The starting lineup - looking at what the statistics tell us

[funkykingston]

I have pretty specific views of what the starting lineup of the Kings should be. But rather than look for evidence to support my view, I wanted to take an objective and statistical look at what would be best for this team in terms of both what the starting lineup should be and what possible moves the front office should be looking at.

First, the numbers:

Stats are drawn primarily from here:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/team/sacramento-kings/stats
And here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2012.html

Team Stats:

As a team the Kings only rank in the top ten in a few stats. Fast break points per game (5th), Points in the paint per game (4th), Rebounds/game (8th), Offensive Rebounds per game (1st), 4th Q points/game (6th), FTM per game (8th) and the dubious statistic of FGA per game (2nd).

As expected, they are in the bottom of the league in most categories to the extent that I don't want to take the time to list all the ones in which they are in the bottom third of the league. But I will take a look at a few of the worst cases.

30th in opponents scoring per game
29th in opponent rebounds per game
30th in both assists per game AND opponents assists per game
30th in both FG% per game and 2pt FG% per game
25th in 3pt FG% per game
30th per game in opponent fast break points AND points in the paint
30th in opponent shooting percentage
29th in opponent scoring in the 1st, 2nd AND 3rd quarters
27th in the league in blocks

I will say that I expected the Kings to be among the worst in the league in terms of turnovers and personal fouls but they were average or slightly above in these categories.

Individual Stats:

I am ignoring Whiteside and Honeycutt because of their small sample size and listing how the Kings rank in a few categories:

PER
Cousins
Thomas
Evans
Thornton
Thompson
Greene
Fredette
Hickson
Garcia
Hayes
Salmons
Outlaw

True Shooting Percentage:
Thomas
Thompson
Thorton
Greene
Cousins
Fredette
Evans
Garcia
Hickson
Salmons
Hayes
Outlaw

Assist percentage (field goals assisted by the player when on the floor)
Evans
Thomas
Fredette
Thornton
Salmons
Hayes
Greene
Thompson
Cousins
Garcia
Hickson
Outlaw

Worth noting here that Evans is at 26.7%, Thomas at 26.1%, then a dropoff to Fredette at 16.4% with everyone else at 10% or lower.

FG%
Thompson (.522)
Cousins (.442)
Greene (.415).
Thornton (.413)
Evans (.413)
Thomas (.408)
Hayes (.385)
Hickson (.375)
Fredette (.374)
Salmons (.361)
Garcia (.341)
Outlaw (.289)

3P%
Fredette (.373)
Thomas (.370)
Thornton (.353)
Garcia (.315)
Salmons (.272)
Evans (.243)
Greene (.231)
Outlaw (.160)

with the others not taking enough to bother listing

FGA per 36 minutes

Cousins
Thornton
Evans
Freddette
Thomas
Outlaw
Greene
Salmons
Thompson
Garcia
Hickson
Hayes

And there are a few of the statistical breakdowns. What do you see? What other stats do you think are worth looking at closely? I'll give my thoughts in my next post.

 

[Kingster]

I have pretty specific views of what the starting lineup of the Kings should be. But rather than look for evidence to support my view, I wanted to take an objective and statistical look at what would be best for this team in terms of both what the starting lineup should be and what possible moves the front office should be looking at.

First, the numbers:

Stats are drawn primarily from here:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/team/sacramento-kings/stats
And here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2012.html

Team Stats:

As a team the Kings only rank in the top ten in a few stats. Fast break points per game (5th), Points in the paint per game (4th), Rebounds/game (8th), Offensive Rebounds per game (1st), 4th Q points/game (6th), FTM per game (8th) and the dubious statistic of FGA per game (2nd).

As expected, they are in the bottom of the league in most categories to the extent that I don't want to take the time to list all the ones in which they are in the bottom third of the league. But I will take a look at a few of the worst cases.

30th in opponents scoring per game
29th in opponent rebounds per game
30th in both assists per game AND opponents assists per game
30th in both FG% per game and 2pt FG% per game
25th in 3pt FG% per game
30th per game in opponent fast break points AND points in the paint
30th in opponent shooting percentage
29th in opponent scoring in the 1st, 2nd AND 3rd quarters
27th in the league in blocks

I will say that I expected the Kings to be among the worst in the league in terms of turnovers and personal fouls but they were average or slightly above in these categories.

Individual Stats:

I am ignoring Whiteside and Honeycutt because of their small sample size and listing how the Kings rank in a few categories:

PER
Cousins
Thomas
Evans
Thornton
Thompson
Greene
Fredette
Hickson
Garcia
Hayes
Salmons
Outlaw

True Shooting Percentage:
Thomas
Thompson
Thorton
Greene
Cousins
Fredette
Evans
Garcia
Hickson
Salmons
Hayes
Outlaw

Assist percentage (field goals assisted by the player when on the floor)
Evans
Thomas
Fredette
Thornton
Salmons
Hayes
Greene
Thompson
Cousins
Garcia
Hickson
Outlaw

Worth noting here that Evans is at 26.7%, Thomas at 26.1%, then a dropoff to Fredette at 16.4% with everyone else at 10% or lower.

