Starting Lineup and minutes distribution?

Tetsujin

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#31
#31
iowamcnabb said:
what is the minimum compensation you would take for the players you are looking to trade?
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Buddy would be at least one first (preferably no to light protections) and a young prospect (Thybulle/Langford/etc.). If the protections are tight then multiple firsts. Shooting has been going at a premium on the market and, warts and all, Buddy still remains one of the premier pure shooters in the league. Also thanks to every GM going insane in the offseason his contract is only bad instead of terrible now.

Bjelica likewise is an elite shooter (until this season that is) and plays the 4/5, which could be valuable to a team with a ball dominant perimeter driver type (Luka/Ja/Simmons/Harden/etc.). He of course comes with the downside of being absolutely horrible on defense and being an aging player on an expiring contract (in other words he’s a rental). In the right situation, he could be extremely valuable to a team. Protected first/seconds + contract filler.

Barnes could be the most valuable of all (and I am also against moving him because of this). His contract wasn’t as bad as people made it out to be when we resigned him last offseason and aside from last night he’s been terrific to start the year. A good spot up shooter, he’s developed an old man game that will translate well to the postseason and generally does whatever your team needs of him to compete. Also he’s got name recognition which could matter to a GM desperate to make it look like he’s making “money moves”. I’d ask for multiple firsts and/or a high quality prospect for him.
 
twslam07

twslam07

All-Star
#33
#33
iowamcnabb said:
what is the minimum compensation you would take for the players you are looking to trade?
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I wouldn’t be looking to dump them for free/cap space.

  • I think Holmes could land a 1st from a contending team
  • Bjelica might be a high 2nd. Could get a late 1st if we send a 2nd back
  • At his current salary, I’d hold onto Hield looking for a mid 1st. He is overpaid but his contract gets better each year so we can be patient
  • Barnes would be around a mid 1st too. he’s overpaid too but like Buddy, it gets better each year

Being overpaid doesn’t mean we won’t be able to find a team who will pay for those guys. Just need to find a desperate team who is locked in above the salary cap for a couple years.
 
twslam07

twslam07

All-Star
#34
#34
KANGZZZ said:
I like most of what you said. However, I personally really like holmes long term because he provides lots of energy and efficiency down low and at free throw line (and ofc when he isn't in foul trouble). I also see the kings keeping barnes for the remaining of his contract because he is actually pretty good all around.

I think we trade beli, cojo, buddy by deadline and summer for an extra mid-round first round pick next year and draft Scottie barnes and Corey Kispert. Sign both lauri markanen and a defensive wing in the offseason.

Boom. Playoffs
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Holmes and Barnes age is what makes me want to move them. Fox, Bagley, and Halliburton are 20-22. We’re likely going to be in a position to draft another 19-20 year old next year.

Our timeline is further out than many care to admit or acknowledge.
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#35
#35
Tetsujin said:
Buddy would be at least one first (preferably no to light protections) and a young prospect (Thybulle/Langford/etc.). If the protections are tight then multiple firsts. Shooting has been going at a premium on the market and, warts and all, Buddy still remains one of the premier pure shooters in the league. Also thanks to every GM going insane in the offseason his contract is only bad instead of terrible now.

Bjelica likewise is an elite shooter (until this season that is) and plays the 4/5, which could be valuable to a team with a ball dominant perimeter driver type (Luka/Ja/Simmons/Harden/etc.). He of course comes with the downside of being absolutely horrible on defense and being an aging player on an expiring contract (in other words he’s a rental). In the right situation, he could be extremely valuable to a team. Protected first/seconds + contract filler.

Barnes could be the most valuable of all (and I am also against moving him because of this). His contract wasn’t as bad as people made it out to be when we resigned him last offseason and aside from last night he’s been terrific to start the year. A good spot up shooter, he’s developed an old man game that will translate well to the postseason and generally does whatever your team needs of him to compete. Also he’s got name recognition which could matter to a GM desperate to make it look like he’s making “money moves”. I’d ask for multiple firsts and/or a high quality prospect for him.
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Bjelica is well respected around the league. But no one wants to match what the Kings are asking. McNair so far making the same mistake he made with Bogi.
 
E

ESP47

All-Star
#36
#36
twslam07 said:
I wouldn’t be looking to dump them for free/cap space.

