Draft position thread
- Thread starter Big Cuz 15
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Today, 4 April, the Kings are tied with Detroit for the 7th slot in the draft. The 6 teams below them are all 2 games or more out in the lost column. So once again Kings are #7. The draft odds never favor the Kings the last 10 years getting them up to #4 I think once. Hell, lets win out for some momentum using all the young guys and let PDA and Malone do their magic in trades and take what comes in the draft. Who knows, Phoenix have 3 picks in first round. Maybe they would take DWill for one of them?
That wasn't "up". We moved down to #4 that year - the lowest we could have gone.
As a matter of fact, the lottery system was changed to the "ball" system in 1990 (although the odds were updated significantly in 1994). In 1991, the Kings had the third-best odds at the #1 spot and had their lotto combo selected at #3 - we didn't move up but we didn't fall down. That was the only time in franchise history our lotto combo has been selected. 14 of the last 22 years we have been in the lottery, there have been 14x3 = 42 lotto draws that we were in on, we have won zero of them.
On the other hand, we seem to win every coin toss we get into in recent memory (e.g. coin toss to determine who gets #7 in a #7/#8 tie).
I think right now it's probably safe to bet we will pick either 7th, 8th, or 9th. There seems to be little chance of us finishing better than the 7 slot or worse than the 8 slot in the lottery, and from that position, the odds of moving down below 9th are minuscule while the odds of moving up into the top-three are between about 10-15%. Count on 7/8/9 - the Aaron Gordon sweet spot.
As a matter of fact, the lottery system was changed to the "ball" system in 1990 (although the odds were updated significantly in 1994). In 1991, the Kings had the third-best odds at the #1 spot and had their lotto combo selected at #3 - we didn't move up but we didn't fall down. That was the only time in franchise history our lotto combo has been selected. 14 of the last 22 years we have been in the lottery, there have been 14x3 = 42 lotto draws that we were in on, we have won zero of them.
On the other hand, we seem to win every coin toss we get into in recent memory (e.g. coin toss to determine who gets #7 in a #7/#8 tie).
I think right now it's probably safe to bet we will pick either 7th, 8th, or 9th. There seems to be little chance of us finishing better than the 7 slot or worse than the 8 slot in the lottery, and from that position, the odds of moving down below 9th are minuscule while the odds of moving up into the top-three are between about 10-15%. Count on 7/8/9 - the Aaron Gordon sweet spot.
I sincerly hope your not in love with Gordon based on that one play where he was on the floor. Look, he's a hustle player, and I admire what he brings to the game, but the dude can't shoot, and we seem to have enough players on our team that can't shoot. I realize that we need to improve defensively, but at some point, you still have to put the ball in the basket it you intend to win. Right now, Gordon is a luxury we can't afford. If there was some indication he just needed a tune up, then I might be on board, but his freethrow shooting is terrible as well. He appears to have no feel or touch, and that usually proves to be chronic. Not always, but most of the time.
If were picking in the 7th or 8th spot, then I'm looking at Cauley-Stein, Nik Stauskas, Gary Harris, Clint Capela or Doug McDermott. That's assuming that Noah Vonleh is already gone. If somehow we end up with Gordon, I sincerley hope everything I just posted is dead wrong.
If were picking in the 7th or 8th spot, then I'm looking at Cauley-Stein, Nik Stauskas, Gary Harris, Clint Capela or Doug McDermott. That's assuming that Noah Vonleh is already gone. If somehow we end up with Gordon, I sincerley hope everything I just posted is dead wrong.
Actually, I thought Randle played pretty well, except for the one area that he's excelled at all year long, and that's rebouding. But he scored well and and was efficient doing it. Contrary to accepted belief, I think Randle has improved as the year has gone along, despite some of his numbers going down. He got off to a tremendous start, but as he moved into his conference schedule, and teams started planning their defenses around stopping him, he had to make adjustments. As a result, his scoring has gone down a little, but his efficiency has gone up. He now passes out of double teams instead of forcing up highly contested shots. His defense around the basket, and in defending the pick and roll has improved dramatically. I'm not saying he's looking like the number one pick in the draft again, but I do think he's going to be a better NBA player, where he won't be the center of attention, and where you can't camp out under the basket like you can in college.