FG%
Thompson (.522)
Cousins (.442)
Greene (.415).
Thornton (.413)
Evans (.413)
Thomas (.408)
Hayes (.385)
Hickson (.375)
Fredette (.374)
Salmons (.361)
Garcia (.341)
Outlaw (.289)

3P%
Fredette (.373)
Thomas (.370)
Thornton (.353)
Garcia (.315)
Salmons (.272)
Evans (.243)
Greene (.231)
Outlaw (.160)

with the others not taking enough to bother listing

FGA per 36 minutes

Cousins
Thornton
Evans
Freddette
Thomas
Outlaw
Greene
Salmons
Thompson
Garcia
Hickson
Hayes

And there are a few of the statistical breakdowns. What do you see? What other stats do you think are worth looking at closely? I'll give my thoughts in my next post.

Thanks for the stats. We don't have enough sample size yet, but I'd like to see the difference in stats after about 7 games or so with the new lineup, and then compare with the old lineup. That is, if the lineup remains the same for the next 7 games...

 

[funkykingston]

What jumps out at me is that the statistics alone tell you that this is a team that plays a ragged and fast paced style. Lots of shots but with a low percentage and very few assists while both scoring and giving up a lot of fast break points.

My first thought in seeing the points in the paint and opponent FG% numbers was that it was a clear indication that the team missed Dalembert. Yet, the Kings were only 29th in opponents points in the paint last year and opponents actually had a higher FG% in 2010. And the team's blocks have only dipped 0.5 per game.

Looking at the teams that DO lead the league in opponents FG% and points in the paint (veteran, contending teams like the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Heat and Magic) I'm starting to think it's much more a function of the Kings youth and inexperience than a lack of any particular player or specific skill sets.

Salmons doesn't grade out as badly as I expected. He's relatively careful with the ball, not one of the worst in terms of assists and an inconsistent but sometimes pretty good defender. That said, he's an atrocious shooter, has a very low PER, doesn't provide veteran leadership and in general simply doesn't do anything to help this team win.

The stats bear out the reasons for Isiah Thomas being in the starting lineup. He is an efficient scorer, provides badly needed ball handling and assists and has the second best 3pt% on the team. Not saying much since this team is atrocious in terms of shooting in general, but still.

The poor rebounding also validates Thompson's insertion into the lineup. Hickson is actually a slightly better rebounder per 36 minutes but Thompson shoots less and at a much higher percentage. He also has a significantly higher PER and better hands (2.3 turnovers per 36 minutes for Hickson vs 1.5 for Thompson).

The Kings still need additional rebounding. I don't expect that the lineup change will affect the team average much because Isiah Thomas averages as many rebounds (actually slightly higher 4.1 vs 4.0 per 36 mins) per minute as Salmons. The weakest contributor in the starting lineup is actually Thornton.

My preference for a while has been to start Thomas, Evans, Greene, Thompson and Cousins. The stats bear this out as a good idea though not quite as strongly as I'd hoped. Salmons is actually shooting better from distance than Greene (.272 vs .231) though Donte's overall percentage is much higher (.415 vs .361). But per 36 Donte adds 3 more rebounds and half a block more than John though he does (surprisingly) average half as many assists per 36.

Still, when you consider Greene's size, defense and style of play (less desire to have the ball in his hands than Salmons) I think it's pretty obvious that he'd be a better fit than John.

But with the change in the lineup I suppose the real question is whether it would be better to start Donte or Thorton. The pros are that you aren't forcing Tyreke to defend a SF or go against one offensively as well as more size, better defense and rebounding. Additionally you have a player that demands less touches on offense. The cons are that you lose ball handling, shooting and scoring in the starting lineup for a team that is woeful in all of those categories.

 

[Kingster]

What jumps out at me is that the statistics alone tell you that this is a team that plays a ragged and fast paced style. Lots of shots but with a low percentage and very few assists while both scoring and giving up a lot of fast break points.

My first thought in seeing the points in the paint and opponent FG% numbers was that it was a clear indication that the team missed Dalembert. Yet, the Kings were only 29th in opponents points in the paint last year and opponents actually had a higher FG% in 2010. And the team's blocks have only dipped 0.5 per game.

Looking at the teams that DO lead the league in opponents FG% and points in the paint (veteran, contending teams like the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Heat and Magic) I'm starting to think it's much more a function of the Kings youth and inexperience than a lack of any particular player or specific skill sets.

Salmons doesn't grade out as badly as I expected. He's relatively careful with the ball, not one of the worst in terms of assists and an inconsistent but sometimes pretty good defender. That said, he's an atrocious shooter, has a very low PER, doesn't provide veteran leadership and in general simply doesn't do anything to help this team win.

The stats bear out the reasons for Isiah Thomas being in the starting lineup. He is an efficient scorer, provides badly needed ball handling and assists and has the second best 3pt% on the team. Not saying much since this team is atrocious in terms of shooting in general, but still.

The poor rebounding also validates Thompson's insertion into the lineup. Hickson is actually a slightly better rebounder per 36 minutes but Thompson shoots less and at a much higher percentage. He also has a significantly higher PER and better hands (2.3 turnovers per 36 minutes for Hickson vs 1.5 for Thompson).

The Kings still need additional rebounding. I don't expect that the lineup change will affect the team average much because Isiah Thomas averages as many rebounds (actually slightly higher 4.1 vs 4.0 per 36 mins) per minute as Salmons. The weakest contributor in the starting lineup is actually Thornton.

My preference for a while has been to start Thomas, Evans, Greene, Thompson and Cousins. The stats bear this out as a good idea though not quite as strongly as I'd hoped. Salmons is actually shooting better from distance than Greene (.272 vs .231) though Donte's overall percentage is much higher (.415 vs .361). But per 36 Donte adds 3 more rebounds and half a block more than John though he does (surprisingly) average half as many assists per 36.

