Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Alright, much has been said about the messed up way the coaching staff is misusing DeMarcus Cousins. Some have tried to spin that to that DeMarcus Cousins is misusing DeMarcus Cousins. But I've been paying attention to some pretty remarkable numbers stemming from the whole thing. So here we go.
Part I -- DeMarcus Cousins is Now the Most Prolific Scorer in the NBA Not Named Curry
NBA Scoring Leaders (11/15)
1) Curry 33.4
2) Harden 28.4
3) Durant 28.1
4) James 27.0
5) Cousins 26.7 <------------
6) Griffin 26.6
7) Lillard 25.3
8) Westbrook 25.2
9) George 24.3
10) Davis 24.0
But remember, Boogie got hurt and missed half a game vs. the Clipps, so is averaging only 30.6min, 5-6 minutes less than most of those guys. Make the same list per minute (per 36) and you see what's really going on:
NBA Per 36min Scoring Leaders (11/15)
1) Curry 34.2
2) Cousins 31.6 <--------------
3) Durant 29.1
4) Griffin 28.1
5) James 26.8
6) Westbrook 26.2
7) Harden 25.9
8) Lillard 24.8
9) Bledsoe 24.6
10) Thomas 24.6
So that's it. The last 2 MVPs, and Boogie sandwiched in between. If you don't like per 36 numbers, then consider this: setting aside the Clipper half game, DeMarcus Cousins' numbers in the other 5 games?
33.4min 29.4pts 11.6reb
The last NBA big man to average 29+ pts a game for a season? Shaquille O'Neal when he won the MVP in 1999-00.
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Part II -- Percentages, FG/3pt/FT/TS
BUT a saavy Kings viewer might mention, what about the fugly shooting %? And they would be right to do so...
Boogie is shooting .424 from the field this year. .424 is worse than his rookie season's .430. .424 is Antoine Walker standing outside chucking up bricks.
BUT then a funny happens.
1) Three Point Percentage
Boogie is shooting .435 from 3pt land. Its early, and hence almost surely flukish, but last year .435 would have placed him #6 in the NBA in 3pt%.
2014-15 NBA 3pt% Leaders
1) Korver .492
2) Gordon .448
3) Curry .443
4) Thompson .439
5) Reddick .437
<------------------------Boogie .435!
6) Morrow .434
2) Free Throw Attempts
Concerns have also been raised that perimeter Boogie was no longer going to draw fouls. but that's where the unprecedented nature (Boogie is quite possibly the greatest ballhandling big man in NBA history) of Boogie comes into play, as utilized in the "dribble drive nonsens...oh sorry, I mean "offense". You take a normal big man out of the post, and he can't get in there. He's reduced to being a jumpshooter. You take Boogie out of the post, in a "dribbled drive offense", and he still slams his way on in there, just now off the bounce (which he always liked to do) instead of out of the post (which supposed super-coach George Karl knows about as much about as my Aunt Trudy). And so here is the end result of the handwringing:
2015-16 NBA Leaders in Free Throw Attempts
1) Harden 11.9
2) Cousins 11.0 <-------------
3) DeRozan 9.4
4) Davis 9.3
5) James 8.1
but again using the per numbers to look through the minutes difference:
2015-16 NBA Leaders in Free Throw Attempts Per 36Min
1) Cousins 13.1
2) Harden 10.9
3) Williams 10.5 (yes, Derrick Williams)
4) DeRozan 9.6
5) Davis 9.4
and you see that Boogie is leading the league in FTA/min by a MILE. He's drawing more fouls than anyone, and its not close.
3) True Shooting Percentage
And so we come to the punchline. True shooting percentage is a "mush stat" of the sort I regularly knock for being simplified stats mushing together details into a statistical babyfood for the masses. But its also a mush stat that has a point: scoring efficiency. Its like Points Per Shot -- no matter how you get it done, how many points do you score per possession? Boogie's FG% is a terrible .424, but his elite 3pt% and foul drawing thus far make him into a classic metric darling, and the end result is this:
Boogie TS%, Last 3 Years
2013-14 .555
2014-15 .545
2015-16 .544
And there it is: How an offense can make Boogie into a 42% shooter, and yet still leave him scoring as efficiently as he did last year (although last year's number was disappointing, and looked to be much better under Malone before the Corbin era destroyed it)
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Part III -- The ShotCharts
Ok, so what do the above hcanges end up looking like on a shotchart (which obviously will not include the FTs that compose a large part of the offense)?
