Which Big Name Free Agent to Target?

[Bricklayer]

I just don't understand why Portland wasn't better than they were.

I love their team.

They were pretty good. But:

1) Aldridge is not as good as other top bigs. He's been putting up the numbers, but he's not as talented as Blake, let alone Cuz or Davis. 6'11" jumpshooter mostly.

2) injuries. They need Lopez because Aldridge isn't a rim protector. And they lost Matthews, and tried to replace him with Afflalo, who turned in a carer worst year.

3) Lillard is a bit overrated too. Some people have forgotten how to watch basketball other than ooh! highlight! moments. But he's largely a perimeter 3pt chucker. Not a great creater for teammates. Not a guy who gets on the rim.

4) Batum is a mystery. One of those guys you worry that maybe he got paid and that was enough for him.

And still, 51 games is very good in the West. But they were banged up, had guys underachieving, and their stars aren't quite at the level to just do it alone without the supporting cast clicking like a machine.

 

[LPKingsFan]

In your scenario Kings can only offer vet mins - no one worthy is coming to Sacramento for that, and you have 2 rookies and completely unreliable sophomore among your 9-man rotation. Name me the last PO team with a rookie as a starting PF or a backup PG.

I don't think, that Kings will have any rookies or sophomores among top-8 rotation on opening night.

In funky's scenario, I'd try to re-sign Miller to provide some veteran stabilization at PG.

And to answer your question, just last season the Thunder made it to the WCF playing a rookie major minutes in their big man rotation.

 

[Gilles]

Adams averaged 14.8mpg in regular season (and the guy ahead of him was Perkins, so OKC had very low bar for acceptable big men) - WCS can absolutely play same role.
Miller being a backup PG is passable, Payne is not.

 

[funkykingston]

Adams averaged 14.8mpg in regular season (and the guy ahead of him was Perkins, so OKC had very low bar for acceptable big men) - WCS can absolutely play same role.
Miller being a backup PG is passable, Payne is not.

Just to clarify, I saw my lineup as the one that might possibly be used at the end of the season. I would firmly believe that your opening day lineup (assuming Matthews is healthy) would be:

Cousins
Thompson
Gay
Matthews
Collison

I'd also think that Payne would start the season as the 3rd PG behind Collison and McCallum (and/or Miller if he could be resigned) and have to work his way into a backup role.

If Casspi is resigned then essentially you're only expecting WCS to provide the same impact as Reggie Evans and for Payne to give something along the lines of what Ray or Sessions did early in the season. Then without the chaos of last season, a full training camp with Karl, and hopefully good health I think that team could win 12-14 more games and be in the hunt for the 8th spot. And the outlook for the year after would be even better.

Because that's the big focus for me. Sure, we need the team to win and ideally make the playoffs to appease Cousins. But if we're looking at short term fixes that lead to a couple years of first round exits before heading back to the lottery I think that would be worse than another losing season but with the team set up for more future success.

 

[Gilles]

1. I don't see Payne as a special talent (it seems to me, you do). He's 2-3 years from being a reliable backup anyway - too difficult a position to learn. I look at Mccallum as a salary filler, who might get slight interest from another team, at this point. Might work as a 3rd stringer, but I much rather have 'Dre in that role next year.
2. I don't think, Stauskas is a backup SG on opening night, unless Kings were ignored by FAs/had to throw all the assets and cap space for a big, in other words things went wrong in off-season.
3. That team would still be only 3-deep in big man quality, and that would be 1 great and 2 mediocre options for next season. Need another quality big man, otherwise it would be really vulnerable to foul trouble and even minor injuries. Reggie is a bench fodder, 5th big at best, who you only go to in case of injuries or severe foul trouble.
4. Kings have to re-sign Casspi - too much value (fit in Karl's system offensively, positional versatility, very positive locker room presence, tough, if not particularly effective, defense, maybe even shooting) for expected reasonable cost.

P.S. I did this too until very recently, but people really underestimate the transformation players go through in the first couple of years after entering the league. Only the best talents can give better than average production even as sophomores. That's why with almost 100% probability guys like Jameer Nelson and Randy Foye will be more valuable next season than Payne and Stauskas.