Still, when you consider Greene's size, defense and style of play (less desire to have the ball in his hands than Salmons) I think it's pretty obvious that he'd be a better fit than John.

But with the change in the lineup I suppose the real question is whether it would be better to start Donte or Thorton. The pros are that you aren't forcing Tyreke to defend a SF or go against one offensively as well as more size, better defense and rebounding. Additionally you have a player that demands less touches on offense. The cons are that you lose ball handling, shooting and scoring in the starting lineup for a team that is woeful in all of those categories.

My observations in watching the games support your interpretation of the stats. As others have said, the Kings are having opposing players go by them, not over them. The switching is horrible. The rotations are poor. Maybe the new lineup has something to do with it, but size isn't the primary factor - inexperience probably is. With a new lineup there has to be different defensive assignments. So far, the players aren't doing their assignments on a consistent basis. I also wonder whether Smart hasn't fallen in love with the zone way too much. The zone is ok as a change-up, but not as the ordinary course of business. I think it breeds laziness and lack of accountability if used for too long. I'd like to see more pressure man to man. If you're going to have a smaller, quicker lineup, then use the quickness to your advantage and pressure the ball rather than sit back passively and wait for them to attack.
They should try some double teams every once in a while. If their defense gets predictable it's just not going to be as it could be without the element of surprise.

 

[Kingster]

What jumps out at me is that the statistics alone tell you that this is a team that plays a ragged and fast paced style. Lots of shots but with a low percentage and very few assists while both scoring and giving up a lot of fast break points.

My first thought in seeing the points in the paint and opponent FG% numbers was that it was a clear indication that the team missed Dalembert. Yet, the Kings were only 29th in opponents points in the paint last year and opponents actually had a higher FG% in 2010. And the team's blocks have only dipped 0.5 per game.

Looking at the teams that DO lead the league in opponents FG% and points in the paint (veteran, contending teams like the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Heat and Magic) I'm starting to think it's much more a function of the Kings youth and inexperience than a lack of any particular player or specific skill sets.

Salmons doesn't grade out as badly as I expected. He's relatively careful with the ball, not one of the worst in terms of assists and an inconsistent but sometimes pretty good defender. That said, he's an atrocious shooter, has a very low PER, doesn't provide veteran leadership and in general simply doesn't do anything to help this team win.

The stats bear out the reasons for Isiah Thomas being in the starting lineup. He is an efficient scorer, provides badly needed ball handling and assists and has the second best 3pt% on the team. Not saying much since this team is atrocious in terms of shooting in general, but still.

The poor rebounding also validates Thompson's insertion into the lineup. Hickson is actually a slightly better rebounder per 36 minutes but Thompson shoots less and at a much higher percentage. He also has a significantly higher PER and better hands (2.3 turnovers per 36 minutes for Hickson vs 1.5 for Thompson).

The Kings still need additional rebounding. I don't expect that the lineup change will affect the team average much because Isiah Thomas averages as many rebounds (actually slightly higher 4.1 vs 4.0 per 36 mins) per minute as Salmons. The weakest contributor in the starting lineup is actually Thornton.

My preference for a while has been to start Thomas, Evans, Greene, Thompson and Cousins. The stats bear this out as a good idea though not quite as strongly as I'd hoped. Salmons is actually shooting better from distance than Greene (.272 vs .231) though Donte's overall percentage is much higher (.415 vs .361). But per 36 Donte adds 3 more rebounds and half a block more than John though he does (surprisingly) average half as many assists per 36.

Still, when you consider Greene's size, defense and style of play (less desire to have the ball in his hands than Salmons) I think it's pretty obvious that he'd be a better fit than John.

But with the change in the lineup I suppose the real question is whether it would be better to start Donte or Thorton. The pros are that you aren't forcing Tyreke to defend a SF or go against one offensively as well as more size, better defense and rebounding. Additionally you have a player that demands less touches on offense. The cons are that you lose ball handling, shooting and scoring in the starting lineup for a team that is woeful in all of those categories.

My observations in watching the games support your interpretation of the stats. As others have said, the Kings are having opposing players go by them, not over them. The switching is horrible. The rotations are poor. Maybe the new lineup has something to do with it, but size isn't the primary factor - inexperience probably is. With a new lineup there has to be different defensive assignments. So far, the players aren't doing their assignments on a consistent basis. I also wonder whether Smart hasn't fallen in love with the zone way too much. The zone is ok as a change-up, but not as the ordinary course of business. I think it breeds laziness and lack of accountability if used for too long. I'd like to see more pressure man to man. If you're going to have a smaller, quicker lineup, then use the quickness to your advantage and pressure the ball rather than sit back passively and wait for them to attack.
They should try some double teams every once in a while. If their defense gets predictable it's just not going to be as it could be without the element of surprise.

 

[funkykingston]

Interestingly Oklahoma City is 24th in the league in points in the paint despite the presence of Perkins, Ibaka and Collison. Big bodied defender, athletic shotblocker and rugged, charge taking big off the bench. It should be a recipe for a stout defense in the half court and especially in the paint and yet they are only 0.1 ppg ahead of Utah, 0.2 ppg ahead of Washington and allow 1 more ppg in the paint than the Warriors.

And yet they ARE 11th in the league in opponents fast break points (12.9 per game) whereas the Kings are dead last at 17.9 ppg. So in the Thunder's case it isn't even the fast pace of the game or ragged transition play that is pushing up their points in the paint allowed. I think they have a perfect formula TO be a team with a great interior/help defense, but more and more I realize that team defense is about experience and familiarity much more than simply individual defensive prowess.

