The 2015 KF.com Draft Big Board Part 2: Kings' Range

rainmaker

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
#31
#31
ockingsfan said:
These are not good odds.

Is WCS worth the risk?
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I think it's even worse that it was his ankle. A high flier like him who regularly contests shots and attacks the rim on putbacks has a pretty decent risk of spraining an ankle. We see it all the time. When that ankle had a stress fracture....

If he was a below the rim player like Cuz, wouldn't be as much of a risk. But all it could take is coming down on someone's foot after contesting a shot, bad ankle sprain leading to complications with the stress fracture, even another stress fracture and then he's likely out for months, and that much more likely to have future issues. A stress fracture btw has a longer and more complicated rehab process than a regular clean break, as even with how bad Paul George's break was, it's in an area he likely won't have further issues. Once the bone heals, he's good. An ankle is a different animal altogether and stress fractures many times are a product of a mechanical issue, a structural issue and are a product of stress building up over time. Much tougher to correct. That's why there's such a high re-occurrence rate. When someone breaks a leg or an arm, they rarely break it again. Ankle and knee issues tend to follow you. You're dealing with ligaments/tendons, not just bone.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#34
#34
"Analysis: Hezonja has great size for the SG position, and can probably play spot minutes at the positions either side of him. But his natural position is SG. He's tall but he needs to get stronger, as many young players do. He's a smart player with a high IQ, who like most European prospects, can do a little bit of everything offensively. Has good handles (though I think he palms the ball sometimes, something he may need to cut out, but it's not going to be an issue long term), good court vision and passing ability, and a good vision of the game. He is a very capable shooter with solid form and a good release. What's going to surprise people is that the guy is an excellent athlete. I'm not talking about being an excellent athlete for a euro, I'm talking about being an excellent athlete by NBA standards. A level below elite, but he is very fluid, quick and has major hops. If he gets a chance, he's putting you on a poster. Something I like about him is that he has an attitude (in fact this has been a knock on him according to some sources), he doesn't back down from anyone and he's highly competitive. Some people have said that he's troublesome to deal with. I'm not sure how true this is or isn't. I do know he hasn't had any major issues (or minor for that matter). It's probably nitpicking to cite this as a weakness as by all accounts he's a good guy. I'd personally prefer someone who has that fire. Weakness wise, he needs to get stronger, his defense isn't bad and he has solid potential there due to his size and athleticism, but as with most young players, he has work to do. He's going to have to change his mindset when he gets to the NBA. I think he has great potential and will watch him with great interest, but given where we'll be drafting, he's not at the top of my list, especially given that we've just drafted two SGs. I think he's going to take a few years to really hit the ground, but he can be a very good player for a team in the future. -- Dime Dropper"

I think this is a good description of Hezonja, but the conclusion doesn't follow from the description. It's irrelevant whether the Kings have drafted two, three, four or more players who fit into the abstract category of shooting guard, unless those players are clones of Hezonja. If the Kings pass on Hezonja because they truly believe there is a more talented player available, so be it. But if they pass on him because they already have two "shooting guards", that's dumb, dumb, dumb, and it will be just another draft in which considerations other than the talent of the player in question rules the day.
 
