The 2015 KF.com Draft Big Board Part 2: Kings' Range

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#1
We continue the KF.com Draft Big Board project with our second installment full of players that should be available in the Kings' range. We expect that at least one of these players won't be available at #6, but we don't know which one. You will note that one player in our range here (Trey Lyles) is currently slotted well outside of the top ten on at least one of the more respected draft boards, but the consensus amongst us is that this is the range where Lyles belongs. Without further ado, here is the remainder of the top ten - players we should be strongly thinking about at our expected pick range.

Kings' Range (approximate draft position 5-10):

Willie Cauley-Stein (C/PF, Junior, 21 y.o., Kentucky)
25.9 mpg - 8.9 ppg - 57.3% fgp - 6.4 rpg - 1.2 spg - 1.7 bpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA Draft Combine)
Height in shoes: 7'0.5"
Weight: 242 pounds
Wingspan: 7'3"
Standing Reach: 9'3"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 37" (From Kentucky Pro Day)


Analysis: I'll preface this by saying that WCS is my favorite player in the draft. Not the most talented, but my favorite. The moment Willie Cauley-Stein sets foot on an NBA court, he'll be one of, if not the, most athletic big man (over 6'11") in the NBA. He should be an immediate impact player defensively for whomever drafts him. Think of a more athletic Tyson Chandler, who should over time be a much better offensive player. More on his offense later. WCS is a shotblocker supreme with terrific timing. He's an explosive leaper who also owns a terrific second leap. He averaged 3.6 blocks and 1.8 steals per 40 minutes per his career. I know some are worried about at his downtick to 1.7 blocks this past season, but this was an abberation. As a sophomore, when he was the primary basket defender, he blocked a more impressive 2.9 shots a game. With the addition of Towns to the team WCS was asked to step away from the basket and guard the pick and roll and as a result, he spent a lot of time guarding on the perimeter. His elite lateral quickness allows him to guard even the smaller perimeter players on a switch. At times, he was even asked to be the primary defender on a guard for important stretches of game time. I watched PGs and SGs alike struggle to get past Cauley-Stein. His pick and roll defense is nothing short of outstanding. Time after time, when the other team's PG would come off the pick, he would be staring at Cauley-Stein, who had slid from his man to stop the ball, and would then get back to his man in time to contest the shot or cut off the lane to the basket. Offensively, it's a different story. He's not inept, but it's not his strength. While his freethrow shooting still leaves something to be desired, he has improved from 37.2% his freshman year to 61.7% this past season. He has gone from not having a mid-range jumpshot his freshman year to a very consistent but seldom used jumpshot this past season. So there's hope for more improvement in the future. He runs the floor like a deer, and often beats the opposition down the floor, which should make him a perfect target for Cousins outlet passes. He's smart, and he'll cut backdoor if you fall asleep on him. The bulk of his scoring came off of transition baskets (completed 77%), and alley oops. His post game needs a lot of work, and he needs to get a lot stronger, particularly his base strength. His ballhandling ability is very basic at this point, however he only needs one dribble to get to the basket from the freethrow line due to his athleticism. He's a limited passer who makes the easy pass but not the spectacular one, but he doesn't turn the ball over much. Lastly, at times his mind appears to be somewhere else as he loses focus. He's improved in that area, but once in the NBA, he needs to retain focus 100% of the time. His personality will remind some of Scott Pollard. -- Bajaden


Justise Winslow (SG/SF, Freshman, 19 y.o., Duke)
29.1 mpg - 12.6 ppg - .486% fgp - .418% 3pp - 6.5 rpg - 2.1 apg - 1.3 spg

Stats (from 2015 NBA Draft Combine)
Height in shoes: 6'6.5"
Weight: 222 pounds
Wingspan: 6'10.25"
Standing Reach: 8'8.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Winslow really helped himself by playing great down the stretch and arguably being Duke's most important player. He has great size for the SG position and should be able to play SF effectively as well. It remains to be seen which will be his primary position, but at the moment I like him best as a big physical SG. He's a two-way player who, although not a brilliant ball handler, can definitely do a solid job handling the ball and get to the rim. When he gets there, he's a good finisher due to his strength and athleticism. He's a lean 230, which is pretty huge for a player of his size. He's a very good athlete, perhaps a level below "freak" but certainly above average, even for his position. His shot is often cited as a weakness, but he shot 41% from beyond the arc on the year. At the very least, it shows that he takes good shots and the foundation is there for him to become a real threat from distance. Defensively he has a lot of potential and is already a good defender. He's very strong and physical and has excellent lateral quickness. He plays the passing lanes well but more importantly, he understands team defense and it wasn't uncommon to see him come over to make a weakside block. He's a smart player and there's no reason why he can't be one of the best wing defenders in the NBA down the road. His strength means it's difficult to back him down regardless of who the offensive player is. He even did a good job defending PFs at the collegiate level, though you'd suspect the size difference will be too much to do that often at the next level. He's a good rebounder for his position and should be a + at his position in rebounding terms. Personality-wise, I really like Justise. He's charismatic and very intelligent, oozes confidence, and has the personality of a star, an aspect of players that is constantly overlooked. He's a hard worker and very competitive, so I don't really see a way he busts at the next level. At the very least, you should have a solid starter level player, and possibly much more. I really like Winslow, and even though he's not top of my list, I can't say I would be disappointed to end up with him. Of course, that would mean we'd have to make a big trade given that we just drafted two SGs and have Gay at SF. Winslow's ceiling is as an all-star type player with all-defensive honours. Not too shabby if he ever reaches those lofty heights. -- Dime Dropper