 

[macadocious]

Don't want to start a thread, so I'll just put this here, but anyone listed to 1140 yesterday afternoon?

Where was Grant or Jason and who were those clowns from Southern Ca? I only listen for about a segment, but it seemed odd to me, especially since the segment I listened to had them talking about how Seattle should get the Kings.

 

[bluntsnbball]

The main conclusion that i draw from this is that we are a terrible defensive team. We also need to increase out fg % and we definitely need more 3 pt shooters, but it looks like we are mainly suffering for an inability to play D which is no surprise to me. The defensive inability on this team scares me.

I'm probably not quite as observant as some of you guys on here b/c i tend to follow the ball as opposed to watching individual players, but would somebody explain to me where our players are lacking in D? I mean, tyreke is a solid above average defender. I honestly feel like IT is a decent defender, he wont lock guys down but he is pesky as hell. And i mean, why the hell did we trade for salmons? i thought that trade was mainly b/c of his D and he has looked like he's lost his defensive step.

Where i'm really unobservant is our D in the paint. Why is it that cousins isnt a good defender? i know he doesnt get off the floor very high and he is very foul prone. But he is a big, big body and look at Hayes, hes not even half the player that cousins is but he knows how to use his weight to hold position. How is it that Cousins has not learned to do this yet?

And JT, again i havent payed close enough attention to his D, is he just slow or what?

Or are our defensive struggles mainly a product of the line ups and the lack of rotation, etc? Thornton just seems to get lost on D and forget where his man is, from what ive noticed.

Did anyone read that quote from Hayes last week? i read on hoopshype that he said "no one is talking. cut the crowd noise and you will hear silence from our team on the offensive end" or something like that. Is the poor D just a lack of communication? Bottom line, we need D. With our fast break points, we could win a lot more games if we can get more stops on the defensive end.

 

[ppine]

Bluntsnbball is right about the defense. It is obvious without looking at stats. Opposing teams have streaks against us that look like lay-up drills, and many shots from beyond 18 ft are not contested. The Kings tend to play defense just like their offense- one on one. Our defenders are okay, but they often don't buy into the team defense concept. The zone seems to work at times and may carry over to man d. A good interior passing team can riddle the Kings inside. It takes coaching, time and a lot of desire to improve the defense, but that is what will eventually make the difference in more wins.

 

[funkykingston]

I'm probably not quite as observant as some of you guys on here b/c i tend to follow the ball as opposed to watching individual players, but would somebody explain to me where our players are lacking in D? I mean, tyreke is a solid above average defender. I honestly feel like IT is a decent defender, he wont lock guys down but he is pesky as hell. And i mean, why the hell did we trade for salmons? i thought that trade was mainly b/c of his D and he has looked like he's lost his defensive step.

Where i'm really unobservant is our D in the paint. Why is it that cousins isnt a good defender? i know he doesnt get off the floor very high and he is very foul prone. But he is a big, big body and look at Hayes, hes not even half the player that cousins is but he knows how to use his weight to hold position. How is it that Cousins has not learned to do this yet?

And JT, again i havent payed close enough attention to his D, is he just slow or what?

Or are our defensive struggles mainly a product of the line ups and the lack of rotation, etc? Thornton just seems to get lost on D and forget where his man is, from what ive noticed.

Did anyone read that quote from Hayes last week? i read on hoopshype that he said "no one is talking. cut the crowd noise and you will hear silence from our team on the offensive end" or something like that. Is the poor D just a lack of communication? Bottom line, we need D. With our fast break points, we could win a lot more games if we can get more stops on the defensive end.

You always want a great individual/one-on-one defender or two on your team. A franchise center who anchors the whole defense AND can hold position and make shots tough for his own man for instance. Olajuwon, Duncan, young Shaq etc. Or a wing like Bruce Bowen or Scottie Pippen who can lock onto a SF, SG or even PG and frustrate them by contesting everything. Those guys are important. If you watched last night's Laker/Thunder game Harden was basically not playing any sort of team defense (almost looked like a Box and 1 at times) and instead was solely focused on face guarding Kobe, denying him the ball and making things as hard as possible, sometimes with the help of a double team but always with extreme individual effort. You WANT those guys that can really get after the other team's best scorer.

But really, defense as a whole is always about TEAM defense. Basically, it comes down to fundamentals. In the simplest sense a defender should be in the correct position, always have keep both his man and the ball in his field of view, know when he needs to rotate to help and know (with confidence) where the next rotation will come from to help him if he leaves his man.

And communication is a huge part of this. Teams that have played together for a long time may know each others tendencies so well that they don't have to talk as much but young and inexperienced teams should be communicating on every rotation.

Looking at a basic pick and roll using Chris Paul (defended by Isiah Thomas) and Blake Griffin (defended by Jason Thompson). If Paul has the ball and Griffin sets a screen on Isiah Thomas, it is Thompson's job to call that screen out as it is being set. Then a decision must be made. Do they switch the pick and have Thompson guard Paul and Thomas guard Griffin? Does Thomas slip through the pick and Thompson remain on Griffin? Does Thompson "show" on the pick, meaning that he jumps out to guard Paul briefly and then quickly gets back on Griffin? Does Thomas go under the pick gambling that Paul can't hit the outside shot he'll be open for?