 

[funkykingston]

Yeah, I'm higher on Payne than most. I think he'll be a much better player than Elfrid Payton who I liked last year. An all-star PG? Maybe, maybe not. But he's a strong defender (when not physically overmatched), a good passer and a very good shooter. I wouldn't take him at 6 but I think he represents really good value at the end of the lottery.

More than most I'm not fixated on the Kings making the playoffs next season. I'd love to see it, but I think the real goal has to be building a better core that can continue to grow and be more than a first round playoff loser. The Kings could trade their pick, Stauskas & Landry for Lawson and sign some vets like Foye or Koufos and likely do enough to be an 8th seed. But that's not a championship contender. It's a "just good enough to escape the lottery" team.

I don't see a path that reliably gets the Kings to the postseason next year AND sets them up to continue to improve. And while it's fun to talk about West Matthews I don't see him in a Kings uniform next season.

My only real hope is that I feel better about this team after draft night instead of worse.

 

[IfAt1st]

Because that's the big focus for me. Sure, we need the team to win and ideally make the playoffs to appease Cousins. But if we're looking at short term fixes that lead to a couple years of first round exits before heading back to the lottery I think that would be worse than another losing season but with the team set up for more future success.

I agree with your takes on the team most of the time - well-reasoned and thought-out.

I just want to point out that the Kings don't have to (and shouldn't be expected to) fix their roster problems and make a championship contender this season.

All they have to do is make a competitive team, preferably making at least 8th spot and playoffs -
because then it's so much easier to make advantageous trades and signings, when the NBA believes you know what you're doing as a franchise, you have a budding superstar, and you are going to be in the playoffs.

Let the other seasons work out on their own - all the Kings can do is become competitive this year.
Just Start Winning, and let the bandwagon nature of the NBA work for you.

 

[funkykingston]

I agree with your takes on the team most of the time - well-reasoned and thought-out.

I just want to point out that the Kings don't have to (and shouldn't be expected to) fix their roster problems and make a championship contender this season.

All they have to do is make a competitive team, preferably making at least 8th spot and playoffs -
because then it's so much easier to make advantageous trades and signings, when the NBA believes you know what you're doing as a franchise, you have a budding superstar, and you are going to be in the playoffs.

Let the other seasons work out on their own - all the Kings can do is become competitive this year.
Just Start Winning, and let the bandwagon nature of the NBA work for you.

I can't really argue with that. And there's a happy medium between signing a bunch of vets on the wrong side of 30 just to barely crack the 8th seed next season and drafting kids with high ceilings who won't help the team win next season.

I just want the Kings to improve and to have the ability to continue to improve.

 

[jcwkings]

If we draft WCS, I expect thats about it for front court this off season. Rudy was interviewed yesterday and emphasized Karl wants him at the 4 more. So I would expect DMC, WCS, JT, and Gay as your stretch 4 to be the main big rotation. Willie and JT split PF/C duties.

Wes would be an awesome signing. My questions are why would he choose us? What can we offer him? What do we have to move to make room for him.

A lineup of Collison, Wes, Gay, WCS, DMC is one of the best defensive lineups in the league. Considering the length of the front 3, Wes is one of the best defensive wings in the game and Collison is a sound defender with very good ball pressuring.

 

[lawlman91]

I agree with your takes on the team most of the time - well-reasoned and thought-out.

I just want to point out that the Kings don't have to (and shouldn't be expected to) fix their roster problems and make a championship contender this season.

All they have to do is make a competitive team, preferably making at least 8th spot and playoffs -
because then it's so much easier to make advantageous trades and signings, when the NBA believes you know what you're doing as a franchise, you have a budding superstar, and you are going to be in the playoffs.

Let the other seasons work out on their own - all the Kings can do is become competitive this year.
Just Start Winning, and let the bandwagon nature of the NBA work for you.

Along these lines, I feel like the Kings should stay put. I have good hopes for the young players on this team. DeMarcus is still young. Ideally he will stay with us until he's 30, which gives us 5 years. By that time the young players on this team will be hitting their primes, and they would have already played a while together. In fact, they would have played under the veterans in Collison, Casspi, and Gay... a group that should help us be competitive now. The young guys should help us be competitive in the near future. We haven't really seen what this team can do at full strength with Karl and a summer. After this season? I might consider shuffling. But not now; it just doesn't seem right.

