Willie Cauley-Stein: the 2018-19 Season watch

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
Looking at traditional per 36 min stats this year compared to last year, Willie's:

Scoring is up from 16.4 to 18.4
2 pts/game increase

Field goal attempts are up from 13.6 to 15.2
2 shot attempts/game increase, likely due to pace

Field goal % is up from 50.2 to 52.9
almost 3% increase, due to taking fewer shots away from the basket

Free throw attempts are basically unchanged (4.4 to 4.3)
but his FT % has dipped from 61.9% to 50%

Rebounds are up from 9.0 to 10.3
a 1 rebound/game increase with little/no difference between O and D rebound performance

Assists are down from 3.0 to 2.8
barely a measurable difference, and likely due to him playing less high post

Turnovers are down from 1.9 to 1.6

Steals are basically unchanged (1.4 to 1.3)

Blocked shots are down from 1.2 to 0.6
his blocks are (only) half of what they were last year

Personal fouls are up from 3.3 to 4.1

Qualifier: These stats don't give a full picture of how Willie is playing defensively, beyond the blocks, steals and rebounds.

Summary: Willie is scoring and rebounding a bit more, but offering less rim protection this year. And his FT shooting is terrible.
don't forget that he also provides no floor spacing outside of 10 feet
 
It’s really not that bizarre when you’ve watched his whole career. Dude cannot maintain any momentum for some reason. Be it his head somewhere else, fatigue, medical trait that I can’t recall. It’s who he is, and after 4 years is it going to ever change? Probably not, sadly.
I’m thinking motivation through his art may be helpful. Another tat on his face to remind him to rebound and defend
 

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I know one thing for certain, we are idiots if we don't trade WCS and also don't re-sign him. I'm open to giving him a good contract depending on the rest of the season, but if the FO are not a fan of that idea, they better get something back for him. We cannot let more talent walk for nothing again. Either trade him or bite the bullet and re-sign him.
 
I know one thing for certain, we are idiots if we don't trade WCS and also don't re-sign him. I'm open to giving him a good contract depending on the rest of the season, but if the FO are not a fan of that idea, they better get something back for him. We cannot let more talent walk for nothing again. Either trade him or bite the bullet and re-sign him.
We are so traumatized as Kings fans... lol. Almost no other franchise lets talent walk. We were beset by shoddy leadership in the past, but I would be SHOCKED if we didn't get value for WCS. It won't be like trading players we've tried to trade in the past. An up and coming player on an up and coming team that is getting crowded out is EXACTLY the type of player you can maximize trade value out of. No "emotional" issues causing the separation, no hidden injuries, no lingering mediocreness. WCS could and should net us something sweet, but I don't think we trade him this year. I think we heavily front load his contract, pay him for one more year, and then trade him. This gives Giles more time to develop as well, and I don't see Giles whining about a bench role and significant minutes next year.

The reason we front load his contract is because 1. we can afford it. 2. it makes him more attractive after that first heavy year, 3. if we aren't able to get the value we want, a front loaded WCS contract is better for us if we want to keep him.

I'd pay him 20 mil next year and 10-12 for 2-3 years after that. You're telling me we can't trade WCS on a 10M/year contract? It's a way of extracting great value in a trade by enticing a team to take a bargain two year option on a guy that could work out great for them. Whatever overages we pay him in the first year will come back to us in trade value.

Note also that Willie is more likely to take a front loaded contract if it is shorter, as tacking on an extra season at 10M cuts into his earning ability at that time. Realistically I think the contract offer should look like: 3 yrs, 22M first year, 10M next two years. He's a 15M/yr player in this league with his production right now. Open with that offer and let them negotiate you up to 11.5 over years 2 and 3 for a clean 45M.
 
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We are so traumatized as Kingsfans... lol. Almost no other franchise let's talent walk. We were beset by shoddy leadership in the past, but I would be SHOCKED if we didn't get value for WCS. It won't be like trading players we've tried to trade in the past. An up and coming player on an up and coming team that is getting crowded out is EXACTLY the type of player you can maximize trade value out of. No "emotional" issues causing the separation, no hidden injuries, no lingering mediocreness. WCS could and should net us something sweet, but I don't think we trade him this year. I think we heavily front load his contract, pay him for one more year, and then trade him. This gives Giles more time to develop as well, and I don't see Giles whining about a bench role and significant minutes next year.

The reason we front load his contract is because 1. we can afford it. 2. it makes him more attractive after that first heavy year, 3. if we aren't able to get the value we want, a front loaded WCS contract is better for us if we want to keep him.

I'd pay him 20 mil next year and 10-12 for 2-3 years after that. You're telling me we can't trade WCS on a 10M/year contract? It's a way of extracting great value in a trade by enticing a team to take a bargain two year option on a guy that could work out great for them. Whatever overages we pay him in the first year will come back to us in trade value.
nice strategy
 

Capt. Factorial

Cantry Member
Staff member
if we aren't able to get the value we want, a front loaded WCS contract is better for us if we want to keep him.