That's one of the reasons I knew that Thabeet was going to be a bust. His whole game was shotblocking on defense and dunks on offense. He had no game, and I mean no game at all away from the basket on either defense or offense. He had the lateral quickness of an elephant when defending the pick and roll. Once in the NBA his weaknesses were immediately exposed. Randle's biggest hurdle now, is going to be his measurements. If he's at least 6'9", then I think his stock will remain in the top five. But if he's 6'7/6'8, along with his average wingspan, I think he'll slide a little, and could even be there when we pick. I think Gordon falls into that same catagory. If he's actually 6'9" his stock will go up a bit. There aren't a lot of successful PF's in the NBA that are under 6'9" with short arms.
That's one of the reasons I knew that Thabeet was going to be a bust. His whole game was shotblocking on defense and dunks on offense. He had no game, and I mean no game at all away from the basket on either defense or offense. He had the lateral quickness of an elephant when defending the pick and roll. Once in the NBA his weaknesses were immediately exposed. Randle's biggest hurdle now, is going to be his measurements. If he's at least 6'9", then I think his stock will remain in the top five. But if he's 6'7/6'8, along with his average wingspan, I think he'll slide a little, and could even be there when we pick. I think Gordon falls into that same catagory. If he's actually 6'9" his stock will go up a bit. There aren't a lot of successful PF's in the NBA that are under 6'9" with short arms.
I wouldn't say I'm in love with Gordon at all. I'm just saying that everything seems to point towards Gordon. His draft stock is right about where we're expecting to pick, we've been scouting him pretty heavily (not just low-level scouts but PDA and Mullin), he has performed well at games we've scouted him, and he brings perimeter defense that we desperately need. I'm just saying that everything points to Gordon in my eyes.
I agree his shot is broken, broken, broken. He's not ideal - but then again, few players available past the top-5 are ideal. At this point, though, I don't want anybody to think I'm jocking for (or against) Gordon. I just think he's a likely target.
Harris I like quite a bit, but I think he presents a big challenge for the Kings - if we draft Harris, we effectively pull the plug on golden boy McLemore, and I just don't see the front office doing that. Stauskas I'm not so high on, and McDermott scares me because I doubt he can play a lick of defense at the NBA level. I honestly know next to nothing about Capela and can't offer an opinion. Cauley-Stein is an intriguing fit, to be sure, but his stock may be low enough at this point that if he's truly the piece our front office thinks is best, it might be worth trying to trade down to get him. As of right now, Phoenix has their own pick at #14 and Washington's at #17. Washington's pick is going to stay about where it is, but if Phoenix sneaks into the playoffs their #14 will drop into the #19-21 range. But if Phoenix falls out of the playoff race, a #7/8ish pick in exchange for a #14 and a #17 might well be a worthwhile investment, specially if Cauley-Stein is the ultimate target.
I agree his shot is broken, broken, broken. He's not ideal - but then again, few players available past the top-5 are ideal. At this point, though, I don't want anybody to think I'm jocking for (or against) Gordon. I just think he's a likely target.
Harris I like quite a bit, but I think he presents a big challenge for the Kings - if we draft Harris, we effectively pull the plug on golden boy McLemore, and I just don't see the front office doing that. Stauskas I'm not so high on, and McDermott scares me because I doubt he can play a lick of defense at the NBA level. I honestly know next to nothing about Capela and can't offer an opinion. Cauley-Stein is an intriguing fit, to be sure, but his stock may be low enough at this point that if he's truly the piece our front office thinks is best, it might be worth trying to trade down to get him. As of right now, Phoenix has their own pick at #14 and Washington's at #17. Washington's pick is going to stay about where it is, but if Phoenix sneaks into the playoffs their #14 will drop into the #19-21 range. But if Phoenix falls out of the playoff race, a #7/8ish pick in exchange for a #14 and a #17 might well be a worthwhile investment, specially if Cauley-Stein is the ultimate target.
