Willie Cauley-Stein: the 2018-19 Season watch
- Thread starter Ozymandias
- Start date
I agree with many of you about us needing to rebound better. But Willie is and will be an opportunistic rebounder. He rebounds when it’s convenient and rarely takes the ball from another guy going for the rebound. So some games he’ll get 5 boards and some he’ll get 12. As much as Willie contributes to our style of play, I’m not sure that he’s the best choice for starting center, and certainly not for locking him in for $20M a year. He’s a good fit in some ways, but a poor fit in other ways. If Giles and Bagley continue to develop, and Beli continues to look like a great stretch 4, then I think I’d rather see (this season) if those three can anchor the 4 & 5 without Rim Running Willie.
Everybody seems upset with Willie for his lack of shotblocking ability because they take for granted that he is an incredible athlete.
I'd like to put a flat on that : his vertical quickness doesn't match his horizontal speed.
I mean that he is one of the fastest seven footer I ever seen but, in my opinion, he severely lacks jumping quickness on standing vertical leap.
He has hops but he is not an explosive leaper like Bagley who is elite in that category and who reaches his maximal leap in a tenth of a second.
Most of his blocks come when he is running/recovering but very few are when he is standing next to the basket.
He is also terrible at jump-balls for the same reason.
That being said, I'm way more concerned with his lack of rebounding ability than his shotblocking.
I'm satisfied with his overall defensive contribution.
I'd like to put a flat on that : his vertical quickness doesn't match his horizontal speed.
I mean that he is one of the fastest seven footer I ever seen but, in my opinion, he severely lacks jumping quickness on standing vertical leap.
He has hops but he is not an explosive leaper like Bagley who is elite in that category and who reaches his maximal leap in a tenth of a second.
Most of his blocks come when he is running/recovering but very few are when he is standing next to the basket.
He is also terrible at jump-balls for the same reason.
That being said, I'm way more concerned with his lack of rebounding ability than his shotblocking.
I'm satisfied with his overall defensive contribution.
Willie 4 boards
Bagley 17 boards
Willie 3 for 9 (fg)
Bagley 7 for 15
Willie foul trouble all night
Bagley one foul in 33 mins.
I remeber when willie wasnt a liability at the line. Those days are gone. Here are the days of complimenting other team's players mid-game and not being able to stay in a game, and getting outplayed by looney and jones.
Looney and jones ladies and gentlemen.
Bagley 17 boards
Willie 3 for 9 (fg)
Bagley 7 for 15
Willie foul trouble all night
Bagley one foul in 33 mins.
I remeber when willie wasnt a liability at the line. Those days are gone. Here are the days of complimenting other team's players mid-game and not being able to stay in a game, and getting outplayed by looney and jones.
Looney and jones ladies and gentlemen.
A leopard doesn't change it's spots.
Willie is who he is and this same pattern keeps popping up the last few years.
He'll have a good stretch of a week or two where he looks like a budding star and a guy that can be a starting center on a good team for years to come. When he does that the same people will come on here prop him up saying that he's turned the corner, he's everything the team needs, and the Kings need to pay him.
Like clockwork he'll then go into a rut and have a stretch of bad games where he just gets abused in the paint and floats around in the games with his head in the clouds not doing much of anything. This time a different group of people (myself included) will come to threads like this one saying he's soft, lazy, inconsistent, etc. and that the Kings should trade him.
The reality is probably somewhere inbetween. However the fact that people are so divided on Willie and that we are continually having these debates should be a red flag in itself. Should the Kings really pay $15 Million Plus to a guy this up and down?
He's consistently inconsistent. He has improved his game but he's never going to be consistent or reach his full potential (especially defensively). He is a tremendous athlete with a sub-par motor and over-inflated self image. He's aloof, just a "different" guy. In general it's tough to count on guys like that from game to game (although there are exceptions like Dennis Rodman).
Bottom line is I would trade him now while he has good value. The Kings need to see if they can get a SF or a mid first round pick from him. Paying Willie $15+ Million a year may not kill you now but it would kill the Kings in two or three years when it comes time to start paying Fox, Buddy, Bagley, Bogi.
Willie is who he is and this same pattern keeps popping up the last few years.
He'll have a good stretch of a week or two where he looks like a budding star and a guy that can be a starting center on a good team for years to come. When he does that the same people will come on here prop him up saying that he's turned the corner, he's everything the team needs, and the Kings need to pay him.
