Scoreboard Watch/Playoff Standings Watch 2025 Edition

[Warhawk]

This draft and next draft are loaded would’ve been the perfect time to tank whoever gets Flagg and a top five pick next year will have hit the lottery too bad we’ll be playing in contenders

Intentional tanking for a specific player isn't a valid approach anymore. The lottery odds have been so flattened out that just about any team can leapfrog into 1-3. Now, you can argue whether the current percentages are appropriate, etc., but the odds are against you getting a top 3 pick even if you are the worst team in the league. Teams 1-4 are all expected to pick around the #4 spot.

2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

 

[Joshyjosh31]

Intentional tanking for a specific player isn't a valid approach anymore. The lottery odds have been so flattened out that just about any team can leapfrog into 1-3. Now, you can argue whether the current percentages are appropriate, etc., but the odds are against you getting a top 3 pick even if you are the worst team in the league. Teams 1-4 are all expected to pick around the #4 spot.

2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

View attachment 13450

Was just throwing out Flaggs name as an example but these two drafts have really good talent in the top five

 

[joemama]

Keep on linning
Keep on linning

 

[Warhawk]

Was just throwing out Flaggs name as an example but these two drafts have really good talent in the top five

I don't really pay attention to college ball or players until the draft itself, and then I just check to see what others are saying here. I just don't really care. It seems like even in strong years we often draft duds, so what's the point in pinning your hopes on some hypothetical player we could get that often doesn't pan out?

 

[kingsfan101]

Had been meaning to post this for a while, but was hesitant of putting in the effort, particularly, since it's largely meaningless. Anyway, decided to bite the bullet on a lazy Sunday afternoon. So, here goes

Here are the Wikipedia links for 10 drafts from 2011 to 2020. The reason I excluded the last 4 is that the story is yet to be written for those. Wanted a largish sample, since it evens out good/bad drafts, some reaches being successful, while some projected stars falling short etc. Focusing on the top 10 players in each draft. Again, this means that the team is solidly in the lottery, but not necessarily bad enough for a top-5 pick. If we do decide to "tank", we might be in a similar situation. So, here goes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_NBA_draft

1. Number of All-Stars (not total selections; just the number of players out of 100 who made at least 1 all-star team):
   • 2011: 2
   • 2012: 4
   • 2013: 1 (Victor Oladipo)
   • 2014: 3
   • 2015: 3
   • 2016: 3
   • 2017: 3
   • 2018: 3
   • 2019: 3
   • 2020: 2
   • Total: 27
2. All-NBA (Again, at least 1)
   • 2011: 2
   • 2012: 4
   • 2013: 1 (Victor Oladipo)
   • 2014: 2
   • 2015: 2
   • 2016: 2
   • 2017: 2
   • 2018: 2
   • 2019: 1
   • 2020: 1
   • Total: 19
3. Franchise Players (my subjective opinion)
   • 2011: 1 (Kyrie)
   • 2012: 2 (Anthony Davis, Lilard)
   • 2013: -
   • 2014: 1 (Embiid)
   • 2015: -
   • 2016: 1 (Jaylen Brown)
   • 2017: 1 (Tatum)
   • 2018: 1 (Doncic)
   • 2019: -
   • 2020: 1 (Anthony Edwards)
   • Total: 8

So, out of 100 players, 27 made an All-Star team, 19 made an All-NBA team, and 8 are what I would label as franchise players. While the first two sections are based purely on data (e.g., Oladipo making an All-NBA team in 2013. I don't remember the season he had, but I wouldn't want to tank for him), the last part is my opinion. So, I have not included Zion and Ja. Others might include them. Based on talent, they both qualify. However, they both have serious issues, due to which I excluded them. Others might include them, or some players I left out (including e.g., Simmons, Randle)

All in all, these are not stellar numbers. 27% chances of landing an All-Star, and 19% of landing an All-NBA don't seem all that bad, but they include relatively weak selections. Moreover, if you are hoping for a HOF type of franchise player, chances go down to 8%.

