The Case of Jason Thompson

[NoBonus]

The Case of Jason Thompson:

I have read numerous reports about Jason Thompson being on the trade block or a trade not going through because Jason Thompson could not be placed on a team... I understand he makes a lot of money, but I don't feel his salary is that outlandish. So what's the deal?
I watch a lot of Kings basketball and here is my assessment of Jason Thompson:
+ Pretty decent defender
- Picks up quick fouls
+Blocks shots
- Complains to the refs too much, but rarely picks up technicals for it
+ Rebounds
-Offensive arsenal not fantastic (but not horrible, and does he need to have those weapons with Gay/Cousins/Thomas?)
+Does not require a lot of touches to be effective
-Not always the best decision maker, but better than some of the other guys
+Has been a difference maker on a lot of plays either with screens, passes or defense
+Dirty work/hustler type of guy like Rick Mahorn or Charles Oakley...

So why is he on the outs? He has outplayed just about everyone they have brought in to replace him; he seems like a better player than Carl Landry... or am I wrong?

What am I not seeing? What am I missing?

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Just about? He's outplayed every one of the guys they've brought in to replace him, except Dalembert, whom the previous regime would not re-sign.

He does whine a lot, though, which bothers some people much more than it does others.

 

[Hadlowe]

The easy answer is that he is tainted by Maloof. The new regime does seem to be determined to purge every non-Cousins holdover, up to including IT on the available list at the deadline.

The harder answer is that he is not a perfect fit next to Cousins. He rebounds, hustles, defends the best big on the opposing team, can switch between two positions. He is also lousy at defensive rotations, does not pass the ball well out of the high or low post, and does not block shots terribly well.

There are two trains of thought on how you build around Cousins. 1) You put a bruising shot blocker next to him, regardless of fit on offense and make the opposing team beat your defense. 2) You put a stretch 4 to space the floor and punish double-teams, and make the opposing team beat your offense. JT is neither one of those. He is the best fit on the roster, but not the ideal.

 

[twslam07]

Personally, I like Thompson a lot. I wonder if he gets a lot of hate around here because he is in a similar position Thomas is in. What I mean by that is it isn't that we don't like him as a player, we just don't like him in the position he is in. Most would agree that Thomas would be a perfect sixth man off the bench. However, the Kings are forced to start him which can cause problems offensively as well as defensively. I think the same thing can be said for Thompson. Most of us would prefer him as a third big off the bench. However, the Kings are forced to start him which doesn't solve our rim protection issue.

I don't really understand why people on this board want him out of town. When we find that athletic shotblocker to pair with Cousins, our big man rotation would be very solid. Is he overpaid for a 3rd big? Perhaps a little. I think great third bigs (like Thompson) would probably go for $4-5 mil a year so yeah that makes Thompson a little overpaid. Is it a reason to justify trading him? Probably not. If we draft Vonleh, we'll have a big man core of Cousins, Vonleh, and Thompson for 3 years before Thompson becomes a FA. At this time, you can begin looking for a way to move Landry to either get a useful player back or free up cap space. You can keep Acy as the 4th big of the future while you look for a very cheap center (an Aldrich type perhaps?) to round out the big man rotation, and you're set for the foreseeable future.

 

[beb0p]

Because when you look at the big picture, almost on a gamely basis the Kings are outmatched at the 4 and 2.

If you look at the western conference teams, and you rank all the starting PF from best to worst, with Love at the top and down to the bottom, where does JT rank? I'll give you a little hint, JT is the 2nd or 3rd worst starting PF in the west, and the only reason he's not the worst PF in the conference is because the Lakers are starting Ryan Kelly and Channing Frye is a soft tissue (but I think many people would still choose Frye over JT). And that's just not good for a playoff aspiring team. You can't have potentially the worst starting PF in the conference and expect to win consistently.

It's one thing if JT is a defensive stopper but he isn't. He is a capable backup being thrown into the starting up out of necessity and to his credit, he plays hard but for the Kings to take the next step, they absolutely need to upgrade that big man spot next to Cousins.

