Smith or Tatum

[dude12]

Smith or Isaac if Fox isn't there. I'm fine with either but I give a slight edge to Smith.
The guy is relentless on O and breaks down the D with ease.. Imagine the drives and dishes to Buddy/Bog/Skal.. I'm sure Joeger can help bring that same fierceness out of him on the defensive end.


Tatum bores me as a player and seems like a black hole. Every time he gets the ball the other four guys stand around..
Plus we have Richardson and Bog whom might be able to hold down the SF position in today's league.
Also, There's like 6 SF's in the top 15 for next years draft and we'll probably get a chance to draft one.

With all this being said, I feel like Vlade should do whatever he can to guarantee getting Fox. Trade into the top 3 maybe?

Agreed on assessment of Smith......star potential on offense at a position where we have been deficient. He's a guy who could be the best player in this draft 3 years from now......how many guys can you really say that about?

 

[ESP47]

Not trying to pick on you ESP47 but I think "swinging for the fences" is the wrong term. This implies undue risk. The Kings traded away the most talented player in franchise history for $0.50 on the dollar. They were fortunate to parlay the panicked Boogie trade into 5th and 10th pick in a LOADED draft. Now they need to cash in those assets. That is NOT going to happen by "swinging for fences" when likely to strike out as much (or more) as hit home run. The Kings have to do reward vs risk analysis on each prospect, and choose player that checks the most boxes in the positive column relative to the negative column. This is "educated guessing game" more than a "guessing game" especially with the abundance of data and resources available to the casual fan.

I remember last year when "draft gurus" were projecting Buddy as a back-up in NBA. They were questioning his length and hops and discounting his production because of his age. I scoffed at this because I saw a superior shot maker who set records for efficiency (65% TS), who changed ends well, had polished footwork to create space. Then when I heard interviews it was obvious he was a good kid with superior attitude and work ethic which portends continued improvement. This reduces risk. The reason I mention this is I get opposite sense in regards to Smith Jr. when I hear his interview. That doesn't mean it won't pan out or he is a bad kid. But it does mean you are incurring another degree of risk in reward to risk equation. One more thing with these players is positional versatility. Isaac projects as combo forward who can switch to SGs and even check 5s when he gets stronger. This would be extraordinary! He looks like a guy who can guard anywhere on the floor. By contrast Smith has NO positional versatility. He plays one position. So this affects risk to reward ratio favorably for one player and unfavorably for other.

Again this does not mean Smith won't or can't be a star in the league but probabilities get dimmer. Isaiah Thomas's don't enter the league everyday. This is another reason the call is easy in my mind to take Isaac before Smith. The real question is would you take Isaac over Tatum??? If Fox is gone, this may be the biggest draft day decision the Kings face.

You aren't picking on me. What you're doing is taking my entire post, quoting 4 words out of it (out of context I might add) and then responding to me as if that was all I had posted in the first place.

You're making it seem like I want to close my eyes and swing for the fences. That would incur just picking Smith without taking the pros and cons into consideration. What I mean by swinging for the fences is that Isaac is more likely to have a Trevor Ariza type career IMO. Which is perfectly fine but that's not going to turn your franchise around so I would never pick him at 5. I could be wrong and he could turn out to be Kawhi lite or something at some point but I think the odds of him being Trevor Ariza are exponentially higher than him being like Kawhi.

On the other hand I think Smith could be more in the Kyrie Irving mold. That's not exactly what I want out of the #5 pick but if I had to choose between him or Ariza to start a rebuild, I'd start with him. Now the odds of him turning into something like Kyrie aren't huge but they are higher than Isaac turning into Kawhi. On the other hand, I think Smith could flame out at a higher percentage than Isaac could. So in order to try and turn this franchise around, I would "swing for the fences" and pick the guy that I think has the highest probability of becoming a game changer. If he is a bust then it was another bad pick but I would be kicking myself if I landed Ariza over Irving because I wanted to play it safe.

