Scoreboard Watch/Playoff Standings Watch 2025 Edition

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upinsmoke said:
So did we just smoke the pick?
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I believe there is still a chance.

we would need to lose on Wednesday and we would need Orlando to fail to qualify for the postseason. They’ll get two cracks at it on their home floor though.

I think Atlanta(pick owned by Spurs) falling out would give us a chance as well but we have the same record as them so i think it would be a coin flip.

Oh well, I’m sure it’s only an 11 player draft anyway.

let’s hope they win 2 games and make the playoffs
 
Sadly, my League Pass subscription has come to an end. I will not be able to watch Wednesday night's game vs Dallas, except perhaps on replay.
 
Mr. S£im Citrus said:
And I would suggest that you may be underestimating the impact Butler has had upon the improvement of said roleplayers.
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Guess we’ll see, I still think they’re heavy favorites against every team in the Play-In, with or without Butler. Lot of their guys had health issues throughout the early parts of the year and they finally got close to fully healthy after Butler arrived. I think it was a timely coincidence. Butler definitely gave their group confidence and a belief they could make a deep run, though.
 
Warhawk said:
If it doesn't convey this year it will almost certainly convey next year, and if not then it turns into 2 second rounders, correct? How long are we going to hamstring ourselves with regards to our own picks (just in the hopes of keeping this year's middling first rounder in what I've been told is not a great draft)? Get it off our books and free up resources to make moves. It's going to convey eventually, somehow. Folks keep complaining about both not keeping the pick and also about not being able to make trades with our picks due to that one hanging out there indefinitely.

The trades themselves are products of different times and different situations.

Huerter definitely lived up to the promise the first year and was worth the pick if you ask me. He was a major piece of the Beam Team that rejuvenated both the team (GM of the year, coach of the year, etc., etc.) and the city. Just because he got injured and forgot how to shoot doesn't mean the trade was bad at the time.

We effectively got Levine, two first rounders, and five second rounders for Fox, with a couple of second rounders going for JV (who has been great). Fox had poisoned the well for deals by saying he would only sign with San Antonio, etc., and was injured and wasn't going to re-sign here. We got what we could out of a bad situation. You can't compare the two.
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I understand that there's context involved -- Geoff Petrie, for instance, didn't just trade Chris Webber for Kenny Thomas, Brian Skinner, and a third player that I can't remember (sorry, not sorry) because he got tired of winning. But the bottom line here is that it's the GM's job to maximize their assets and make the team better. That's the part of the job which is always the same regardless of context. And it appears to me that after a very positive start, McNair has been buying high and selling low on a lot of assets lately. Sasha Vezenkov -- from biggest signing of the 2023 off-season to salary dumped in one year. Davion Mitchell was a 13th overall pick who got salary dumped before his second contract. Kevin Huerter was salary dumped in the Fox trade and he has now cost us a lottery pick. And Fox himself, an All Star averaging 25, 6, and 5 who was traded without getting a single lottery pick or young potential star in return.

Let's not pretend that all first round picks are equal. The value curve of a first round pick is logarithmic not linear. We know this because in 2023 Monte McNair just straight gave away the #24 overall pick to Dallas in order to get Richaun Holmes off the payroll. There is verifiable evidence for how much he (doesn't) value a late first round pick. That's the level of pick he's likely to be getting from SA and Minnesota in that Fox deal. Those two picks put together are probably worth less than the one pick we're about to give to Atlanta for a guy who isn't even on our roster anymore. And Zach LaVine is not a good NBA player. In his whole career he's only had 3 seasons where he grades out as above average (at age 25, 26, and 27) and all of his value is tied up in offense because he's a liability defensively. On top of that he's now 30 years old and has a long history of knee, back, and ankle injuries which make it extremely unlikely he reaches that level of production again.

And there's an easy answer to your first question. How long are we going to hamstring ourselves with our future picks? That Atlanta pick obligation expires after next season regardless of where the team finishes so the answer is 1 more year. If we are one of the 10 worst teams next season we keep the pick anyway and all Atlanta gets is a pair of seconds. If we're not one of the worst 10 teams next season that means one of two things has happened: (1) The team has bounced back in a major way and earned a playoff spot. At that point the pick is in the 20s anyway and losing it is easy to live with since we're a playoff team. (2) The team continues to hover around the play-in seeds much like this season in which case the pick is about the same as what we're losing this year on a roster which is another year older and practically begging to be blown up.