And what you can see there is its not the inside game that has gone away, it is instead in true modern metrichead fashion, the complete renunciation of the midrange game, which is to say, actual basketball.
In fact, if you want to find a somewhat similar shotchart, you just have to head on down the road to the land of Moreyball, currently undergoing a much deserved pathetic collapse that nobody laments. In the end that's all "dribble drive" is, its another name for the same metric nonsense that the only things that matter are dunks, threes or FTs. It just so happens we happen to have on our team a unique talent able to do all those things, but in this offense he's no longer going to be allowed to do many of the other things he can do too. Its a soulless exercise in numbers crunching,but one producing numbers for Boogie, or rather, one for which Boogie is producing numbers.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part IV -- Boogie's Per 100 Stats in Historical Context
I like per 100 numbers. I wish more people got them. The great advantage of Per 100 stats is that they take pace out of the equation, as well as minutes. If you play on the Rockets you might put up bigger numbers than if you play for Utah right? More pace = more possessions = more chances for numbers. Well by setting stats to per 100 possessions, it takes that out of the equation, and especially makes for much better comparisons of players from different (higher or lower) paced eras (although unfortunately we don't have the stats to create per 100 numbers before the mid 70s),
In any case, after you've looked at per 100 stats for a while, and scoring stats in particular, you quickly come to see this kind of breakdown:
30+ pts per 100 = star level scorer, but you can still get in some secondary guys, an Isaiah Thomas or Antawn Jamison or some such having a career type year. Only the big stars are going to consistently be this high however.
35+ pts per 100 = superstar. Almost no secondary guys at all ever reach this level, and even many major stars of the Duncan level never do
40+pts per 100 = legendary level. the greatest scorers typically have a handful of 35+ years, and maybe, MAYBE 1 40+ year. Except for you know who? Michael Jordan. You could call 40+ Jordan level because he lived there, and no other player ever has.
So, Boogie this year: 41.7pts per 100 possessions.
here is a list of every single season anybody has ever broken 40pts/per 100 possessions:
1) 86-87 Jordan 46.4
<----------------------------------15-16 Curry 45.7
2) 05-06 Bryant 45.6
3) 87-88 Jordan 43.6
4) 92-93 Jordan 43.0
5) 89-90 Jordan 42.7
6) 90-91 Jordan 42.7
7) 95-96 Jordan 42.5
8) 81-82 Gervin 42.4
9) 84-85 King 42.3
10) 02-03 McGrady 42.0
11) 13-14 Durant 41.8
12) 96-97 Jordan 41.8
13) 08-09 Wade 41.8
<----------------------------------15-16 Cousins 41.7
14) 12-13 Anthony 41.4
15) 14-15 Westbrook 41.1
16) 08-09 James 40.8
17) 89-90 Malone 40.6
18) 87-88 Wilkens 40.5
19) 97-98 O'Neal 40.1
20) 09-10 James 40.0
21) 88-89 Jordan 40.0
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Part V -- Boogie v. Boogie, How This Boogie Measures Up To Boogies Past
And of course with all these comparisons to other players, one of the important ones is about what all of this has meant for Boogie himself. He has been the NBA's unrecognized superstar for several years now. Have the smallball morons messed that up?
Per 36 minutes:
2013-14 25.3pts (.555TS%) 13.0reb 3.2ast 1.7stl 1.4blk 3.9TO 4.2PF
2014-15 25.4pts (.545TS%) 13.4reb 3.8ast 1.6stl 1.8blk 4.5TO 4.3PF
2015-16 31.6pts (.544TS%) 13.3reb 2.4ast 0.6stl 1.2blk 3.8TO 4.5PF
And when you look at those numbers, maybe the answer is no, they haven't. The two biggest changes in the stats -- aside from the scoring explosions -- are the assists, which are likely effected by Rondo's presence and also likely helping keep the turnovers down to more reasonable Boogie numbers, and the steal/block numbers, which is a defensive question. I could see the blocks being depressed by WCS/Koufos and Boogie being asked to chase more on the perimeter rather than rim protect. The steals? A fluke? Or an attempt to keep down his fouls, which are even slightly up this year, although it hasn't felt that bad in games. It would be unfortunate if Boogie's disruptive defensive hands were no more, and given how crapty our defense has been, maybe we need them back.