Btw, just for fun, this is how I'd rank the starting western conference PFs:

1. Love
2. Duncan
3. Griffin
4. LMA
5. Dirk
6. A. Davis
7. Ibaka
8. Zach
9. D. Lee
10. Faried
11. Favors
12. T. Jones
13. Frye
14. JT
15. R. Kelly

One can argue that Cousins is such a beast that the Kings can get away with JT as his partner. Yes, it's a valid point but why not aim higher? Why not try to get a PF who can at least rank somewhere in the middle of the pack instead of the bottom?

I don't necessary want to see JT moved out of town, just moved from the starting lineup for a better big man.
.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

The harder answer is that he is not a perfect fit next to Cousins. He rebounds, hustles, defends the best big on the opposing team, can switch between two positions. He is also lousy at defensive rotations, does not pass the ball well out of the high or low post, and does not block shots terribly well.

Wait, what? Thompson is a very effective passer in the high post, particularly in terms of finding the Meal Ticket easy looks at the basket.

If you look at the western conference teams, and you rank all the starting PF from best to worst, with Love at the top and down to the bottom, where does JT rank? I'll give you a little hint, JT is the 2nd or 3rd worst starting PF in the west

In terms of raw stats, maybe. In terms of actual games, he's definitely better than Frye, and arguably better than Jones, both of whom have much different roles on their teams.

... and the only reason he's not the worst PF in the conference is because the Lakers are starting Ryan Kelly and Channing Frye is a soft tissue (but I think many people would still choose Frye over JT). And that's just not good for a playoff aspiring team. You can't have potentially the worst starting PF in the conference and expect to win consistently.

People like whom? And let's not forget, given how strong the western conference is, the twelfth-best starting power forward in the west (which I would say Thompson is, though I don't agree with the order you have the first eleven in) is still, arguably, in the top half of starting power forwards in the league, certainly in the top two-thirds.

I don't necessary want to see JT moved out of town, just moved from the starting lineup for a better big man.

I agree that the preferred option would be Thompson on the bench, but we don't need a "better" player starting at PF, just like we don't need a "better" player than Thomas to start at point guard. Just a player who is a better fit around Cousins and Gay.

 

[KingMilz]

JT is in the lower tier of starting PF with Faried and Frye in the West. I would take Jordan Hill/Brandon Wright/Ryan Anderson and maybe Ed Davis as a long term prospect over him as well but.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Damn. At least, if you're a pro-"stretch 4" guy, I can buy Ryan Anderson. If you would rather have Jordan Hill or Brandan Wright, though, that's just some kind of hate in your heart for Jason Thompson.

 

[ParniValjak]

I see IT as a great 3rd big. Has size to play both positions. A classic jack of all trades master of none which is what you want in that role. Good man defender, lousy team defender. Good rebounder. Solid offensive arsenal i..e. he is not a liability with the ball but does not need to be effective.

I would love to see us get a shot blocker next to Cousins and have JT come off the bench playing 25mpg backing up both Cousins and the new shot blocker. The best big man rotation we had in recent years was the rookie Couins - Dalembert - JT. We gave a lot of teams fits with that front line. Even the Bynum-Gasol-Odom frontline considered best at the time had real trouble keeping up with that trio.

I would LOVE to recreate than with an all-star Cousins, a shot blocker that can guard both PFs and Cs and have JT come off the bench. I think at that point, people will start to really appreciate a lot more what JT brings to the table. Finding that shot blocker does not even seem to be on the radar for front office.

Instead of JT they prefer Landry which tells me all I need to know about the direction they are looking in.

 

[KingMilz]

Damn. At least, if you're a pro-"stretch 4" guy, I can buy Ryan Anderson. If you would rather have Jordan Hill or Brandan Wright, though, that's just some kind of hate in your heart for Jason Thompson.

What does JT do better than Hill or Wright? To me both are better at moving without the ball and both are better defenders than JT.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

He's a significantly better rebounder than Wright. He's a better passer than either of them. He's not as good a weak-side shot blocker as either of them, but he's a better on-ball defender than either. Inexplicably, he also, FWIW, has more win shares than either of them, despite having a lower usage rate. He also has the ability to two positions at both ends, which neither of them can.

