Given the lack of assets, and in my opinion, the ceiling of this roster, I'd do my best this summer via trades and free agency to squeeze the most wins out of this team without sacrificing future 1st round draft picks.
1.) We have no 2019 draft pick. There is no incentive to lose.
2.) We have roster holes, particularly at the 3, and an overall lack of players with a PER >15 (and no player with a PER above 18) at the 1/4/5 unless certain young players make massive leaps in efficiency in year 2:
3.) De'Aaron Fox still needs to prove he's starting PG after not even playing at backup level efficiency last year. Looking at historical numbers since 2002, rookies who start out with a PER less than 12 (non-rotation quality) average out at about a PER of 14.5 in Year 4 (Rotation Player). Thus, Fox needs to capitalize on his upside by getting significantly stronger and heavier in year two, allowing him to be more efficient. A player who makes normal improvement and flattens out at a 14.5 PER is not a starting quality PG, thus he needs to make an big efficiency jump in year 2 to beat the gloomy outlook.
Given the roster, should we keep Fox, we'll need a pass-first backup PG with a good 3P shot while he continues to develop. The goal is: win games, but don't sacrifice development too much. I like Mason, but see him as a strong-shooting 3rd guard who's more score-first. I don't want to interfere with Fox's minutes/development, hence the need for a backup to address his/our rosters weaknesses. Worth a trade as I'm not seeing much I like on the market.
4.) I'll get reamed for this, but I was toying with the following "all-in" trade before we jumped with two. Now that I vehemently dislike our #2 pick - but will be rooting for him to prove me wrong - I'll bravely resurface this:
You can tear apart the trade (where I'd ask that Charlotte give us a draft pick in return for a Kemba rental/FA pitch), but the point is the concept:
- win as many games as possible during a period of limited assets and ceiling of draft picks
- bring in two players with a 20+ PER (Borderline All-Star) without sacrificing draft picks
- bring in two players who can compliment our best rookies with upside remaining (Buddy, Bogdan, maybe Skal, Giles, Jackson)
After all, would you rather put up with 1-2 years of 40 wins or 2 years of 28 wins and pulling your hair out with Fox and Bagley? Either way, we'd be back in the lottery in 2020 with likely a new, smarter front office and maybe a wiser Vivek who stays out of the way (that's another issue). Worth debating.
1.) We have no 2019 draft pick. There is no incentive to lose.
2.) We have roster holes, particularly at the 3, and an overall lack of players with a PER >15 (and no player with a PER above 18) at the 1/4/5 unless certain young players make massive leaps in efficiency in year 2:
A recap of Hollinger's PER ratings:
All-time great season 35.0+
Runaway MVP candidate 30.0-35.0
Strong MVP candidate 27.5-30.0
Weak MVP candidate 25.0-27.5
Definite All-Star 22.5-25.0
Borderline All-Star 20.0-22.5
Second offensive option 18.0-20.0
Third offensive option 16.5-18.0 (Z-Bo, Kosta and Willie)
Slightly above-average player 15.0-16.5 (Buddy)
Rotation player 13.0-15.0 (Bogdan, Skal, Frank Mason)
Non-rotation player 11.0-13.0 (Fox)
Fringe roster player 9.0-11.0 (Jackson, Temple)
Player who won't stick in the league 0-9.0 (Shumpert)
3.) De'Aaron Fox still needs to prove he's starting PG after not even playing at backup level efficiency last year. Looking at historical numbers since 2002, rookies who start out with a PER less than 12 (non-rotation quality) average out at about a PER of 14.5 in Year 4 (Rotation Player). Thus, Fox needs to capitalize on his upside by getting significantly stronger and heavier in year two, allowing him to be more efficient. A player who makes normal improvement and flattens out at a 14.5 PER is not a starting quality PG, thus he needs to make an big efficiency jump in year 2 to beat the gloomy outlook.
Given the roster, should we keep Fox, we'll need a pass-first backup PG with a good 3P shot while he continues to develop. The goal is: win games, but don't sacrifice development too much. I like Mason, but see him as a strong-shooting 3rd guard who's more score-first. I don't want to interfere with Fox's minutes/development, hence the need for a backup to address his/our rosters weaknesses. Worth a trade as I'm not seeing much I like on the market.
4.) I'll get reamed for this, but I was toying with the following "all-in" trade before we jumped with two. Now that I vehemently dislike our #2 pick - but will be rooting for him to prove me wrong - I'll bravely resurface this:
You can tear apart the trade (where I'd ask that Charlotte give us a draft pick in return for a Kemba rental/FA pitch), but the point is the concept:
- win as many games as possible during a period of limited assets and ceiling of draft picks
- bring in two players with a 20+ PER (Borderline All-Star) without sacrificing draft picks
- bring in two players who can compliment our best rookies with upside remaining (Buddy, Bogdan, maybe Skal, Giles, Jackson)
After all, would you rather put up with 1-2 years of 40 wins or 2 years of 28 wins and pulling your hair out with Fox and Bagley? Either way, we'd be back in the lottery in 2020 with likely a new, smarter front office and maybe a wiser Vivek who stays out of the way (that's another issue). Worth debating.
