Why Doesn't Holmes Shoot 3s?

Richaun Holmes Should Shoot 3s


  • Total voters
    33
  • Poll closed .
#1
Here I am finding myself on a Saturday looking into some trade possibilities, researching stats, having a beer or two, etc. and during my search I came to find myself asking the question...

Why doesn't Holmes shoot 3s?


First off, I noticed that he's shooting a blistering 81.7% from the free throw line this year on 93 attempts, and it got me thinking...how many people that have a great FT% also don't shoot 3s?

Looking at this season specifically, Holmes is the only player who averages above a 81.7% FT% AND has 0 3PA (must have at least 50 FTA). That's a bit eye opening. I thought I would expand the search to allow the FT% to be lower to see what I would get. When I expanded the FT% to be 75%+, I found two players who have attempted 0 3PA: Holmes & Noel. When I expanded the FT% to be 70%+, it still was just Holmes & Noel. I then started to look at past seasons. Only 1 player had a 81.7%+ FT% with 0 3PA over the last 4 seasons. That player was Aaron Baynes who is now shooting 35% from three on 4 attempts per game this season. Holmes has been a fairly decent FT shooter throughout his career. He has shot 72.7% from the line for his career and 76.1% from the line across the last 2 seasons. When going back to his college career, he shot 69.7% in 3 seasons. He definitely has some touch when shooting the ball.

From a 3PT%, Holmes shot 35.3% on 85 3PA during his 3 seasons at Bowling Green and showed improvement from his sophomore year (30%) to his junior year (41.9%). In the NBA, he shot 18.2% from 3 in his rookie year. However, in his 2nd year, he shot a very respectable 35.1% from 3. The year after that, it went back down to 12.9% (which also happened to be the year of his worst FT% as a NBA player).

So when I look at his "magical" 35.1% 3PT% season (2016-17), he also shot 45.2% from the 16ft-3pt line which shows that he wasn't just hitting jumpers beyond the 3PT line but also in the midrange. When diving into that 35.1% some more, he actually shot 46.7% from the corner three whereas he shot 32.8% from above the arc. It's probably already assumed, but almost all of his shots were catch & shoot attempts. However, I was curious how his shot distribution looked when I looked at "closest defender" splits. 92% of his 3PA were when the closest defender was 6+ft away (when he is wide open).

So I'm not here trying to say that Holmes should be out there putting up 5-8 3PA per game, but the fact that he...
  • Shot 35.3% from 3 in college
  • Shot 35.1% from 3 & 45.2% from 16ft-3PT line in 1 of his 5 NBA seasons (However, 2 of those seasons he didn't attempt a 3)
  • Shot 76.1% from the FT line the past 2 seasons & is shooting 81.7% from the FT line this season
  • Looks to have solid mechanics on his shot
...I wouldn't mind letting him take some catch & shoot 3s when he is wide open. What say you KingsFans.com?
 
#3
the question that should be asked here first is, why doesn't he shoot mid range jumpers? all his shots are push shots so I don't even know what his form looks like if he were to attempt a shot

Him taking a midrange shot at around 0:51 to give you a sense of his form.
 
#5
that's in his Philly days. I'd imagine there is a reason he wasn't asked to shoot jump shots in Phoenix and in Sacramento now.
So? You asked to see what his form looks like. That video gives you an idea.

I’m not satisfied with the answer “there must be a reason.” Either they tell us that reason or give it a go, Mr. Holmes.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#7
So? You asked to see what his form looks like. That video gives you an idea.

I’m not satisfied with the answer “there must be a reason.” Either they tell us that reason or give it a go, Mr. Holmes.
doesn't matter what you are satisfied with, that's not his game. He knows his role and he isn't a three point shooter all of a sudden just because
 
#8
doesn't matter what you are satisfied with, that's not his game. He knows his role and he isn't a three point shooter all of a sudden just because
Just because? The OP above is a paper trail of why he may be a guy that we would be willing to let him take a 3 here and there. It’s not a “just because” sort of logic. Far from it.
 
#9
I don't see how it would help the team at all. He has the 3rd best true shooting percentage in the league at 69%.

George Hill is actually a tick better than him in TS% but he's hitting almost 52% from 3.

All it would do is hurt his efficiency.
It might hurt his efficiency but it could help the teams efficiency, and at the end of day, we want the team to perform better.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#10
Just because? The OP above is a paper trail of why he may be a guy that we would be willing to let him take a 3 here and there. It’s not a “just because” sort of logic. Far from it.
so just skip the mid range shot completely to see if he can make that shot first before extending the range?
 
#11
so just skip the mid range shot completely to see if he can make that shot first before extending the range?
No, I would be willing to accept that as a stepping stone. Although it’s been proven that the midrange shot is the least efficient shot in today’s game.
 
#13
Might hurt his efficiency but it could help the teams efficiency, and at the end of day, we want the team to perform better.
I don't see it helping team efficiency at all. Teams aren't going to be sticking to Holmes at the 3pt line to open up the lane for Fox. They're going to just let him shoot open 3s and brick them, which will not only hurt his own efficiency but hurt the team's efficiency.

Holmes needing to shoot 3s should be like 256th on your list of things the Kings need to change in order to start winning more games.
 