  • I think Holmes could land a 1st from a contending team
  • Bjelica might be a high 2nd. Could get a late 1st if we send a 2nd back
  • At his current salary, I’d hold onto Hield looking for a mid 1st. He is overpaid but his contract gets better each year so we can be patient
  • Barnes would be around a mid 1st too. he’s overpaid too but like Buddy, it gets better each year

Being overpaid doesn’t mean we won’t be able to find a team who will pay for those guys. Just need to find a desperate team who is locked in above the salary cap for a couple years.
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Do you have any advanced stats on these guys for this year?

To me it looks like Holmes could potentially land a late 1st but it seems pointless because the odds of them getting a better player in that area of the draft are extremely low. Holmes isn't even that old so I would resign him.

Bjelica's play so far makes me think he's not worth anything anymore.

I think the team would have to pay to get rid of Buddy at this point. Semi large contract and he's been one of the worst players in basketball. Huge negative value so far this year.

Barnes has upped his trade value a lot this season by taking a pretty big step forward.
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#37
#37
twslam07 said:
I wouldn’t be looking to dump them for free/cap space.

  • I think Holmes could land a 1st from a contending team
  • Bjelica might be a high 2nd. Could get a late 1st if we send a 2nd back
  • At his current salary, I’d hold onto Hield looking for a mid 1st. He is overpaid but his contract gets better each year so we can be patient
  • Barnes would be around a mid 1st too. he’s overpaid too but like Buddy, it gets better each year

Being overpaid doesn’t mean we won’t be able to find a team who will pay for those guys. Just need to find a desperate team who is locked in above the salary cap for a couple years.
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I’m not sure it makes sense to unload Holmes given his production and likely reasonable contract coming up. Drummond is a 27 year old all star and Cleveland gave a second rounder for him and then traded for his replacement a year later. It doesn’t seem like centers are worth anything unless they are a defensive monster or under 25. I’d probably try to sign him to a reasonable contract and eventually he can come off the bench
 
steelevt

steelevt

All-Star
#38
#38
twslam07 said:
Holmes and Barnes age is what makes me want to move them. Fox, Bagley, and Halliburton are 20-22. We’re likely going to be in a position to draft another 19-20 year old next year.

Our timeline is further out than many care to admit or acknowledge.
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Honest question. Has there been a championship team where all players are young and same age? I swear all those teams or even contenders have an older veteran. I see nothing wrong with holmes or hb being those veterans. It’s not like they’re 32 or 33
 
twslam07

twslam07

All-Star
#39
#39
steelevt said:
Honest question. Has there been a championship team where all players are young and same age? I swear all those teams or even contenders have an older veteran. I see nothing wrong with holmes or hb being those veterans. It’s not like they’re 32 or 33
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I would guess not.

However, that statement doesn’t justify keeping Holmes and Barnes (as you may think).

If your best/star players are 20-22, you’re likely not going to be a championship team. Jordan won his first championship at 28. Lebron at 27. It’s not about building a team that all has the same age. It’s about recognizing...
  • who your star players are
  • how old your stars are
  • when your stars will be in their prime

Fox turned 23 last month, Bagley is 21, Haliburton is 20, and our 2021 1st is probably 18-19. By the time these players hit their primes (around 27/28 years old), Holmes and Barnes will be on the older side.

For example, their age progression would be as follows:
  • 2024-25 Season: Fox (27) / Haliburton (24) / Hield (32) / Barnes (32) / Bagley (25) / Holmes (31) / 2021 1st (23)
  • 2025-26 Season: Fox (28) / Haliburton (25) / Hield (33) / Barnes (33) / Bagley (26) / Holmes (32) / 2021 1st (24)
  • 2026-27 Season: Fox (29) / Haliburton (26) / Hield (34) / Barnes (34) / Bagley (27) / Holmes (33) / 2021 1st (24)
  • 2027-28 Season: Fox (30) / Haliburton (27) / Hield (35) / Barnes (35) / Bagley (28) / Holmes (34) / 2021 1st (25)
By the time our “potential” or “hopeful” stars hit their primes, Hield, Barnes, & Holmes will likely be out of the league, considering retirement, or at the very least have seen a decline in their play.

Let’s be clear. We’re going nowhere unless we have stars. Hield, Barnes, and Holmes are good players but not stars. We need to identify if we have anyone on our team that has star potential. If we do, we need to make moves that would maximize our chances of winning once those stars hit their prime. It’s that simple.
 