Stanley Johnson (SF, Freshman, 18 y.o., Arizona)
28.4 mpg - 13.8 ppg - 44.6% fgp - 37.1% 3pp - 6.5 rpg - 1.7 spg - 2.2 TOpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA Draft Combine)
Height in shoes: 6'6.5"
Weight: 242 pounds
Wingspan: 6'11.5"
Standing Reach: 8'6"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: One of the youngest players in the draft, but at the same time one of the most impressive in terms of body development. Polished offensively and is an effective triple threat player, though not a dominant presence on offense. Lacks quick first step, so his driving game is about putting the defender on his hip and powering towards the rim. Doesn't have to go all the way to the rim as he already can pull up for a short jumper or a push shot. Despite settling for a jumper gets his share of FTs. Outside shooting needs work as his shot is rather flat, so Johnson might struggle adjusting to longer distances at first. Wasn't in a good situation, being surrounded by older rather ball-dominant players with a lack of shooting. This was the primary reason for his high TO numbers, though handles could use improvement as well. Middle of the season Johnson had quite a few impressive scoring bursts suggesting that there might be more to his game. Not a quick leaper despite impressive physical profile, which leads to some struggles with finishing around the hoop. Strong upper body allows him to go after rebounds aggressively, though converting rebounds into points is a problem - a pathetic 33% of his putback attempts get in. Excellent in transition as he has enough speed to lead the break himself or run the lane next to ballhandler. Defensively he should be strong and quick enough to deal with most SFs, but will likely struggle with SGs. Unless he grows a bit, putting him at PF probably shouldn't happen, since he lacks length. His strong hands are always a threat to rip the ball away from the ballhandler - steals usually result in one man fast breaks. Helps on defensive boards. Smart, unselfish and a good teammate. In terms of upside could probably peak as 3rd/weak 2nd option for a contender, while getting occasional votes for defensive honors. -- Gilles

Trey Lyles (PF/SF, Freshman, 19 y.o., Kentucky)
23 mpg - 8.7 ppg - 48.8% fgp - 53.6% 2pp - 5.2 rpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'10.25"
Weight: 241 pounds
Wingspan: 7'1.5"
Standing Reach: 9'0"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Lyles may be the best kept secret on the Kentucky team. Unselfish, nose for the ball, great competitor, glue guy, great basketball IQ, are all things that spring to mind when I think of Lyles. If he had been on just about any other team, he likely would have been the star of that team. He's an excellent passer, whether on the perimeter, in the post in traffic, or as an outlet passer. He handles the ball very well, and is capable of putting it on the floor and taking his man off the dribble. He's a good rebounder and not afraid to bang under the basket. He has a very consistent 15 to 18 foot jumpshot, and he can score with either hand in the post. He only shot 13.8% from the three, but took very few shots from there, many with the shot clock running down. His form is good, so I can see him extending his range out to the three. He's not a great athlete, slightly above average, and doesn't appear explosive around the basket, but uses his length well. Shotblocking isn't one of his strengths, but he's a decent to good man defender in the post, though he had to play out of position almost all year at the SF where his perimeter defense needs work. In short, Lyles is a very skilled big man who isn't elite at any one thing, but is good at almost everything. He's the kind of player that every team needs, and wants on their team. If he can extend the range on his jumpshot, and get a little stronger, he can be a valuable player in the league. -- Bajaden


Kristaps Porzingis (PF, 19 y.o., Latvia)
21.4 mpg - 11.1 ppg - 49.9% fgp - 36.9% 3pp - 4.5 rpg - 1.1 bpg - 0.9 spg

Stats (Not available, media estimates)
Height in shoes: 6'11"
Weight: 230 pounds
Wingspan: N/A
Standing Reach: N/A
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Porzingis is probably the biggest wildcard near the top of the lottery. He's somewhat of a mystery, and unfortunately I'm not the guy whose going to figure him out. I've seen him a few times, but nowhere near enough to know that I want the Kings to be the team to take that risk. Here's what I do know: Athletically, he's impressive. He's got very good size and length for the PF position, and also the mobility to defend true PFs (stretch 4s maybe not, but I'm not worried about those). Needs to get stronger, but he moves extremely well for a guy his size and can finish plays with authority. He has very, very long arms but a somewhat narrow body, so expect his standing reach to be more impressive than his wingspan. Better jumper off one foot than two, which will hurt his max vertical, but it's not uncommon to see Porzingis be on the receiving end of a pretty alley-oop, or to finish a putback in impressive fashion. Offensively is where people are hoping he can shine. He's skilled, with a very capable longball. He has good form and is virtually impossible to block due to his sheer size. He has a solid foundation of skill to build upon as he has a good IQ and tends to know what he can and can't do. He doesn't have much of a low post game at the minute, but there has to be hope there given his size, fluidity and shooting ability. He's shown signs of a turnaround jumper on the block, which can be a weapon for him if he works on it. He's not an amazing passer, but he's solid. He's also quite a good ball-handler for someone his size. He has very soft hands and doesn't have any problems catching passes. Rebounding wise - he's not awful but he's not great. He should be solid at the next level if he gets stronger. Defensively, he doesn't have great lateral quickness but does a decent job using his long arms to get in the passing lanes. He's shown solid potential as a shot-blocker, using his size, length and jumping ability to help on the weakside. His instincts here are pretty decent, though he's probably never going to be a big-time goalie type player. He has solid intangibles, seems to have some confidence/swagger which is always good to see, and off the court seems like a very smart and nice kid. I'm very curious to see how Kristaps does at the next level. He's, in my eyes, one of those make or break type players. The potential is clear for all to see, but you can also see that he's a big risk. He won't be top of my list, regardless of where we're picking, but that's something that could make me look silly in five years. I simply haven't seen enough of him to say I would want him at 6 (or wherever we pick), given who else will be available. But definitely one to watch. He could get a GM fired or make a GM look like a genius. -- Dime Dropper