Dime Dropper

Dime Dropper

All-Star
#35
#35
Kingster said:
"Analysis: Hezonja has great size for the SG position, and can probably play spot minutes at the positions either side of him. But his natural position is SG. He's tall but he needs to get stronger, as many young players do. He's a smart player with a high IQ, who like most European prospects, can do a little bit of everything offensively. Has good handles (though I think he palms the ball sometimes, something he may need to cut out, but it's not going to be an issue long term), good court vision and passing ability, and a good vision of the game. He is a very capable shooter with solid form and a good release. What's going to surprise people is that the guy is an excellent athlete. I'm not talking about being an excellent athlete for a euro, I'm talking about being an excellent athlete by NBA standards. A level below elite, but he is very fluid, quick and has major hops. If he gets a chance, he's putting you on a poster. Something I like about him is that he has an attitude (in fact this has been a knock on him according to some sources), he doesn't back down from anyone and he's highly competitive. Some people have said that he's troublesome to deal with. I'm not sure how true this is or isn't. I do know he hasn't had any major issues (or minor for that matter). It's probably nitpicking to cite this as a weakness as by all accounts he's a good guy. I'd personally prefer someone who has that fire. Weakness wise, he needs to get stronger, his defense isn't bad and he has solid potential there due to his size and athleticism, but as with most young players, he has work to do. He's going to have to change his mindset when he gets to the NBA. I think he has great potential and will watch him with great interest, but given where we'll be drafting, he's not at the top of my list, especially given that we've just drafted two SGs. I think he's going to take a few years to really hit the ground, but he can be a very good player for a team in the future. -- Dime Dropper
Capt. Factorial, Wednesday at 7:00 PM Report"

I think this is a good description of Hezonja, but the conclusion doesn't follow from the description. It's irrelevant whether the Kings have drafted two, three, four or more players who fit into the abstract category of shooting guard, unless those players are clones of Hezonja. If the Kings pass on Hezonja because they truly believe there is a more talented player available, so be it. But if they pass on him because they already have two "shooting guards", that's dumb, dumb, dumb, and it will be just another draft in which considerations other than the talent of the player in question rules the day.
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I wrote it, and for me, the conclusion does follow. I do think there will be more talented players available at that pick. I don't have a problem with taking Hezonja at 6 or 7 IF, and only if, we trade at least one of Ben/Nik. Spending three consecutive top 8 picks on three SGs with similar games, and just keeping them on the roster, is absolutely crazy. It's well and truly David Kahn territory. If you're convinced by Hezonja, fine, but trade at least one of Ben/Nik prior to the draft so we at least get something back.

I just don't think it's viable. Hezonja is basically Nik with Ben's athleticism (not quite). I'd take Towns/Russell/Mudiay/Okafor/WCS and possible Winslow ahead of Hezonja. Ben and Nik still have a lot of developing to do. I take Russell no question, even with Ben and Nik here, but I don't think Hezonja is on that level. And besides, Russell is probably a PG.
 
ockingsfan

ockingsfan

Starter
#36
#36
Gilles said:
http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/16/3382812_live-uk-basketball-vs-champagne.html?rh=1
Interestingly looks like Lyles had problems with a leg as well in the summer 2014.

Full measurements and athletic testing from 2014 UK Pro Day:
http://247sports.com/Article/UK-basketball-coach-John-Calipari-releases-times-measurements-32038195
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How will WCS ankle hold up in a 82 game schedule?

He played only 20 something minutes for 40 games in college.

He will be expected to eventually go 36-40min/game for 82+ games a season in the NBA.

Is this a big Red Flag on WCS?

I remember the same issues sprouted up with another Kentucky big man, Julius Randal, last year and the Lakers ignored the warnings and drafted Randal top 5 anyways. Well one game into the season, and Randal re-broke his foot and has not played since.

Does Kentucky's platooning of players and the limited play time hide these potentially big injuries because of the lessened work load in Calipari's system?

Can we risk WCS going through a similar re-injury? or Do we roll the dice on someone like Kristaps?
 
Gary

Gary

All-Star
#37
#37
I would still take a chance on WCS.. He's one of only a couple players that fits exactly what we need. Unless we can trade the pick for Noah then I will stick on the WCS bandwagon.
 
G

Gilles

Starter
#38
#38
Randle had broken tibia in HS, that he re-injured. Tibia is a major bone, and that's a sign, that he might not have body for his style of play. The only athletic big I can find with same injury is Mcgee, who played a lot of minutes, that involved high energy running and jumping, before the injury, so that's not a good sign at all for Randle's future. This injury killed Yao's career. Ben Wallace was done in 2009 after this injury. In other words "Medial Malleolar Stress Fracture/Stress Fracture of the Tibia/Tibial Stress Fracture" is bad.

Judging by methods of treatment in http://bunionsurgeryny.com/procedures/ankle-fracture-surgery/ Willie had Lateral Malleolus Fracture of fibula.

