked with his team's trainers and added bulk to his frame. When WCS gets into the league, he has the frame to add more bulk. And isn't WCS taller than Jordan and got an equally big frame? WCS should be able to add an extra twenty pounds or so in time.
As for not being a Deandre Jordan because WCS averages under ten points a game, I think that is a bit of a stretch. The kid is still improving and his stats are better in some categories than Jordan's were in college, in fact, WCS's first season in college was better in some categories. Sure WCS has played three years and Jordan was one and out, and that often counts against players these days but I don't think that will prevent a very talented and athletic 21 year old kid from developing into a very good center in the league.
What I did agree with Webber on is that we should be careful at projecting players as certain professional players. Those lofty projections are generally misleading and some never get close to them.
When he says he's going on about Deandre Jordan's size, he's been in the league and worked with his team's trainers and added bulk to his frame. When WCS gets into the league, he has the frame to add more bulk. And isn't WCS taller than Jordan and got an equally big frame? WCS should be able to add an extra twenty pounds or so in time.
As for not being a Deandre Jordan because WCS averages under ten points a game, I think that is a bit of a stretch. The kid is still improving and his stats are better in some categories than Jordan's were in college, in fact, WCS's first season in college was better in some categories. Sure WCS has played three years and Jordan was one and out, and that often counts against players these days but I don't think that will prevent a very talented and athletic 21 year old kid from developing into a very good center in the league.
What I did agree with Webber on is that we should be careful at projecting players as certain professional players. Those lofty projections are generally misleading and some never get close to them.
I think the bigger issue why Willie is not DeAndre is that DeAndre could easily double him up as a rebounder even if Willie starts.
WCS is all about the subtle taste here. Its very easy to see him being barely productive at all statswise. He was neither scorer, rebounder, not shotblocker in college, and there's always this excuse or that excuse for that, but it often translates over. Comparatively Jordan is a blunt instrument. All hops and highlights, but lacking IQ and perhaps being rather less effective than the wow makes him seem. With WCS you are hoping it will be the opposite. With of course the danger that if it isn't you basically end up with a tall scrub with no statistical production.
WCS is all about the subtle taste here. Its very easy to see him being barely productive at all statswise. He was neither scorer, rebounder, not shotblocker in college, and there's always this excuse or that excuse for that, but it often translates over. Comparatively Jordan is a blunt instrument. All hops and highlights, but lacking IQ and perhaps being rather less effective than the wow makes him seem. With WCS you are hoping it will be the opposite. With of course the danger that if it isn't you basically end up with a tall scrub with no statistical production.
I loved Chris Webber as a player. I do not love Chris Webber as a commentator.
He is yet another great player who does not put in the work to have well formed views. When you compare him to a guy like Steve Kerr who clearly did his homework as a commentator the difference is glaring.
There is plenty to question about Cauley-Stein on the next level but that clip was just bad on Webber's part.
Yes, Willie Cauley-Stein can't come in as a rookie and play anywhere near the level of Jordan. But comparing them as rookies gives a very different picture.
WCS is an inch and a half taller and only 8 lbs lighter than DJ was coming into the league. And as for jumping higher, Jordan measured a no step vert of 26" and a max vert of 30.5" while WCS recorded a no step vert of 31" and a max vert of 37".
And then the talk about how WCS couldn't be an effective pro because he couldn't score more than 10 pts per game. Comparing their freshman seasons (DJ left Texas A&M after one year) WCS scored 8.3 ppg vs Jordan's 7.9 and that was on a more talented Kentucky team that plays in a tougher conference. Also 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocks vs 6.0 rebounds and 1.3 blocks for Jordan.
Hard to take Webber seriously when his analysis is so thin on facts.
He is yet another great player who does not put in the work to have well formed views. When you compare him to a guy like Steve Kerr who clearly did his homework as a commentator the difference is glaring.
There is plenty to question about Cauley-Stein on the next level but that clip was just bad on Webber's part.