Like clockwork he'll then go into a rut and have a stretch of bad games where he just gets abused in the paint and floats around in the games with his head in the clouds not doing much of anything. This time a different group of people (myself included) will come to threads like this one saying he's soft, lazy, inconsistent, etc. and that the Kings should trade him.
The reality is probably somewhere inbetween. However the fact that people are so divided on Willie and that we are continually having these debates should be a red flag in itself. Should the Kings really pay $15 Million Plus to a guy this up and down?
He's consistently inconsistent. He has improved his game but he's never going to be consistent or reach his full potential (especially defensively). He is a tremendous athlete with a sub-par motor and over-inflated self image. He's aloof, just a "different" guy. In general it's tough to count on guys like that from game to game (although there are exceptions like Dennis Rodman).
Bottom line is I would trade him now while he has good value. The Kings need to see if they can get a SF or a mid first round pick from him. Paying Willie $15+ Million a year may not kill you now but it would kill the Kings in two or three years when it comes time to start paying Fox, Buddy, Bagley, Bogi.
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He is a bad defender who gets pushed around by bigs and can't alter shots of guards and is an inconsistent rebounder. Why would we ever pay him to be out long term answer at C if he is a complete liability for a team that wants to run a fast paced offense? I get he shows up every now again with a monster game, but that's not production you want if you're trying to win games. You can't have your starting center play good only half the time and be unplayable the other half. I lowball WCS and if he gets a bigger deal good for him.
Although I've been pleasantly surprised with Willies over all performance I do believe the best move for us long term is to use his trade value to acquire a wing with length and shooting ability. I'll admit I'm a biased towards Willie's "love for the game" and although it may hinder win total this year, i do believe it will be for the better long term and will further spark the growth of Bagley and Giles if we are able to trade him. I know everyone sees it from Bagley already but Giles has the same type of upside and can be a better low post defender regardless of his lack of size. Neither of our rookies are ready to take the reigns this year but imo we are already ahead of schedule so we might as well let them take their lumps this year and allow them both to make quantum leaps next year just like Fox did. If bagley and Giles weren't on the roster i'd be all for keeping willie but our lack of length on the wing is our biggest flaw and Willie is our best chance of getting a more balanced roster.
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Looking at traditional per 36 min stats this year compared to last year, Willie's:
Scoring is up from 16.4 to 18.4
2 pts/game increase
Field goal attempts are up from 13.6 to 15.2
2 shot attempts/game increase, likely due to pace
Field goal % is up from 50.2 to 52.9
almost 3% increase, due to taking fewer shots away from the basket
Free throw attempts are basically unchanged (4.4 to 4.3)
but his FT % has dipped from 61.9% to 50%
Rebounds are up from 9.0 to 10.3
a 1 rebound/game increase with little/no difference between O and D rebound performance
Assists are down from 3.0 to 2.8
barely a measurable difference, and likely due to him playing less high post
Turnovers are down from 1.9 to 1.6
Steals are basically unchanged (1.4 to 1.3)
Blocked shots are down from 1.2 to 0.6
his blocks are (only) half of what they were last year
Personal fouls are up from 3.3 to 4.1
Qualifier: These stats don't give a full picture of how Willie is playing defensively, beyond the blocks, steals and rebounds.
Summary: Willie is scoring and rebounding a bit more, but offering less rim protection this year. And his FT shooting is terrible.
Scoring is up from 16.4 to 18.4
2 pts/game increase
Field goal attempts are up from 13.6 to 15.2
2 shot attempts/game increase, likely due to pace
Field goal % is up from 50.2 to 52.9
almost 3% increase, due to taking fewer shots away from the basket
Free throw attempts are basically unchanged (4.4 to 4.3)
but his FT % has dipped from 61.9% to 50%
Rebounds are up from 9.0 to 10.3
a 1 rebound/game increase with little/no difference between O and D rebound performance
Assists are down from 3.0 to 2.8
barely a measurable difference, and likely due to him playing less high post
Turnovers are down from 1.9 to 1.6
Steals are basically unchanged (1.4 to 1.3)
Blocked shots are down from 1.2 to 0.6
his blocks are (only) half of what they were last year
Personal fouls are up from 3.3 to 4.1
Qualifier: These stats don't give a full picture of how Willie is playing defensively, beyond the blocks, steals and rebounds.
Summary: Willie is scoring and rebounding a bit more, but offering less rim protection this year. And his FT shooting is terrible.
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