Who should be the Kings Starting Small Forward?

[The_Jamal]

woah Anderson at 10mpy? I'm not a big fan at him at all. His 3pt shot needs a lot of work...he attempted a career high 0.8 3pa/game.


But he doesn't shoot 3s at all. It's going to be a gigantic step for him just to take more 3s, let alone get in the 34% range. I don't get the infatuation with Anderson. He's got good size at SF, but lacks speed. He's not going to be able to run with Fox. Yeah we need a SF who can actually defend, but we also need a 3pt shooter due to the lack of shooting from Fox and the bigs. This would be our lineup rolling into next season:

Fox
Bogdan
Anderson
Bagley
WCS

....we only have 1 shooter in the lineup and that's Bogdan. Floor spacing is going to be a nightmare.

Do you guys really want this guy running up and down the floor with Fox?

https://streamable.com/ttikn

I want good players next to Fox, so yeah, Anderson fits the bill.

Cause Anderson plays under control means he can't run with Fox? Why? He adds another quality ball-handler and passer on the floor that will help the offense flow better in the half-court, where we struggled immensely. He'll add a shade of what we were all excited about Doncic bringing here.

And I've already talked about how I think Anderson on offense and how his tools and USG rate just don't match up. He's a talented guy; really good passer and ball-handler for a wing, he's an efficient scorer, he gets to the FT line. So there has to be some underlying reason why he only got 13% USG that's reserved for the Tyson Chandler/Mbah a Moute/MKG's of the world. Whether it's confidence, scheme, unselfishness, Anderson is a guy who's stat profile suggests he can support a 5-8% increase in USG and remain effective.

Shooting is great when you can add it and it doesn't burn you in other areas. It doesn't mean you go pay a Doug McDermott 7 million (which you seemed to want to do) and pass over a far, far superior player in Kyle Anderson just to add it.

 

[ESP47]

woah Anderson at 10mpy? I'm not a big fan at him at all. His 3pt shot needs a lot of work...he attempted a career high 0.8 3pa/game.


But he doesn't shoot 3s at all. It's going to be a gigantic step for him just to take more 3s, let alone get in the 34% range. I don't get the infatuation with Anderson. He's got good size at SF, but lacks speed. He's not going to be able to run with Fox. Yeah we need a SF who can actually defend, but we also need a 3pt shooter due to the lack of shooting from Fox and the bigs. This would be our lineup rolling into next season:

Fox
Bogdan
Anderson
Bagley
WCS

....we only have 1 shooter in the lineup and that's Bogdan. Floor spacing is going to be a nightmare.

Do you guys really want this guy running up and down the floor with Fox?

https://streamable.com/ttikn

I'm seriously beating my head against a wall with all this "running with Fox" talk from everyone. I can't really think of a less important thing to worry about than the two times a game that Fox sprints up the floor full speed. You don't have to be a speed demon to play in an uptempo offense.

You sign Anderson with the hopes that he can shoot about 35% with 3 attempts per game or so. Couple that with his elite defense and he's almost perfect for the position. Anderson isn't an athletic specimen but he runs just fine. All he was doing in that clip was keeping the defender on his back so he had no chance to defend the layup and that's exactly what happened. I see a high IQ play there. Similar to Doncic running the pick and roll where he keeps the guy on his back and unable to defend him.

He's not a sure thing in any sense of the matter but neither are any of the other guys available. He's young, he has a wide variety of skills, plays elite defense and just needs to develop a better shot to become a high level role player. He's essentially a much better version of Temple and Shumpert and his advanced stats show him possibly being on the verge of breaking out. Someone on the perimeter needs to be able to play a lick of defense on this squad or else they are going no where at any point.

 

[The_Jamal]

Nah, we don't any of this. Dude can't run with Fox.

 

[SacTownKid]

Remember, the MLE is like 8-9 million now. Anderson is worth around that IMO.

 

[RichieInRocklin]

Since the Lakers now have LeBron as their SF, what do you think it would take to get Brandon Ingram in a trade and what do you think about him as a player?

 

[twslam07]

I went ahead and looked at some on-court stats to see who might be the best fit at SF (assuming we don't sign anyone).