I'd pay him 20 mil next year and 10-12 for 2-3 years after that. You're telling me we can't trade WCS on a 10M/year contract?
Unfortunately, you just can't drastically frontload contracts like that under the CBA. The maximum yearly decrease is 8% of the value of the first year of the contract - so if the contract starts at $20M, the most frontloaded it can be would be $20M/$18.4M/$15.8M/$14.2M.
 
Front loading is contract with an 8% decrease would be better than the alternative but the thing everybody has to remember is that WCS is a Restricted Free Agent.

If you really loved him and had no problem paying him than that's not an issue, problem is some stupid team may offer him the max or very close to it and then what do you do? While it sounds absurd to offer WCS max money, it could easily happen if he has a great final month of the season. Unfortunately there are a lot of reckless GM's around the league.

So that is where trading him before the deadline this year becomes more attractive, especially if the Kings are starting to fade a little and not a realistic shot at making the playoffs.
 
Front loading is contract with an 8% decrease would be better than the alternative but the thing everybody has to remember is that WCS is a Restricted Free Agent.

If you really loved him and had no problem paying him than that's not an issue, problem is some stupid team may offer him the max or very close to it and then what do you do? While it sounds absurd to offer WCS max money, it could easily happen if he has a great final month of the season. Unfortunately there are a lot of reckless GM's around the league.

So that is where trading him before the deadline this year becomes more attractive, especially if the Kings are starting to fade a little and not a realistic shot at making the playoffs.
It's a gamble I'm willing to take.
 
There's five to six guys we can consider part of a core now. Fox at his current pace and improvement is probably looking at a max by year 4. Bagley has the ceiling and could well be that too. Buddy is probably going to warrant like a 4/75 deal or so and Bogdan will get starter money. WCS of course wants the big payday too. Giles is the big wildcard; unlike all the others he could wash out but also has the max contract player ceiling like Fox and Bagley.

Whatever the case, we can't afford to pay all of these guys. We need to cut base on one of them (WCS) and get a discount on another (Bogdan or Buddy).

Like I said, WCS should be the one to cut base on. Don't overpay and flip for a cost-controlled asset in order to keep something in the pipeline.
 
Whatever the case, we can't afford to pay all of these guys.
I'm not so sure. Not all of these guys will be need to paid the same season. For example, even if the team re-signs Willie to a sizable, 4-year deal, that deal will only have 1 season remaining when Bagley hits restricted free agency.

There's being prudent, but then there's also putting the cart before the horse. Some of the talk here seems to cross the line from the former to the latter.
 
I had no interest in visiting this thread. But once I realised that both the Giles and the MBIII threads are also about Willie I caved. Obsession??

For me. Willie might have a few seasons in the playoffs if he is either the worst starter on an uptempo team or the first big off the bench. I would be happy for him to fill either of those roles with sac. He's not consistent enough/ not influential enough to be the third best player on a team. Doesn't mean he can't add value in the interim though.

Seems like a nice guy.
 
I had no interest in visiting this thread. But once I realised that both the Giles and the MBIII threads are also about Willie I caved. Obsession??

For me. Willie might have a few seasons in the playoffs if he is either the worst starter on an uptempo team or the first big off the bench. I would be happy for him to fill either of those roles with sac. He's not consistent enough/ not influential enough to be the third best player on a team. Doesn't mean he can't add value in the interim though.

Seems like a nice guy.
I agree with all this... however the issue is Willie's stated goal of earning a massive payday and kinda being the man on a good team. If he's willing to "fit in" here, would love to have him. He'd be a good big off the bench. Just not for 17M a year.
 
I agree with all this... however the issue is Willie's stated goal of earning a massive payday and kinda being the man on a good team. If he's willing to "fit in" here, would love to have him. He'd be a good big off the bench. Just not for 17M a year.
Sure, I remember Willie saying he wanted "a massive payday!" In fact, I think he used that word three times for emphasis.
And then he said he wanted to sleepwalk through his next season painting landscapes before and after games.
:rolleyes:
I didn't like what Willie said about getting paid, and I'm fine trading him for something of equal value (before someone offers him a huge contract like we did to the Bulls and the Wizards). But, come on, saying he wants a "massive payday" is a bit of an exaggeration.
 
I agree with all this... however the issue is Willie's stated goal of earning a massive payday and kinda being the man on a good team. If he's willing to "fit in" here, would love to have him. He'd be a good big off the bench. Just not for 17M a year.
I agree it is a valid point. And this is one area where our front office remains largely untested. But, given I think they made solid decisions with old players (trading cuz, releasing papa), and that they have not overpaid or offered too many years to potential free agent additions, hopefully the outcome will be palatable for all.
 
Sure, I remember Willie saying he wanted "a massive payday!" In fact, I think he used that word three times for emphasis.
And then he said he wanted to sleepwalk through his next season painting landscapes before and after games.
:rolleyes:
I didn't like what Willie said about getting paid, and I'm fine trading him for something of equal value (before someone offers him a huge contract like we did to the Bulls and the Wizards). But, come on, saying he wants a "massive payday" is a bit of an exaggeration.
So? My point is that he has the wrong motivation, and it kinda shows on the court.
 