Sure, these odds improve if you restrict yourself to a top 5 pick (14%), but I hope folks can see that even a top 5 pick gives you only a 14% chance of landing a superstar.

The more interesting point is that many of these players are not playing for the franchise that drafted them. From the above list of franchise players, only Embiid, Brown, Tatum, and Ant are playing for the teams that drafted them.

This is not necessarily bad. Many had success with the clubs that drafted them, and when they left, they often brought back value. However, small market teams in particular, need to put a good product on the floor quickly. Else, they might lose their star. In the current environment, with star players holding franchises hostage, you might not get a lot either.

To all the folks on the Tank bandwagon, I can understand the desire, since the team seems to be stuck in a loop of mediocrity. With us potentially losing our FRP, hoping for some lottery magic in a supposedly good draft definitely has an appeal. Do remember that if we do get lucky in lottery, chances of landing a franchise player with a top-5 pick hover at around 14%. There is also a good chance that we will Kangz it, or see the young stud we drafted blossom elsewhere.

I still believe that Vivek should retain Monte, and give him some time to balance out the roster. That said, if we tank, we should ship out anyone not named Keegan, Keon, Laravia, Jones, and Carter, and get what value we can for them. While I would love to have Domas, there is no point having him on a rebuilding roster. He wouldn't want it either. In fact, it's possible Keegan might ask out too.

Good luck trading all those salaries suddenly. The NBA salary cap is going to rise significantly over the next few years. So, currently large salaries will be easier to trade from next year. Even so, you can't trade large salaries without taking back a good percentage of them, and then have them ride the bench, trade them again for more assets, etc. Too many variables. I would rather the team balances out the roster a bit, and develops via internal growth from the young guys.

 

[dude12]

Had been meaning to post this for a while, but was hesitant of putting in the effort, particularly, since it's largely meaningless. Anyway, decided to bite the bullet on a lazy Sunday afternoon. So, here goes

Here are the Wikipedia links for 10 drafts from 2011 to 2020. The reason I excluded the last 4 is that the story is yet to be written for those. Wanted a largish sample, since it evens out good/bad drafts, some reaches being successful, while some projected stars falling short etc. Focusing on the top 10 players in each draft. Again, this means that the team is solidly in the lottery, but not necessarily bad enough for a top-5 pick. If we do decide to "tank", we might be in a similar situation. So, here goes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_NBA_draft

1. Number of All-Stars (not total selections; just the number of players out of 100 who made at least 1 all-star team):
   • 2011: 2
   • 2012: 4
   • 2013: 1 (Victor Oladipo)
   • 2014: 3
   • 2015: 3
   • 2016: 3
   • 2017: 3
   • 2018: 3
   • 2019: 3
   • 2020: 2
   • Total: 27
2. All-NBA (Again, at least 1)
   • 2011: 2
   • 2012: 4
   • 2013: 1 (Victor Oladipo)
   • 2014: 2
   • 2015: 2
   • 2016: 2
   • 2017: 2
   • 2018: 2
   • 2019: 1
   • 2020: 1
   • Total: 19
3. Franchise Players (my subjective opinion)
   • 2011: 1 (Kyrie)
   • 2012: 2 (Anthony Davis, Lilard)
   • 2013: -
   • 2014: 1 (Embiid)
   • 2015: -
   • 2016: 1 (Jaylen Brown)
   • 2017: 1 (Tatum)
   • 2018: 1 (Doncic)
   • 2019: -
   • 2020: 1 (Anthony Edwards)
   • Total: 8

So, out of 100 players, 27 made an All-Star team, 19 made an All-NBA team, and 8 are what I would label as franchise players. While the first two sections are based purely on data (e.g., Oladipo making an All-NBA team in 2013. I don't remember the season he had, but I wouldn't want to tank for him), the last part is my opinion. So, I have not included Zion and Ja. Others might include them. Based on talent, they both qualify. However, they both have serious issues, due to which I excluded them. Others might include them, or some players I left out (including e.g., Simmons, Randle)

All in all, these are not stellar numbers. 27% chances of landing an All-Star, and 19% of landing an All-NBA don't seem all that bad, but they include relatively weak selections. Moreover, if you are hoping for a HOF type of franchise player, chances go down to 8%.