Yes, Willie Cauley-Stein can't come in as a rookie and play anywhere near the level of Jordan. But comparing them as rookies gives a very different picture.
WCS is an inch and a half taller and only 8 lbs lighter than DJ was coming into the league. And as for jumping higher, Jordan measured a no step vert of 26" and a max vert of 30.5" while WCS recorded a no step vert of 31" and a max vert of 37".
And then the talk about how WCS couldn't be an effective pro because he couldn't score more than 10 pts per game. Comparing their freshman seasons (DJ left Texas A&M after one year) WCS scored 8.3 ppg vs Jordan's 7.9 and that was on a more talented Kentucky team that plays in a tougher conference. Also 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocks vs 6.0 rebounds and 1.3 blocks for Jordan.
Hard to take Webber seriously when his analysis is so thin on facts.
With all due respect to Chris Webber, in this case, he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. First, is he comparing Cauley-Stein, the college player to the current NBA player DeAndre Jordan? Well, gee whiz Chris, what a shock that WCS isn't as good right this minute as Jordan is. Actually that's a presumption yet unproven. But I'll give him that one. Jordan has been in the league for 7 years. My god, if he isn't a better player right now than Stein, than he's not earning his money. How about comparing the two as freshmen in college. Wouldn't that be a more fair comparison. By the way, I picked the freshman year because Jordan only played one year of college ball.
Jordan: 20 mpg - 7.9 ppg - 6.0 rpg - 1.3 bpg. - As a side note, he only shot 41.7% from the freethrow line.
Per 40 min: 15.8 ppg - 11.9 rpg - 2.3 bpg.
Stein: 23.6 mpg - 8.3 ppg - 6.2 rpg - 2.1 bpg - Stein was equally as bad shooting only 37.2% from the freethrow line.
Per 40 min: 14.2 ppg - 10.5 rpg - 3.5 bpg
On the whole, fairly even. A slight edge to Jordan in a couple of areas and a slight edge to Stein in blk's. I didn't include steals and if I had, Stein would have had an edge in that dept. A percentage of note, is that after 7 years in the league, Jordan's freethrow percentage last season, and it reflects just about every season he's played, was 39.7%. Zero improvement over that time period. Cauley-Steins freethrow percentage this past season, his junior year was 61.7%. Still nothing to rave about, but less likely to make you a target of hack a shaq. Point is, he improved. Finally, and to me this is the main point about the two of them. It's that Cauley-Stein is a different player than Jordan. Jordan isn't nearly as effective a defender if you take him away from the basket, where Cauley-Stein is a terrific defender away from the basket.
In fairness to Webb, he probably doesn't watch a lot of college basketball, and gets a lot of his info through his ear piece. If you want a good opinion on a college player then listen to someone like Jay Bilas.
Jordan: 20 mpg - 7.9 ppg - 6.0 rpg - 1.3 bpg. - As a side note, he only shot 41.7% from the freethrow line.
Per 40 min: 15.8 ppg - 11.9 rpg - 2.3 bpg.
Stein: 23.6 mpg - 8.3 ppg - 6.2 rpg - 2.1 bpg - Stein was equally as bad shooting only 37.2% from the freethrow line.
Per 40 min: 14.2 ppg - 10.5 rpg - 3.5 bpg
On the whole, fairly even. A slight edge to Jordan in a couple of areas and a slight edge to Stein in blk's. I didn't include steals and if I had, Stein would have had an edge in that dept. A percentage of note, is that after 7 years in the league, Jordan's freethrow percentage last season, and it reflects just about every season he's played, was 39.7%. Zero improvement over that time period. Cauley-Steins freethrow percentage this past season, his junior year was 61.7%. Still nothing to rave about, but less likely to make you a target of hack a shaq. Point is, he improved. Finally, and to me this is the main point about the two of them. It's that Cauley-Stein is a different player than Jordan. Jordan isn't nearly as effective a defender if you take him away from the basket, where Cauley-Stein is a terrific defender away from the basket.