Which decision is made depends on the team's gameplan (assuming the player's stick to it), understanding the tendencies of the two offensive players involved and how they are playing in this game and on the communication between the defenders.

Let's say that in this instance Thompson shows on the pick to keep Paul from hitting an outside shot. This leaves Griffin free to roll to the basket and attack the rim if Paul can deliver the ball. Cousins must recognize this scenario and be ready to rotate off his man (DeAndre Jordan) to stop Griffin. And Tyreke (or whoever is on the wing on the strong side) must be ready to drop down and cut off the passing lane so that Jordan isn't wide open. And rotations continue with someone going out to challenge Tyreke's man if he catches the ball outside etc etc.

To my eyes the Kings are inconsistent as individual defenders but more importantly they are poor team defenders. They don't communicate or clearly know their assignments in different situations and instead of forcing the offense to have great ball movement to get open shots, they often make fundamental mistakes by being out of position, misreading the situation, or just not rotating and give up easy baskets.

If it's not something you've watched before it can sound more complicated than it is, but basically basketball is just having proper reactions to what the offense does. Tape a Kings game and watch it as normal. Then on the replay on halfcourt possesions when you know who ends up scoring, watch the whole play. Did the scorer get a screen? If so, how did the defense react? Did the scorer blow by his man for a layup or dunk? Then watch to see who was in the area that could have rotated to stop the ball and didn't. Pretty soon it becomes obvious how the defense SHOULD have reacted and easy to tell whether they did the right thing or not. And sometimes you'll watch a play and realize that the defense did a good job and offense scored anyway. But it's the very obvious breakdowns and blown assignments that are the hallmark of bad teams that give up lots of easy baskets.

 

[Glenn]

On this team, it takes communication. Part of our problem is that we have some players who are relatively mute like Reke and Salmons. Not even sure of JT says much. This is where Hayes can really help but he needs court time. Cuz can be verbal but does he really know what is going on defensively? It'll take time along with almost everything else on this team. It takes players getting to know each other.

 

[Arkitect]

Defense is more difficult to teach at an NBA level than offense. Almost every player coming into the NBA knows how to play offense. Many never really had to focus on the defensive side of the ball. That is why most good defensive players do not develop into first or second team all-NBA defensive players until 4-5 years of playing in the NBA. No one in our starting lineup is even off their rookie contract. That is why we are so terrible defensively.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

On this team, it takes communication. Part of our problem is that we have some players who are relatively mute like Reke and Salmons. Not even sure of JT says much. This is where Hayes can really help but he needs court time. Cuz can be verbal but does he really know what is going on defensively? It'll take time along with almost everything else on this team. It takes players getting to know each other.

Actually, this team has done a fantastic of communicating on defense. Unfortunately, the three major defensive plays were named "Ref, You're Terrible", "You Must Be Blind", and "He's Fouling Me Every Time Down The Floor", and there have been some unintended consequences to the naming scheme.

 

[Lockehead]

What jumps out at me is Jimmer's 3 point %. 37.5% while given spot up minutes.

 

[slugking50]

From 1998 till 2000 I recall Lakers poster on the old ESPN MB's(When it was still good) used to call the Kings defense swiss cheese because it had so many holes in it. It took 2 trades and some time but we became the best defense in the league in 2002 and 2003.

 

[ESP47]

Donte Greene's .415 FG% should not be 3rd best on the team. That is ridiculous. I just took a shot in the dark and checked the 2002 Kings stats. Donte would have been 12th on that team behind a 19 year old Gerald Wallace and Mateen Cleaves.

 

[Glenn]

Donte Greene's .415 FG% should not be 3rd best on the team. That is ridiculous. I just took a shot in the dark and checked the 2002 Kings stats. Donte would have been 12th on that team behind a 19 year old Gerald Wallace and Mateen Cleaves.

And who are the two ahead of him: Cuz and JT. Our shooters are not shooting.

 

[Bricklayer]

Donte Greene's .415 FG% should not be 3rd best on the team. That is ridiculous. I just took a shot in the dark and checked the 2002 Kings stats. Donte would have been 12th on that team behind a 19 year old Gerald Wallace and Mateen Cleaves.

Yeah, still have my own stats thread to do, but don't want to trample on this one, and this seems a good place to post these. Bad as our season long numbers have been, they have consistently gotten better. Here at the stats for the past month (that period chosen simply because yahoo automatically compiles those for you in fantasy ball):

Kings in the Last Month

Big Three:
MThort: 37.5min 20.3pts (.434 .854) 3.6reb 2.3ast 1.6stl 0.4blk 1.8TO
TEvans: 37.4min 19.2pts (.439 .885) 5.7reb 6.3ast 1.6stl 0.6blk 3.0TO
DCousi: 31.0min 18.6reb (.423 .779) 11.8reb 1.3ast 1.4stl 0.9blk 2.8TO

Big Two Roleplayers:
IThom: 24.1min 11.7pts (.480 .800) 2.9reb 3.8ast 0.5stl 0.1blk 1.3TO
JThom: 28.6min 9.2pts (.486 .639) 8.1reb 1.1ast 0.3stl 0.7blk 1.2TO