For this test, I kept three players on the court as constants: Fox, Labissiere, & Cauley-Stein. I chose Fox because he will be our starting PG, and I chose Labissiere and Cauley-Stein because I'm hoping we will be running with an athletic starting frontcourt of Bagley & Giles/Cauley-Stein. With that in mind, Labissiere & Cauley-Stein seem like the best proxies when looking up and down the roster from last year.

With Hield at SG & Bogdanovic at SF = +4.2 points per 100 possessions (82 minute sample)
With Hield at SG & Jackson at SF = -37.1 points per 100 possessions (26 minute sample)
With Hield at SG & Temple at SF = -46.2 points per 100 possessions (7 minute sample)
With Bogdanovic at SG & Jackson at SF = -17.0 points per 100 possessions (109 minute sample)
With Bogdanovic at SG & Temple at SF = -27.3 points per 100 possessions (16 minute sample)

 

[Noble]

JJ showed that he wasn't afraid to shoot and always played hard. It wasn't amazing year 1, but those qualities will eventually translate into a solid player.

I would start Temple/Shump for now, but I'm interested to see how much JJ has developed


And JaKar was pretty dope, cool dude and a grinder. Having him for big 3s and spot duty at the 4 is ok with me.

 

[ockingsfan]

I'm seriously beating my head against a wall with all this "running with Fox" talk from everyone. I can't really think of a less important thing to worry about than the two times a game that Fox sprints up the floor full speed. You don't have to be a speed demon to play in an uptempo offense.

You sign Anderson with the hopes that he can shoot about 35% with 3 attempts per game or so. Couple that with his elite defense and he's almost perfect for the position. Anderson isn't an athletic specimen but he runs just fine. All he was doing in that clip was keeping the defender on his back so he had no chance to defend the layup and that's exactly what happened. I see a high IQ play there. Similar to Doncic running the pick and roll where he keeps the guy on his back and unable to defend him.

He's not a sure thing in any sense of the matter but neither are any of the other guys available. He's young, he has a wide variety of skills, plays elite defense and just needs to develop a better shot to become a high level role player. He's essentially a much better version of Temple and Shumpert and his advanced stats show him possibly being on the verge of breaking out. Someone on the perimeter needs to be able to play a lick of defense on this squad or else they are going no where at any point.

I think the main problem with Kyle Anderson is his lack of 3 point shooting.

With 3 non shooting starter in Fox, WCS (or Giles) and Bagley, you really need a good 3 point shooting small forward to spread the floor.

I love Anderson's defense, but you really need to count on Fox becoming a good 3 point shooter to make that line up work.

 

[roasthawg]

Bogdan for sure. Him and hield should get a chance at starting together if this is the group we roll into the season with.

 

[Kingsfan23]

I went ahead and looked at some on-court stats to see who might be the best fit at SF (assuming we don't sign anyone).

For this test, I kept three players on the court as constants: Fox, Labissiere, & Cauley-Stein. I chose Fox because he will be our starting PG, and I chose Labissiere and Cauley-Stein because I'm hoping we will be running with an athletic starting frontcourt of Bagley & Giles/Cauley-Stein. With that in mind, Labissiere & Cauley-Stein seem like the best proxies when looking up and down the roster from last year.

With Hield at SG & Bogdanovic at SF = +4.2 points per 100 possessions (82 minute sample)
With Hield at SG & Jackson at SF = -37.1 points per 100 possessions (26 minute sample)
With Hield at SG & Temple at SF = -46.2 points per 100 possessions (7 minute sample)
With Bogdanovic at SG & Jackson at SF = -17.0 points per 100 possessions (109 minute sample)
With Bogdanovic at SG & Temple at SF = -27.3 points per 100 possessions (16 minute sample)

Yep.

Even a blind man can see

The Kings aren’t in a position to keep one of their better players on the bench. They aren’t that good, or have that much leeway. And not looking out for Buddy’s concerns

And if I were Buddy I’d demand it, and leave the first chance someone offered it (starting position)

 

[Kingster]

I want good players next to Fox, so yeah, Anderson fits the bill.