The worst-case scenario for next season is no worse than where we are now -- losing our pick to Atlanta and (most likely) still missing the playoffs. Clearly Monte did not intend to trade a lottery pick to Atlanta for Kevin Huerter. He intended to be about 10 spots better in the overall standings right now. Giving up a lottery pick for a solid starter who is not even on the roster 3 years later is a failure of asset management. I will absolutely trade a chance at failure in 2026 in exchange for guaranteed failure in 2025. In those terms I think everyone would. The only people who seem to disagree are the "next year's draft is way better" people but since we hear that literally every year and most of the time it doesn't end up being true, is anyone actually listening to those people anymore?
 
hrdboild said:
I understand that there's context involved -- Geoff Petrie, for instance, didn't just trade Chris Webber for Kenny Thomas, Brian Skinner, and a third player that I can't remember (sorry, not sorry) because he got tired of winning. But the bottom line here is that it's the GM's job to maximize their assets and make the team better. That's the part of the job which is always the same regardless of context. And it appears to me that after a very positive start, McNair has been buying high and selling low on a lot of assets lately. Sasha Vezenkov -- from biggest signing of the 2023 off-season to salary dumped in one year. Davion Mitchell was a 13th overall pick who got salary dumped before his second contract. Kevin Huerter was salary dumped in the Fox trade and he has now cost us a lottery pick. And Fox himself, an All Star averaging 25, 6, and 5 who was traded without getting a single lottery pick or young potential star in return.

Let's not pretend that all first round picks are equal. The value curve of a first round pick is logarithmic not linear. We know this because in 2023 Monte McNair just straight gave away the #24 overall pick to Dallas in order to get Richaun Holmes off the payroll. There is verifiable evidence for how much he (doesn't) value a late first round pick. That's the level of pick he's likely to be getting from SA and Minnesota in that Fox deal. Those two picks put together are probably worth less than the one pick we're about to give to Atlanta for a guy who isn't even on our roster anymore. And Zach LaVine is not a good NBA player. In his whole career he's only had 3 seasons where he grades out as above average (at age 25, 26, and 27) and all of his value is tied up in offense because he's a liability defensively. On top of that he's now 30 years old and has a long history of knee, back, and ankle injuries which make it extremely unlikely he reaches that level of production again.

And there's an easy answer to your first question. How long are we going to hamstring ourselves with our future picks? That Atlanta pick obligation expires after next season regardless of where the team finishes so the answer is 1 more year. If we are one of the 10 worst teams next season we keep the pick anyway and all Atlanta gets is a pair of seconds. If we're not one of the worst 10 teams next season that means one of two things has happened: (1) The team has bounced back in a major way and earned a playoff spot. At that point the pick is in the 20s anyway and losing it is easy to live with since we're a playoff team. (2) The team continues to hover around the play-in seeds much like this season in which case the pick is about the same as what we're losing this year on a roster which is another year older and practically begging to be blown up.

The worst-case scenario for next season is no worse than where we are now -- losing our pick to Atlanta and (most likely) still missing the playoffs. Clearly Monte did not intend to trade a lottery pick to Atlanta for Kevin Huerter. He intended to be about 10 spots better in the overall standings right now. Giving up a lottery pick for a solid starter who is not even on the roster 3 years later is a failure of asset management. I will absolutely trade a chance at failure in 2026 in exchange for guaranteed failure in 2025. In those terms I think everyone would. The only people who seem to disagree are the "next year's draft is way better" people but since we hear that literally every year and most of the time it doesn't end up being true, is anyone actually listening to those people anymore?
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It's worse though, because Davion was the 9th pick.

In fact, the Kings' drafts under Monte is the reason I'd rather just let the pick convey this year, unless the Kings change front office regimes before the draft (somewhat likely?).
 
chief bromden said:
It's worse though, because Davion was the 9th pick.

In fact, the Kings' drafts under Monte is the reason I'd rather just let the pick convey this year, unless the Kings change front office regimes before the draft (somewhat likely?).
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You right. I guess I looked at Devin Carter's draft status by mistake.

Monte and staff also drafted Keegan, Tyrese, and Devin Carter. Their draft record is still pretty good overall. Better than what they've done on the trade market. And Davion Mitchell is a decent NBA player who has a very specific role. He just got drafted by a team who had no room for him in the rotation and probably got taken about 5 or 6 spots too high.
 
We should be able to beat Memphis this team is a joke good luck giving JJJ a super max is he’s eligible that guy is as mid as they come. Mind boggling he made the all star team
 
iowamcnabb said:
Warriors look pretty good. Houston probably isn’t thrilled to draw them in the first round.
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I feel like a healthy warrior team with Jimmy butler, has only played like 3 good teams since they’ve acquired him and I’m not joking. We’ll really see what they’re made of in the first round cuz i didn’t really come away impressed after tonight - seems like they’re relying on their top two to do everything.
 
NewArena said:
I feel like a healthy warrior team with Jimmy butler, has only played like 3 good teams since they’ve acquired him and I’m not joking. We’ll really see what they’re made of in the first round cuz i didn’t really come away impressed after tonight - seems like they’re relying on their top two to do everything.
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fair enough but Night Night and playoff Jimmy are a pretty good duo
 
Yep, we match up against Dallas pretty well EXCEPT Kyrie. Kyrie Irving is a true X factor. He can run team offense to the perfection. Still, if we play smart and well - I value our chances better than Mavs. Only game will tell.
Possible match-up against Grizzlies, we can think about it after tonight's game. Though to play against Grizzlies is a much better choice than against whatever Warriors do on the court. Warriors have exceptional talent plus refs are exceptional capable steering the basketball show outcome into certain, predictable outcome.
 
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