According to http://orthopedics.about.com/od/footankle/fl/Lateral-Malleolus-Fracture.htm
The tibia carries the vast majority of the weight of the body (about 90%), with the fibula holding only about 10% of body weight.
These injuries typically occur when the ankle is either twisted or rolled, often with an awkward or uneven step. The good news is that most lateral malleolus fractures are considered stable ankle fractures
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WCS rolled his ankle vs Kansas State.

An unstable ankle fracture is an injury that occurs when the fracture causes the ankle joint to not work properly. Therefore, if the bone heals in a position where the ankle is not functioning properly, the ankle is likely to develop early
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ankle arthritis.
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This is Bogut's problem.
 
bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#39
#39
ockingsfan said:
How will WCS ankle hold up in a 82 game schedule?

He played only 20 something minutes for 40 games in college.

He will be expected to eventually go 36-40min/game for 82+ games a season in the NBA.

Is this a big Red Flag on WCS?

I remember the same issues sprouted up with another Kentucky big man, Julius Randal, last year and the Lakers ignored the warnings and drafted Randal top 5 anyways. Well one game into the season, and Randal re-broke his foot and has not played since.

Does Kentucky's platooning of players and the limited play time hide these potentially big injuries because of the lessened work load in Calipari's system?

Can we risk WCS going through a similar re-injury? or Do we roll the dice on someone like Kristaps?
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Look, if you want to bring up that there's some risk based on past history, fine! But don't make a mountain out of a mole hill. He just played an entire season without any injuries. Maybe you should turn your attention to Cousins who has had several sprained ankles, and recurring shoulder injuries. Any red flags there? Just saying. There is risk with any player you draft. Particularly players that bang under the basket, or spend a lot of time above the rim. I'd be more worried about WCS if he weighed 280 lbs. The Kings, and whomever else is interested in him will have him examined by their doctors. In the meantime, I'll have a talk with god and see if I can't get you a five year warranty on WCS.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#41
#41
Dime Dropper said:
I wrote it, and for me, the conclusion does follow. I do think there will be more talented players available at that pick. I don't have a problem with taking Hezonja at 6 or 7 IF, and only if, we trade at least one of Ben/Nik. Spending three consecutive top 8 picks on three SGs with similar games, and just keeping them on the roster, is absolutely crazy. It's well and truly David Kahn territory. If you're convinced by Hezonja, fine, but trade at least one of Ben/Nik prior to the draft so we at least get something back.

I just don't think it's viable. Hezonja is basically Nik with Ben's athleticism (not quite). I'd take Towns/Russell/Mudiay/Okafor/WCS and possible Winslow ahead of Hezonja. Ben and Nik still have a lot of developing to do. I take Russell no question, even with Ben and Nik here, but I don't think Hezonja is on that level. And besides, Russell is probably a PG.
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Your conclusion didn't follow, Dime Dropper, because your post makes no comparison among other players. I have no disagreement about drafting Hezonja and trading Ben/Nik. I don't see why that isn't viable. And I agree he's a Nik (good shot, good BBIQ, versatile, maybe a tad taller) with not quite Ben's athleticism, not a bad composite. I'd take Towns/Russell/Mudiay/Okafor ahead of Hezonja, not WCS or Winslow, although Winslow could eventually be a good two-way player. I'd take Hezonja over an injury-free WCS, but given the stress fracture of WCS he's got an even higher bar to overcome, especially in light of the info that Rainmaker provided.
 
Dime Dropper

Dime Dropper

All-Star
#42
#42
Kingster said:
Your conclusion didn't follow, Dime Dropper, because your post makes no comparison among other players. I have no disagreement about drafting Hezonja and trading Ben/Nik. I don't see why that isn't viable. And I agree he's a Nik (good shot, good BBIQ, versatile, maybe a tad taller) with not quite Ben's athleticism, not a bad composite. I'd take Towns/Russell/Mudiay/Okafor ahead of Hezonja, not WCS or Winslow, although Winslow could eventually be a good two-way player. I'd take Hezonja over an injury-free WCS, but given the stress fracture of WCS he's got an even higher bar to overcome, especially in light of the info that Rainmaker provided.
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I didn't mention other players in the draft as our analysis was on specific players, but this line should have made it clear that I thought there would be better players available - "but given where we'll be drafting, he's not at the top of my list."