 

[Gilles]

If we draft WCS, I expect thats about it for front court this off season. Rudy was interviewed yesterday and emphasized Karl wants him at the 4 more. So I would expect DMC, WCS, JT, and Gay as your stretch 4 to be the main big rotation. Willie and JT split PF/C duties.

Wes would be an awesome signing. My questions are why would he choose us? What can we offer him? What do we have to move to make room for him.

A lineup of Collison, Wes, Gay, WCS, DMC is one of the best defensive lineups in the league. Considering the length of the front 3, Wes is one of the best defensive wings in the game and Collison is a sound defender with very good ball pressuring.

I wouldn't bet on a lot of Rudy at 4 until off-season plays out. I wrote this before, and still believe in this - Kings need to create perception of having a lot of versatility going into the draft: maybe we go with Winslow or Stanimal moving Rudy to 4; Payne looks good to us too; we're taking a thorough look at Kaminski; well, maybe we go for WCS, but we are definitely not giving up anything to move up for him.
Karl tried out Rudy at 4, so it's definitely a possibility no doubt.
I also believe, if Kings sign anyone good, it will be at the start of FA process, so at this point I'm waiting till the end of the July, and will make assessments then. Too much incentive to spread BS at this point.

 

[jcwkings]

I just want it to be July 31st, so many questions of what we will look like next season. By then we should have thr jist of what the final roster will be.

 

[Gilles]

Marc Gasol apparently gave a quote to spanish paper about cold in New York, living simple, low-key life and not requiring opera (apparently a dig at Chicago), ending with "San Antonio, LA, Atlanta, I can live everywhere". That last option actually sounds very well: Atlanta has cap space to give him $20 million, Gasol would fit very well there offensively, plus he allows Horford to move to PF, plus it's east, Hawks were #1 seed this year while resting players down the stretch and he's guaranteed a starting place at ASG, until Drummond grows up, and Detroit starts winning a lot. I'm starting to think, if Marc leaves Memphis, it will be for Atlanta and not Spurs. This would in turn push Millsap and Carroll out on the market with Koufos likely staying in Memphis, but it also might make Conley available.

 

[Bricklayer]

the Globe (Boston) is reporting this morning that we could be a darkhorse candidate for Rondo, possibly on a 1yr contract to try to rebuild his rep and get paid next summer. However "reporting' might be too kind a word, as the whole rumor is in a single throwin sentence at the very bottom of a long article about silly stuff like Doc rivers being confident despite the most recent Clippers collapse, and Robert Horry thinking he should be in the HOF despite averaging 7ppg over his career.

 

[Iced Espresso]

the Globe (Boston) is reporting this morning that we could be a darkhorse candidate for Rondo, possibly on a 1yr contract to try to rebuild his rep and get paid next summer. However "reporting' might be too kind a word, as the whole rumor is in a single throwin sentence at the very bottom of a long article about silly stuff like Doc rivers being confident despite the most recent Clippers collapse, and Robert Horry thinking he should be in the HOF despite averaging 7ppg over his career.

I don't mind a 1 year experimental if we aren't going to get much anyways.

For what the source is worth.

And Horry would be on my budget deep bench role player hall of fame, but lol not the real HOF.

 

[Gilles]

Interesting study into players' overall ability to hit jumpshots: http://analyticsgame.com/nba/stat-exploration-modeling-field-goal-percentage.html

At the end of the article there's a table, that shows how effective players were in 13/14 season shooting the ball 10 feet and out from the spots, they actually did shoot (minimum 500 shots taken), compared to league-average. A lot of guys have relatively low FG%, because their shot selection is really bad.
Two names at the top, that might be relatively easily obtainable are Foye and Afflalo (must opt out first though). Their defense seems to be not good/no longer good, but these guys appear to be good shot makers. Trick would be to setup them for good shots.

 

[206Fan]

According to reports, PGs Sergio Rodriguez and Marcelinho Huertas want to come over to the NBA.

 

[Gilles]

They are paid handsomely in Europe, so will command significant salaries, and Kings can't gamble on guys, that will likely need an adjustment period. Sessions never adjusted in Sacramento. Would rather find some low-key, but reliable NBA vet to man backup PG next year.
That's also the reason Mudiay or Payne won't be Kings' draft choice: can't give the backup PG spot to a rookie, and can't afford to make your #6 (or #11) pick a third stringer.