Part I -- DeMarcus Cousins is Now the Most Prolific Scorer in the NBA Not Named Curry
NBA Scoring Leaders (11/15)
1) Curry 33.4
2) Harden 28.4
3) Durant 28.1
4) James 27.0
5) Cousins 26.7 <------------
6) Griffin 26.6
7) Lillard 25.3
8) Westbrook 25.2
9) George 24.3
10) Davis 24.0
But remember, Boogie got hurt and missed half a game vs. the Clipps, so is averaging only 30.6min, 5-6 minutes less than most of those guys. Make the same list per minute (per 36) and you see what's really going on:
NBA Per 36min Scoring Leaders (11/15)
1) Curry 34.2
2) Cousins 31.6 <--------------
3) Durant 29.1
4) Griffin 28.1
5) James 26.8
6) Westbrook 26.2
7) Harden 25.9
8) Lillard 24.8
9) Bledsoe 24.6
10) Thomas 24.6
So that's it. The last 2 MVPs, and Boogie sandwiched in between. If you don't like per 36 numbers, then consider this: setting aside the Clipper half game, DeMarcus Cousins' numbers in the other 5 games?
33.4min 29.4pts 11.6reb
The last NBA big man to average 29+ pts a game for a season? Shaquille O'Neal when he won the MVP in 1999-00.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part II -- Percentages, FG/3pt/FT/TS
BUT a saavy Kings viewer might mention, what about the fugly shooting %? And they would be right to do so...
Boogie is shooting .424 from the field this year. .424 is worse than his rookie season's .430. .424 is Antoine Walker standing outside chucking up bricks.
BUT then a funny happens.
1) Three Point Percentage
Boogie is shooting .435 from 3pt land. Its early, and hence almost surely flukish, but last year .435 would have placed him #6 in the NBA in 3pt%.
2014-15 NBA 3pt% Leaders
1) Korver .492
2) Gordon .448
3) Curry .443
4) Thompson .439
5) Reddick .437
<------------------------Boogie .435!
6) Morrow .434
2) Free Throw Attempts
Concerns have also been raised that perimeter Boogie was no longer going to draw fouls. but that's where the unprecedented nature (Boogie is quite possibly the greatest ballhandling big man in NBA history) of Boogie comes into play, as utilized in the "dribble drive nonsens...oh sorry, I mean "offense". You take a normal big man out of the post, and he can't get in there. He's reduced to being a jumpshooter. You take Boogie out of the post, in a "dribbled drive offense", and he still slams his way on in there, just now off the bounce (which he always liked to do) instead of out of the post (which supposed super-coach George Karl knows about as much about as my Aunt Trudy). And so here is the end result of the handwringing:
2015-16 NBA Leaders in Free Throw Attempts
1) Harden 11.9
2) Cousins 11.0 <-------------
3) DeRozan 9.4
4) Davis 9.3
5) James 8.1
but again using the per numbers to look through the minutes difference:
2015-16 NBA Leaders in Free Throw Attempts Per 36Min
1) Cousins 13.1
2) Harden 10.9
3) Williams 10.5 (yes, Derrick Williams)
4) DeRozan 9.6
5) Davis 9.4
and you see that Boogie is leading the league in FTA/min by a MILE. He's drawing more fouls than anyone, and its not close.
3) True Shooting Percentage
And so we come to the punchline. True shooting percentage is a "mush stat" of the sort I regularly knock for being simplified stats mushing together details into a statistical babyfood for the masses. But its also a mush stat that has a point: scoring efficiency. Its like Points Per Shot -- no matter how you get it done, how many points do you score per possession? Boogie's FG% is a terrible .424, but his elite 3pt% and foul drawing thus far make him into a classic metric darling, and the end result is this:
Boogie TS%, Last 3 Years
2013-14 .555
2014-15 .545
2015-16 .544
And there it is: How an offense can make Boogie into a 42% shooter, and yet still leave him scoring as efficiently as he did last year (although last year's number was disappointing, and looked to be much better under Malone before the Corbin era destroyed it)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part III -- The ShotCharts
Ok, so what do the above hcanges end up looking like on a shotchart (which obviously will not include the FTs that compose a large part of the offense)?