#15
realistically speaking here, do you honestly see the coaching staff all of a sudden asking Holmes to shoot jump shots? I definitely don't.
Not really. The puzzling thing to me is why he doesn’t. He obvIously has touch shooting the ball, and with Bagley on the roster having a guy with Holmes abilities + a jump shot would be a great complement going forward.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#16
Not really. The puzzling thing to me is why he doesn’t. He obvIously has touch shooting the ball, and with Bagley on the roster having a guy with Holmes abilities + a jump shot would be a great complement going forward.
also, Holmes with a jump shot would basically mean that Kings wouldn't have enough money to re-sign him because he would get a boatload of cash for his next contract
 
#17
I don't see it helping team efficiency at all. Teams aren't going to be sticking to Holmes at the 3pt line to open up the lane for Fox. They're going to just let him shoot open 3s and brick them, which will not only hurt his own efficiency but hurt the team's efficiency.

Holmes needing to shoot 3s should be like 256th on your list of things the Kings need to change in order to start winning more games.
Well if he’s bricking them then yeah there’s no arguing that. I’m not saying he should be shooting 3s if he’s hitting them at a 20% clip. Nobody is going to argue that.

But if he can hit them at a respectable rate, it would be foolish for you to think that decreasing his TS% for the sake of being able to hit another type of shot couldn’t help this teams efficiency overall (which is basically what you said in your original post). I can break out that math if needed.

I wouldn’t say there is a “need” for Holmes to shoot 3s. Rather it’s puzzling that he doesn’t really shoot at all knowing the touch he has shown.

The idea behind all of this was to find Bagley a good complement. Holmes with a jump shot is as good as it gets as far as I’m concerned.
 
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#18
also, Holmes with a jump shot would basically mean that Kings wouldn't have enough money to re-sign him because he would get a boatload of cash for his next contract
That’s not true. It depends on how they handle their contracts and payroll in the next coming 1.5 years.
 
#19
Well if he’s bricking them then yeah there’s no arguing that. I’m not saying he should be shooting 3s if he’s hitting them at a 20% clip. Nobody is going to argue that.

But if he can’t hit them at a respectable rate, it would be foolish for you to think that decreasing his TS% for the sake of being able to hit another type of shot couldn’t help this teams efficiency overall (which is basically what you said in your original post). I can break out that math if needed.

I wouldn’t say there is a “need” for Holmes to shoot 3s. Rather it’s puzzling that he doesn’t really shoot at all knowing the touch he has shown.

The idea behind all of this was to find Bagley a good complement. Holmes with a jump shot is as good as it gets as far as I’m concerned.
2015 8 for 44 - .18%
2016 27 for 77 - 35%
2017 4 for 31 - 13%

You're a numbers guy. To me, 2016 looks like an anomaly. I don't think Holmes could come out and hit them at a 35% clip again. If anything, he would more than likely shoot them like Dedmon has this year. If we were putting money on it, I'd say he couldn't crack the 25% mark.

Besides even if we could recreate his 2016 season from beyond the arc, he still only hit one 3 pointer every other game. That's hardly enough to justify lowering his elite efficiency to open up the offense for other guys. I highly doubt teams respected him enough to open the offense up for Philly that year and they aren't going to respect him enough to open it up for us.

This guy shooting the ball in the paint is the one elite thing this team does. I don't think changing that is going to improve the team.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#20
That’s not true. It depends on how they handle their contracts and payroll in the next coming 1.5 years.
well Fox will be getting paid, Bagley we don't know about just yet. so you can't say it's not true. we don't know what will happen in those 1.5 years from now
 
#23
well Fox will be getting paid, Bagley we don't know about just yet. so you can't say it's not true. we don't know what will happen in those 1.5 years from now
You said “King’s wouldn’t have enough money to resign him.” I said that’s not true. Moves can be made that would allow us to resign him.
 
#24
2015 8 for 44 - .18%
2016 27 for 77 - 35%
2017 4 for 31 - 13%

You're a numbers guy. To me, 2016 looks like an anomaly. I don't think Holmes could come out and hit them at a 35% clip again. If anything, he would more than likely shoot them like Dedmon has this year. If we were putting money on it, I'd say he couldn't crack the 25% mark.

Besides even if we could recreate his 2016 season from beyond the arc, he still only hit one 3 pointer every other game. That's hardly enough to justify lowering his elite efficiency to open up the offense for other guys. I highly doubt teams respected him enough to open the offense up for Philly that year and they aren't going to respect him enough to open it up for us.

This guy shooting the ball in the paint is the one elite thing this team does. I don't think changing that is going to improve the team.
Yeah it definitely does look like an anomaly if you look at just those numbers, and you know if Holmes was also a 60% FT shooter, this thread probably wouldn’t have been created.

The underlying premise of thread is about FT% being a decent predictor or good gauge of a player as a shooter. Holmes has been a good FT shooter throughout his career and a great one this season. The observation was that we really haven’t seen a player who shoots his FTs at the rate that he does while not taking a 3PA (let alone a midrange jumper) in the past 4.5 seasons. That’s eye opening and makes me think there was some untapped potential there.

Keep in mind that this conclusion would be drawn whether he shot any 3s in the past or not but the fact that he has found some success shooting them in the NBA & college adds to the FT argument I’m making and gives me hope that he could have some stretch potential.
 
#26
while retaining Fox and possibly Bagley if he shows his worth?
Not sure why you keep mentioning Bagley. He’s up for an extension in the 2022-23 offseason. Holmes is a FA in the 2021 offseason. We just need to make sure we’re under the cap enough to sign him.

That might not mean keeping all of Hield, Bogdan, Barnes, & Bjelica but it’s possible. The idea would be to sell some of those guys off for future picks/rookie scale guys to give us the opportunity to resign Holmes and keep him with Fox & Bagley.
 
#27
I always think it's a good idea for a decent shooter to launch a 3 when he's all alone. I'm sure he practices it and doubt he'd do any worse than Bagley.

He does his best work near the basket, but if he can keep the D honest on screens by taking one a game, even better.