OK, gotcha on Gordon. I agree on most of the rest of your post except Stauskas. In my opinion he's a better overall player than Harris, who I do like. When you add in that I have serious doubts about Harris being a legit 6'4" and I don't have any about Stauskas being 6'6", that becomes the deciding factor for me. Where I give Harris the edge is on the defensive side of the ball. Stauskas is an entirely different player this year. He has decent to good handles, is a terrific shooter, and is an outstanding passer. He can score from long range, mid range, and at the basket. As for as either Stauskas or Harris ending McLemore's reign with the Kings, I don't see why. They might take his starting job, or his minutes, but at the moment, he's the only SG we have on the team. But hey, if you can trade him for something else we need, then fine, I'm on board.
Obviously I'm a big Cauley-Stein fan, and while he will never be a good offensive player, I think he can be adequate enough to not be a liability. I Can't totally agree or disagree with you on McDermott. I simply don't know how good or bad he'll be on the defensive side of the ball. It was easy with Fredette because he didn't play a lick of defense at BYU. But McDermott does play defense and he's fairly scrappy at it. However, that doesn't mean he'll be even decent at the NBA level. Like McCallum he's a coaches son, and his BBIQ is off the charts, and that goes a long way toward making a player a good team defender. Bottom line is, I just don't know. The dude can shoot the rock though.
Obviously I'm a big Cauley-Stein fan, and while he will never be a good offensive player, I think he can be adequate enough to not be a liability. I Can't totally agree or disagree with you on McDermott. I simply don't know how good or bad he'll be on the defensive side of the ball. It was easy with Fredette because he didn't play a lick of defense at BYU. But McDermott does play defense and he's fairly scrappy at it. However, that doesn't mean he'll be even decent at the NBA level. Like McCallum he's a coaches son, and his BBIQ is off the charts, and that goes a long way toward making a player a good team defender. Bottom line is, I just don't know. The dude can shoot the rock though.
Boston, Utah, and LA went into tanking overdrive the last two months of the season. All 3 of those teams were better than us most of the season and suddenly they can't buy a win? I'm sick of seeing teams blatantly throwing games down the stretch and getting rewarded with top 3 picks. Boston and LA should not be allowed to pick before us. They both have won championships recently and they're just milking injuries and benching perfectly healthy players to cheat their way to a better pick. We're right back where we were last year only without Tyreke Evans. What a huge waste of a season.
Not really.
It looks like we've finally installed a defensive system that works for the first time in a decade. We've picked up several useful pieces and an actual number two guy to Demarcus. Our front office isn't looking to sell our assets to the first guy offering more than a bag of Cheetos. Demarcus has continued his development into the premier big man in the NBA. While they haven't exactly blown anyone out of the water recently, our rookies are showing that they are at least capable of fitting into a rotation. More importantly, we've managed to unload a lot of the damage of the last several years of the Maloof regime whilst developing parts of a system that can be successful in the NBA.
To call this season a waste is to completely ignore where we were at this point last season. I mean, for the love of god, we were pining for Thomas Robinson. And Seattle was trying to steal our team. And Keith Smart was our coach.
I understand that the year has been less than perfect but to say that we're back where we started is wrong. Last year, we started the race but then ran two miles backwards away from the finish line. This season, we've corrected course and are now several miles into the actual race. Albeit we're running a marathon but at the very least we're finally heading in the right direction.
It looks like we've finally installed a defensive system that works for the first time in a decade. We've picked up several useful pieces and an actual number two guy to Demarcus. Our front office isn't looking to sell our assets to the first guy offering more than a bag of Cheetos. Demarcus has continued his development into the premier big man in the NBA. While they haven't exactly blown anyone out of the water recently, our rookies are showing that they are at least capable of fitting into a rotation. More importantly, we've managed to unload a lot of the damage of the last several years of the Maloof regime whilst developing parts of a system that can be successful in the NBA.
To call this season a waste is to completely ignore where we were at this point last season. I mean, for the love of god, we were pining for Thomas Robinson. And Seattle was trying to steal our team. And Keith Smart was our coach.
I understand that the year has been less than perfect but to say that we're back where we started is wrong. Last year, we started the race but then ran two miles backwards away from the finish line. This season, we've corrected course and are now several miles into the actual race. Albeit we're running a marathon but at the very least we're finally heading in the right direction.