And what you can see there is its not the inside game that has gone away, it is instead in true modern metrichead fashion, the complete renunciation of the midrange game, which is to say, actual basketball.
In fact, if you want to find a somewhat similar shotchart, you just have to head on down the road to the land of Moreyball, currently undergoing a much deserved pathetic collapse that nobody laments. In the end that's all "dribble drive" is, its another name for the same metric nonsense that the only things that matter are dunks, threes or FTs. It just so happens we happen to have on our team a unique talent able to do all those things, but in this offense he's no longer going to be allowed to do many of the other things he can do too. Its a soulless exercise in numbers crunching,but one producing numbers for Boogie, or rather, one for which Boogie is producing numbers.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part IV -- Boogie's Per 100 Stats in Historical Context
I like per 100 numbers. I wish more people got them. The great advantage of Per 100 stats is that they take pace out of the equation, as well as minutes. If you play on the Rockets you might put up bigger numbers than if you play for Utah right? More pace = more possessions = more chances for numbers. Well by setting stats to per 100 possessions, it takes that out of the equation, and especially makes for much better comparisons of players from different (higher or lower) paced eras (although unfortunately we don't have the stats to create per 100 numbers before the mid 70s),
In any case, after you've looked at per 100 stats for a while, and scoring stats in particular, you quickly come to see this kind of breakdown:
30+ pts per 100 = star level scorer, but you can still get in some secondary guys, an Isaiah Thomas or Antawn Jamison or some such having a career type year. Only the big stars are going to consistently be this high however.
35+ pts per 100 = superstar. Almost no secondary guys at all ever reach this level, and even many major stars of the Duncan level never do
40+pts per 100 = legendary level. the greatest scorers typically have a handful of 35+ years, and maybe, MAYBE 1 40+ year. Except for you know who? Michael Jordan. You could call 40+ Jordan level because he lived there, and no other player ever has.
So, Boogie this year: 41.7pts per 100 possessions.
here is a list of every single season anybody has ever broken 40pts/per 100 possessions:
1) 86-87 Jordan 46.4
<----------------------------------15-16 Curry 45.7
2) 05-06 Bryant 45.6
3) 87-88 Jordan 43.6
4) 92-93 Jordan 43.0
5) 89-90 Jordan 42.7
6) 90-91 Jordan 42.7
7) 95-96 Jordan 42.5
8) 81-82 Gervin 42.4
9) 84-85 King 42.3
10) 02-03 McGrady 42.0
11) 13-14 Durant 41.8
12) 96-97 Jordan 41.8
13) 08-09 Wade 41.8
<----------------------------------15-16 Cousins 41.7
14) 12-13 Anthony 41.4
15) 14-15 Westbrook 41.1
16) 08-09 James 40.8
17) 89-90 Malone 40.6
18) 87-88 Wilkens 40.5
19) 97-98 O'Neal 40.1
20) 09-10 James 40.0
21) 88-89 Jordan 40.0
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Part V -- Boogie v. Boogie, How This Boogie Measures Up To Boogies Past
And of course with all these comparisons to other players, one of the important ones is about what all of this has meant for Boogie himself. He has been the NBA's unrecognized superstar for several years now. Have the smallball morons messed that up?
Per 36 minutes:
2013-14 25.3pts (.555TS%) 13.0reb 3.2ast 1.7stl 1.4blk 3.9TO 4.2PF
2014-15 25.4pts (.545TS%) 13.4reb 3.8ast 1.6stl 1.8blk 4.5TO 4.3PF
2015-16 31.6pts (.544TS%) 13.3reb 2.4ast 0.6stl 1.2blk 3.8TO 4.5PF
And when you look at those numbers, maybe the answer is no, they haven't. The two biggest changes in the stats -- aside from the scoring explosions -- are the assists, which are likely effected by Rondo's presence and also likely helping keep the turnovers down to more reasonable Boogie numbers, and the steal/block numbers, which is a defensive question. I could see the blocks being depressed by WCS/Koufos and Boogie being asked to chase more on the perimeter rather than rim protect. The steals? A fluke? Or an attempt to keep down his fouls, which are even slightly up this year, although it hasn't felt that bad in games. It would be unfortunate if Boogie's disruptive defensive hands were no more, and given how crapty our defense has been, maybe we need them back.
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