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twslam07

twslam07

All-Star
#40
#40
iowamcnabb said:
I’m not sure it makes sense to unload Holmes given his production and likely reasonable contract coming up. Drummond is a 27 year old all star and Cleveland gave a second rounder for him and then traded for his replacement a year later. It doesn’t seem like centers are worth anything unless they are a defensive monster or under 25. I’d probably try to sign him to a reasonable contract and eventually he can come off the bench
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I would imagine his ~$56 mil over 2 years tanked his value. If Holmes was making $28 mil a year, no way we’d get a 1st for him.

A player’s contract matters.
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#41
#41
twslam07 said:
By the time our “potential” or “hopeful” stars hit their primes, Hield, Barnes, & Holmes will likely be out of the league, considering retirement, or at the very least have seen a decline in their play.

Let’s be clear. We’re going nowhere unless we have stars. Hield, Barnes, and Holmes are good players but not stars. We need to identify if we have anyone on our team that has star potential. If we do, we need to make moves that would maximize our chances of winning once those stars hit their prime. It’s that simple.
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I largely agreed with your assessment but would take it a step further, We aren’t winning anything without a superstar. And even then, probably not.

Donovan Mitchell and the big Frenchman are nearly stars and they aren’t winning anything. Diddo Tatum and Brown. Simmons and Embiid. Luka won’t win one with Porzingas. The Nets figured they needed 3 to win one. A bunch of these guys are going to be hall of famers and won’t win a title as currently configured.

I’ve resigned myself to the fact that the NBA just doesn’t allow for teams like the Kings to win a championship. I’m not talking some conspiracy here. It simply comes down to glitz, glamor and status of these large warm weather metros.

I waited a long time for my Eagles and Cubs to win one but won’t hold my breath for one in the NBA. Instead, I’d like to see the Kings get back to winning regularly and at least provide entertainment value. That will have to be good enough for me.
 
twslam07

twslam07

All-Star
#42
#42
ESP47 said:
Do you have any advanced stats on these guys for this year?
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No, the ones I look at are too low of sample right now.

ESP47 said:
To me it looks like Holmes could potentially land a late 1st but it seems pointless because the odds of them getting a better player in that area of the draft are extremely low. Holmes isn't even that old so I would resign him.
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I think it's a bit pointless to keep someone who will be 31-34 when our young guys hit their prime. We need stars to win and looking at history, you need your stars to be in their prime. Would rather move Holmes now for an asset that could help when our young guys hit their prime.

Also, what makes you think Holmes resigns with us? He could go elsewhere since he's UFA or we could end up overpaying him which now makes him a bad contract.

ESP47 said:
Bjelica's play so far makes me think he's not worth anything anymore.
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That might be so, but it's also been a small sample size.

ESP47 said:
I think the team would have to pay to get rid of Buddy at this point. Semi large contract and he's been one of the worst players in basketball. Huge negative value so far this year.
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Hield has had a rough start to the season (particularly his shooting), but I think it would be foolish to believe what we have seen in the first 10+ games vs. the seasons and seasons of data we have to look at for Hield. I'm confident his shot will come back.

I think his defense has been better this year so that's given me hope, and he's been limiting his turnovers while still maintaining respectable assist numbers. If he keeps it up in these other areas and his shot gets back to levels we know it can, he is a useful player. Overpaid? Yes, but useful.

I'm not saying we need to move him immediately. With his declining contract, his overpaid status should hopefully look better over time.

Lastly, I would generally agree that many likely look at him as a negative value. I think we just need to stay patient and find a team that's desperate and is over the cap already for the next few years (meaning the overpaid nature of Hield doesn't hurt as much). Like I could see Hield to MIL as something that makes sense. Hield's elite shooting could be much more impactful than DiVincenzo while them still having Holiday, Middleton, Giannis, & Lopez to anchor the defense.

ESP47 said:
Barnes has upped his trade value a lot this season by taking a pretty big step forward.
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Yeah he's been playing great. Hopefully he nets us something attractive ;)
 
twslam07

twslam07

All-Star
#43
#43
iowamcnabb said:
I largely agreed with your assessment but would take it a step further, We aren’t winning anything without a superstar. And even then, probably not.

Donovan Mitchell and the big Frenchman are nearly stars and they aren’t winning anything. Diddo Tatum and Brown. Simmons and Embiid. Luka won’t win one with Porzingas. The Nets figured they needed 3 to win one. A bunch of these guys are going to be hall of famers and won’t win a title as currently configured.

