Scouts analysis of the top 50

[KingsFanSince85]

Seth Davis interviewed 5 different NBA scouts and asked them for their "unvarnished" opinions of the top 50 draft prospects. While not terribly in-depth, there are some interesting evaluations there: https://sethsdrafthouse.com/finch-returns-to-dish-on-nba-prospects-fa57b7c494ef

Since we've talked about the top 6 or 7 ad nauseam, I thought I'd highlight a player that's not expected to be drafted until after the lottery anywhere up to the 2nd round. That player is Jordan Bell.

I mentioned him here months ago. The scouts take on him below is why he intrigues me for the Kings. I don't necessarily agree with the undersized comment, as we've seen smaller and smaller players playing the 4 and 5 positions in recent years. I think Bell could become a Draymond Green type defensive talent due to his versatility. Offense is another story, but perhaps he could be developed there. I don't think he'll be there at #34, but perhaps the Kings could find a way to move up into the 20's or maybe even trade down from #10 to get 2 lower picks.

Scouts take on Bell:

Jordan Bell, 6’8” junior forward, Oregon
“He’s one of my favorite players in the draft. He could be a switch monster because of his ability to defend multiple positions. He’s probably a better shooter than we saw at Oregon. He’s a hot name. He’s undersized four, but he’s just such a ridiculous athlete.”

Feel free to comment on any of the players evaluated in Seth Davis' article.

 

[roasthawg]

Seth Davis interviewed 5 different NBA scouts and asked them for their "unvarnished" opinions of the top 50 draft prospects. While not terribly in-depth, there are some interesting evaluations there: https://sethsdrafthouse.com/finch-returns-to-dish-on-nba-prospects-fa57b7c494ef

Since we've talked about the top 6 or 7 ad nauseam, I thought I'd highlight a player that's not expected to be drafted until after the lottery anywhere up to the 2nd round. That player is Jordan Bell.

I mentioned him here months ago. The scouts take on him below is why he intrigues me for the Kings. I don't necessarily agree with the undersized comment, as we've seen smaller and smaller players playing the 4 and 5 positions in recent years. I think Bell could become a Draymond Green type defensive talent due to his versatility. Offense is another story, but perhaps he could be developed there. I don't think he'll be there at #34, but perhaps the Kings could find a way to move up into the 20's or maybe even trade down from #10 to get 2 lower picks.

Scouts take on Bell:

Jordan Bell, 6’8” junior forward, Oregon
“He’s one of my favorite players in the draft. He could be a switch monster because of his ability to defend multiple positions. He’s probably a better shooter than we saw at Oregon. He’s a hot name. He’s undersized four, but he’s just such a ridiculous athlete.”

Feel free to comment on any of the players evaluated in Seth Davis' article.

Lot of good stuff there, thanks for posting!

 

[Jimbob]

I also really enjoyed the article. He confirmed my belief in Mitchell, gave some good love to Markkanen whom I have not been high on, but more than anyone he praised Tatum. Tatum has been my biggest fear of drafting at 5 and hes a very realistic possibility to go there. Comparing a player to the next Melo is a bit of a double edged sword in my opinion, still I will take it as a compliment.

 

[roasthawg]

I also really enjoyed the article. He confirmed my belief in Mitchell, gave some good love to Markkanen whom I have not been high on, but more than anyone he praised Tatum. Tatum has been my biggest fear of drafting at 5 and hes a very realistic possibility to go there. Comparing a player to the next Melo is a bit of a double edged sword in my opinion, still I will take it as a compliment.

I think it's multiple scouts takes in one paragraph. The Tatum one started out calling him Carmelo but it went downhill after that.

 

[Sam0ah]

I really like what the scout says about Ball. Its exactly what I see when I watch his film. I don't see him slipping to us.
Lonzo Ball, 6’6” freshman guard, UCLA
“I couldn’t care less about the dad. This isn’t Little League. Everybody loves playing with players who get them the ball where they like it and control the pace of the game. He’s stronger than people give him credit for. I’m not really sure how he’s going to get a pullup jumper off the dribble. The only way he can get that jumper off is with a stepback. Obviously, he’s a really good passer. What makes him so good is his mind. If he’s the best player on your team, you’re in trouble, but if he’s the second or third best, you can win big with him. He’s going to have a hard time guarding point guards, but his defensive instincts off the ball are unbelievable.”