Mario Hezonja (SG, 20 y.o., Croatia)
15 mpg - 6.3 ppg - 46.7% fgp - 40% 3pp - 2 rpg - 1 apg

Stats (Not available, media estimates)
Height in shoes: 6'7"
Weight: 200 pounds
Wingspan: N/A
Standing Reach: N/A
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Hezonja has great size for the SG position, and can probably play spot minutes at the positions either side of him. But his natural position is SG. He's tall but he needs to get stronger, as many young players do. He's a smart player with a high IQ, who like most European prospects, can do a little bit of everything offensively. Has good handles (though I think he palms the ball sometimes, something he may need to cut out, but it's not going to be an issue long term), good court vision and passing ability, and a good vision of the game. He is a very capable shooter with solid form and a good release. What's going to surprise people is that the guy is an excellent athlete. I'm not talking about being an excellent athlete for a euro, I'm talking about being an excellent athlete by NBA standards. A level below elite, but he is very fluid, quick and has major hops. If he gets a chance, he's putting you on a poster. Something I like about him is that he has an attitude (in fact this has been a knock on him according to some sources), he doesn't back down from anyone and he's highly competitive. Some people have said that he's troublesome to deal with. I'm not sure how true this is or isn't. I do know he hasn't had any major issues (or minor for that matter). It's probably nitpicking to cite this as a weakness as by all accounts he's a good guy. I'd personally prefer someone who has that fire. Weakness wise, he needs to get stronger, his defense isn't bad and he has solid potential there due to his size and athleticism, but as with most young players, he has work to do. He's going to have to change his mindset when he gets to the NBA. I think he has great potential and will watch him with great interest, but given where we'll be drafting, he's not at the top of my list, especially given that we've just drafted two SGs. I think he's going to take a few years to really hit the ground, but he can be a very good player for a team in the future. -- Dime Dropper
 
#4
Great thread guys, this is the real interesting tier in my opinion. I think that Lyles is slightly under-rated by some draft sites but I really see him a tier below WCS and Porzingis in terms of upside (and guys that are well-rounded/limited upside is the classic 10-15 range players), and I really don't see us taking him (DraftExpress have him at 17, ESPN at 16).

Johnson is really young, but I think a lot of people over-rate him- at least in the sense of what can he give you short-term which i think is very little.
He has very good defensive potential- but he is far from good at this point, he is struggling greatly at the rim shooting only 43.8% at rim and going too many times for a hard floater. those numbers are even worse against Tournament teams with 38.1% at the Rim and he is struggling to finish over length (not explosive). he is a bit TO prone, and I'll say he isn't very consistent (and the last thing we need is another inconsistent guy on the wing).

Overall I think that Lyles will be a nice player- but nothing much to talk about, and that Stanley will need time to develop (which is reasonable considering he still have 2 weeks until he turns 19). Porzingis is still a mystery to me, and I don't know if we could take that risk- although an outside shooting, weak-side defender/blocker, nice passing, long and athletic 4 is exactly what you would like to see next to Cousins I think maybe he is to big of a risk. I got to see Hezonja a little bit and I agree with your analysis on him completely.

IMO outside the top 4 guys in this draft, Winslow and WCS are clearly next in line in their own mini-tier. if we luck out and get leap-frogged by someone into the 7th seed and all of those guys are already taken- I'd take a long look at Myles Turner you kept out of this tier, I really believe that he can become a very good player and his upside to me is as high as anyone else in this draft.
 
#5
Turner is Vonleh-level ready. At least Johnson can compete on D and spot-up.
Winslow is not a reliable shooter at the moment and absolutely cannot shoot off the dribble.
No 1&done rookie should be expected to produce for 3 months at least. Same with both euros.
 
#6
This is the video I originally posted for my Hezonja write-up, to give people an idea of his athleticism:


We decided against including clips in the end, but no harm in posting it in the comments for anyone whose interested.
 
#7
Turner is Vonleh-level ready. At least Johnson can compete on D and spot-up.
Winslow is not a reliable shooter at the moment and absolutely cannot shoot off the dribble.
No 1&done rookie should be expected to produce for 3 months at least. Same with both euros.
I really don't think Turner is "Vonleh-level" ready, he was misused this year, but I think he is good at a lot of aspects of defense right now, and he does have an atleast ok jump-shot and great size as a PF.

Johnson can't finish at the rim (he has been borderline pathetic against good college teams at 2 point shots as a whole and especially at the rim), he is by no means a knock-down shooter (37.1% from 3 on 3.1 attempts, to Winslow's 41.4% on 2.8 attempts) and again, he is not nearly the defender people make him out to be (unlike Winslow), he has the tools and potential to be a good defender but he can often lose focus and get lost, and his lack of explosiveness puts a cap on his ceiling.

