Trade proposal of the century (split)

Would you do this trade?


  • Total voters
    19
#1
Given the lack of assets, and in my opinion, the ceiling of this roster, I'd do my best this summer via trades and free agency to squeeze the most wins out of this team without sacrificing future 1st round draft picks.

1.) We have no 2019 draft pick. There is no incentive to lose.

2.) We have roster holes, particularly at the 3, and an overall lack of players with a PER >15 (and no player with a PER above 18) at the 1/4/5 unless certain young players make massive leaps in efficiency in year 2:

A recap of Hollinger's PER ratings:
All-time great season 35.0+​
Runaway MVP candidate 30.0-35.0​
Strong MVP candidate 27.5-30.0​
Weak MVP candidate 25.0-27.5​
Definite All-Star 22.5-25.0​
Borderline All-Star 20.0-22.5​
Second offensive option 18.0-20.0​
Third offensive option 16.5-18.0 (Z-Bo, Kosta and Willie)
Slightly above-average player 15.0-16.5 (Buddy)
Rotation player 13.0-15.0 (Bogdan, Skal, Frank Mason)
Non-rotation player 11.0-13.0 (Fox)
Fringe roster player 9.0-11.0 (Jackson, Temple)
Player who won't stick in the league 0-9.0 (Shumpert)

3.) De'Aaron Fox still needs to prove he's starting PG after not even playing at backup level efficiency last year. Looking at historical numbers since 2002, rookies who start out with a PER less than 12 (non-rotation quality) average out at about a PER of 14.5 in Year 4 (Rotation Player). Thus, Fox needs to capitalize on his upside by getting significantly stronger and heavier in year two, allowing him to be more efficient. A player who makes normal improvement and flattens out at a 14.5 PER is not a starting quality PG, thus he needs to make an big efficiency jump in year 2 to beat the gloomy outlook.

Given the roster, should we keep Fox, we'll need a pass-first backup PG with a good 3P shot while he continues to develop. The goal is: win games, but don't sacrifice development too much. I like Mason, but see him as a strong-shooting 3rd guard who's more score-first. I don't want to interfere with Fox's minutes/development, hence the need for a backup to address his/our rosters weaknesses. Worth a trade as I'm not seeing much I like on the market.

4.) I'll get reamed for this, but I was toying with the following "all-in" trade before we jumped with two. Now that I vehemently dislike our #2 pick - but will be rooting for him to prove me wrong - I'll bravely resurface this:

Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 2.37.24 PM.png

You can tear apart the trade (where I'd ask that Charlotte give us a draft pick in return for a Kemba rental/FA pitch), but the point is the concept:
- win as many games as possible during a period of limited assets and ceiling of draft picks
- bring in two players with a 20+ PER (Borderline All-Star) without sacrificing draft picks
- bring in two players who can compliment our best rookies with upside remaining (Buddy, Bogdan, maybe Skal, Giles, Jackson)

After all, would you rather put up with 1-2 years of 40 wins or 2 years of 28 wins and pulling your hair out with Fox and Bagley? Either way, we'd be back in the lottery in 2020 with likely a new, smarter front office and maybe a wiser Vivek who stays out of the way (that's another issue). Worth debating.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#2
MOD NOTE: I moved this to its own thread as I think it might get buried otherwise and I want to see the comments! (The title is mine, not One and Done's. )
 
#7
Don't worry - I'm not 100% sold on this idea either, but exploring a point of view/concept with many different trade possibilities:
  • At what point do you maximize the value of the assets you have, and capitalize, finding the sweet spot of risk vs. return?
  • Do you buy in to the concept that you need two 20+ PER starters to win 40+ games, with playoffs at the ceiling?
    • Secondary but equally important questions: do you bet that the PER for our star rookie (Fox) will meet or beat 20 in the next two years? Or four, if at all? Do you bet that Bagley will reach a PER of 20 in the next two years, or four, if at all?
  • Do you accept the brutal facts that the cupboard is bare in terms of draft picks and 20+ PER free agents will not sign here?
Less importantly: Relative to the trade, concepts aside, do you bet you can utilize your 2019 cap space to sign Kemba to a long term deal, and risk losing (what now projects to be) a backup PG on a rookie deal? Do you think Drummond can stay healthy and consistent enough (particularly FT%) to be a moveable asset when needed?

And apologies, VF for going off-topic... I honestly wouldn't have started a thread here, but god bless the somewhat-anonymity of the internet :oops:
 
#8
I think you're a little heavy on the PER statistic. ZBo has one of the highest PERs on the team but by all accounts, the team was better basically anytime ZBo was off the floor because PER doesn't take defense into account other than blocks and steals.
 
#9
I think it’s an interesting idea in terms of discussion amongst fans and whether PER ratings actually equate to wins and if they are sustainable long term. That said this trade makes me want to cry :)
 
#17
You bought gold at 1300 an oz. It dipped to 1140. Speculation is it will rise, and above 1300. But you sell it @ 900 for platinum because right now platinum is worth more even though it is expected to fall. Do you understand?
 
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#22
Wouldn't we just be better off using our whole cap space on Dwight Howard and bringing back Isaiah Thomas without giving up anything? (Would not do what I'm suggesting either)