 

[KingMilz]

He's a significantly better rebounder than Wright. He's a better passer than either of them. He's not as good a weak-side shot blocker as either of them, but he's a better on-ball defender than either. Inexplicably, he also, FWIW, has more win shares than either of them, despite having a lower usage rate. He also has the ability to two positions at both ends, which neither of them can.

Hill guards C's all the time

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Not particularly well. Not any better than Thompson, at any rate. And he can't effectively play center on offense.

 

[Gilles]

I like JT, think, he should stay, and just be moved from the starting lineup to the bench by better player, better JT with good help defense. But recently I realized, that Cousins' attitude problems were exacerbated by learning to always argue with officials from certain teammate, who he was playing with for most of his career.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Say again, over? You're putting Cousins' behavior on Thompson? Now I've heard everything.

 

[Gilles]

No, I'm saying Cousins got a bad example playing next to him from the start of his career, and it was part of the problem. JT is not such a strong personality to drag Boogie all by himself.

 

[SacTownKid]

Jason Thompson has gotten better as a man defender, but on team defense and the ever important defensive awareness, he's below average. You could argue that Cousins is slightly below average in some areas defensively. As a combination, they don't compliment each other. At least with a player like Landry you could conceivably bring him off the bench to score. JT really isn't someone you go to to get points either.

Bottom line, JT and Cousins probably need the same type of player next to both of them. If this team could put together a brick wall of exterior defense around JT and Cuz it might work, but that's probably harder to do than finding the right guy at PF.

 

[SacTownKid]

He's a significantly better rebounder than Wright. He's a better passer than either of them. He's not as good a weak-side shot blocker as either of them, but he's a better on-ball defender than either. Inexplicably, he also, FWIW, has more win shares than either of them, despite having a lower usage rate. He also has the ability to two positions at both ends, which neither of them can.

JT plays more minutes than Wright. Per 48 JT gets a whopping 1 more rebound than Wright. This team isn't using JT as a passer so it doesn't matter much. The only player I can recall making the kind of money JT makes for the production he puts up is....dun-dun-dun, Kenny Thomas.

 

[Gilles]

JT plays more minutes than Wright. Per 48 JT gets a whopping 1 more rebound than Wright. This team isn't using JT as a passer so it doesn't matter much. The only player I can recall making the kind of money JT makes for the production he puts up is....dun-dun-dun, Kenny Thomas.

Having good for their position ball handlers and passers is pretty important for running smooth offense, so that guards don't have to run back to the guy for hand-off, or your big doesn't get stuck to the floor with the ball in his hands, because he can't make one dribble without turning it over.

 

[KingMilz]

Not particularly well. Not any better than Thompson, at any rate. And he can't effectively play center on offense.

Based on what? He's a EXCELLENT pick n roll player and has a nice jump hook and is a elite offensive rebounder and a good athlete.

 

[ESP47]

I think inconsistency is his biggest problem. One game he's decent and the next he does absolutely nothing.

Strange because last year he was our most consistent player but that seems to have been an anomaly because the rest of his career says otherwise.

 

[Glenn]

The team is changing dramatically every few months. I wouldn't expect consistency from anyone. I swear PDA is making moves just to make moves. I hope he has a goal. I'll bet many players are puzzled by the constant shift of team mates. It's like being in a war zone. Don't make friends as your friend may be gone tomorrow.

I see no reason to unload JT. He is not a max contract talent which I presume is what people want but a team can have only so many max contract guys because of the luxury tax. JT HAS been one of our most consistent players. The way this year has gone, I'm surprised anyone can be consistent.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

JT plays more minutes than Wright. Per 48 JT gets a whopping 1 more rebound than Wright.

I didn't realize one rebound was insignificant.

The only player I can recall making the kind of money JT makes for the production he puts up is....dun-dun-dun, Kenny Thomas.

Then you remember wrongly: Thomas made much more money than Thompson, and was much less productive, as a King.

