McLemore, what are your expectations?

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#1
I thought I'd ask, because I'm sure every one of you has his own expectations of McLemore. It appears that the Kings expectations are pretty high. At least in the long term. But how about the short term? What do you expect him to accomplish this season as a 19 year old after one year of college? And are your expectations fair? So before you answer, I thought I'd give you some food for thought. I won't belabor you with his pluses and minuses. We all know what they are. I thought I'd give you some comparisons instead. He's most often compared to Ray Allen, and I'm sure some of you scoff at that. And perhaps your right! Its probably unfair to him! But just for the heck of it, lets look at Allen's first year in the NBA.

Ran Allen: 21 years old, 30.8 MPG, 13.4 PPG, 43.0% FGP, 39.3% 3PP, 4.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.8 TO's, 0.9 SPG.

Hmmm! Doesn't blow my socks off! Very reasonable numbers to match! Would you be happy with those numbers for McLemore, considering that Allen was 21 years old and McLemore is 19 with much less college experience?

How about Kobe Bryant? Lets look at Kobe's first two years since he was 18 when he was drafted.

Kobe Bryant: 18 years old, 15.5 MPG, 7.6 PPG, 41.7% FGP, 37.5% 3PP, 1.9 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.5 TO's, 0.6 SPG
19 years old, 26.0 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 42.8% FGP, 34.1% 3PP, 3.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 TO's, 0.9 SPG

Once again, numbers that McLemore can probably match. Would that be acceptable? How about someone more recent like James Harden.

James Harden: 19 years old, 22.8 MPG, 9.9 PPG, 40.3% FGP, 37.5% 3PP, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.3 TO's, 1.0 SPG

Hell, I'll eat the phone book if he can't match those numbers! Lets go with someone that was also a great athlete coming out of college. Dwyane Wade.

Dwyane Wade: 22 years old, 34.8 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 46.5% FGP, 30.2% 3PP, 4.0 RPG, 4.5 APG, 3.2 TO's, 1.4 SPG.

Now except for the poor 3PP stat, those are very good numbers for a first year in the NBA. Of course I do think we have to take into consideration, that Wade had 4 years of college and was 22 years old. I would think that if McLemore could match some of those numbers, such as PPG, and perhaps rebounds, and shoot a higher 3PP, everyone would be estactic. No?

I could show you others. Steve Nash was downright terrible his first year, and Nowitzki was almost run out of town. There are the exceptions of course, like Lebron and Durant, both of whom were 19 years old, and played 35 or more minutes a game, and put up 20 PPG. Of course both Durant and Lebron shot very poorly from beyond the arc, with neither of them breaking the 30% barrier. My point is, that there's perception and there's reality. Very few players come out of college and become instant stars. For most it takes a couple of years, and in some cases, like Nash, it took 4 years. The team your on, the coaching staff, and the players your surrounded by, all make a difference.

So I'm interested in your opinions. Personally, if he can play 24 MPG, and put up 14 PPG, while shooting close to 45% overall and 37 % from the three, while grabbing 4 boards a game, I'll say he's had a successful rookie year. What do you think?
 
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#2
What it all comes down to is ball handling. I liked to compare him to Ray Allen coming out of college but Ray was pretty good at handling the ball.
 
#3
Baja - Not to criticize most of your excellent analysis but Ben McLemore is 20 years of age. Born 02/11/93. Thus, he'll turn 21 about mid-way into rookie season. But still, with only one year of college under his belt Kings fans will be looking at very inexperienced NBA player to start off.

And I agree if he can match or come close to Allen's rookie numbers I'd be a happy camper.
 
#4
I expect McLemore to start off coming off of the bench, and by the end of April, he should have a starting role. I think he'll average 13-15 points a game, 4 boards, on 48% 2PT and 40% 3PT with about 25 minutes a game.
 
#5
I thought I'd ask, because I'm sure every one of you has his own expectations of McLemore. It appears that the Kings expectations are pretty high. At least in the long term. But how about the short term? What do you expect him to accomplish this season as a 19 year old after one year of college? And are your expectations fair? So before you answer, I thought I'd give you some food for thought. I won't belabor you with his pluses and minuses. We all know what they are. I thought I'd give you some comparisons instead. He's most often compared to Ray Allen, and I'm sure some of you scoff at that. And perhaps your right! Its probably unfair to him! But just for the heck of it, lets look at Allen's first year in the NBA.