SUE FOR NON-SUPPORT:
JSalm: 28.3min 7.1pts (.389 .500) 3.2reb 1.8ast 0.8stl 0.2blk 0.7TO
JFrede: 16.5min 7.1pts (.407 .917) 0.8reb 1.8ast 0.6stl 0.0blk 1.1TO
DGren: 13.4min 5.4pts (.395 .975) 2.3reb 0.4ast 0.7stl 0.3blk 0.8TO
FGarci: 13.2min 3.6pts (.344 .750) 1.8reb 0.6ast 0.9stl 0.4blk 0.8TO
TOutlaw: 7.1min 3.0pts (.400 .500) 1.2reb 0.2ast 0.0stl 0.0blk 0.4TO
JJHick: 13.6min 2.9pts (.366 .615) 3.6reb 0.6ast 0.4stl 0.6blk 0.5TO
Hayes: 17.4min 2.4pts (.378 .556) 3.5reb 0.9ast 0.9stl 0.5blk 0.7TO

Our big three are putting up winning all around numbers...and just need to be a little more efficient. Our two roleplayers who belong inth NBA are playing efficient support. It is again, the entire rest of the squad which has just reached are you kidding me level. We play 5 on 12 every night. That, and the defense, is the source of our woes. Not our main guys.

 

[bajaden]

My observations in watching the games support your interpretation of the stats. As others have said, the Kings are having opposing players go by them, not over them. The switching is horrible. The rotations are poor. Maybe the new lineup has something to do with it, but size isn't the primary factor - inexperience probably is. With a new lineup there has to be different defensive assignments. So far, the players aren't doing their assignments on a consistent basis. I also wonder whether Smart hasn't fallen in love with the zone way too much. The zone is ok as a change-up, but not as the ordinary course of business. I think it breeds laziness and lack of accountability if used for too long. I'd like to see more pressure man to man. If you're going to have a smaller, quicker lineup, then use the quickness to your advantage and pressure the ball rather than sit back passively and wait for them to attack.
They should try some double teams every once in a while. If their defense gets predictable it's just not going to be as it could be without the element of surprise.

I think the zone can be very effective against the right matchups. It's designed to keep people out of the paint. But if your playing a good outside shooting team that can pass the ball, then you can get your head handed to you. I see nothing wrong with playing the zone, until you start getting killed by the outside shot. At that point, you'd better apply more pressure on the perimiter. I don't know about breeding laziness. Your either a competitive player or you not when you get to this level. The thing I dislike about the zone is that its a breeding ground for bad matchups. You could easily end up with IT trying to guard Lebron. Thats less likely to happen in man to man if players re-rotate properly, which of course is asking a lot on the Kings.

I think the stats simply bear out what most of us knew to begin with. We have some pieces that don't fit properly, and our youth and inexperience is hurting us quite a bit. The main thing that bothers me is how poor were shooting. I mean its not just poor, its dismal. Good shooting can make up for a lot of mistakes. Right now, we seem to have the worse of both worlds.

 

[bajaden]

Defense is more difficult to teach at an NBA level than offense. Almost every player coming into the NBA knows how to play offense. Many never really had to focus on the defensive side of the ball. That is why most good defensive players do not develop into first or second team all-NBA defensive players until 4-5 years of playing in the NBA. No one in our starting lineup is even off their rookie contract. That is why we are so terrible defensively.

I think its important to remember the old saying, "For every action, there is a reaction." A lot of the Kings defensive breakdowns are started by the teams poor offense. Too many times someone will shoot a three without anyone under the basket to rebound. How many times have you seen Cousins and or Thompson running to get under the basket and the ball is going back the other way already. Poor rebounding will also hurt you defensively. There was a period when Hayes and Hickson were consistently on the floor together. Just about everytime, we got killed on the defensive boards. And lets face it, poor shooting overall hurts your overall defense. Its a lot harder for the other team to run on a made basket.

Once the Kings are into a halfcourt defensive set, I would bet you that our defensive stats are much better. I haven't checked them, but I know the Kings get killed on fast break points consistently. Cousins still has much to learn in man defense under the basket, but he has improved, and his fouls have gone down a little. But Cuz is very good at stopping the ball in the key regardless of who has the ball. He defends the pick and roll fairly well. Thompsons weakness on defense is in the post. Once again, he has improved, but when faced with a smaller quicker player, he struggles down low. However, away from the basket and against the same player, he's much better. He's better at denying the ball and has fairly quick feet in protecting the baseline. Too many times he does what he's suspossed to do by turning his man into key, and there's no one there to help.

There are a lot times in team defense, where the man that looks like the culprit is the one that did what he was susposed to do, but his teammate doesn't, and so he left holding the bag. There was one game not long ago where Cousins was forced to leave his man to stop the ball, and no one picked up his man, who was last seen dunking the ball behind Cousins back. This happened at least 4 times in the game. If all five players don't do what they're susposed to do, then the entire thing fails.

 

[Kingster]

I think the zone can be very effective against the right matchups. It's designed to keep people out of the paint. But if your playing a good outside shooting team that can pass the ball, then you can get your head handed to you. I see nothing wrong with playing the zone, until you start getting killed by the outside shot. At that point, you'd better apply more pressure on the perimiter. I don't know about breeding laziness. Your either a competitive player or you not when you get to this level. The thing I dislike about the zone is that its a breeding ground for bad matchups. You could easily end up with IT trying to guard Lebron. Thats less likely to happen in man to man if players re-rotate properly, which of course is asking a lot on the Kings.

I think the stats simply bear out what most of us knew to begin with. We have some pieces that don't fit properly, and our youth and inexperience is hurting us quite a bit. The main thing that bothers me is how poor were shooting. I mean its not just poor, its dismal. Good shooting can make up for a lot of mistakes. Right now, we seem to have the worse of both worlds.