I know one thing for certain, we are idiots if we don't trade WCS and also don't re-sign him. I'm open to giving him a good contract depending on the rest of the season, but if the FO are not a fan of that idea, they better get something back for him. We cannot let more talent walk for nothing again. Either trade him or bite the bullet and re-sign him.
This should be something we all agree on, the Gordon Hayward-Jazz scenario is a worst-case-scenario.



The Kings might not have Bogdan right now if not for Utah's stupidity there. It was said PHX was willing to trade both of their top-10 picks and possibly more for Hayward at that draft, Instead he walked for nothing (as they paid up for rentals like George Hill and used cap space on win-now players like Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw), and they shoudla seen it coming.
 
If we dont sign WCS or trade him for a non center who will play center? or do people think Bagley can play center full time?
I don't see why Bagley couldn't play center going forward. He rebounds and blocks shots better than WCS already.

Willie may be taller than Bagley but nothing else about Willie says "center". Willie actually is a pretty solid defender and guards the mid range and perimeter well for a bigman.....but defensively he really plays more like a PF that has a real center rebounding and clogging up the lane behind him.
 
I don't see why Bagley couldn't play center going forward. He rebounds and blocks shots better than WCS already.

Willie may be taller than Bagley but nothing else about Willie says "center". Willie actually is a pretty solid defender and guards the mid range and perimeter well for a bigman.....but defensively he really plays more like a PF that has a real center rebounding and clogging up the lane behind him.
he has the game for a C, not sure about the size.
 
So? My point is that he has the wrong motivation, and it kinda shows on the court.
If only we used this criteria with the rest of the population.... I get it. Sports is different, but damn I get up everyday, slog my way to work so I can make enough money to do the things I want to do in life.
 
If only we used this criteria with the rest of the population.... I get it. Sports is different, but damn I get up everyday, slog my way to work so I can make enough money to do the things I want to do in life.
Yep agreed but many jobs don't involve competition especially athletic competition. That's where having a love for the game and a true fiery competitor Type-A personality come in as well.

I'm sure Willie likes basketball and it's towards the top of his list of many loves/likes but does a guy like Willie truly love the game the way a guy like Buddy Hield does? I don't know for sure but I would obviously guess the answer is no, his attitude and play just don't suggest it.

Buddy Hield on the other hand, no question he eats, sleeps, and breathes the game of basketball. That'd why he plays so hard and why he spends so much time in the gym working on his game. Yeah sure that will lead to getting paid more too but I think for a guy like Buddy it's about the competition and about just being as good as he can be playing basketball.

The irony about the NBA and professional sports in general is that these guys get paid millions of dollars but so many of the top guys who are fierce competitors love the game so much they'd play for 40K a year if they had no other choice.
 
So? My point is that when you greatly exaggerate, you undermine your own argument.
In my estimation it wasn't a great exaggeration, but I appreciate your point.

I would just rather have guys on the team that are in it to win it, and know that a payday will come if they focus on that. If he wants to get paid 17M a year somewhere else vs. 14M here to come off the bench, I totally get it, and don't hold it against him, it's just the market. But when you voice that out loud, it's not all that great for morale, and it might cause your team mates to think you are out for numbers... and maybe slack on the small stuff that wins championships... like defense and rebounding. I stand by my point.

And I would never begrudge Willie taking a max contract. Hell no. Just the dynamics of the league and something we need to manage for.
 
In my estimation it wasn't a great exaggeration, but I appreciate your point.

I would just rather have guys on the team that are in it to win it, and know that a payday will come if they focus on that. If he wants to get paid 17M a year somewhere else vs. 14M here to come off the bench, I totally get it, and don't hold it against him, it's just the market. But when you voice that out loud, it's not all that great for morale, and it might cause your team mates to think you are out for numbers... and maybe slack on the small stuff that wins championships... like defense and rebounding. I stand by my point.

And I would never begrudge Willie taking a max contract. Hell no. Just the dynamics of the league and something we need to manage for.

It would be good for Willie to watch some old film of the Kings back in the day and see just how good they were defensively, even Vlade. Vlade played better D than Willie, with half the athleticism. Kings led the league in Opp FG% at least one year I think... usually near the top.
 
I have been a little too harsh with Willie. He is a frustrating player for me to watch. We thought we were getting the defensive leader and rim protector. We got a guy who focuses on offense because it is safer. Last year he fell down a lot. He has worked hard on offense with his footwork. He is much improved. But he takes games off. He gets 4 rebounds. He does not rotate from the weakside. He swats at the ball instead of moving his feet. He is the main reason the Kings are weak under the basket and give up too many layups. He is a gifted player in many ways, but does not use his physical skills very well on defense, and is the lowest achieveing rebounder in the league considering the fact that he is a fast 7 footer that can get off his feet quickly.