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I also really enjoyed the article. He confirmed my belief in Mitchell, gave some good love to Markkanen whom I have not been high on, but more than anyone he praised Tatum. Tatum has been my biggest fear of drafting at 5 and hes a very realistic possibility to go there. Comparing a player to the next Melo is a bit of a double edged sword in my opinion, still I will take it as a compliment.

I think it's multiple scouts takes in one paragraph. The Tatum one started out calling him Carmelo but it went downhill after that.

Right. These comments weren't from Seth Davis himself, but from the 5 scouts he interviewed. He explains below:

Finch, as many of you know, is an amalgam of five NBA scouts whom I interviewed in recent days. Just as I have over the last several years, I asked these scouts to give me their unvarnished opinions of 50 draftable players. In return, I granted them total anonymity and melded their comments into a single character whom I call Finch. I took the name from my erstwhile Sports Illustrated colleague Alex Wolff, who applied it to an anonymous NBA scout for a profile in the magazine many years ago.

 

[Jimbob]

A couple other players I found interesting were OG Anunoby and Jordan Bell. The consensus was not favorable for OG, which I found interesting as there's been mention of him on this board as a SF solution.
Scouts seem high on Bell with comments he can defend multiple positions and is a ridiculous athlete. He seems to shoot better than previously thought and at 6'8 I wonder the likelihood of him adapting to the SF position.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

He seems to shoot better than previously thought and at 6'8 I wonder the likelihood of him adapting to the SF position.

I think he's a PF in today's game. And especially when you're competing against GSW in your own division.

 

[hrdboild]

I disagree with the comments on some of the top guys: Calling Jayson Tatum the next Melo seems very optimistic. Melo averaged 22 and 10 as a Freshman and led Syracuse to a National championship then came into the league and was a 20ppg game guy as a teenager and only went up from there. I'm not seeing that level of day-one stardom from him at all. His production compares more to someone like Andrew Wiggins in college which is a more realistic estimation of his potential as a scorer, but I wonder if he can be as successful as even Wiggins has been without that standout athleticism.

They didn't have much to say about Isaac. Everybody loves his size, shooting, and defensive potential -- I don't see passiveness as his main issue though. He's very active on defense it's just not always focused in the right direction. He's going to sink or swim based on his ability to comprehend the 5 man game because FSU didn't play a lot of effective team ball this year. I'd feel a lot better about him if he'd played somewhere like Kentucky where the smart players generally find a way to excel. Same thing with Dennis Smith -- maybe he just needs a better coach. But what if he's uncoachable? How would you know based on what happened last year?

And this comment about Josh Jackson was pretty funny to me:

"He’s my favorite player in this draft...If he’s able to shoot, he’ll be a Grant Hill or an Iguodala. If he doesn’t[sic], he’ll be like Corey Brewer, which is still pretty good.”

It is?! If the best player in the draft is the next Corey Brewer we're in big trouble. I hope whichever scout made those comments about Tatum and Jackson is working for one of the teams drafting above us. The takes on Lonzo Ball and De'Aaron Fox were reasonable. The Markkanen projection is what I hope Minnesota and Dallas are seeing -- if you look at him in terms of his one elite skill being pretty rock solid and also the most valued skill in the NBA at the moment, he probably has to be a top 10 guy doesn't he?

I also really like Bam Adebayo -- I actually wouldn't be upset with him at 10 either even though it's higher than he's currently projected. He's clearly an NBA athlete and he was a beast inside as a Freshman even though it looks like his body could fill out quite a bit more as he matures. My crazy optimistic projection is a poor man's Dwight Howard which would make him one of the best value picks in the draft.