As for immediate impact, when I say it will take Johnson time to develop I'm talking about a few seasons not 3 months. I think Winslow have room to grow but he can come with a nice skill-set to begin with, although i would say he is a streaky shooter, he is very good at making cuts to the basket, scoring in trasition, he is a VERY good rebounder- especially as a big SG and he is already a far better defender than Johnson imo.

Another guy I can see getting along ok his first year is Hezonja- he is getting playing time for Barcelona, which plays n the spanish league (best domestic league outside the NBA) and top-level Euroleague, he have more experience playing at a high level (see Mirotic) in general, and playing with older/better-at-the-moment players than him so he should already be comfortable on doing a specific role for a team.
 
#9
This is a shot chart of a suspect shooter, who got confidence shooting from a couple of spots


Johnson's shot chart with no clear weak spots is that of a competent shooter. And just looking at DX video of Delon Wright vs Arizona, it's clear Stanimal knows, how to play defense.

Turner faded in Conference play just like Vonleh: TS% and assists plummeted, rebounds dropped a bit - he's not ready.

Hezonja, if drafted by Sixers, might average close to 20 ppg. Drafted by PO team he'd average under 10 mpg in the first part of the season.
 
#10
We continue the KF.com Draft Big Board project with our second installment full of players that should be available in the Kings' range. We expect that at least one of these players won't be available at #6, but we don't know which one. You will note that one player in our range here (Trey Lyles) is currently slotted well outside of the top ten on at least one of the more respected draft boards, but the consensus amongst us is that this is the range where Lyles belongs. Without further ado, here is the remainder of the top ten - players we should be strongly thinking about at our expected pick range.

Kings' Range (approximate draft position 5-10):

Willie Cauley-Stein (C/PF, Junior, 21 y.o., Kentucky)
25.9 mpg - 8.9 ppg - 57.3% fgp - 6.4 rpg - 1.2 spg - 1.7 bpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA Draft Combine)
Height in shoes: 7'0.5"
Weight: 242 pounds
Wingspan: 7'3"
Standing Reach: 9'3"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 37" (From Kentucky Pro Day)


Analysis: I'll preface this by saying that WCS is my favorite player in the draft. Not the most talented, but my favorite. The moment Willie Cauley-Stein sets foot on an NBA court, he'll be one of, if not the, most athletic big man (over 6'11") in the NBA. He should be an immediate impact player defensively for whomever drafts him. Think of a more athletic Tyson Chandler, who should over time be a much better offensive player. More on his offense later. WCS is a shotblocker supreme with terrific timing. He's an explosive leaper who also owns a terrific second leap. He averaged 3.6 blocks and 1.8 steals per 40 minutes per his career. I know some are worried about at his downtick to 1.7 blocks this past season, but this was an abberation. As a sophomore, when he was the primary basket defender, he blocked a more impressive 2.9 shots a game. With the addition of Towns to the team WCS was asked to step away from the basket and guard the pick and roll and as a result, he spent a lot of time guarding on the perimeter. His elite lateral quickness allows him to guard even the smaller perimeter players on a switch. At times, he was even asked to be the primary defender on a guard for important stretches of game time. I watched PGs and SGs alike struggle to get past Cauley-Stein. His pick and roll defense is nothing short of outstanding. Time after time, when the other team's PG would come off the pick, he would be staring at Cauley-Stein, who had slid from his man to stop the ball, and would then get back to his man in time to contest the shot or cut off the lane to the basket. Offensively, it's a different story. He's not inept, but it's not his strength. While his freethrow shooting still leaves something to be desired, he has improved from 37.2% his freshman year to 61.7% this past season. He has gone from not having a mid-range jumpshot his freshman year to a very consistent but seldom used jumpshot this past season. So there's hope for more improvement in the future. He runs the floor like a deer, and often beats the opposition down the floor, which should make him a perfect target for Cousins outlet passes. He's smart, and he'll cut backdoor if you fall asleep on him. The bulk of his scoring came off of transition baskets (completed 77%), and alley oops. His post game needs a lot of work, and he needs to get a lot stronger, particularly his base strength. His ballhandling ability is very basic at this point, however he only needs one dribble to get to the basket from the freethrow line due to his athleticism. He's a limited passer who makes the easy pass but not the spectacular one, but he doesn't turn the ball over much. Lastly, at times his mind appears to be somewhere else as he loses focus. He's improved in that area, but once in the NBA, he needs to retain focus 100% of the time. His personality will remind some of Scott Pollard. -- Bajaden


Justise Winslow (SG/SF, Freshman, 19 y.o., Duke)
29.1 mpg - 12.6 ppg - .486% fgp - .418% 3pp - 6.5 rpg - 2.1 apg - 1.3 spg