At some point you need a guy that can just go out and make it happen. I see Isaac as a great complimentary piece but I want to take a complimentary piece at 10 with an on court leader at 5. If Fox is gone I would go back and forth on Tatum and Smith but I wouldn't take Isaac before either. If he's still there at 10, I would scoop him up in a second but that's probably doubtful.

 

[Blob]

You aren't picking on me. What you're doing is taking my entire post, quoting 4 words out of it (out of context I might add) and then responding to me as if that was all I had posted in the first place.

You're making it seem like I want to close my eyes and swing for the fences. That would incur just picking Smith without taking the pros and cons into consideration. What I mean by swinging for the fences is that Isaac is more likely to have a Trevor Ariza type career IMO. Which is perfectly fine but that's not going to turn your franchise around so I would never pick him at 5. I could be wrong and he could turn out to be Kawhi lite or something at some point but I think the odds of him being Trevor Ariza are exponentially higher than him being like Kawhi.

On the other hand I think Smith could be more in the Kyrie Irving mold. That's not exactly what I want out of the #5 pick but if I had to choose between him or Ariza to start a rebuild, I'd start with him. Now the odds of him turning into something like Kyrie aren't huge but they are higher than Isaac turning into Kawhi. On the other hand, I think Smith could flame out at a higher percentage than Isaac could. So in order to try and turn this franchise around, I would "swing for the fences" and pick the guy that I think has the highest probability of becoming a game changer. If he is a bust then it was another bad pick but I would be kicking myself if I landed Ariza over Irving because I wanted to play it safe.

At some point you need a guy that can just go out and make it happen. I see Isaac as a great complimentary piece but I want to take a complimentary piece at 10 with an on court leader at 5. If Fox is gone I would go back and forth on Tatum and Smith but I wouldn't take Isaac before either. If he's still there at 10, I would scoop him up in a second but that's probably doubtful.

The Suns fans are in a fair consensus over at the Bright Side of the Sun that Isaac is the best player for them at #4 and their GM would take that type of player. Isaac is much longer than Ariza. I don't see the comparison.

I also think Donovan Mitchell (who I just started a new thread on) is a better prospect than Dennis Smith Jr. Check him out and tell me what you think.

EDIT: And in this draft which is being declared the best since 2003 in the Top 10, you go for two stars at #5 and #10. Why aim low for "a complementary piece"? I think perhaps you just got an attachment for Smith because he has an impressive vertical. But I am telling you I strongly believe that you and others are overrating him and this will be played out soon enough. If you watch Donovan you will see he has similar aggressiveness as an offensive player who can drive into seams and make plays in traffic. But he's more potent defender who can defend three positions.

He has the physicality and the attitude. He would probably lock down Smith with ease.

 

[Telemachus]

Agreed on assessment of Smith......star potential on offense at a position where we have been deficient. He's a guy who could be the best player in this draft 3 years from now......how many guys can you really say that about?

Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Fox
Jackson
Issac
Smith

 

[Telemachus]

Agreed on assessment of Smith......star potential on offense at a position where we have been deficient. He's a guy who could be the best player in this draft 3 years from now......how many guys can you really say that about?

Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Fox
Jackson
Issac
Smith

 

[roasthawg]

https://medium.com/@jzmazlish/jayso...cally-overrated-player-archetype-ce1cac255b06


https://medium.com/@jzmazlish/jonathan-isaac-is-the-best-big-man-in-this-draft-class-4a92c8f53f84

This guy doesn't like Tatum in the top five and has Isaac number three overall... Only problem is he likes Isaac as a four/five rather than a three.

 

[kingsfan1984]

The Suns fans are in a fair consensus over at the Bright Side of the Sun that Isaac is the best player for them at #4 and their GM would take that type of player. Isaac is much longer than Ariza. I don't see the comparison.