 

[206Fan]

They are paid handsomely in Europe, so will command significant salaries, and Kings can't gamble on guys, that will likely need an adjustment period. Sessions never adjusted in Sacramento. Would rather find some low-key, but reliable NBA vet to man backup PG next year.
That's also the reason Mudiay or Payne won't be Kings' draft choice: can't give the backup PG spot to a rookie, and can't afford to make your #6 (or #11) pick a third stringer.

What type of backup PG are you interested in for the Kings? There are a lot of quality PGs this year in FA.

My favorites this year are Mo Williams and Jeremy Lin. I would heavily try to get either player depending on the price. It wouldn't surprise me if Lin would consider taking a little less to stay in Northern California and "compete" a bit with Collison for the starting job. I think he really likes the bay area.

Collison/Williams or Collison/Lin would be pretty good for our team.

 

[Gilles]

It will be all about the money.

Bench will likely have two rather limited offensively bigs, which means a player who can penetrate is almost a must at PG, so Lin is actually a good idea, depending on whether Kings can afford him. If Kings can put combination like Lin(very good playmaking/average defense/average shooting) - Foye (average playmaking/below average defense/excellent shooting) - Casspi (good playmaking/average defense/average shooting) on the bench next to two low-usage defensive-minded bigs in WCS and JT, Vlade has done his job very well.
Mo Williams would do rather well in case Collison is injured, and backup PG moves into the starting lineup. But off the bench without superior playmaker next to him, he's only passable. Can get by with him, but there should be better options available.
Stuckey can do well, since he can play both guard positions competently.

P.S. One of the few Kings advantages this offseason is that unlike PO teams, that are mostly capped, Kings can offer 2-year contracts with PO for 2nd year using their cap space, while MLE must be at least 3 years in length with 3rd possible as a PO. So even $8.5 million can maybe provide 2 decent FAs looking to re-enter the market in 2016.
Biggest problem for the Kings is of course the fact, that almost the whole league thinks they can compete for POs or at least need to get better. It might still be beneficial to Kings indirectly, if Afflalo/Matthews leave Portland, Danny Green/CoJo leave San Antonio, Aminu/Chandler leave Dallas or Kosta Koufos finds a starting place somewhere, but it certainly mess with Kings' own intentions to improve.

 

[bajaden]

They are paid handsomely in Europe, so will command significant salaries, and Kings can't gamble on guys, that will likely need an adjustment period. Sessions never adjusted in Sacramento. Would rather find some low-key, but reliable NBA vet to man backup PG next year.
That's also the reason Mudiay or Payne won't be Kings' draft choice: can't give the backup PG spot to a rookie, and can't afford to make your #6 (or #11) pick a third stringer.

I wouldn't mind having Payne for the future. I like him quite a bit, but not at six. I think when the smoke clears, he's get drafted somewhere around 12 to 14. I agree on bringing in someone from europe, even if he's played in the league before. He'll want too much money, and I don't think were desperate at the PG position. I think, from a somewhat biased point of view, that Stauskas will surprise some people this summer and in the preseason. McLemore has only two advantages on Stauskas. One year of experience, and athleticism. That's where it ends. All Nik needs to do is get his head on straight, and play with the confidence he played with at Michigan. Along with improving his skill set of course and getting stronger. You could be right, it could take another year, but he's a tough kid, and he works hard. We'll see.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

Interesting study into players' overall ability to hit jumpshots: http://analyticsgame.com/nba/stat-exploration-modeling-field-goal-percentage.html

At the end of the article there's a table, that shows how effective players were in 13/14 season shooting the ball 10 feet and out from the spots, they actually did shoot (minimum 500 shots taken), compared to league-average. A lot of guys have relatively low FG%, because their shot selection is really bad.
Two names at the top, that might be relatively easily obtainable are Foye and Afflalo (must opt out first though). Their defense seems to be not good/no longer good, but these guys appear to be good shot makers. Trick would be to setup them for good shots.