I don't understand why Anunoby being a 3/4 is seen as a negative but the comparatively smaller and less athletic Dillon Brooks is a "great four man". That seems contradictory to me. I do agree with the general sentiment that this draft is pretty thin on top-end talent though. A lot of these guys are nowhere near as impressive as I thought they were two months ago. I find myself more intrigued by the potential of some of the later sleepers like Jawun Evans, Frank Mason, Jonathan Motley, Semi Ojeleye, and Cam Oliver than a lot of the names in the top 10.

Donovan Mitchell has been one of the fastest risers -- I somehow managed to miss watching him entirely. What's going on with his draft stock, is it just people convincing themselves that he can stick at PG and that his size is an asset rather than a detriment in that context?

 

[roasthawg]

I disagree with the comments on some of the top guys: Calling Jayson Tatum the next Melo seems very optimistic. Melo averaged 22 and 10 as a Freshman and led Syracuse to a National championship then came into the league and was a 20ppg game guy as a teenager and only went up from there. I'm not seeing that level of day-one stardom from him at all. His production compares more to someone like Andrew Wiggins in college which is a more realistic estimation of his potential as a scorer, but I wonder if he can be as successful as even Wiggins has been without that standout athleticism.

They didn't have much to say about Isaac. Everybody loves his size, shooting, and defensive potential -- I don't see passiveness as his main issue though. He's very active on defense it's just not always focused in the right direction. He's going to sink or swim based on his ability to comprehend the 5 man game because FSU didn't play a lot of effective team ball this year. I'd feel a lot better about him if he'd played somewhere like Kentucky where the smart players generally find a way to excel. Same thing with Dennis Smith -- maybe he just needs a better coach. But what if he's uncoachable? How would you know based on what happened last year?

And this comment about Josh Jackson was pretty funny to me:



It is?! If the best player in the draft is the next Corey Brewer we're in big trouble. I hope whichever scout made those comments about Tatum and Jackson is working for one of the teams drafting above us. The takes on Lonzo Ball and De'Aaron Fox were reasonable. The Markkanen projection is what I hope Minnesota and Dallas are seeing -- if you look at him in terms of his one elite skill being pretty rock solid and also the most valued skill in the NBA at the moment, he probably has to be a top 10 guy doesn't he?

I also really like Bam Adebayo -- I actually wouldn't be upset with him at 10 either even though it's higher than he's currently projected. He's clearly an NBA athlete and he was a beast inside as a Freshman even though it looks like his body could fill out quite a bit more as he matures. My crazy optimistic projection is a poor man's Dwight Howard which would make him one of the best value picks in the draft.

I don't understand why Anunoby being a 3/4 is seen as a negative but the comparatively smaller and less athletic Dillon Brooks is a "great four man". That seems contradictory to me. I do agree with the general sentiment that this draft is pretty thin on top-end talent though. A lot of these guys are nowhere near as impressive as I thought they were two months ago. I find myself more intrigued by the potential of some of the later sleepers like Jawun Evans, Frank Mason, Jonathan Motley, Semi Ojeleye, and Cam Oliver than a lot of the names in the top 10.

Donovan Mitchell has been one of the fastest risers -- I somehow managed to miss watching him entirely. What's going on with his draft stock, is it just people convincing themselves that he can stick at PG and that his size is an asset rather than a detriment in that context?

I thought that take on Josh Jackson being the next Corey Brewer and that being ok was funny too.

The thing to remember about this write up is that it's a bunch of tid bits from five different scouts pieced together... So you'll get things like one guy calling Tatum the next melo and another guy saying he might struggle to score. Not sure if you were aware of that while you were reading thru... I missed it the first time myself.

 

[hrdboild]

I thought that take on Josh Jackson being the next Corey Brewer and that being ok was funny too.

The thing to remember about this write up is that it's a bunch of tid bits from five different scouts pieced together... So you'll get things like one guy calling Tatum the next melo and another guy saying he might struggle to score. Not sure if you were aware of that while you were reading thru... I missed it the first time myself.