Sure, these odds improve if you restrict yourself to a top 5 pick (14%), but I hope folks can see that even a top 5 pick gives you only a 14% chance of landing a superstar.

The more interesting point is that many of these players are not playing for the franchise that drafted them. From the above list of franchise players, only Embiid, Brown, Tatum, and Ant are playing for the teams that drafted them.

This is not necessarily bad. Many had success with the clubs that drafted them, and when they left, they often brought back value. However, small market teams in particular, need to put a good product on the floor quickly. Else, they might lose their star. In the current environment, with star players holding franchises hostage, you might not get a lot either.

To all the folks on the Tank bandwagon, I can understand the desire, since the team seems to be stuck in a loop of mediocrity. With us potentially losing our FRP, hoping for some lottery magic in a supposedly good draft definitely has an appeal. Do remember that if we do get lucky in lottery, chances of landing a franchise player with a top-5 pick hover at around 14%. There is also a good chance that we will Kangz it, or see the young stud we drafted blossom elsewhere.

I still believe that Vivek should retain Monte, and give him some time to balance out the roster. That said, if we tank, we should ship out anyone not named Keegan, Keon, Laravia, Jones, and Carter, and get what value we can for them. While I would love to have Domas, there is no point having him on a rebuilding roster. He wouldn't want it either. In fact, it's possible Keegan might ask out too.

Good luck trading all those salaries suddenly. The NBA salary cap is going to rise significantly over the next few years. So, currently large salaries will be easier to trade from next year. Even so, you can't trade large salaries without taking back a good percentage of them, and then have them ride the bench, trade them again for more assets, etc. Too many variables. I would rather the team balances out the roster a bit, and develops via internal growth from the young guys.

 

[iowamcnabb]

IMO tonight decides our season. If the Suns lose they will be 35-40. That would mean they likely need to go 5-2 to finish the season to even have a chance. Given how tough their schedule is I find that highly improbable. On the other hand, if they win they might give themselves enough momentum to make that last game against us a win or go home situation.

 

[NewArena]

Who knows what the vibes would be had Sabonis not gotten hurt when he did? Not saying this is some powerhouse team waiting to happen but there’s been no time to create any real consistent synergy and any time we’ve had any positive momentum, another blow comes. I don’t think there needs to be some giant tear down, just some pieces that fit better and a team that can withstand some of these ill timed injuries of course (because they obviously will happen)

 

[Caccia]

IMO tonight decides our season. If the Suns lose they will be 35-40. That would mean they likely need to go 5-2 to finish the season to even have a chance. Given how tough their schedule is I find that highly improbable. On the other hand, if they win they might give themselves enough momentum to make that last game against us a win or go home situation.

Midway through the third quarter, Houston leads by 35. Not much of a contest so far. Dillon Brooks managed to get himself ejected, though.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

Who knows what the vibes would be had Sabonis not gotten hurt when he did? Not saying this is some powerhouse team waiting to happen but there’s been no time to create any real consistent synergy and any time we’ve had any positive momentum, another blow comes. I don’t think there needs to be some giant tear down, just some pieces that fit better and a team that can withstand some of these ill timed injuries of course (because they obviously will happen)

The addition of Valanciunas was for this exact reason. Wasn't enough, because the other pieces don't fit well

 

[Tetsujin]

Annual KD bad looking injury finally happened.

https://twitter.com/statuses/1906544181688078639

 

[The_Jamal]

The addition of Valanciunas was for this exact reason. Wasn't enough, because the other pieces don't fit well

They do, but we don't play them right because egos and status matter more than winning. And now it's probably too late to salvage what this team could have been.

Shame.

 

[kingsfan101]

They do, but we don't play them right because egos and status matter more than winning. And now it's probably too late to salvage what this team could have been.

Shame.