I also think Donovan Mitchell (who I just started a new thread on) is a better prospect than Dennis Smith Jr. Check him out and tell me what you think.

EDIT: And in this draft which is being declared the best since 2003 in the Top 10, you go for two stars at #5 and #10. Why aim low for "a complementary piece"? I think perhaps you just got an attachment for Smith because he has an impressive vertical. But I am telling you I strongly believe that you and others are overrating him and this will be played out soon enough. If you watch Donovan you will see he has similar aggressiveness as an offensive player who can drive into seams and make plays in traffic. But he's more potent defender who can defend three positions.

He has the physicality and the attitude. He would probably lock down Smith with ease.

Warming up to Mitchell at 10

 

[twslam07]

I'll open up a new thread and make the poll non-biased so it has more than two options.

 

[206Fan]

Darren has plenty of moves. He's just not flashy about it. He is very fundamentally sound. You don't score 13 PPG on 57% TS by having no moves or not using your speed. By the way Dennis Smith Jr scored at 56.3% TS. So Darren was more efficient scorer in off an off year for him against NBA defenders than Smith against ACC defenders. There are SO many red flags with this guy from attitude to length to injury to isolation tendencies, I am starting to sour on him at #10 if he slides there.

When you say his "defense is going to suck" you make my argument for me. The Kings cannot afford to put someone at PG who consistently allows dribble penetration and unable or close out on shooters or rotate to help. How many years have we have been BOTTOM 5 defensively?!?? I said in previous thread that drafting Smith at #5 would be front office gross negligence given his projected defensive ability. Fortunately I think the Kings have seen enough wide open threes and matador defense to make more prudent judgements.

I would actually be surprised if Smith Jr. even comes to Sacramento for a workout. We'll see.

Not sure why you would compare their TS% at all.... DSJ is much more talented than DC. They are not similar PGs at all, so comparisons look awkward. Isolations coming from a PG aren't bad... to add onto that, it wasn't like he was a poor distributor or a ball hog. He averaged 6.2APG, higher than Fox(4.6APG) and Fultz (5.9APG).


Just FYI, most similar PGs to Smith on offense based on offensive possessions are: Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Jamaal Crawford, Jimmy Butler, and Russell Westbrook.

 

[206Fan]

Assigning a label to Isaac of "3&D" does not make the label valid. Isaac has a good jab step. He will be able to get defenders to back off or use his jab to freeze the defender and blow by. There was also a beautiful play in which Isaac took ball full court and split a trap kept balance and dribble and finished around a third defender for lay-up. This indicates he may be capable of more than 3&D. I look for (1) length (2) balance (3) ability to create separation when I scout. Isaac checks out well in all three categories. When you see Isaac and conclude "3&D" you are selling him short.

The point of comparing efficiency between Smith and DC was rebuttal to "Collison has NO moves". Collison is playing against NBA defenders. Smith Jr is playing against future accountants. You can correctly say Collison has more experience but he's playing against the best players in the world. Smith needs to be extraordinary offensive player to compensate for projected issues on defense. I don't think guy with a busted ACL (which hinders lateral mobility), average shot, subpar length projects as an unstoppable scoring force. And guess what? His athleticism is not going to stand out so much against NBA players. I will bet he gets locked down often. With his tunnel vision, I think he will force shots, then struggle on the other end.

Of course he can be successful player if all turns his way, but the probabilities are not great given the variables I have detailed. In fact I would not be surprised in Smith Jr falls out of the Top 10.

Dude. I can't wait to come back 1 year from now and point out how wrong you are. like why would you even compare DC's success in the NBA to Smiths? Those 2 guys are nothing alike. They play nothing alike. That comparison is just straight up strange as hell. I also don't even know why you question if his athleticism will translate............. dude. how does athleticism not translate? give me 1 player who was extremely athletic and explosive in college, but lost it in the NBA? His hops looked perfectly fine at NCST.