Regardless, we don't disagree too much, although I'd definitely take WCS over him.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#43
#43
lawlman91 said:
Got a feeling Winslow will be very, very good years from now. But WCS is what we need right now.
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I try to make this point every year... the purpose of the draft is to identify and develop elite talent. If you don't see anyone on the board who you think has that kind of potential you can consider immediate needs, but you don't pass on star level players to fill immediate needs. You can find a rotation player in free agency, it's a lot harder to find stars and convince them to leave their current team with a max offer on the table.

This should be self-evident. A competent defensive big could push us into a lower playoff seed next year. An additional star at any position 2 or 3 years from now makes us a contender in the middle of Cousins' career peak. That should be our goal here.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#46
#46
twslam07 said:
That is if we get some immediate help for Cousins to get him to stick around long enough to see his career peak.
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Granted, but we do have cap space to spend as well. About 10-13 million this year and another 20 next year. I just don't see the point in passing on a player you're convinced will be a star because your 30 win team has a particular need for a defensive big. Take the star if you can get them. You're going to be much better off.
 
ockingsfan

ockingsfan

Starter
#47
#47
bajaden said:
Look, if you want to bring up that there's some risk based on past history, fine! But don't make a mountain out of a mole hill. He just played an entire season without any injuries. Maybe you should turn your attention to Cousins who has had several sprained ankles, and recurring shoulder injuries. Any red flags there? Just saying. There is risk with any player you draft. Particularly players that bang under the basket, or spend a lot of time above the rim. I'd be more worried about WCS if he weighed 280 lbs. The Kings, and whomever else is interested in him will have him examined by their doctors. In the meantime, I'll have a talk with god and see if I can't get you a five year warranty on WCS.
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WCS had three screws and a metal plate inserted into his ankle to stabilize the ankle injury.

That does not sound like a simple sprained ankle to me.

Here is the article discussing the stress fracture and the procedure to stabilize it:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/badg...nally-living-dream-b99473961z1-298559011.html

Please also keep in mind that WCS was only played about 21 min per game for Kentucky and a full season is 40 games, not 82 games.

I also want WCS, but you need to do your due diligence when it comes to evaluating the players health and future concerns.

I am not saying no to WCS, but we need to look at all the facts before we make our pick.
 
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twslam07

twslam07

All-Star
#49
#49
hrdboild said:
Granted, but we do have cap space to spend as well. About 10-13 million this year and another 20 next year. I just don't see the point in passing on a player you're convinced will be a star because your 30 win team has a particular need for a defensive big. Take the star if you can get them. You're going to be much better off.
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I understand the point you are trying to make, but this is where my disagreement comes from mostly:
hrdboild said:
You don't pass on star level players to fill immediate needs. You can find a rotation player in free agency
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Cauley-Stein is projected to be a player in the mold of T. Chandler/D. Jordan/Noel etc. The fact that you're lumping passing on Cauley-Stein to take a player who has "elite talent" into the argument of "You can find a rotation player in free agency" is where I have my quarrels. Guys like that are very, very hard to get in FA. Jordan is on track to get the max this offseason and has multiple suitors after him (all who seem to be big market teams). Suggesting that we can grab a guy like Jordan nonchalantly in FA is silly. Those guys can be just as hard to land in FA (especially for a small market team), and can be just as important to a team's success.
 
Spike

Spike

Subsidiary Intermediary
Staff member
#50
#50
hrdboild said:
Granted, but we do have cap space to spend as well. About 10-13 million this year and another 20 next year. I just don't see the point in passing on a player you're convinced will be a star because your 30 win team has a particular need for a defensive big. Take the star if you can get them. You're going to be much better off.
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Because we're not going to have enough money to bring in a star at Cousins's level, and we can't gamble on drafting one. No draft pick is a sure thing anymore. Best case scenario, we're at the same spot we're in right now in two years.