I think it's easy for fans to discredit egos and status, but managing these is a fundamental part of an NBA coach. Your reputation, status, and even the history of your franchise make a difference.

Many of the players are alphas. They have been that their whole life, and part of that is what makes them NBA level players. Plus, they are playing for contracts, and in some cases, even legacy. Egos matter. Asking a veteran player to take backseat to a young player is not always easy for him to accept. Coaches have to earn the status of being able to dictate terms, and the support of management and senior players is essential.

Personally, I think the team needs a leader more than talent. Doug is a first year, and an interim HC at that. Ideally, Domas, as the best player and one of the longest tenured players should fill that role. Not sure if he wants it though. And yes, the best player is not necessarily the leader. Needs to be a vet though.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Well there it is. The Suns are basically cooked, glazed and ready to be sliced, especially if KD is out.

I want the pick to convey so we can move on but I also don’t want to back into a play in. Show some damn fight for these last 8 games!!! The fans deserve that at the very least for all the crap we’ve been through. Give us 6-2 or 5-3 is the minimum and the next 3 games will determine if that’s even possible.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Also the ESPN article just said that KD will not travel with the team on the 3 game road trip. If the MRI is clean he could fly out to join the team but the most likely outcome is he misses at least 3 games.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

They do, but we don't play them right because egos and status matter more than winning. And now it's probably too late to salvage what this team could have been.

Shame.

I'm not sure how we can overcome this owner. After all these years, it looks like he is basically at square one. I had a feeling way back at the beginning that Geoff Petrie was right about him

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Well there it is. The Suns are basically cooked, glazed and ready to be sliced, especially if KD is out.

I want the pick to convey so we can move on but I also don’t want to back into a play in. Show some damn fight for these last 7 games!!! The fans deserve that at the very least for all the crap we’ve been through. Give us 5-2. 4-3 is the minimum and the next 3 games will determine if that’s even possible.

Fortunately for this part, at least, it would take a minor miracle for the pick not to convey at this point.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Fortunately for this part, at least, it would take a minor miracle for the pick not to convey at this point.

yeh you’d think so. I actually got it wrong, we have 8 games left not 7. If we go 4-4 we probably guarantee a spot and the pick conveys. Having said that, we are 3-7 in our last 10. If we finish say 3-5 I could see the Suns getting to 39 wins and getting in due to the tie breaker (of course that would mean they beat us in the last game of the season.)

Making the play in 2 or 3 games under .500 would not feel great.

 

[hrdboild]

Had been meaning to post this for a while, but was hesitant of putting in the effort, particularly, since it's largely meaningless. Anyway, decided to bite the bullet on a lazy Sunday afternoon. So, here goes

Here are the Wikipedia links for 10 drafts from 2011 to 2020. The reason I excluded the last 4 is that the story is yet to be written for those. Wanted a largish sample, since it evens out good/bad drafts, some reaches being successful, while some projected stars falling short etc. Focusing on the top 10 players in each draft. Again, this means that the team is solidly in the lottery, but not necessarily bad enough for a top-5 pick. If we do decide to "tank", we might be in a similar situation. So, here goes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_NBA_draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_NBA_draft

1. Number of All-Stars (not total selections; just the number of players out of 100 who made at least 1 all-star team):
   • 2011: 2
   • 2012: 4
   • 2013: 1 (Victor Oladipo)
   • 2014: 3
   • 2015: 3
   • 2016: 3
   • 2017: 3
   • 2018: 3
   • 2019: 3
   • 2020: 2
   • Total: 27
2. All-NBA (Again, at least 1)
   • 2011: 2
   • 2012: 4
   • 2013: 1 (Victor Oladipo)
   • 2014: 2
   • 2015: 2
   • 2016: 2
   • 2017: 2
   • 2018: 2
   • 2019: 1
   • 2020: 1
   • Total: 19
3. Franchise Players (my subjective opinion)
   • 2011: 1 (Kyrie)
   • 2012: 2 (Anthony Davis, Lilard)
   • 2013: -
   • 2014: 1 (Embiid)
   • 2015: -
   • 2016: 1 (Jaylen Brown)
   • 2017: 1 (Tatum)
   • 2018: 1 (Doncic)
   • 2019: -
   • 2020: 1 (Anthony Edwards)
   • Total: 8