 

[SacTownKid]

I didn't realize one rebound was insignificant.


Then you remember wrongly: Thomas made much more money than Thompson, and was much less productive, as a King.

Much more? I guess I have a different idea of significance means than you. 1 rebound is not that much of a difference to me, just like a 1.7 million dollar difference in cap hit in a contracts final year isn't too significant when that contract is weighing you down.

And much less productive? The most similar year in terms of usage that Kenny had relative to JT's career here was 05-06:

9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2 apg, 0.5 bpg, 0.9 spg in 28 mpg

Jason Thompson's career numbers:

10 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.7 bpg, 0.5 spg. in 27 mpg.

Looks pretty similar to me. Even Kenny's overall career numbers are almost identical to Jasons. Hopefully the number of games played per season as they end their career with the Kings doesn't follow a similar trend. You have to admit, it's pretty freaky.

 

[twslam07]

Much more? I guess I have a different idea of significance than you. 1 rebound is not that much of a difference to me, just like a 1.7 million dollar difference in cap hit in a contracts final year isn't too significant when that contract is weighing you down.

If you really want to look at significance in a statistics way, 1 rebound can easily prove to be a significant difference depending on your confidence level and the sample size (amount of games you are looking at).

 

[DesertFox]

Much more? I guess I have a different idea of significance means than you. 1 rebound is not that much of a difference to me, just like a 1.7 million dollar difference in cap hit in a contracts final year isn't too significant when that contract is weighing you down.

And much less productive? The most similar year in terms of usage that Kenny had relative to JT's career here was 05-06:

9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2 apg, 0.5 bpg, 0.9 spg in 28 mpg

Jason Thompson's career numbers:

10 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.7 bpg, 0.5 spg. in 27 mpg.

Looks pretty similar to me. Even Kenny's overall career numbers are almost identical to Jasons. Hopefully the number of games played per season as they end their career with the Kings doesn't follow a similar trend. You have to admit, it's pretty freaky.

It is a little weird. While I (hopefully) don't see that kind of future for JT, Kenny lost his scoring and dribbling ability once he was asked by Muss to play that garbage man role. Never complained publicly, worked hard, and apparently a nice enough guy, but for whatever reason lost the scoring ability of his youth and faded to the end of the bench.
JT hasn't even matched Kenny's peak numbers, but he has better size, so I hope the comparison ends there.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Much more? I guess I have a different idea of significance means than you. 1 rebound is not that much of a difference to me, just like a 1.7 million dollar difference in cap hit in a contracts final year isn't too significant when that contract is weighing you down.

And much less productive? The most similar year in terms of usage that Kenny had relative to JT's career here was 05-06:

9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2 apg, 0.5 bpg, 0.9 spg in 28 mpg

Jason Thompson's career numbers:

10 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.7 bpg, 0.5 spg. in 27 mpg.

Looks pretty similar to me. Even Kenny's overall career numbers are almost identical to Jasons. Hopefully the number of games played per season as they end their career with the Kings doesn't follow a similar trend. You have to admit, it's pretty freaky.

Yes, much less productive. If you're going to say that Thompson makes Kenny Thomas money for Kenny Thomas production, you can't cherry-pick the numbers. Thomas made more money his first full year here than Thompson will make at any point in his contract, except for the very last year. He made as much money through his first four years than Thompson will have made over the entirety of his contract... only Thomas was still here for a year and a half after that. We ended up paying Thomas nearly eleven million dollars more than Thompson is owed for the entirety of his contract (like, $10.87M more, or something like that), counting last season; that'd almost be like if we extended Thompson for two more years.

And what did we get out of Kenny Thomas for five and a half years, and forty-one million dollars? Here are his totals as a King:
1536pts 1384reb 348ast 164stl 78blk

Here are Thompson's totals, through the first two years of his contract:
1318pts 911reb 122ast 64stl 100blk

He's already passed him in blocks. And, forget about the length of his contract: if he even stays here until the next trade deadline, he's going to eclipse Thomas in points and rebounds, too. In less than three years, versus five and a half. So, tell me again how Thompson is putting up Kenny Thomas production for Kenny Thomas money?