Ran Allen: 21 years old, 30.8 MPG, 13.4 PPG, 43.0% FGP, 39.3% 3PP, 4.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.8 TO's, 0.9 SPG.

Hmmm! Doesn't blow my socks off! Very reasonable numbers to match! Would you be happy with those numbers for McLemore, considering that Allen was 21 years old and McLemore is 19 with much less college experience?

How about Kobe Bryant? Lets look at Kobe's first two years since he was 18 when he was drafted.

Kobe Bryant: 18 years old, 15.5 MPG, 7.6 PPG, 41.7% FGP, 37.5% 3PP, 1.9 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.5 TO's, 0.6 SPG
19 years old, 26.0 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 42.8% FGP, 34.1% 3PP, 3.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 TO's, 0.9 SPG

Once again, numbers that McLemore can probably match. Would that be acceptable? How about someone more recent like James Harden.

James Harden: 19 years old, 22.8 MPG, 9.9 PPG, 40.3% FGP, 37.5% 3PP, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.3 TO's, 1.0 SPG

Hell, I'll eat the phone book if he can't match those numbers! Lets go with someone that was also a great athlete coming out of college. Dwyane Wade.

Dwyane Wade: 22 years old, 34.8 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 46.5% FGP, 30.2% 3PP, 4.0 RPG, 4.5 APG, 3.2 TO's, 1.4 SPG.

Now except for the poor 3PP stat, those are very good numbers for a first year in the NBA. Of course I do think we have to take into consideration, that Wade had 4 years of college and was 22 years old. I would think that if McLemore could match some of those numbers, such as PPG, and perhaps rebounds, and shoot a higher 3PP, everyone would be estactic. No?

I could show you others. Steve Nash was downright terrible his first year, and Nowitzki was almost run out of town. There are the exceptions of course, like Lebron and Durant, both of whom were 19 years old, and played 35 or more minutes a game, and put up 20 PPG. Of course both Durant and Lebron shot very poorly from beyond the arc, with neither of them breaking the 30% barrier. My point is, that there's perception and there's reality. Very few players come out of college and become instant stars. For most it takes a couple of years, and in some cases, like Nash, it took 4 years. The team your on, the coaching staff, and the players your surrounded by, all make a difference.

So I'm interested in your opinions. Personally, if he can play 24 MPG, and put up 14 PPG, while shooting close to 45% overall and 37 % from the three, while grabbing 4 boards a game, I'll say he's had a successful rookie year. What do you think?
Those are ambitious numbers compared to what I saw from him in the summer league. Thornton, Vasquez, Thomas are going to get significant run and Ben has a lot to work on.
 

Spike

Subsidiary Intermediary
Staff member
#6
Baja, this is a tough question. I don't think it can be about numbers. Kobe and Nowitzki looked terrible year 1, but we recently had a kid on our team that was NBA ready at a young age. I won't go there, because it's a different skill set, and one that is really more dependent upon others. That said, shooters need to shoot. Will he hit the open shot? Will he disappear after a few bricks, or will he grind? I expect some bad shooting nights early on, and he'll likely hit the rookie wall, but I'm hoping for bounce back and consistency towards the end of the year. That, I feel, can be kept accountable. My worry here is that the FO doesn't see him as much of a project as I do, and that will add pressure. He has to be up to it.
 
#7
I'm just hoping to see him acclimate well to whatever system Malone implements. I hope he has a FG% around 42-45, 3pt% 36+ and looks like he understands his role with the team. I don't want him looking lost or out of control. I want to see him take strides in his ball handling and shot selection.
 
#8
I'm just hoping to see him acclimate well to whatever system Malone implements. I hope he has a FG% around 42-45, 3pt% 36+ and looks like he understands his role with the team. I don't want him looking lost or out of control. I want to see him take strides in his ball handling and shot selection.