Stats (from 2015 NBA Draft Combine)
Height in shoes: 6'6.5"
Weight: 222 pounds
Wingspan: 6'10.25"
Standing Reach: 8'8.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Winslow really helped himself by playing great down the stretch and arguably being Duke's most important player. He has great size for the SG position and should be able to play SF effectively as well. It remains to be seen which will be his primary position, but at the moment I like him best as a big physical SG. He's a two-way player who, although not a brilliant ball handler, can definitely do a solid job handling the ball and get to the rim. When he gets there, he's a good finisher due to his strength and athleticism. He's a lean 230, which is pretty huge for a player of his size. He's a very good athlete, perhaps a level below "freak" but certainly above average, even for his position. His shot is often cited as a weakness, but he shot 41% from beyond the arc on the year. At the very least, it shows that he takes good shots and the foundation is there for him to become a real threat from distance. Defensively he has a lot of potential and is already a good defender. He's very strong and physical and has excellent lateral quickness. He plays the passing lanes well but more importantly, he understands team defense and it wasn't uncommon to see him come over to make a weakside block. He's a smart player and there's no reason why he can't be one of the best wing defenders in the NBA down the road. His strength means it's difficult to back him down regardless of who the offensive player is. He even did a good job defending PFs at the collegiate level, though you'd suspect the size difference will be too much to do that often at the next level. He's a good rebounder for his position and should be a + at his position in rebounding terms. Personality-wise, I really like Justise. He's charismatic and very intelligent, oozes confidence, and has the personality of a star, an aspect of players that is constantly overlooked. He's a hard worker and very competitive, so I don't really see a way he busts at the next level. At the very least, you should have a solid starter level player, and possibly much more. I really like Winslow, and even though he's not top of my list, I can't say I would be disappointed to end up with him. Of course, that would mean we'd have to make a big trade given that we just drafted two SGs and have Gay at SF. Winslow's ceiling is as an all-star type player with all-defensive honours. Not too shabby if he ever reaches those lofty heights. -- Dime Dropper


Stanley Johnson (SF, Freshman, 18 y.o., Arizona)
28.4 mpg - 13.8 ppg - 44.6% fgp - 37.1% 3pp - 6.5 rpg - 1.7 spg - 2.2 TOpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA Draft Combine)
Height in shoes: 6'6.5"
Weight: 242 pounds
Wingspan: 6'11.5"
Standing Reach: 8'6"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: One of the youngest players in the draft, but at the same time one of the most impressive in terms of body development. Polished offensively and is an effective triple threat player, though not a dominant presence on offense. Lacks quick first step, so his driving game is about putting the defender on his hip and powering towards the rim. Doesn't have to go all the way to the rim as he already can pull up for a short jumper or a push shot. Despite settling for a jumper gets his share of FTs. Outside shooting needs work as his shot is rather flat, so Johnson might struggle adjusting to longer distances at first. Wasn't in a good situation, being surrounded by older rather ball-dominant players with a lack of shooting. This was the primary reason for his high TO numbers, though handles could use improvement as well. Middle of the season Johnson had quite a few impressive scoring bursts suggesting that there might be more to his game. Not a quick leaper despite impressive physical profile, which leads to some struggles with finishing around the hoop. Strong upper body allows him to go after rebounds aggressively, though converting rebounds into points is a problem - a pathetic 33% of his putback attempts get in. Excellent in transition as he has enough speed to lead the break himself or run the lane next to ballhandler. Defensively he should be strong and quick enough to deal with most SFs, but will likely struggle with SGs. Unless he grows a bit, putting him at PF probably shouldn't happen, since he lacks length. His strong hands are always a threat to rip the ball away from the ballhandler - steals usually result in one man fast breaks. Helps on defensive boards. Smart, unselfish and a good teammate. In terms of upside could probably peak as 3rd/weak 2nd option for a contender, while getting occasional votes for defensive honors. -- Gilles

Trey Lyles (PF/SF, Freshman, 19 y.o., Kentucky)
23 mpg - 8.7 ppg - 48.8% fgp - 53.6% 2pp - 5.2 rpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'10.25"
Weight: 241 pounds
Wingspan: 7'1.5"
Standing Reach: 9'0"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 3X.X"


Analysis: Lyles may be the best kept secret on the Kentucky team. Unselfish, nose for the ball, great competitor, glue guy, great basketball IQ, are all things that spring to mind when I think of Lyles. If he had been on just about any other team, he likely would have been the star of that team. He's an excellent passer, whether on the perimeter, in the post in traffic, or as an outlet passer. He handles the ball very well, and is capable of putting it on the floor and taking his man off the dribble. He's a good rebounder and not afraid to bang under the basket. He has a very consistent 15 to 18 foot jumpshot, and he can score with either hand in the post. He only shot 13.8% from the three, but took very few shots from there, many with the shot clock running down. His form is good, so I can see him extending his range out to the three. He's not a great athlete, slightly above average, and doesn't appear explosive around the basket, but uses his length well. Shotblocking isn't one of his strengths, but he's a decent to good man defender in the post, though he had to play out of position almost all year at the SF where his perimeter defense needs work. In short, Lyles is a very skilled big man who isn't elite at any one thing, but is good at almost everything. He's the kind of player that every team needs, and wants on their team. If he can extend the range on his jumpshot, and get a little stronger, he can be a valuable player in the league. -- Bajaden


Kristaps Porzingis (PF, 19 y.o., Latvia)
21.4 mpg - 11.1 ppg - 49.9% fgp - 36.9% 3pp - 4.5 rpg - 1.1 bpg - 0.9 spg