Well obviously I wasn't talking about where we were pre-Vivek. All of that off the court stuff is great, you'll get no argument from me, but a decision was made by our current front office to go a certain direction last off-season and it was a decision that a lot of us were very critical of. A lot of individual players have been shuffled around, but has the "suck now to be better down the road" plan actually produced any tangible results? Did it produce a top 5 pick in a loaded draft? Probably not. Other teams were even more pathetic. Did we win more games? We're on pace to finish with the same 28 wins as last season. Do we have more long-term assets? Our two draft picks show some promise, DWill occasionally looks like he might be a player when he's not riding the bench but we haven't played him enough to be sure. Thomas is a free agent and Rudy Gay has either one year left or no years left depending on what decision he makes in a couple months. Do we have more cap space? No, less in fact. I liked the Mike Malone hire but that's not what I'm talking about here. We already had him in place before any of these roster decisions were made, before the draft actually.
Like I said last summer, it's not that I expect miracles over night. Which direction we're headed in is exactly what I'm worried about. The defenses hasn't gotten better. We're dead last in assist to turnover ratio. Individually Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gay are posting career numbers but they're not helping us win very many games and they're both on the precipice of being very expensive long-term commitments. If we had a do-over on every personnel decision made last year we'd still have Malone and Cousins so I'm not implying that their development this year wasn't worthwhile. I'm just saying that the "be patient" mantra espoused by this inexperienced front office's staunchest supporters smelled then and continues to smell like a smoke screen. I'll be patient when I see evidence of a plan to get us from the deep recesses of playoff irrelevance to a respectable win percentage and a place in the championship conversation. Hoping year after year for lottery balls to bail us out is not a plan, it's a joke.
Like I said last summer, it's not that I expect miracles over night. Which direction we're headed in is exactly what I'm worried about. The defenses hasn't gotten better. We're dead last in assist to turnover ratio. Individually Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gay are posting career numbers but they're not helping us win very many games and they're both on the precipice of being very expensive long-term commitments. If we had a do-over on every personnel decision made last year we'd still have Malone and Cousins so I'm not implying that their development this year wasn't worthwhile. I'm just saying that the "be patient" mantra espoused by this inexperienced front office's staunchest supporters smelled then and continues to smell like a smoke screen. I'll be patient when I see evidence of a plan to get us from the deep recesses of playoff irrelevance to a respectable win percentage and a place in the championship conversation. Hoping year after year for lottery balls to bail us out is not a plan, it's a joke.
Capt. Factorial's Rule:
N(i) = P(t) - 1
where N(i) is the number of impact players one sees in any given draft and P(t) is the position in which one's favorite team is drafting. Please note that this rule applies to any team's draft position, such that a fan of the team picking fourth finds three impact players and a fan of the team picking eighth finds seven impact players in the same draft.
N(i) = P(t) - 1
where N(i) is the number of impact players one sees in any given draft and P(t) is the position in which one's favorite team is drafting. Please note that this rule applies to any team's draft position, such that a fan of the team picking fourth finds three impact players and a fan of the team picking eighth finds seven impact players in the same draft.
I have a "feeling" we'll end up with Gordon. Seems they scouted him a lot and he fits into the "positionless" vision of basketball that Vivek has. I'm not sure it's a good thing. I really amn't sure how I feel about Gordon. Some things to really like, some things that really worry you. I'm certain that there'll be other guys I'd take over him when we pick.
We are in a battle for 6-8 with LAL and DET.
DET 28-49 Last 5 (1-4, maybe 2-5)
LAL 25-52 Last 5 (at best 1-4)
SAC 27-50 Last 5 (anywhere from 0-5 to 2-3)
I don't think we are "catching" the Lakers, especially since we just beat them. So basically we are hoping DET wins at least 2 games which puts us in a very familiar 7th for the lottery drawing.
DET 28-49 Last 5 (1-4, maybe 2-5)
LAL 25-52 Last 5 (at best 1-4)
SAC 27-50 Last 5 (anywhere from 0-5 to 2-3)
I don't think we are "catching" the Lakers, especially since we just beat them. So basically we are hoping DET wins at least 2 games which puts us in a very familiar 7th for the lottery drawing.