You either want to play D or you don't. And if you don't, a zone is a nice place to hide. It's less accountable because you're guarding an amorphous area and you can always blame it on the other guy. With man to man it's a yes/no, black/white situation. Either you guarded the guy you were supposed to or you didn't. Also, you're never going to excel in the playoffs with a zone, so you might as well focus on man D for the time (hopefully) you get in the playoffs. I like the zone as a change-up, not the bread and butter. Another reason I don't want to see too much of it is if you don't play mostly man-to-man you're never going to get better at it. And this team needs to get a lot better at it.

 

[ParniValjak]

Yeah, still have my own stats thread to do, but don't want to trample on this one, and this seems a good place to post these. Bad as our season long numbers have been, they have consistently gotten better. Here at the stats for the past month (that period chosen simply because yahoo automatically compiles those for you in fantasy ball):

Kings in the Last Month

Big Three:
MThort: 37.5min 20.3pts (.434 .854) 3.6reb 2.3ast 1.6stl 0.4blk 1.8TO
TEvans: 37.4min 19.2pts (.439 .885) 5.7reb 6.3ast 1.6stl 0.6blk 3.0TO
DCousi: 31.0min 18.6reb (.423 .779) 11.8reb 1.3ast 1.4stl 0.9blk 2.8TO

Big Two Roleplayers:
IThom: 24.1min 11.7pts (.480 .800) 2.9reb 3.8ast 0.5stl 0.1blk 1.3TO
JThom: 28.6min 9.2pts (.486 .639) 8.1reb 1.1ast 0.3stl 0.7blk 1.2TO

SUE FOR NON-SUPPORT:
JSalm: 28.3min 7.1pts (.389 .500) 3.2reb 1.8ast 0.8stl 0.2blk 0.7TO
JFrede: 16.5min 7.1pts (.407 .917) 0.8reb 1.8ast 0.6stl 0.0blk 1.1TO
DGren: 13.4min 5.4pts (.395 .975) 2.3reb 0.4ast 0.7stl 0.3blk 0.8TO
FGarci: 13.2min 3.6pts (.344 .750) 1.8reb 0.6ast 0.9stl 0.4blk 0.8TO
TOutlaw: 7.1min 3.0pts (.400 .500) 1.2reb 0.2ast 0.0stl 0.0blk 0.4TO
JJHick: 13.6min 2.9pts (.366 .615) 3.6reb 0.6ast 0.4stl 0.6blk 0.5TO
Hayes: 17.4min 2.4pts (.378 .556) 3.5reb 0.9ast 0.9stl 0.5blk 0.7TO

Our big three are putting up winning all around numbers...and just need to be a little more efficient. Our two roleplayers who belong inth NBA are playing efficient support. It is again, the entire rest of the squad which has just reached are you kidding me level. We play 5 on 12 every night. That, and the defense, is the source of our woes. Not our main guys.

Man that's some REALLY ugly numbers from our bench!. Even scarier when you consider that FG% wise, our best 2 shooters are not in the regular rotation.

You are right in saying the big 3 are getting it done and ideally we would want them to do it more efficiently. Our 2 role players in the starting 5 are playing their role and absolutely deserve to be there but the rest of the gang is just one big MEH!

 

[Kingster]

Yeah, still have my own stats thread to do, but don't want to trample on this one, and this seems a good place to post these. Bad as our season long numbers have been, they have consistently gotten better. Here at the stats for the past month (that period chosen simply because yahoo automatically compiles those for you in fantasy ball):

Kings in the Last Month

Big Three:
MThort: 37.5min 20.3pts (.434 .854) 3.6reb 2.3ast 1.6stl 0.4blk 1.8TO
TEvans: 37.4min 19.2pts (.439 .885) 5.7reb 6.3ast 1.6stl 0.6blk 3.0TO
DCousi: 31.0min 18.6reb (.423 .779) 11.8reb 1.3ast 1.4stl 0.9blk 2.8TO

Big Two Roleplayers:
IThom: 24.1min 11.7pts (.480 .800) 2.9reb 3.8ast 0.5stl 0.1blk 1.3TO
JThom: 28.6min 9.2pts (.486 .639) 8.1reb 1.1ast 0.3stl 0.7blk 1.2TO

SUE FOR NON-SUPPORT:
JSalm: 28.3min 7.1pts (.389 .500) 3.2reb 1.8ast 0.8stl 0.2blk 0.7TO
JFrede: 16.5min 7.1pts (.407 .917) 0.8reb 1.8ast 0.6stl 0.0blk 1.1TO
DGren: 13.4min 5.4pts (.395 .975) 2.3reb 0.4ast 0.7stl 0.3blk 0.8TO
FGarci: 13.2min 3.6pts (.344 .750) 1.8reb 0.6ast 0.9stl 0.4blk 0.8TO
TOutlaw: 7.1min 3.0pts (.400 .500) 1.2reb 0.2ast 0.0stl 0.0blk 0.4TO
JJHick: 13.6min 2.9pts (.366 .615) 3.6reb 0.6ast 0.4stl 0.6blk 0.5TO
Hayes: 17.4min 2.4pts (.378 .556) 3.5reb 0.9ast 0.9stl 0.5blk 0.7TO

Our big three are putting up winning all around numbers...and just need to be a little more efficient. Our two roleplayers who belong inth NBA are playing efficient support. It is again, the entire rest of the squad which has just reached are you kidding me level. We play 5 on 12 every night. That, and the defense, is the source of our woes. Not our main guys.