Stats (Not available, media estimates)
Height in shoes: 6'11"
Weight: 230 pounds
Wingspan: N/A
Standing Reach: N/A
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Porzingis is probably the biggest wildcard near the top of the lottery. He's somewhat of a mystery, and unfortunately I'm not the guy whose going to figure him out. I've seen him a few times, but nowhere near enough to know that I want the Kings to be the team to take that risk. Here's what I do know: Athletically, he's impressive. He's got very good size and length for the PF position, and also the mobility to defend true PFs (stretch 4s maybe not, but I'm not worried about those). Needs to get stronger, but he moves extremely well for a guy his size and can finish plays with authority. He has very, very long arms but a somewhat narrow body, so expect his standing reach to be more impressive than his wingspan. Better jumper off one foot than two, which will hurt his max vertical, but it's not uncommon to see Porzingis be on the receiving end of a pretty alley-oop, or to finish a putback in impressive fashion. Offensively is where people are hoping he can shine. He's skilled, with a very capable longball. He has good form and is virtually impossible to block due to his sheer size. He has a solid foundation of skill to build upon as he has a good IQ and tends to know what he can and can't do. He doesn't have much of a low post game at the minute, but there has to be hope there given his size, fluidity and shooting ability. He's shown signs of a turnaround jumper on the block, which can be a weapon for him if he works on it. He's not an amazing passer, but he's solid. He's also quite a good ball-handler for someone his size. He has very soft hands and doesn't have any problems catching passes. Rebounding wise - he's not awful but he's not great. He should be solid at the next level if he gets stronger. Defensively, he doesn't have great lateral quickness but does a decent job using his long arms to get in the passing lanes. He's shown solid potential as a shot-blocker, using his size, length and jumping ability to help on the weakside. His instincts here are pretty decent, though he's probably never going to be a big-time goalie type player. He has solid intangibles, seems to have some confidence/swagger which is always good to see, and off the court seems like a very smart and nice kid. I'm very curious to see how Kristaps does at the next level. He's, in my eyes, one of those make or break type players. The potential is clear for all to see, but you can also see that he's a big risk. He won't be top of my list, regardless of where we're picking, but that's something that could make me look silly in five years. I simply haven't seen enough of him to say I would want him at 6 (or wherever we pick), given who else will be available. But definitely one to watch. He could get a GM fired or make a GM look like a genius. -- Dime Dropper


Mario Hezonja (SG, 20 y.o., Croatia)
15 mpg - 6.3 ppg - 46.7% fgp - 40% 3pp - 2 rpg - 1 apg

Stats (Not available, media estimates)
Height in shoes: 6'7"
Weight: 200 pounds
Wingspan: N/A
Standing Reach: N/A
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Hezonja has great size for the SG position, and can probably play spot minutes at the positions either side of him. But his natural position is SG. He's tall but he needs to get stronger, as many young players do. He's a smart player with a high IQ, who like most European prospects, can do a little bit of everything offensively. Has good handles (though I think he palms the ball sometimes, something he may need to cut out, but it's not going to be an issue long term), good court vision and passing ability, and a good vision of the game. He is a very capable shooter with solid form and a good release. What's going to surprise people is that the guy is an excellent athlete. I'm not talking about being an excellent athlete for a euro, I'm talking about being an excellent athlete by NBA standards. A level below elite, but he is very fluid, quick and has major hops. If he gets a chance, he's putting you on a poster. Something I like about him is that he has an attitude (in fact this has been a knock on him according to some sources), he doesn't back down from anyone and he's highly competitive. Some people have said that he's troublesome to deal with. I'm not sure how true this is or isn't. I do know he hasn't had any major issues (or minor for that matter). It's probably nitpicking to cite this as a weakness as by all accounts he's a good guy. I'd personally prefer someone who has that fire. Weakness wise, he needs to get stronger, his defense isn't bad and he has solid potential there due to his size and athleticism, but as with most young players, he has work to do. He's going to have to change his mindset when he gets to the NBA. I think he has great potential and will watch him with great interest, but given where we'll be drafting, he's not at the top of my list, especially given that we've just drafted two SGs. I think he's going to take a few years to really hit the ground, but he can be a very good player for a team in the future. -- Dime Dropper
Thanks for the great write up.

Do you have a breakdown of Myles Turner? I think he could be in play if the Kings get shafted in the Lottery and drop to 7 or 8.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#11
Thanks for the great write up.

Do you have a breakdown of Myles Turner? I think he could be in play if the Kings get shafted in the Lottery and drop to 7 or 8.
Was just thinking this. I would not be surprised to see us drop in the lotto, and I also would not be surprised if WCS gets picked just before us. Turner could be a good consolation prize. 7 footer who blocks shots like a mad man AND can hit the 3? I'd take a flier on a prospect like that if we miss out on WCS.
 
#12
I agree. If Hezonja gets drafted by a lottery team, he can avg close to 20ppg. On our team, he probably wouldn't even average 20mpg. I hate how 3 years down the line, people always ask why we didn't take player B instead of player A. Players develop under different unique circumstances.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#13
Thanks for the great write up.

Do you have a breakdown of Myles Turner? I think he could be in play if the Kings get shafted in the Lottery and drop to 7 or 8.
I'm glad you liked it! The credit here goes to Dime Dropper, Bajaden, and Gilles for their efforts on the players listed here.

Myles Turner will be one of the players featured in our next tier. In all likelihood that one will come out sometime following the lottery, so if we drop down there will be an opportunity to discuss him at length. Splitting the players out into appropriate tiers is always difficult, and Turner was one of the players on the cusp of this one that didn't make the cut.
 