We've hitched our wagon to Cousins; we need players to build around him. One (athletic, defensive PF) is readily attainable in this draft. We have a better shot at the other pieces in free agency.
 
Spike

Spike

Subsidiary Intermediary
Staff member
#51
#51
twslam07 said:
Cauley-Stein is projected to be a player in the mold of T. Chandler/D. Jordan/Noel etc. The fact that you're lumping passing on Cauley-Stein to take a player who has "elite talent" into the argument of "You can find a rotation player in free agency" is where I have my quarrels. Guys like that are very, very hard to get in FA. Jordan is on track to get the max this offseason and has multiple suitors after him (all who seem to be big market teams). Suggesting that we can grab a guy like Jordan nonchalantly in FA is silly. Those guys can be just as hard to land in FA (especially for a small market team), and can be just as important to a team's success.
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FA bigs are routinely overpaid. Throw in the extra "come to Sac" fee, and, well, that's a big chunk of your budget. Shooters, by and large, role-playing 3 & D shooters, can be had for much less.
 
bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#52
#52
hrdboild said:
Granted, but we do have cap space to spend as well. About 10-13 million this year and another 20 next year. I just don't see the point in passing on a player you're convinced will be a star because your 30 win team has a particular need for a defensive big. Take the star if you can get them. You're going to be much better off.
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It's your qualification that helps make my decision to draft WCS over Winslow. I'm not convinced that Winslow will be a star. I think there's a chance, but that's all. I'am convinced that Towns will be a star and that Russell will be a star, and that Okafor will be a star, and maybe, Mudiay. But that's it. What I'am convinced of is that Cauley-Stein will be a huge help to the Kings in an area where they need help. He may never be a star, but he could be the difference between winning and losing in a lot of close games. Now granted, there will be players from this draft that will become stars that we didn't even consider. Jimmy Butler springs to mind. I think if you drew up a player on paper to play next to Cousins, you couldn't come much closer than Cauley-Stein. The only player I like better, at that position is Towns.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#53
#53
twslam07 said:
I understand the point you are trying to make, but this is where my disagreement comes from mostly:


Cauley-Stein is projected to be a player in the mold of T. Chandler/D. Jordan/Noel etc. The fact that you're lumping passing on Cauley-Stein to take a player who has "elite talent" into the argument of "You can find a rotation player in free agency" is where I have my quarrels. Guys like that are very, very hard to get in FA. Jordan is on track to get the max this season, and has multiple suitors after him (all who seem to be big market teams). Suggesting that we can grab a guy like Jordan nonchalantly in FA is silly. Those guys can be just as hard to land in FA (especially for a small market team), and can be just as important to a team's success.
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I wasn't talking about WCS in particular, or even Winslow for that matter. I was responding to the idea that you might pass on a player you really like for a player you like less that plays a position you currently need more. That's what I disagree with. You get so few chances to draft a star player anyway, don't second guess yourself, just take the player you like the best.

The kinds of players you're talking about.. Jordan, Chandler, Noel.. these are star players. If Cauley-Stein is in that category, he's not a rotation player. At that point its a matter of assigning relative value. I would take a perennial DPOY candidate over a 20pt scorer, I have no problem with that. What I'm not going to do is pass on Paul George or Stephen Curry for the next Drew Gooden or Robin Lopez because I've decided before the draft that getting a defensive big is my biggest priority.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#54
#54
There's a perfect example of this in the 2009 draft btw. Defensive-minded Memphis picked Hasheem Thabeet 2nd overall thinking they had their C of the future. Draft sites compared him to Dikembe Mutombo. The next pick was James Harden. Oops. All I'm saying is, whoever you pick, pick them because you believe in that player. Don't pick them because of who draft sites compare them to or where they're projected to go because nobody is even going to remember that 5 years from now, they're just going to remember that you screwed up. If you believe in WCS, great! Pick him with a smile on your face. If you've got a great feeling about Winslow, pick Winslow. Who cares about conventional wisdom? Every year the experts swing and miss like crazy.
 