There is no Big 3. That changed with the starting of IT in the Cleveland game. The stats are for the year and do not reflect that change. When we have stats that reflect the pre-Isaiah supporting cast role vs. post-Isaiah key role, then we'll have more to work with.

 

[bajaden]

You either want to play D or you don't. And if you don't, a zone is a nice place to hide. It's less accountable because you're guarding an amorphous area and you can always blame it on the other guy. With man to man it's a yes/no, black/white situation. Either you guarded the guy you were supposed to or you didn't. Also, you're never going to excel in the playoffs with a zone, so you might as well focus on man D for the time (hopefully) you get in the playoffs. I like the zone as a change-up, not the bread and butter. Another reason I don't want to see too much of it is if you don't play mostly man-to-man you're never going to get better at it. And this team needs to get a lot better at it.

Look, I don't disagree with how the zone should be used, but I disagree that you don't have to play defense in a zone. Yes, if you use it properly, it can help hide a teams deficiencies on defense. Lets face it, Jimmer is never going to be able to guard Wall one on one. So if he's on the floor with Wall, you have a few choices. Either he guards someone else, and you have a height miss match. You have him turn Wall into the key where your bigs can stop the ball, or you use a zone to limit his penetration.

Now personally I think the Kings have enough talent to play good man to man team defense. But I don't think they have enough experience doing it together to be very effective at this point in time. Apparently neither does Smart. So he's trying to get by and get some wins by using the zone. Probably more than he should. But hey, its his job thats on the line, and for the most part, I think he's doing a much better job than Westphal.

One other thing I would disagree with is that in a man to man, its a black and white situation. A man to man defense also has rotations, and many times the guy that looks to be the blame for his man scoring, is not the true culprit. Because his teammate didn't rotate to cover his man when he stepped out to help stop the ball. What happens down the road, is that you'll see your big guarding his man and watching as a Chris Paul goes unchecked to the basket. And the reason he went unchecked, is because the big didn't want to be left holding the bag. In other words, he didn't trust his teammate to rotate. So its not just black and white accountability.

All that said, I agree with you that in the NBA the zone should be something you use as a change up to throw the other team off balance, and that there is no replacement for actual experience on the floor. All I'm saying is that I can understand why Smart is resorting to the zone. If he's retained as the head coach next season, he'll have an entire training camp, and a better familiarity of the players, to improve on the teams defense.

 

[bajaden]

:

There is no Big 3. That changed with the starting of IT in the Cleveland game. The stats are for the year and do not reflect that change. When we have stats that reflect the pre-Isaiah supporting cast role vs. post-Isaiah key role, then we'll have more to work with.

Picky, picky, picky!

 

[Kingster]

Look, I don't disagree with how the zone should be used, but I disagree that you don't have to play defense in a zone. Yes, if you use it properly, it can help hide a teams deficiencies on defense. Lets face it, Jimmer is never going to be able to guard Wall one on one. So if he's on the floor with Wall, you have a few choices. Either he guards someone else, and you have a height miss match. You have him turn Wall into the key where your bigs can stop the ball, or you use a zone to limit his penetration.

Now personally I think the Kings have enough talent to play good man to man team defense. But I don't think they have enough experience doing it together to be very effective at this point in time. Apparently neither does Smart. So he's trying to get by and get some wins by using the zone. Probably more than he should. But hey, its his job thats on the line, and for the most part, I think he's doing a much better job than Westphal.

One other thing I would disagree with is that in a man to man, its a black and white situation. A man to man defense also has rotations, and many times the guy that looks to be the blame for his man scoring, is not the true culprit. Because his teammate didn't rotate to cover his man when he stepped out to help stop the ball. What happens down the road, is that you'll see your big guarding his man and watching as a Chris Paul goes unchecked to the basket. And the reason he went unchecked, is because the big didn't want to be left holding the bag. In other words, he didn't trust his teammate to rotate. So its not just black and white accountability.

All that said, I agree with you that in the NBA the zone should be something you use as a change up to throw the other team off balance, and that there is no replacement for actual experience on the floor. All I'm saying is that I can understand why Smart is resorting to the zone. If he's retained as the head coach next season, he'll have an entire training camp, and a better familiarity of the players, to improve on the teams defense.

I think we agree more than we disagree. I understand why Smart is doing so much zone, but I just don't want him to fall in love with it for the rest of the season. Smart has said that he's going to have to coach during games because the practice times are so few, so I'd just like for him to "practice" in games more with man to man D. I'd also like to see him change up the man D so that they double team every now and again, and also pressure the ball more. As you are very aware, man to man is a cat and mouse game. Sometimes you get close enough to pressure, sometimes you back off a little, but always you want to keep the guy with the ball guessing. From what I've seen, there has been less of that cat and mouse game with man D and much more zone D, which is inherently passive. With IT and Tyreke in the backcourt, Smart has two guys who can pressure the ball, so they need to utilize some of that about 20% of the game in my opinion. Heck, I'd take 10% at this point.

 

[Kingster]

:

Picky, picky, picky!

Just keeping it real, man....

 

[Bricklayer]

Just keeping it real, man....

I hardly think annointing the 5'9" 60th pick in the draft part of a Bgi Four after 4 starts is keeping it real. Miles to go before we talk about that.

 

[Kingster]

I hardly think annointing the 5'9" 60th pick in the draft part of a Bgi Four after 4 starts is keeping it real. Miles to go before we talk about that.

We'll, when you're tired and sweaty from your marathon, we'll have to talk....