I anticipate Ben will be very inconsistent his rookie season, like he was in summer league but not as bad since he will be in a more controlled setting during the regular season with a real NBA squad. Ben also grew up in rough background and doesn't have a lot of people supporting him like Tyreke and his brothers. Hopefully Kings will surround him with a good support system since we have a lot invested in him.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#9
Baja - Not to criticize most of your excellent analysis but Ben McLemore is 20 years of age. Born 02/11/93. Thus, he'll turn 21 about mid-way into rookie season. But still, with only one year of college under his belt Kings fans will be looking at very inexperienced NBA player to start off.

And I agree if he can match or come close to Allen's rookie numbers I'd be a happy camper.
Arrrrgh! Your right. You know I told myself to go and check his age. I forgot that he sat out a year. Regardless, its the amount of experience that really counts, and he only had one year of college as compared to some of the others like Wade and Allen.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#10
Baja, this is a tough question. I don't think it can be about numbers. Kobe and Nowitzki looked terrible year 1, but we recently had a kid on our team that was NBA ready at a young age. I won't go there, because it's a different skill set, and one that is really more dependent upon others. That said, shooters need to shoot. Will he hit the open shot? Will he disappear after a few bricks, or will he grind? I expect some bad shooting nights early on, and he'll likely hit the rookie wall, but I'm hoping for bounce back and consistency towards the end of the year. That, I feel, can be kept accountable. My worry here is that the FO doesn't see him as much of a project as I do, and that will add pressure. He has to be up to it.
Judging from comments by Malone, D'Allesandro, and Jent, I'm pretty sure they know McLemore's deficiencies. I do think they'll push him pretty hard. From everything I heard in summer league about Malone's practices, is that their very intense, and no nonsense. I'm sure there will be stumbles along the way, But I doubt Malone lives in La La land when it comes to judging abilities.
 
#11
I expect good solid defense, an upward trajectory in efficiency, and learning his role rather quickly. I could care less about numbers in a persons rookie season. However, for the purpose of this thread:
Starting- 12PPG, 4 RPG, 1APG, 3TO's, 2SPG.
Reserve- 9PPG, 2RPG, 1APG, 2TO's, 0.5SPG
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
#12
I expect somewhere around 40% the 1st year. If he gets to 45%, then he will be in the running for rookie of the year. I expect some struggles and then some great games mixed in there too.
 
#15
I thought I'd ask, because I'm sure every one of you has his own expectations of McLemore. It appears that the Kings expectations are pretty high. At least in the long term. But how about the short term? What do you expect him to accomplish this season as a 19 year old after one year of college? And are your expectations fair? So before you answer, I thought I'd give you some food for thought. I won't belabor you with his pluses and minuses. We all know what they are. I thought I'd give you some comparisons instead. He's most often compared to Ray Allen, and I'm sure some of you scoff at that. And perhaps your right! Its probably unfair to him! But just for the heck of it, lets look at Allen's first year in the NBA.

Ran Allen: 21 years old, 30.8 MPG, 13.4 PPG, 43.0% FGP, 39.3% 3PP, 4.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.8 TO's, 0.9 SPG.

Hmmm! Doesn't blow my socks off! Very reasonable numbers to match! Would you be happy with those numbers for McLemore, considering that Allen was 21 years old and McLemore is 19 with much less college experience?

How about Kobe Bryant? Lets look at Kobe's first two years since he was 18 when he was drafted.

Kobe Bryant: 18 years old, 15.5 MPG, 7.6 PPG, 41.7% FGP, 37.5% 3PP, 1.9 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.5 TO's, 0.6 SPG
19 years old, 26.0 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 42.8% FGP, 34.1% 3PP, 3.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 TO's, 0.9 SPG

Once again, numbers that McLemore can probably match. Would that be acceptable? How about someone more recent like James Harden.

James Harden: 19 years old, 22.8 MPG, 9.9 PPG, 40.3% FGP, 37.5% 3PP, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.3 TO's, 1.0 SPG

Hell, I'll eat the phone book if he can't match those numbers! Lets go with someone that was also a great athlete coming out of college. Dwyane Wade.

Dwyane Wade: 22 years old, 34.8 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 46.5% FGP, 30.2% 3PP, 4.0 RPG, 4.5 APG, 3.2 TO's, 1.4 SPG.

Now except for the poor 3PP stat, those are very good numbers for a first year in the NBA. Of course I do think we have to take into consideration, that Wade had 4 years of college and was 22 years old. I would think that if McLemore could match some of those numbers, such as PPG, and perhaps rebounds, and shoot a higher 3PP, everyone would be estactic. No?