I still think we should try to get Afflalo, despite what any stats and comparison might "indicate". He played his best ball for George Karl and would bring a ton of experience and veteran savvy. I believe he'll bounce back into form in the right situation

 

[Gilles]

I still think we should try to get Afflalo, despite what any stats and comparison might "indicate". He played his best ball for George Karl and would bring a ton of experience and veteran savvy. I believe he'll bounce back into form in the right situation

Portland did too.
No one knows, what his form is right now. Afflalo really changed as a player in Orlando: from athletic finisher/shooter/defender to a guy, who wants to be featured and slacks on D (he's a scorer and must conserve energy for offense). Can you change player's mentality?

 

[bajaden]

Portland did too.
No one knows, what his form is right now. Afflalo really changed as a player in Orlando: from athletic finisher/shooter/defender to a guy, who wants to be featured and slacks on D (he's a scorer and must conserve energy for offense). Can you change player's mentality?

Probably depends on the player. Don't personally know Afflalo, so I have no idea why he changed his game. Did Orlando ask him to help pick up the offense and he simply responded? Was he just a bad fit in Portland? Has age or injury affected his game? We know that he can play defense because he has in the past. Still, probably a bit of gamble depending how much money it would take to get him.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

Portland did too.
No one knows, what his form is right now. Afflalo really changed as a player in Orlando: from athletic finisher/shooter/defender to a guy, who wants to be featured and slacks on D (he's a scorer and must conserve energy for offense). Can you change player's mentality?

Sure you can change the mentality. Get him back with the coach who he had his success with. Orlando had him playing the 3 position. He had played the 2 with Karl and most of his career. He's more effective at the 2.

We need to take a chance on a proven veteran. The question is who. I think he's a good choice, because of fit and Karl

 

[Gilles]

http://www.oregonlive.com/ironman/

Now Austin wants to hear Matthews prioritize his values. And Matthews wants his agent to understand his choice will be weighted more on fit than emotion.

He's never felt closer to a team than last season's Blazers, and he's never felt more adored or embraced as he's been by Portland fans. But he also feels ready for a larger role, one where he is an option to take a game-winning shot, where he is looked upon to exploit mismatches.

"A big part in where I land is me being a more focal point of the offense, a focal point of the team, the organization," Matthews says. "Because I feel like I've earned that. I feel like my body of work speaks for itself."

Somehow I doubt, Afflalo wants to be a role player again too. He was a quality vet among kids/scrubs in Orlando and allowed a lot of freedom. Afflalo played in a reduced role in Denver and Portland this year. Problem is that reduced role didn't include quality defense.

Rodney Stuckey got to run the team in Detroit during lean years, but when time came to step back due to improved talent and start exerting more energy on D, he didn't want to. Detroit told the story to everyone, who was willing to listen, and as a result the only money Stuckey found last summer was vet min from Pacers. Stuckey was a model citizen this season, and at the end of the season PC Bird said, he and Fogel would like very much to bring him back, but may not be able to afford to (they don't have any Bird rights and have other holes).

Stuckey got a wake up call and found new attitude. For Afflalo it would be "come here, we pay you above market price, but could you please change?!"

 

[randymoss1881]

Well I think Matthews fits quite well next to Gay/DMC than a lot if other places. Espically if we offer 11-13mill

 

[KingsFanGER]

Norris Cole is worth a closer look as a backup PG.
Bismack Biyombo should be a RFA too.
Those guys shouldn't be that expensive and are solid roleplayers.

 

[Sac.1989]

If we draft WCS, I expect thats about it for front court this off season. Rudy was interviewed yesterday and emphasized Karl wants him at the 4 more. So I would expect DMC, WCS, JT, and Gay as your stretch 4 to be the main big rotation. Willie and JT split PF/C duties.

Wes would be an awesome signing. My questions are why would he choose us? What can we offer him? What do we have to move to make room for him.

A lineup of Collison, Wes, Gay, WCS, DMC is one of the best defensive lineups in the league. Considering the length of the front 3, Wes is one of the best defensive wings in the game and Collison is a sound defender with very good ball pressuring.

That would be a thing of beauty and such a dream. Thats playoffs and beyond for me

 

[randymoss1881]

That would be a thing of beauty and such a dream. Thats playoffs and beyond for me

Agreed and is why I think getting WCS in the draft is the most important off season movers be made. Sets the table to throw a lot of money at Matthews or Danny Green.
Imagine if Ben can take tht 3rd you jump and play like he did under malone a small line up of
Collison/Ben/Wes/Gay/Boogie would be lethal.