#14
IMO outside the top 4 guys in this draft, Winslow and WCS are clearly next in line in their own mini-tier. if we luck out and get leap-frogged by someone into the 7th seed and all of those guys are already taken- I'd take a long look at Myles Turner you kept out of this tier, I really believe that he can become a very good player and his upside to me is as high as anyone else in this draft.
I tend to agree with this as well. If we stay at six, I take whichever of WCS or Winslow is available (assuming Towns, Okafor, Mudiay, and Russell are gone). At seven, it gets interesting. Same if we jump to two or three (I take Towns first and don't look back).
 

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
#15
Speculation Porzingis could go top 3.

http://www.nba.com/2015/news/featur...porzingis-could-be-picked-in-top-3/index.html

I must say he strikes me as the type of PF Karl might be highly intrigued by, especially with our inability to space the floor. I btw don't understand the comparisons to Pau. If anything, looks like the closest think to a young Dirk we've seen, but more athletic.

FWIW, Fraschilla thinks he has the same upside as Towns and Okafor.
 
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#16
Speculation Porzingis could go top 3.

http://www.nba.com/2015/news/featur...porzingis-could-be-picked-in-top-3/index.html

I must say he strikes me as the type of PF Karl might be highly intrigued by, especially with our inability to space the floor. I btw don't understand the comparisons to Pau. If anything, looks like the closest think to a young Dirk we've seen, but more athletic.

FWIW, Fraschilla thinks he has the same upside as Towns and Okafor.
Yeah, every year there's a guy that some team takes higher than expected. Porzingis could easily be that guy this year. I hope so, because it drops prospects that I'd prefer down a slot. I honestly think Mudiay or Russell could drop to us, or at least to 5. Winslow is another that could go top 4. Hezonja is another wildcard.

In one sense it is a shame that Cleveland weren't in the lottery this year. They could easily have taken Porzingis first after getting the first pick.

You're right about Porzingis though. He's nothing like Pau and I'm surprised anyone even made that comparison. He's a more athletic, less talented Dirk.
 
#17
Cousins being an anchor on defense WCS is a dire need I'd easily take Poringis over him. Though slight in frame scouts say he is a good pick and roll defender (much more important) and can block shots. Having a 7'0 who can spread the floor just opens it up for Boogie. Another comparison I saw was a more athletic Mirotic who had a great season. I wonder how he compares to Donatas Motiejunas from Houston who came into the league at a slight frame was 2 years older than him.
 

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
#19
Cousins being an anchor on defense WCS is a dire need I'd easily take Poringis over him. Though slight in frame scouts say he is a good pick and roll defender (much more important) and can block shots. Having a 7'0 who can spread the floor just opens it up for Boogie. Another comparison I saw was a more athletic Mirotic who had a great season. I wonder how he compares to Donatas Motiejunas from Houston who came into the league at a slight frame was 2 years older than him.
Motiejunas isn't near the same athlete and isn't as good a shooter. Much more comfortable inside. Better 1v1 defender, worse weakside defender.

I want nothing to do with a stretch 4 who cant defend. But an athletic stretch 4 who'll come from the weakside and block/contest shots definitely has my attention. That's someone who could pair very well with Cuz. I'm a fan of WCS and he'd help more next year but we really need shooting. I have no idea where we're going to get it from next year or the year after, not with Rudy at SF and DC at point. Even if we add an Afflalo or Matthews, I see our spacing suffering a fair amount . WCS makes a lot of sense if we have good outside threats on the perimeter, but we're awful.
 
#20
Motiejunas isn't near the same athlete and isn't as good a shooter. Much more comfortable inside. Better 1v1 defender, worse weakside defender.

I want nothing to do with a stretch 4 who cant defend. But an athletic stretch 4 who'll come from the weakside and block/contest shots definitely has my attention. That's someone who could pair very well with Cuz. I'm a fan of WCS and he'd help more next year but we really need shooting. I have no idea where we're going to get it from next year or the year after, not with Rudy at SF and DC at point. Even if we add an Afflalo or Matthews, I see our spacing suffering a fair amount . WCS makes a lot of sense if we have good outside threats on the perimeter, but we're awful.
Agreed all scouting reports say he's great pick and roll defender as well as a team defender. Don't need to block shots if you can rotate well and either take a charge or go straight up. Watching the playoffs have just put in my mind if you take WCS he's not playing more than 20mpg or the offense dies.

http://www.eurohopes.com/player/1478/kristaps-porzingis/
 

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
#21
Defense/Rebounding: As much as offensive potential Porzingis has, his defensive prowess is the part of his game making scouts salivating. His length, mobility, athleticism and terrific motor make him a special player on that end of the floor. With Porzingis on the floor, Cajasol’s defensive efficiency rating is much, much improved, going from 104,7 to 99,8 (first 12 ACB games). He shows an incredible ability as a weak side defender. He is able to cover a lot of ground in a couple of steps to use his length and timing in order to block or bother shots at the rim (5 blocks a game or 1 block every 6 minutes at the U18 championship, 2,3 blocks per 40 minutes in the ACB). He is also always willing to sacrifice his body in order to force a charge. His lateral mobility also makes him a special Pick and Roll defender, which has become a key area to any elite defender game at the NBA level. He is able to hedge and then recover extremely quickly, using his long arms to shut angle of passes. He also has the athleticism to switch onto the smaller guard, stay with him and force him into a contested jumper. His length and aggressiveness could make him the pillar of a very good zone defender as he is able to rotate and disrupt passing lanes with efficiency (2,5 steals per 40 minutes in the ACB).