Cause Anderson plays under control means he can't run with Fox? Why? He adds another quality ball-handler and passer on the floor that will help the offense flow better in the half-court, where we struggled immensely. He'll add a shade of what we were all excited about Doncic bringing here.

And I've already talked about how I think Anderson on offense and how his tools and USG rate just don't match up. He's a talented guy; really good passer and ball-handler for a wing, he's an efficient scorer, he gets to the FT line. So there has to be some underlying reason why he only got 13% USG that's reserved for the Tyson Chandler/Mbah a Moute/MKG's of the world. Whether it's confidence, scheme, unselfishness, Anderson is a guy who's stat profile suggests he can support a 5-8% increase in USG and remain effective.

Shooting is great when you can add it and it doesn't burn you in other areas. It doesn't mean you go pay a Doug McDermott 7 million (which you seemed to want to do) and pass over a far, far superior player in Kyle Anderson just to add it.

Maybe Pop didn't want him with high usage. What Pop wants, he gets. It's hard for me to believe that Popovich of all coaches would not increase a players possessions if there was some untapped potential there. We would have to make the assumption that Pop did not see something in this player's game that we think we see. If I'm going to make any assumption it's that Pop sees more than any fan about Anderson and kept his usage low for a reason, that reason being that he believed more possessions would mean more inefficiency. We should be very cautious on thinking that a player from SA is going to do as well or better in Sacramento. We've been to that rodeo before.

 

[Kingsfan23]

It’s also a reason why they might not go after SF hard this year, because the intent is Buddy/Bogdan together

 

[ESP47]

I think the main problem with Kyle Anderson is his lack of 3 point shooting.

With 3 non shooting starter in Fox, WCS (or Giles) and Bagley, you really need a good shooting small forward to spread the floor.

I love Anderson's defense, but you really need to count on Fox becoming a good 3 point shooter to make that line up work.

Personally I think Fox is going to wind up being a bust or just a rotational player to the point where building around him isn't going to matter because it's going to take a different PG in order for the Kings to win so I'd be more keen on picking up Kyle Anderson anyway.

But I know I'm on a bit of an island when it comes to that as well.

 

[dude12]

You can get the same defense out of Jakarr for a fraction of the cost it would take to sign Kyle Anderson. Better rebounding. Won’t pass as well. Does Kyle Anderson want to sign for about 3 mill a year?

 

[jcwkings]

Something tells me it's gonna be Shumpert on opening day at least.

Fox, Bogi, Shumpert, Bagley, WCS

 

[The_Jamal]

You can get the same defense out of Jakarr for a fraction of the cost it would take to sign Kyle Anderson. Better rebounding. Won’t pass as well. Does Kyle Anderson want to sign for about 3 mill a year?

sigh...

 

[LPKingsFan]

Nah, we don't any of this. Dude can't run with Fox.

Watching those clips, it's hard to think Pop would let him go.

 

[Pizzaguy93]

Nah, we don't any of this. Dude can't run with Fox.

God I hope you’re being sarcastic. Every single clip/defensive play was made against an absolute stud hah

 

[Pizzaguy93]

You can get the same defense out of Jakarr for a fraction of the cost it would take to sign Kyle Anderson. Better rebounding. Won’t pass as well. Does Kyle Anderson want to sign for about 3 mill a year?

Stop it. Stop it now. Jakarr =/=Anderson

 

[twslam07]

You can get the same defense out of Jakarr for a fraction of the cost it would take to sign Kyle Anderson. Better rebounding. Won’t pass as well. Does Kyle Anderson want to sign for about 3 mill a year?

Even if we want to believe your statement that they have similar production on the defensive end, the rest of this is highly questionable.

Better rebounding? Per 100 possessions, Sampson averaged:

• 7.2 rebounds in 2014-15
• 8.1 rebounds in 2015-16
• 11.5 rebounds in 2017-18
• 8.2 rebounds for his career

Per 100 possessions, Anderson averaged:

• 10.3 rebounds in 2014-15
• 10.0 rebounds in 2015-16
• 10.4 rebounds in 2016-17
• 10.1 rebounds in 2017-18
• 10.2 rebounds for his career

So if you want to believe that the 22 game sample size from Jakarr in 2017-18 qualifies him as a better rebounder than Anderson, go right ahead.