I could show you others. Steve Nash was downright terrible his first year, and Nowitzki was almost run out of town. There are the exceptions of course, like Lebron and Durant, both of whom were 19 years old, and played 35 or more minutes a game, and put up 20 PPG. Of course both Durant and Lebron shot very poorly from beyond the arc, with neither of them breaking the 30% barrier. My point is, that there's perception and there's reality. Very few players come out of college and become instant stars. For most it takes a couple of years, and in some cases, like Nash, it took 4 years. The team your on, the coaching staff, and the players your surrounded by, all make a difference.

So I'm interested in your opinions. Personally, if he can play 24 MPG, and put up 14 PPG, while shooting close to 45% overall and 37 % from the three, while grabbing 4 boards a game, I'll say he's had a successful rookie year. What do you think?
For me, it's not so much about the numbers as much as it is about his personality. Right now, I am looking for good character guys who have a great locker room presence night in and night out. Guys who will put their bodies on the line by going for loose balls during practice. Guys who won't be scared to jump in there to wrestle for the ball, hopefully winning the battle and getting possession, but a jump ball will certainly be fine with me.

I am looking for someone to come in and make sure the change in culture that we are seeing with this team spills out onto the hardwood each and every single night.

I am not looking for a 30 point scorer every night. I am not looking for a triple double, or even a double double guy every night. I am looking for some solid stats across the board. I will be happy with a 10 pt, 1 assist, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 0 block, 0, 5 turnovers, 6 personal fouls kind of a guy, as long as those 5 turnovers and 6 personal fouls are committed while putting forth the effort. It's one thing to turn the ball over by simply passing the ball to some random Joe in the crowd. It's one thing to swipe at a defender while he is driving to the basket for a layup. It's another thing when you get your hands dirty. When you throw your body to the ground. When you fight for possession.

THAT is who I am looking for.
 
#16
i see him averaging 12-3 and 3. spark 3 point shooter. needs to improve on ball handling, getting bigger and creating his own shot. i dont see rookie of the year if thats what someone mite be indicating. one could hope though
 
#17
I expect a Reggie Miller that can finish at the rim.
Agreed, and he averaged 10 in 22min. Say the team trades MT mideseason, and then he finishes with Ray Allen numbers, 13+ in 30.

So about 12 pts in 27 min a game, with good efficiency and below average (but with flashes of very good) defense.
 
#18
Even though I am very high on the young man, and believe that HE DOES have a skill set to be a longtime starter in the league, my expectations for 2013-14 is measured at best. If Ben McLemore is averaging 30 min a game like Ray Allen did in his rookie season, the Kings are not going to be very good. Milwaukee won 33 games in Ray Allen's rookie season and started 81 of 82 games.

In my opinion, McLemore should not start one single game this season, except the games Thornton is to injured. I would like to see the Kings organization take the same approach with this #16 as they did with the other #16.

Peja Stojakovic

YEAR 1
Age - 21
Games Started - 1
Minutes - 21.4
FG% - 37.8
3P% - 32
FT% - 85
Pts - 8.4
Reb - 1.5
Ast - 0.9


YEAR 2
Age - 22
Games Started - 11
Minutes - 23.6
FG% - 44.8
3pt % - 37.5
FT% - 88.2
Pts - 11.9
Reb - 2.1
Ast - 1.4


YEAR 3
Age - 23
Games Started - 75
Minutes- 38.7
FG% - 47%
3pt% - 40%
FT% - 85.6
Pts - 20.4
Reb - 5.8
Ast - 2.2


To me that is solid progress for "a shooter". I understand that Peja played on a playoff caliber team; but in my view Stojakovic had a very solid career and it took him until Year 3 to become an impact player. I would like to see the same "type" progress from Ben Mc.
 