 

[SacTownKid]

Yes, much less productive. If you're going to say that Thompson makes Kenny Thomas money for Kenny Thomas production, you can't cherry-pick the numbers. Thomas made more money his first full year here than Thompson will make at any point in his contract, except for the very last year. He made as much money through his first four years than Thompson will have made over the entirety of his contract... only Thomas was still here for a year and a half after that. We ended up paying Thomas nearly eleven million dollars more than Thompson is owed for the entirety of his contract (like, $10.87M more, or something like that), counting last season; that'd almost be like if we extended Thompson for two more years.

And what did we get out of Kenny Thomas for five and a half years, and forty-one million dollars? Here are his totals as a King:
1536pts 1384reb 348ast 164stl 78blk

Here are Thompson's totals, through the first two years of his contract:
1318pts 911reb 122ast 64stl 100blk

He's already passed him in blocks. And, forget about the length of his contract: if he even stays here until the next trade deadline, he's going to eclipse Thomas in points and rebounds, too. In less than three years, versus five and a half. So, tell me again how Thompson is putting up Kenny Thomas production for Kenny Thomas money?

Cherry pick? That's what you call taking career totals and comparing them when situations were different. Kenny Thomas played in only 57 games total his last 3 years here. Comparing per minute production and similar usage scenarios is the way to go since there is a large enough sample size and similar career arc in this situation.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Those are not career totals. That is Thomas' time in Sacramento, under his last contract, versus Thompson's time in Sacramento, under his current contract. Those are neither Thomas nor Thompson's career numbers.

You said that Thompson's production, relative to his contract, was equivalent to Thomas. I demonstrated that this is not true. When you start talking about a player's production relative to his contract, role and usage go out the window. Thomas may have only played twelve minutes a game his last three years in Sacramento, but he sure as hell was getting paid like he was playing thirty minutes a game.

If you had said that Thompson was only as productive, relative to his role, as Kenny Thomas was, then you might have at least had half an argument... At least then, you could have thrown around PER and usage and per/36 numbers, and had them to fall back on, but... and here is the important part, that is not what you said. What you said was that Thompson's production, relative to his contract, was equivalent to Kenny Thomas. That does not factor in role, only money. And, dollar-for-dollar, Thompson is way more productive than Thomas was, as a King.

JT plays more minutes than Wright. Per 48 JT gets a whopping 1 more rebound than Wright. This team isn't using JT as a passer so it doesn't matter much. The only player I can recall making the kind of money JT makes for the production he puts up is....dun-dun-dun, Kenny Thomas.

Those were your exact words. You do not get to go back, after this was refuted, and say you were misquoted. You were not misquoted; that was what you said. If that was not what you meant, then you should have said what you meant.

 

[Glenn]

Those are not career totals. That is Thomas' time in Sacramento, under his last contract, versus Thompson's time in Sacramento, under his current contract. Those are neither Thomas nor Thompson's career numbers.

You said that Thompson's production, relative to his contract, was equivalent to Thomas. I demonstrated that this is not true. When you start talking about a player's production relative to his contract, role and usage go out the window. Thomas may have only played twelve minutes a game his last three years in Sacramento, but he sure as hell was getting paid like he was playing thirty minutes a game.

If you had said that Thompson was only as productive, relative to his role, as Kenny Thomas was, then you might have at least had half an argument... At least then, you could have thrown around PER and usage and per/36 numbers, and had them to fall back on, but... and here is the important part, that is not what you said. What you said was that Thompson's production, relative to his contract, was equivalent to Kenny Thomas. That does not factor in role, only money. And, dollar-for-dollar, Thompson is way more productive than Thomas was, as a King.


Those were your exact words. You do not get to go back, after this was refuted, and say you were misquoted. You were not misquoted; that was what you said. If that was not what you meant, then you should have said what you meant.

I will never argue with you. I will never argue with you. You are like a freaking bull dog. Also, you occasionally are correct.