I honestly can't even believe you said Donovan Mitchell was a better prospect than DSJ... then suggest he can play PG. Dude. Your entire reasonings made me change my answer from Tatum to DSJ. Lots of outrageous things being said that aren't true at all.

 

[funkykingston]

I don't see Smith as similar to Collison at all either. Marbury is the player that comes to mind for me. That seems like a knock but Marbury was supremely talented. A change in mentality and maybe he's a HOF player instead of a legend in China.

I could see Smith having a similarly disappointing career or being the player Marbury could have been. Assuming his knee holds up and he avoids other major injuries. Far from a given with his attacking style.

 

[Mass]

Smith is the player who scares me the most. I would be ok with him at 8, but not at 5. Too risky, and I just don't have a good feeling about him. I'd take Tatum 100 times out of 100. But I'd also take Isaac before Smith. Yes he has talent, but there are too many "if" about him.

 

[dude12]

Vlade had better come away with Fox or Smith in this draft. I suppose Frank would be ok but Fox and Smith have star potential. Is why you play the draft. We have to have a PG when this draft is over. It's a PG league, we need an upper tier guy...we know Lawson or DC are not that, we need to draft and develop,one of these rookies more than we need a SF.....unless somehow Josh Jackson falls

 

[ESP47]

Vlade had better come away with Fox or Smith in this draft. I suppose Frank would be ok but Fox and Smith have star potential. Is why you play the draft. We have to have a PG when this draft is over. It's a PG league, we need an upper tier guy...we know Lawson or DC are not that, we need to draft and develop,one of these rookies more than we need a SF.....unless somehow Josh Jackson falls

If your two options were Tatum and Frank or Fox and Markkanen, who would you take?

First option has two solid guys that could become two way players, but neither might not be the "franchise". Second option has a guy that might be the franchise but he's paired with a guy who doesn't fill a need and doesn't play defense either.

 

[funkykingston]

If your two options were Tatum and Frank or Fox and Markkanen, who would you take?

First option has two solid guys that could become two way players, but neither might not be the "franchise". Second option has a guy that might be the franchise but he's paired with a guy who doesn't fill a need and doesn't play defense either.

I was thinking about this. Fox needs shooters around him so Markkanen isn't a bad complimentary piece. He's limited but does have one elite skill that the Kings could use.

Tatum needs the ball to be effective so Ntilikina is a good compliment there. I'd prefer Fox & Markkanen and am not a fan of Tatum but either pairing could work well.

 

[dude12]

I wo

If your two options were Tatum and Frank or Fox and Markkanen, who would you take?

First option has two solid guys that could become two way players, but neither might not be the "franchise". Second option has a guy that might be the franchise but he's paired with a guy who doesn't fill a need and doesn't play defense either.

I would take Fox or Smith at 5. I'm not as high on Frank as some. Fox and Smith can be franchise PGs, don't believe that to be true of Frank. I'd take BPA at 10, I don't think Markannen survives to 10 but would take him or Collins because of the outside shooting ability. We might not fill the small forward spot in this draft but we need to fill the PG spot.

 

[upinsmoke]

I wo

I would take Fox or Smith at 5. I'm not as high on Frank as some. Fox and Smith can be franchise PGs, don't believe that to be true of Frank. I'd take BPA at 10, I don't think Markannen survives to 10 but would take him or Collins because of the outside shooting ability. We might not fill the small forward spot in this draft but we need to fill the PG spot.

Where would any big find mins in our rotation? Behind WCS, Skal, KK and Papagiannis there is no burn. There will be a SF there at 10 I know I might sound like a broken record but OG could be a perfect fit.

 

[dude12]

Where would any big find mins in our rotation? Behind WCS, Skal, KK and Papagiannis there is no burn. There will be a SF there at 10 I know I might sound like a broken record but OG could be a perfect fit.

You don't turn away best player available if those 2 guys can be better than what we currently have. Not saying OG can't be that but at this point, both Markannen and Collins are rated fairly high.