Here I am finding myself on a Saturday looking into some trade possibilities, researching stats, having a beer or two, etc. and during my search I came to find myself asking the question...
Why doesn't Holmes shoot 3s?
First off, I noticed that he's shooting a blistering 81.7% from the free throw line this year on 93 attempts, and it got me thinking...how many people that have a great FT% also don't shoot 3s?
Looking at this season specifically, Holmes is the only player who averages above a 81.7% FT% AND has 0 3PA (must have at least 50 FTA). That's a bit eye opening. I thought I would expand the search to allow the FT% to be lower to see what I would get. When I expanded the FT% to be 75%+, I found two players who have attempted 0 3PA: Holmes & Noel. When I expanded the FT% to be 70%+, it still was just Holmes & Noel. I then started to look at past seasons. Only 1 player had a 81.7%+ FT% with 0 3PA over the last 4 seasons. That player was Aaron Baynes who is now shooting 35% from three on 4 attempts per game this season. Holmes has been a fairly decent FT shooter throughout his career. He has shot 72.7% from the line for his career and 76.1% from the line across the last 2 seasons. When going back to his college career, he shot 69.7% in 3 seasons. He definitely has some touch when shooting the ball.
From a 3PT%, Holmes shot 35.3% on 85 3PA during his 3 seasons at Bowling Green and showed improvement from his sophomore year (30%) to his junior year (41.9%). In the NBA, he shot 18.2% from 3 in his rookie year. However, in his 2nd year, he shot a very respectable 35.1% from 3. The year after that, it went back down to 12.9% (which also happened to be the year of his worst FT% as a NBA player).
So when I look at his "magical" 35.1% 3PT% season (2016-17), he also shot 45.2% from the 16ft-3pt line which shows that he wasn't just hitting jumpers beyond the 3PT line but also in the midrange. When diving into that 35.1% some more, he actually shot 46.7% from the corner three whereas he shot 32.8% from above the arc. It's probably already assumed, but almost all of his shots were catch & shoot attempts. However, I was curious how his shot distribution looked when I looked at "closest defender" splits. 92% of his 3PA were when the closest defender was 6+ft away (when he is wide open).
So I'm not here trying to say that Holmes should be out there putting up 5-8 3PA per game, but the fact that he...
Why doesn't Holmes shoot 3s?
First off, I noticed that he's shooting a blistering 81.7% from the free throw line this year on 93 attempts, and it got me thinking...how many people that have a great FT% also don't shoot 3s?
Looking at this season specifically, Holmes is the only player who averages above a 81.7% FT% AND has 0 3PA (must have at least 50 FTA). That's a bit eye opening. I thought I would expand the search to allow the FT% to be lower to see what I would get. When I expanded the FT% to be 75%+, I found two players who have attempted 0 3PA: Holmes & Noel. When I expanded the FT% to be 70%+, it still was just Holmes & Noel. I then started to look at past seasons. Only 1 player had a 81.7%+ FT% with 0 3PA over the last 4 seasons. That player was Aaron Baynes who is now shooting 35% from three on 4 attempts per game this season. Holmes has been a fairly decent FT shooter throughout his career. He has shot 72.7% from the line for his career and 76.1% from the line across the last 2 seasons. When going back to his college career, he shot 69.7% in 3 seasons. He definitely has some touch when shooting the ball.
From a 3PT%, Holmes shot 35.3% on 85 3PA during his 3 seasons at Bowling Green and showed improvement from his sophomore year (30%) to his junior year (41.9%). In the NBA, he shot 18.2% from 3 in his rookie year. However, in his 2nd year, he shot a very respectable 35.1% from 3. The year after that, it went back down to 12.9% (which also happened to be the year of his worst FT% as a NBA player).
So when I look at his "magical" 35.1% 3PT% season (2016-17), he also shot 45.2% from the 16ft-3pt line which shows that he wasn't just hitting jumpers beyond the 3PT line but also in the midrange. When diving into that 35.1% some more, he actually shot 46.7% from the corner three whereas he shot 32.8% from above the arc. It's probably already assumed, but almost all of his shots were catch & shoot attempts. However, I was curious how his shot distribution looked when I looked at "closest defender" splits. 92% of his 3PA were when the closest defender was 6+ft away (when he is wide open).
So I'm not here trying to say that Holmes should be out there putting up 5-8 3PA per game, but the fact that he...
- Shot 35.3% from 3 in college
- Shot 35.1% from 3 & 45.2% from 16ft-3PT line in 1 of his 5 NBA seasons (However, 2 of those seasons he didn't attempt a 3)
- Shot 76.1% from the FT line the past 2 seasons & is shooting 81.7% from the FT line this season
- Looks to have solid mechanics on his shot