In fairness to Webb, he probably doesn't watch a lot of college basketball, and gets a lot of his info through his ear piece. If you want a good opinion on a college player then listen to someone like Jay Bilas.
I posted those same stats in another thread (maybe this one actually), and was about to repost, but you saved me the hassle.
I love Webb but he really hasn't a clue what he's talking about regarding WCS. Jordan dropped to the 2nd round for christ's sake, imagine what Chris would have said about him prior to being drafted? Fact is WCS has a far higher IQ, already is a much better FT shooter, has better hands, is already a far more versatile defender, and probably a better all round athlete. Will he ever put up the numbers Jordan is putting up now? No idea, but I wouldn't be surprised, and it's certainly not as silly as Webber seems to think.
I'm yet to see someone with WCS size and athleticism fail in the NBA. Look at what Whiteside just did this year, and his IQ is about as low as it could be. There's not one single thing he does better than WCS apart from blocking shots (and WCS is going to be an excellent shot-blocker in the NBA, mark my words).
I'm frankly shocked that Brick is minimalising WCS. His production is lower than it would be due to his role, minutes and teammates. Put him on another team and those numbers would look much more impressive.
Last 3 years:
year---DAJ Oreb%---team OReb% w/DAJ---DAJ Dreb%---team DReb% w/DAJ---team DRtg w/DAJ---team DRtg w/o DAJ
2013------12.9------------------29.5----------------23.2------------------74.7---------------------106.8--------------------101.4
2014------13.3------------------26.5----------------28.9------------------72.6---------------------105.1--------------------106.0
2015------16.2------------------26.4----------------32.3------------------76.2---------------------106.3--------------------106.2
Until Doc came over, DAJ was a very good (12.5 OReb%, 23DReb%), but not dominant rebounding center. Scheme changed, and so did Deandre's stats, except for defense - that stayed remarkably average.
Matter of fact is DAJ is far more valuable as an offensive player, that fits perfectly next to two ball-dominant teammates.
Now to WCS:
year---DAJ Oreb%---team OReb% w/DAJ---DAJ Dreb%---team DReb% w/DAJ---team DRtg w/DAJ---team DRtg w/o DAJ
2013------12.9------------------29.5----------------23.2------------------74.7---------------------106.8--------------------101.4
2014------13.3------------------26.5----------------28.9------------------72.6---------------------105.1--------------------106.0
2015------16.2------------------26.4----------------32.3------------------76.2---------------------106.3--------------------106.2
- The idea, that DAJ is a valuable defensive player, has absolutely no merit - veteran teams anchored by him finish in the middle of the pack every year. In fact the last time Clippers had good big men on the bench backup unit showed Deandre, what good defense is.
- Doc moved Blake and his defender towards the arc on offense this year, so DAJ's off.rebounds increased, since he's usually quicker than the other C and can get more rebounds in space.
- Doc also made his team run right from the start of his tenure in LA, leaving DAJ to battle for boards, which in 13/14 gave them more transition opportunities (18.2 ppg), but got them killed on defensive boards. This year he tempered leaking out (only 14.5 ppg), so team def. rebounding got back up. It's just so happened, that DAJ got all those additional rebounds.
Until Doc came over, DAJ was a very good (12.5 OReb%, 23DReb%), but not dominant rebounding center. Scheme changed, and so did Deandre's stats, except for defense - that stayed remarkably average.
Matter of fact is DAJ is far more valuable as an offensive player, that fits perfectly next to two ball-dominant teammates.
Now to WCS:
- he's not going to come close to Deandre under Doc rebounding numbers
- Deandre before Doc rebounding numbers are not easy to repeat next to Boogie either, but given Willie's mobility and length he will pursue a lot of out of the area rebounds, so he will likely come close.
- Given his physical tools WCS can at least make a similar job as an anchor, and just blows Jordan outside the paint
- on offense Willie has same traits (lacking couple of inches in length he easily offsets that with no step hops), except he's quicker, can actually make one dribble moves without ball pressure, better at catching the ball and has rudimentary shooting, while still being very raw