rainmaker

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
#55
#55
bajaden said:
Look, if you want to bring up that there's some risk based on past history, fine! But don't make a mountain out of a mole hill. He just played an entire season without any injuries. Maybe you should turn your attention to Cousins who has had several sprained ankles, and recurring shoulder injuries. Any red flags there? Just saying.
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Baja, those types of injuries don't carry the same risk as a stress fracture, especially in a 7'1" 240lb PF who plays above the rim and is likely to put on more weight as he matures.

I'm not saying I wouldn't pick him, but a stress fracture on a guy that big probably ranks just below a guy having a serious knee injury in college. A stress fracture is a product of stress building over time, it's a structural issue. Not having it pop up this year in college doesn't negate the longer term risk.
 
Iced Espresso

Iced Espresso

Starter
#56
#56
I'm comfortable with WCS.

He could easily end up all defensive second or third team after a couple of years. He can finish at the rim, rebounds, can toss him a lob, so he can be effective while staying out of the more ball dominant fellas way.

This guy is agile as heck too, the other teams big is going to have to work, he will help if our perimeter guys get beat.

Thompson is still here if we match up against Randolph etc, seems like the perfect fit to me.

Honestly I'll be disappointed if we trade the pick and he was on the table. I think him reaching his "potential" is pretty good odds wise as well.
 
ockingsfan

ockingsfan

Starter
#57
#57
rainmaker said:
Baja, those types of injuries don't carry the same risk as a stress fracture, especially in a 7'1" 240lb PF who plays above the rim and is likely to put on more weight as he matures.

I'm not saying I wouldn't pick him, but a stress fracture on a guy that big probably ranks just below a guy having a serious knee injury in college. A stress fracture is a product of stress building over time, it's a structural issue. Not having it pop up this year in college doesn't negate the longer term risk.
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I like WCS just as much as a lot of you. But, I just started digging a little deeper into why he missed the 2014 NCAA tournament and found some very alarming reports on his injury.

WCS did not just sprain his ankle, he had a stress fracture and had 3 screws and a metal plate inserted into the ankle to stabilize it.

People are just ignoring a very serious injury for an NBA big man, as though there is no impact on future durability.

Here are the two articles I found about the injury that everyone should read before deciding on WCS:

http://kentuckysportsradio.com/basketball-2/an-update-on-willie-cauley-steins-ankle/

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...ght-on-injury-he-suffered-in-ncaa-tournament/

If WCS is completely healed, with no hot spots on his ankle, then sure he would be a good pick.

My worry is drafting a big man with a history of a stress fracture in the ankles and then something happens.
 
Dreadnought

Dreadnought

Bench
#59
#59
Iced Espresso said:
At some point you have to trust the medical staff and physical. I'm not a doc, and even so I'd have to be privileged to observe him. He looks like he can move to me, it's not a knee or Achilles.
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And to add on to you, at the end of the day, no matter how much people might not believe it, we don't make a single decision towards who gets drafted.
 
c-webb1s#1

c-webb1s#1

Starter
#60
#60
I'm not sold on WCS, I would really like us to trade the pick and get someone who can ball immediately. No way in hell I want to be ripping my hair out while I watch Ben, nik, and WCS cost us games as they mature into better ball players. Ben to a lesser extent if he can make another leap but we need to get this momentum train going! enough with the hopes and dreams we entrust rookies and sophomores to deliver for us and themselves...Everyone is acting like WCS is going to come in and fill a need for us that JT does better. I'd much rather trade the pick for a big with some semblance of scoring and smarts so we can have some low post scoring when cuz goes to the bench. that's is unless you want to see JT and WCS clank hooks hots and miss layups will nik and Ben clank from 3 lol the starting lineup has issues but it's pretty solid...it's that bench that kills us because nobody can score and they all play lost most of the time.
 
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