As for the passing, "better passing" is a bit of an understatement when comparing the two. That's like saying Chris Paul has better passing than Bradley Beal. It's true, but good god, it's quite a drastic difference.

At the end of the day, we're trying to find a player who can play both sides of the ball. Sampson is a negative on offense (-2.1 Off On/Off, -2.13 ORPM, -0.7 ORAPM) while Anderson is neutral (+0.4 Off On/Off, -0.08 ORPM, +0.05 ORAPM). Anderson at least has offensive skills (passing, ballhandling, midrange jumper, fringe 3pt shooter, decent free throw shooter, great finisher around the rim, etc.) to go along with his great defense. If Anderson develops a more consistent 3pt shot (37%-40%), you're looking at a very good player. If he continues to hover around 33%-36% for his career, it doesn't mean he's not a good player, he just may be more useful as a 6th man at the SF/PF spot.

He's a buy low candidate who could grow into a great player.

 

[pshn80]

I chose JJ. If we used Bogdan we lose 4 inches in height n our starters. Bogdan is top quality and a natural SG so let’s leave him where he is best. Bring in Hield as ace 6th man. As yo might guess I am optimistic about JJ.

 

[jcwkings]

What's obvious is is that this IS Justin Jackson year to sink or swim and it starts tonight.

 

[206Fan]

You sign Anderson with the hopes that he can shoot about 35% with 3 attempts per game or so. Couple that with his elite defense and he's almost perfect for the position. Anderson isn't an athletic specimen but he runs just fine. All he was doing in that clip was keeping the defender on his back so he had no chance to defend the layup and that's exactly what happened. I see a high IQ play there. Similar to Doncic running the pick and roll where he keeps the guy on his back and unable to defend him.

.

He hasn't done that through his 4 years in the NBA, so what makes you guys think he'll do that now? Look at his attempts. He's a non-shooter. We're talking closer to MKG than than Garrett Temple.

I can't get behind a non-shooting wing. That's not what this team needs.

 

[dude12]

Not Justin Jackson

 

[twslam07]

Just so everyone is aware, there is a "change vote" button. It's not too late.

 

[allrightythen]

Looking at the roster right now I'd go with Bogdan. It's not his natural position but I think he's better than any other option we have right now and it would give Buddy a chance to start along side and we would be starting our best 5. With that said I'm holding on to hope that we will add someone to man that position.

 

[ESP47]

He hasn't done that through his 4 years in the NBA, so what makes you guys think he'll do that now? Look at his attempts. He's a non-shooter. We're talking closer to MKG than than Garrett Temple.

I can't get behind a non-shooting wing. That's not what this team needs.

Even though he only takes one every two games, he's still at a 34% clip for his career.

MKG only takes one about every 10 games and shoots them at a 19% clip. He's a complete non shooter. I might have to do some research to find out why Anderson doesn't shoot many because it's not like he has abysmal percentages for his career. They are a bit below average but not so far below average that I'd call him a non shooter.

 

[The_Jamal]

He hasn't done that through his 4 years in the NBA, so what makes you guys think he'll do that now? Look at his attempts. He's a non-shooter. We're talking closer to MKG than than Garrett Temple.

I can't get behind a non-shooting wing. That's not what this team needs.

Clear you have no idea about Anderson's game, so we'll just have to agree to disagree. Just a weak and lazy comparison

 

[swisshh]

They should go two bigs and three guards like NO did last year.

"But who will guard the SFs?"

There's not that many star SFs or slashing SGs in their prime right now. There are a lot of perimeter guards in their prime. And the best SFs in the league are playing a lot of small ball 4. Paul George hurts you, Durant hurts you and Lebron hurts you, but those guys move positions and hurt you no matter what.

With three guards you can more easily go 3 out 2 in or 4 out. You get better spacing.

To make it work you do need a tough nosed SG at the 3 spot. NO had JRue who is masterful on defense and will post guys up. I guess Buddy is the closest to that on the Kings, but this is where I suggest Nwaba again. (Who will D up a Jimmy Butler type or a George.)

 

[VF21]

Just so everyone is aware, there is a "change vote" button. It's not too late.

Yeah, that loophole has been closed.