Yeah, I read the other comments in this thread first and figured that out but it still makes for a difficult read. As an exercise in clarifying what real scouts are saying about these kids I think it's actually counterproductive to mash them all together in this format. It makes it sound like professional scouts don't have a clue what they're talking about. I don't know why the author didn't just format it like a round table discussion instead with Scout #1's take, Scout #2's take, etc. for each player. It would still be anonymous and at least that wouldn't give the erroneous impression that these disparate comments are all somehow consistent with each other.

 

[Jimbob]

I disagree with the comments on some of the top guys: Calling Jayson Tatum the next Melo seems very optimistic. Melo averaged 22 and 10 as a Freshman and led Syracuse to a National championship then came into the league and was a 20ppg game guy as a teenager and only went up from there. I'm not seeing that level of day-one stardom from him at all. His production compares more to someone like Andrew Wiggins in college which is a more realistic estimation of his potential as a scorer, but I wonder if he can be as successful as even Wiggins has been without that standout athleticism.

They didn't have much to say about Isaac. Everybody loves his size, shooting, and defensive potential -- I don't see passiveness as his main issue though. He's very active on defense it's just not always focused in the right direction. He's going to sink or swim based on his ability to comprehend the 5 man game because FSU didn't play a lot of effective team ball this year. I'd feel a lot better about him if he'd played somewhere like Kentucky where the smart players generally find a way to excel. Same thing with Dennis Smith -- maybe he just needs a better coach. But what if he's uncoachable? How would you know based on what happened last year?

And this comment about Josh Jackson was pretty funny to me:



It is?! If the best player in the draft is the next Corey Brewer we're in big trouble. I hope whichever scout made those comments about Tatum and Jackson is working for one of the teams drafting above us. The takes on Lonzo Ball and De'Aaron Fox were reasonable. The Markkanen projection is what I hope Minnesota and Dallas are seeing -- if you look at him in terms of his one elite skill being pretty rock solid and also the most valued skill in the NBA at the moment, he probably has to be a top 10 guy doesn't he?

I also really like Bam Adebayo -- I actually wouldn't be upset with him at 10 either even though it's higher than he's currently projected. He's clearly an NBA athlete and he was a beast inside as a Freshman even though it looks like his body could fill out quite a bit more as he matures. My crazy optimistic projection is a poor man's Dwight Howard which would make him one of the best value picks in the draft.

I don't understand why Anunoby being a 3/4 is seen as a negative but the comparatively smaller and less athletic Dillon Brooks is a "great four man". That seems contradictory to me. I do agree with the general sentiment that this draft is pretty thin on top-end talent though. A lot of these guys are nowhere near as impressive as I thought they were two months ago. I find myself more intrigued by the potential of some of the later sleepers like Jawun Evans, Frank Mason, Jonathan Motley, Semi Ojeleye, and Cam Oliver than a lot of the names in the top 10.

Donovan Mitchell has been one of the fastest risers -- I somehow managed to miss watching him entirely. What's going on with his draft stock, is it just people convincing themselves that he can stick at PG and that his size is an asset rather than a detriment in that context?

I appreciate your mentioning Bam Adebayo, Juwan Evans and Oliver. That's who I picked at 19, 31 and 60 for Atlanta in the kingsfan.com mock draft 2017. I thought I would get a little more love than I did for those picks considering team needs....

 

[hrdboild]

I didn't follow the mock draft that was going on here, but you get high marks from me for getting all three of those guys! It's sortof the nature of a sleeper though that they're not going to be fairly rated by most fans before the draft so your reward is maybe more personal satisfaction and having a little extra incentive to follow their careers from here on out.

 

[biltalent]

Donovan Mitchell has been one of the fastest risers -- I somehow managed to miss watching him entirely. What's going on with his draft stock, is it just people convincing themselves that he can stick at PG and that his size is an asset rather than a detriment in that context?

Re Mitchell:

I think a lot has to do with how the playoffs went and the way the NBA is trending in general. Teams are going away from the idea that the guy you play at the one has to be responsible for everything you do on offense. Neither the Warriors, Cavs, Spurs, Rockets etc play that way. You could probably play Mitchell on all of this teams at the 1 and none of them would have to change their strategy entirely.
And even on the Celtics and Thunder, where you have a ball dominant point guard, Mitchell would make a lot sense as you just put him at the 2. In fact both the Celtics and the Thunder already have guys at the 2 that Mitchell compares to favorably: Boston has Smart/Bradley and OKC has Oladipo. I think they are exactly the player archetype that Mitchell will grow into.

