QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
I simply see this as us taking 1 step back right now in order to take about 5 steps forward in a couple of years. Good times are about to come...
The 2024 Playoff Chase Thread
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
I forgot Utah in my rant, they don’t really have a great base to work with as far as core players but they have a ton of assets. I do wonder if they look at the West and decide to sit out 2 more years or if they are wanting to join the “fun” now and start trading the picks for core pieces. If I was them I’d trade Lauri and tank for at least one season. By then they would have maybe the most assets in the league and could start building things out.
That is exactly what we did in Year 2 of the golden years.I simply see this as us taking 1 step back right now in order to take about 5 steps forward in a couple of years. Good times are about to come...
I think Monte has generally been wise and if nothing else I think the Davion now will have trade value in the offseason if deemed expendable. We're seeing the same concerns creep up with Barnes though, has a few great games and all is well and then ice cold and no value.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Meh, he's on my shortlist of players I respect, but never want to see wearing a Kings uniform. Bron is another. haha.
Both are and yet if either was willing to come to Sacramento I would reconsider my assessment of them.
I would love some top tier FA to say "you know what the ultimate challenge is? Getting a small market team over the hump and becoming a multi-generational face of the franchise". You CAN'T do that for all the usual suspect teams. You can do it in Sacramento, Portland and a few other select places. I actually do respect LeBron for returning to Cleveland to do that. Just hate how he got there and where he left later.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
I simply see this as us taking 1 step back right now in order to take about 5 steps forward in a couple of years. Good times are about to come...
The question is where that step comes from. Being capped out and being an older young-ish team has it's drawbacks. I mean, think about the comparison here, this is a team need to make that step now. This team gets compared with the Webber teams and their arc into winning but that team was basically the same age as this one once they made the WCF. Webber and Peja were 28 and 24 that year. Domas and Fox are 27 and 26. Hedo was around 2 years YOUNGER than Keon, and year younger than Keegan. Bibby was a year younger than Keon and the age as Keegan. DC was the same age as Harrison. Vlade was the only older rotation piece but that team was actually only really older at the back of the bench. I think Monte is going to be looking to make that step forward this summer.
Bibby and Hedo weren't on the team yet until year 4 and 3 respectively. Reality is to get to that point we are going to ship a beloved fixture out.
But the modern NBA is a bit different and the path might be that you ship 3 picks plus enough salary out to get a Lauri type.
Also the other thing to consider is the top players are playing into much longer primes these days. Medicine has come a long way in 20 years.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
People seem to have forgotten that Mike Bibby came to the Kings in the offseason before what, as of this writing, has gone down as the greatest season in the Sacramento-era. We had already been good for a couple of years.
If Monte is a student of history in building this new team following a similar blueprint, and there are clear parallels, then I hope he has a better middle and end game for the post 2003 part of the script.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
He may be looking to make that step forward this summer. But that doesn't necessarily mean that he will. If Monte likes what he sees out there, sure, he will make that step forward. If he doesn't like what he sees out there, he will NOT make that step forward. One thing that is apparent with Monte is that he's not going to make a move for the sake of telling everyone that he is making a move. He's going to make a move for the sake of improving this team moving forward.
With all the discussion about the Kings only being "a few games off" where people thought they'd be this year, I agree, but those are a BIG few games. I don't think the Kings needed to win 10 more games for this to be a successful season, but if they had managed to hold 20+ point fourth quarter leads against the Suns and Bulls, hold a 5 point lead, with the ball, in the last 30 seconds against the Bucks, and win one (just one) of the games against the Wizards, Pistons, or Hornets, we'd have 49 wins, be on pace for 50+ wins, be safely in the playoffs, and no one would care that we might be the 5 or 6 seed.
So while I understand that every team ahs ups and downs, and everyone loses games they shouldn't, I don't think it is out of bounds to be upset that the team had three historic late game collapses or that we went 3-3 this year against teams (Hornets, Wizards, Pistons) that are a combined 48-191 this season. Yes, everyone loses games to bad teams - the Bucks, Heat, Cavs, Wolves, Thunder, and Celtics all lost one time to the Hornets, Wiz, or Pistons this year. We lost 3! The only "playoff" teams to lose more than one such game this year are the Kings, Bulls, and Hawks.
We are paying the price now for those bad losses.