I’ve resigned myself to the fact that the NBA just doesn’t allow for teams like the Kings to win a championship. I’m not talking some conspiracy here. It simply comes down to glitz, glamor and status of these large warm weather metros.

I waited a long time for my Eagles and Cubs to win one but won’t hold my breath for one in the NBA. Instead, I’d like to see the Kings get back to winning regularly and at least provide entertainment value. That will have to be good enough for me.
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But let's look at the examples you gave...
  • Mitchell & Gobert: Mitchell is 24 and Gobert is 28. Gobert is in his prime but Mitchell is likely still working his way there. He was drafted in the same draft as Fox. I would imagine a 28-30 year old Mitchell would be noticeably better than a 24 year old Mitchell. Jazz should be looking at Mitchell's prime as a window for them. I will say that I don't think Gobert and Mitchell has enough star talent to win a championship but that has more to do with me viewing Gobert as the 3rd best player on a contender.
  • Tatum & Brown: Tatum is 22 and Brown is 24. Again, they are years away from their prime. Their window is not closed. It's only beginning.
  • Simmons & Embiid: Simmons is 24 and Embiid is 26. Embiid is likely just entering his prime and Simmons is still a few years away. Similar situation to BOS but a couple years further along. Their window is not closed
  • Doncic & Porzingis: Doncic is 21 and Porzingis is 25. I don't know if Porzingis is good enough to be the 2nd best player on a contender, but even if he was, he doesn't seem to stay healthy enough for it to matter, but Doncic at 21 means they have quite a long window to try and find the necessary stars to put around him to make a run at a title in the future.

The best teams in the league have the following tandems...

  • Giannis, Middleton, & Holiday: Giannis is 26, Middleton is 29, and Holiday is 30.
  • Irving, Harden, & Durant: Irving is 28, Harden is 31, & Durant is 32.
  • Davis & Lebron: Davis is 27 & LeBron is 36
  • Leonard & George: Leonard is 29 & George is 30

Now I'm sure there's always exceptions to the rule, but you tend to not see championship teams led by stars before they enter their prime

EDIT: And Fox doesn't strike me as being so dominant pre-prime that it would make sense trying to push to be a championship contender. Now if you have someone like LeBron or Doncic be as dominant as they were in their 1st or 2nd year, then yeah maybe, but those guys are few and far between and we (unfortunately) chose to pass on one of those guys in the draft.
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#44
#44
twslam07 said:
Now I'm sure there's always exceptions to the rule, but you tend to not see championship teams led by stars before they enter their prime.
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Fair enough, there is certainly time for those teams/players. Some of this is Lebron fatigue since he has his hand in nearly every Finals. As good as it is for basketball to have a Lebron or Jordan or Kobe/Shaq, I look forward to a stretch where a few more teams have a legit shot at a ‘ship.
 
steelevt

steelevt

All-Star
#45
#45
twslam07 said:
.

The best teams in the league have the following tandems...

  • Giannis, Middleton, & Holiday: Giannis is 26, Middleton is 29, and Holiday is 30.
  • Irving, Harden, & Durant: Irving is 28, Harden is 31, & Durant is 32.
  • Davis & Lebron: Davis is 27 & LeBron is 36
  • Leonard & George: Leonard is 29 & George is 30

Now I'm sure there's always exceptions to the rule, but you tend to not see championship teams led by stars before they enter their prime
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it’s sad. Besides giannis. I don’t think any of those guys are on the team that drafted them
 
T

Turgenev

Starter
#48
#48
I'll echo those arguing Whiteside should get more minutes. He seems to be one of the few (only?) players that can make an impact defensively. Given that we are no good on that end, and that he has contributed for multiple playoff teams, seems 20-25 minutes/ game should be justifiable.

On MBIII. I think he's developing well. But he's looking more like a long term four than a five to me, at least on D.
 
L

luckytkp

Bench
#49
#49
Turgenev said:
I'll echo those arguing Whiteside should get more minutes. He seems to be one of the few (only?) players that can make an impact defensively. Given that we are no good on that end, and that he has contributed for multiple playoff teams, seems 20-25 minutes/ game should be justifiable.

On MBIII. I think he's developing well. But he's looking more like a long term four than a five to me, at least on D.
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The sad thing is our coach doesn't think Whiteside is good enough.
 
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