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#20
Props on the thread Baja and to answer the question I don't expect him to challenge either MT or Jimmer early but his athleticism and quick release could make make for a sensational player down the road
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#21
So I'm interested in your opinions. Personally, if he can play 24 MPG, and put up 14 PPG, while shooting close to 45% overall and 37 % from the three, while grabbing 4 boards a game, I'll say he's had a successful rookie year. What do you think?
:eek:

uh...yeah. He would be a HOFer. That's 21ppg on 45% shooting in 36 min per. That's a better rookie pace than Reke, Curry, Rose, Wall, Mayo, Lillard, Melo, Durant or LeBron. And its clearly not happening. With his skillset if he can just get into double figures it will be good. And there is a huge additional problem nobody is talking about: he and Thornton can't play together. They are both 6'4" pure SGs. Too small for SF, with no handles or instincts for PG. So that means they are going to be almost a straight platoon at SG splitting 48min between them. And if as people say we now intentionally put ourselves in the position to rely on Thornton as our #2 option, he's going to get big minutes. Its not impossible Mac could be looking at 16-18 min a night.
 
#22
Props on the thread Baja and to answer the question I don't expect him to challenge either MT or Jimmer early but his athleticism and quick release could make make for a sensational player down the road
Jimmer? i think McLemore and McCallum are both higher on the depth chart than Jimmer now
 
#24
15 to 20 minutes per game. Around 8 points. Hopefully 82 games and a reasonable level of on court competence.

Martell Webster rookie season- 17 minutes 6.6 points.

Bradley Beal (last years next Ray Allen) 31 minutes 13.9 points.
 
#25
only problem is reggie miller prolly has more confidence in his pinky than mclemore has in his whole body when things are going bad..
Reggie didn't start out that way though. If I remember right, his rookie campaign started relatively rough, and evened out toward the end. The Pacers were pretty bad that year and Reggie was the 2nd option after Chuck Person. Reggie also played four years at UCLA, and had NIT championship experience (back when that wasn't just a consolation prize).

If McLemore can shoot 37.5% from three, play tough man defense, and learn good shot selection this year I will consider it a successful year. Post all-star break is when I will start counting on his offensive development. If he can make 42% of his takes post all-star, He will be on track offensively. Defensively, he is already an upgrade over Thornton, so smart offense is what will give him the inside track at the starting job.
 
#26
i expect ben mclemore will contribute sporadically throughout his rookie season. his shot will come and go against nba defenses, and his ability to stay on the floor will be determined by the hustle: is he collecting rebounds? is he competing on the defensive end? is he executing on the break? he's got the physical gifts to accomplish those things. that said, he'll likely be a rotation player of inconsistent quality, but hopefully the kings will bring him along slowly. his lack of a handle and inability to create for himself will become rather large burdens for him in year one. building his confidence needs to be the priority, which is why i fully expect he'll be coming off the bench...
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#27
I am gonna say 10.3 pts 3.6 reb .08 ast 16 min a game shooting 38% Fg 30% 3pt 78% FT
Bonzi Wells-esque rebounding numbers for a SG. Would be rad, but I dont think our 6' 5 rookie is going to average almost 8 boards per 32. Would love to eat crow on this one though, rebounding could definitely be a strong area for McLemore.



Anyways.... I believe Ben's #'s will fall somewhere between rookie Jimmer and rookie Tyreke. Probably more towards the Jimmer end of the spectrum.
 

HndsmCelt

Hall of Famer
#28
i expect that a group of posters will rave about him all season long demanding more min, making excuses for every failure and demanding the team "Build around him because he is our future" I expect that another group of posters will bag on him no matter what, constantly "what ifing" over the pick they thought the team should take. And if McLemore walks on water they will call him too lazy to swim.
 
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#29
Reggie didn't start out that way though. If I remember right, his rookie campaign started relatively rough, and evened out toward the end. The Pacers were pretty bad that year and Reggie was the 2nd option after Chuck Person. Reggie also played four years at UCLA, and had NIT championship experience (back when that wasn't just a consolation prize).

If McLemore can shoot 37.5% from three, play tough man defense, and learn good shot selection this year I will consider it a successful year. Post all-star break is when I will start counting on his offensive development. If he can make 42% of his takes post all-star, He will be on track offensively. Defensively, he is already an upgrade over Thornton, so smart offense is what will give him the inside track at the starting job.
I like this. I don't expect McLemore to play more than 20 MPG next year so his counting stats don't mean much to me. What I would like to see is 1. 57+ TS% 2. Quality defense. If he can provide those 2 things next season, I'll be a happy camper