So while I understand that every team ahs ups and downs, and everyone loses games they shouldn't, I don't think it is out of bounds to be upset that the team had three historic late game collapses or that we went 3-3 this year against teams (Hornets, Wizards, Pistons) that are a combined 48-191 this season. Yes, everyone loses games to bad teams - the Bucks, Heat, Cavs, Wolves, Thunder, and Celtics all lost one time to the Hornets, Wiz, or Pistons this year. We lost 3! The only "playoff" teams to lose more than one such game this year are the Kings, Bulls, and Hawks.
We are paying the price now for those bad losses.
I don't trust a road game against LA or GSW to be officiated fairly but I think we could win on the road against the other teams in the equation.
ockingsfan
Starter
Agreed. With the way this team has been all year, I almost prefer a road game in a 7/8 play-in scenario.
If we are #9/10 against LAL or GSW, the refs would never let us though, we would be done.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
If we are 9 against either of those teams, I'd still say we have a shot at winning that game at home. If we're 10th, though...
Fuhgeddaboudit
In some ways the pressure being off a bit of being the eight on the road with a second game at home if needed might be what the guys need to play relaxed and get it done.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
But, you need not to worry about that. Because we're not going to be 9 or 10. We're going to be 8, and we're going to then go on the road and beat 7. So 7 then can stay home and beat 9 or 10...
And then, we're gonna shock the world, go 16-0, and I will then see all of your butts at the parade in June!!!
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Yeah, but the ages and experience was similar to this current incarnation. Even the Kings youth is knocking on that prime door.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Yeah, but he has to be looking at the same cap sheet we are. Once a team is solidified with big contracts, it's very tough to make clear step forward types of moves. Keon stepping up is going to be a gift if Monte uses his time right.
Yes, nothing wrong with 'running it back' but the results have not been there. Unless there's something behind the scenes I'm unaware of, hoping time to think about alternatives.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Alright well there we have it. Two single elimination games (eliminated from the top side of the play-in) left and if we don’t win both we will be playing… two more single elimination games.
My guess is the Pelicans beat the Warriors tomorrow. If they do, they will rest their starters against the Lakers for the final game. That means we have to win tomorrow and Sunday or we will play a home game against the Warriors. I hate to say it but that seems like the most likely path. Can we beat the Warriors? Sure, but even if you do, it’s likely another game against the Suns (who I would predict to beat the lakers) again, we can beat the Suns but in the playoffs you tend to lean in the direction of the best player(s) and that is still Durant.
My guess is the Pelicans beat the Warriors tomorrow. If they do, they will rest their starters against the Lakers for the final game. That means we have to win tomorrow and Sunday or we will play a home game against the Warriors. I hate to say it but that seems like the most likely path. Can we beat the Warriors? Sure, but even if you do, it’s likely another game against the Suns (who I would predict to beat the lakers) again, we can beat the Suns but in the playoffs you tend to lean in the direction of the best player(s) and that is still Durant.
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24 rick barry
Bench
No, we are paying the price now because Monk and Huerter are hurt.
ockingsfan
Starter
This season was over the night Luka rolled up on Monk's knee.
At this point it may be better for the Kings to lose out and secure the #13 pick in the draft and hope for some lottery luck. Who knows, maybe we get lucky with someone at #13/#14 pick or we move up and get a top 4 pick and can potentially use that to trade for a player that moves the needle this summer. Or we can draft a player at #13/#14 (with a pre-draft trade lined up) with another team to trade for a player.
But this team will be capped out (if we can re-sign Monk) with no clear way of improving besides a possible draft pick and a prayer that someone will take our non-core players (HB, Huerter, Durate, Sasha, and Mitchell) for their core player (Kuzma, Grant, etc) in a trade. There is no clear path to improve this team next season.
At this point it may be better for the Kings to lose out and secure the #13 pick in the draft and hope for some lottery luck. Who knows, maybe we get lucky with someone at #13/#14 pick or we move up and get a top 4 pick and can potentially use that to trade for a player that moves the needle this summer. Or we can draft a player at #13/#14 (with a pre-draft trade lined up) with another team to trade for a player.
But this team will be capped out (if we can re-sign Monk) with no clear way of improving besides a possible draft pick and a prayer that someone will take our non-core players (HB, Huerter, Durate, Sasha, and Mitchell) for their core player (Kuzma, Grant, etc) in a trade. There is no clear path to improve this team next season.