So once you accept, as you said, that his size is more of an asset, his other positives comes into play:
- crushed the combine athletic testing
- body is ready from day one, chiseled frame
- one of the best interviews (according to Givony)
- maybe best psychological testing (according to Givony)
- said to have a high work ethic
- shot it well in work outs
I don't think the pre-draft process could have went any better for him.

The game tape is also kind to him:
- winner: Fights for important rebounds. Gets steals. Plays hard.
- can act as a secondary/third ball handler
- improving stroke
- can switch ball screens comfortably
- good handle, splits p&r naturally
- nice vision, but decision-making needs work

Further, looking at different statistical translatio models, he does quite well. Layne Vashrow's models consist of the idea that the interaction of athleticism + getting steals + good assist to turnover ratio is a good formula to assess future improvement. Donovan does well in all categories. Good athleticism, elite 2.6 steals per 40 and a solid 1.7 a/t-ratio. Andrew Johnsons model that preditcs NBA three point shooting has Mitchell at 36% on a good volume.

So to sum up, I don't see a future star in the making but he is exactly the guy you want to bring in your organisation and invest a late lottery pick in without hesistation. I think he does provide plus value anywhere from 8-14, maybe 10-14 in this draft.

Re: Adebayo/Evans
Agree on both. I really like them. Apparently Adebayo has been invited to the Green Room so at least he seems to be on the radar. Evans however has been mocked any where from 25-35. I hope he lasts to 34!

 

[206Fan]

I don't understand why Anunoby being a 3/4 is seen as a negative but the comparatively smaller and less athletic Dillon Brooks is a "great four man". That seems contradictory to me. I do agree with the general sentiment that this draft is pretty thin on top-end talent though. A lot of these guys are nowhere near as impressive as I thought they were two months ago. I find myself more intrigued by the potential of some of the later sleepers like Jawun Evans, Frank Mason, Jonathan Motley, Semi Ojeleye, and Cam Oliver than a lot of the names in the top 10.

Donovan Mitchell has been one of the fastest risers -- I somehow managed to miss watching him entirely. What's going on with his draft stock, is it just people convincing themselves that he can stick at PG and that his size is an asset rather than a detriment in that context?

Yeah, wtf. When I saw the guy say that Brooks would be a good stretch 4, I laughed. In what NBA world is Dillon Brooks is a stretch 4????? Maybe in 2023 when we see all-midget lineups..
He's 6'6 with a 6'6 wingspan at 220lbs with a 8'4.5 standing reach. Let's compare that to Draymond because why not?
He's 6'7 with a 7'1 wingspan at 236lbs with a 8'9 standing reach. Brooks averaged less than 4rebs/game!

Not to take away hard work from these scouts, but I think college basketball scouting is much much more easier than scouting at different levels. I also think it's much easier to scout in basketball than most of the major US sports.

 

[funkykingston]

Yeah, wtf. When I saw the guy say that Brooks would be a good stretch 4, I laughed. In what NBA world is Dillon Brooks is a stretch 4????? Maybe in 2023 when we see all-midget lineups..
He's 6'6 with a 6'6 wingspan at 220lbs with a 8'4.5 standing reach. Let's compare that to Draymond because why not?
He's 6'7 with a 7'1 wingspan at 236lbs with a 8'9 standing reach. Brooks averaged less than 4rebs/game!

Not to take away hard work from these scouts, but I think college basketball scouting is much much more easier than scouting at different levels. I also think it's much easier to scout in basketball than most of the major US sports.

Obviously Brooks can't play the 4 in the NBA but that was how he was used at Oregon. On the NBA level I'm not sure he's even big enough to be a SF and he lacks perimeter polish. I love the kid but he's going to have to make a big adjustment to be an NBA player.