You know, in the limited number of games I've seen him and going by this and a few other scouting reports, defensively he sounds a little like a PF version of AK47. But who knows. Projecting Euros is a bit of a crapshoot.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#22
Cousins being an anchor on defense WCS is a dire need I'd easily take Poringis over him. Though slight in frame scouts say he is a good pick and roll defender (much more important) and can block shots. Having a 7'0 who can spread the floor just opens it up for Boogie. Another comparison I saw was a more athletic Mirotic who had a great season. I wonder how he compares to Donatas Motiejunas from Houston who came into the league at a slight frame was 2 years older than him.
At the moment Motiejunas right leg weighs as much as Porzingis. I have no doubt that Porzingis has great upside, and is a good shooter. And granted, WCS is not going to pump in three's from the perimeter. But Porzingis isn't capable of guarding any NBA PF's in the post right now. He's about two years, and 25 pounds of muscle away from doing that. Also, WCS can fill two needs. One, playing the PF position next to Cuz, and two, sliding over to the center positon when Cuz gets a blow. No way in hell Porzingis can do that. In the short term WCS will have more impact, where Porzingis is a player that could be an all star in the long team. No guarantee's though. I've heard all this stuff about other european players that are back in europe playing basketball.
 
#23
The Question is always NBA ready vs Upside potential.

WCS is more NBA ready and should be a solid defensive anchor with limited offensive. Low risk- good reward type player.

Porzingis has more UPside then WCS. High risk-high reward type player. Is he the next Dirk or the the next Darko?

This is the dilemma for Vlade to decide. I can easily see him going with Porzingis over WCS, if both are available.

If Porzingis is a at least 2-3 years away from contributing, I think you have to go with WCS, otherwise you will lose DMC in two years.

If Porzingis is ready to contribute now and even more in 2-3 years, then this is a tough call for Vlade. But I think you have to go with possible future all-star over solid role player.
 
#24
The Question is always NBA ready vs Upside potential.

WCS is more NBA ready and should be a solid defensive anchor with limited offensive. Low risk- good reward type player.

Porzingis has more UPside then WCS. High risk-high reward type player. Is he the next Dirk or the the next Darko?

This is the dilemma for Vlade to decide. I can easily see him going with Porzingis over WCS, if both are available.

If Porzingis is a at least 2-3 years away from contributing, I think you have to go with WCS, otherwise you will lose DMC in two years.

If Porzingis is ready to contribute now and even more in 2-3 years, then this is a tough call for Vlade. But I think you have to go with possible future all-star over solid role player.


I half agree and half disagree. Usually I would say that yes, you take the all-star potential over role player, but that goes for teams that need that all-star talent. We already have one (Rudy) and one potential HOF talent. Maybe we do need that 3rd all-star player, but we need one that already is an all-star/near all-star and not might be in 3-5 years. What we need is to fill in the gaps with role players, and WCS will be just that, possibly a little more.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#26
Montrezl Harrell fits here perfectly
While that may be true to some extent, he's just a shorter version of WCS. He'll score a few more points, but he's no offensive juggernaut by any means. He has a great motor, but is an undersized PF in the mold of Faired. Wouldn't mind having him on my team, but I wouldn't take him over Cauley-Stein, who is a legit seven footer.
 

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
#28
Yes. That certainly is a risk.

Of note:

Overall, players suffering stress fractures since the 1999-2000 season played just 65.9 percent of games over the rest of their careers. They also suffered seven future stress fractures, and 34 percent of the players had future injury to the involved area.

Back stress injuries had the highest incidence of future injury and the highest percentage of future missed games, while foot stress injuries had the highest occurrence of future stress fractures. Based on this information, a player who suffers a stress fracture has roughly a one-in-three chance of having future issues with the injury.
 
#29
Yes. That certainly is a risk.

Of note:

Overall, players suffering stress fractures since the 1999-2000 season played just 65.9 percent of games over the rest of their careers. They also suffered seven future stress fractures, and 34 percent of the players had future injury to the involved area.

Back stress injuries had the highest incidence of future injury and the highest percentage of future missed games, while foot stress injuries had the highest occurrence of future stress fractures. Based on this information, a player who suffers a stress fracture has roughly a one-in-three chance of having future issues with the injury.
These are not good odds.

Is WCS worth the risk?
 
#30
Foot injury is always worrisome, especially for a big man, but there's a reason, nobody is talking about WCS' injury.
Almost all of stress fractures from prolonged pressure overload on bones are so-called "hairline". It's basically a thin crack, treatment for which is limited to cleaning up possible debris and wearing a cast. It's also a sign, that body is not coping well with current workload, which was not a good sign for Embiid, since it developed under a moderate strain of college season.
WCS had an ankle break. Surgeon went in, put metal plate and screws. At some point in early February ankle started to feel sore, but they decided against clean-up surgery, waited it out, pain went away, and WCS had arguably best sequence of the season right after that, while not missing any games. He clearly got back explosiveness in all dimensions, so for now it doesn't present any problem.
I'm sure, all the teams interested in him will ask for tests, so if he suddenly starts to drop, then it means, injury became a concern.