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Tizzy Flip
Starter
What does it say about us though that pretty much every top team in the West has had a key injury, except for maybe the Thunder. We’ve been relatively healthy these last 2 seasons. As I mentioned before, I just can’t see us cracking the top tier in the Western conference (Nuggets, Thunder, Twolves, Mavs) with a Fox-Sabonis core. Even if Murray become a 20pt scorer, I don’t see that as enough; still too many holes and not enough grit and toughness. But I’ll wait for that debate once the season is over, and hopefully if goes past these next 2 weeks
ockingsfan
Starter
This team does not have enough long and athletic players to compete in the upper echelon of Western teams. I'm not sure why Monte refuses to go after long, athletic players, instead he gets players like Mitchell, Sasha and Durate.
Monte put all his eggs in Keegan making the leap to legit #2 or #3 player and he's not there yet. Even if Keegan gets to a solid #3, this team doesn't have enough to compete for championships IMO. Keegan needs to develop a mean streak and some nasty if he ever wants to get past being a #3 on a good team. Keegan is too passive at this point in his career, I would like to see some fire in him.
kingsboi
Hall of Famer
Monte needs to pluck the low hanging fruit that's for the taking whether it be Kuzma or my personal favorite target in Miles Bridges, among others
Padrino
All-Star
It's somehow an underrated storyline this season that the west is a gauntlet of absolutely mammoth proportions. Just have a look at the standings with only a couple games left to play out for most teams:
The Western Conference currently has ten teams sitting at least ten games over .500! And the 11th seed is hovering just below .500! That's insanity. There's only four outright bad teams in the entire conference. One of those is missing their superstar guard, and another features a freakish never-in-a-generation talent who is a soon-to-be Rookie of the Year and All-Defensive selection.
By comparison, the Eastern Conference has seven teams sitting at least ten games over .500, and their 9th and 10th seeds are well below .500. Their bottom two teams are pathetically awful, their bottom third team is perpetually spinning its wheels in lottery-bound mediocrity, and their 4th and 5th worst teams are a confused mess with no clear path up the standings. The east may be home to the best team in the league, but it's not clear that their 2-seed is any better than the west's 5th, 6th, or 7th seeds.
The Kings became a good team at exactly the wrong time, with the west returning to ascendance in such terrifying, domineering fashion. It really draws into stark relief just how damaging it was for the Kings to drop so many winnable games this season. They failed to exploit Eastern Conference bottom feeders, opponents with depleted rosters, and teams with rest disadvantages. You can make it in the east despite that kind of inconsistency (see: Milwaukee, Cleveland, Indiana), but the Western Conference will punish you for it. The Kings are this season's object lesson in why you can't take your foot off the gas pedal for even a moment.
Now, the optimist's outlook is that, in spite of all those unforced errors, and in spite of suffering a couple of late-season injuries, the Kings remain in the playoff picture, in a Western Conference that is so monstrously competitive every single night. And I maintain that this season was always about finding a way to establish a defensive identity, even if it came at the cost of offensive production. That doesn't make it sting any less that the Kings may not even see the first round this year...
The Western Conference currently has ten teams sitting at least ten games over .500! And the 11th seed is hovering just below .500! That's insanity. There's only four outright bad teams in the entire conference. One of those is missing their superstar guard, and another features a freakish never-in-a-generation talent who is a soon-to-be Rookie of the Year and All-Defensive selection.
By comparison, the Eastern Conference has seven teams sitting at least ten games over .500, and their 9th and 10th seeds are well below .500. Their bottom two teams are pathetically awful, their bottom third team is perpetually spinning its wheels in lottery-bound mediocrity, and their 4th and 5th worst teams are a confused mess with no clear path up the standings. The east may be home to the best team in the league, but it's not clear that their 2-seed is any better than the west's 5th, 6th, or 7th seeds.
The Kings became a good team at exactly the wrong time, with the west returning to ascendance in such terrifying, domineering fashion. It really draws into stark relief just how damaging it was for the Kings to drop so many winnable games this season. They failed to exploit Eastern Conference bottom feeders, opponents with depleted rosters, and teams with rest disadvantages. You can make it in the east despite that kind of inconsistency (see: Milwaukee, Cleveland, Indiana), but the Western Conference will punish you for it. The Kings are this season's object lesson in why you can't take your foot off the gas pedal for even a moment.
Now, the optimist's outlook is that, in spite of all those unforced errors, and in spite of suffering a couple of late-season injuries, the Kings remain in the playoff picture, in a Western Conference that is so monstrously competitive every single night. And I maintain that this season was always about finding a way to establish a defensive identity, even if it came at the cost of offensive production. That doesn't make it sting any less that the Kings may not even see the first round this year...
A bit like the Kings team of 2 decades ago and the dominance of the Lakers at the time, except with even more teams this time around.
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