So, out of 100 players, 27 made an All-Star team, 19 made an All-NBA team, and 8 are what I would label as franchise players. While the first two sections are based purely on data (e.g., Oladipo making an All-NBA team in 2013. I don't remember the season he had, but I wouldn't want to tank for him), the last part is my opinion. So, I have not included Zion and Ja. Others might include them. Based on talent, they both qualify. However, they both have serious issues, due to which I excluded them. Others might include them, or some players I left out (including e.g., Simmons, Randle)

All in all, these are not stellar numbers. 27% chances of landing an All-Star, and 19% of landing an All-NBA don't seem all that bad, but they include relatively weak selections. Moreover, if you are hoping for a HOF type of franchise player, chances go down to 8%.

Sure, these odds improve if you restrict yourself to a top 5 pick (14%), but I hope folks can see that even a top 5 pick gives you only a 14% chance of landing a superstar.

The more interesting point is that many of these players are not playing for the franchise that drafted them. From the above list of franchise players, only Embiid, Brown, Tatum, and Ant are playing for the teams that drafted them.

This is not necessarily bad. Many had success with the clubs that drafted them, and when they left, they often brought back value. However, small market teams in particular, need to put a good product on the floor quickly. Else, they might lose their star. In the current environment, with star players holding franchises hostage, you might not get a lot either.

To all the folks on the Tank bandwagon, I can understand the desire, since the team seems to be stuck in a loop of mediocrity. With us potentially losing our FRP, hoping for some lottery magic in a supposedly good draft definitely has an appeal. Do remember that if we do get lucky in lottery, chances of landing a franchise player with a top-5 pick hover at around 14%. There is also a good chance that we will Kangz it, or see the young stud we drafted blossom elsewhere.

I still believe that Vivek should retain Monte, and give him some time to balance out the roster. That said, if we tank, we should ship out anyone not named Keegan, Keon, Laravia, Jones, and Carter, and get what value we can for them. While I would love to have Domas, there is no point having him on a rebuilding roster. He wouldn't want it either. In fact, it's possible Keegan might ask out too.

Good luck trading all those salaries suddenly. The NBA salary cap is going to rise significantly over the next few years. So, currently large salaries will be easier to trade from next year. Even so, you can't trade large salaries without taking back a good percentage of them, and then have them ride the bench, trade them again for more assets, etc. Too many variables. I would rather the team balances out the roster a bit, and develops via internal growth from the young guys.

I think you're setting up a false dichotomy here that the choices are a full-on tank or some roster balancing. I don't want to see a complete tear down and 5 years of intentional losing for ping pong balls, I just want to see a basketball team on the floor that has a chance of winning a playoff series. And acknowledging the reality of how the NBA is structured, I don't think we ever get there by buying veteran free agents or shuffling the supporting cast around a deeply flawed core.

Four months ago this team was struggling with inconsistency but there was still hope that they could right the ship for three reasons: (1) The team defensive rating was hovering around 12th, so even with all of the problems there was still a chance that they could tighten up the mistakes and win a playoff series. (2) We'd already seen mostly this same core win 3 games in the playoffs in 2023 and blow out the Warriors in a play-in game in 2024. (3) The obvious rotation holes at backup C and backup SF were fixable with a couple of deadline trades (which ironically enough, Monte did make only it was too late for them to matter at that point).

As things stand currently: (1) This team is now ranked 24th in defensive rating and really that number is even lower for this roster if you consider that's a full-season average. (2) Fox averaged 27.4 pts, 5.4 rebs, 7.7 ast, and 2.1 stls in the playoffs so those recent playoff wins are no longer relevant without him on the roster. (3) The bench rotation holes have been addressed but now we need to replace 2 positions in the starting lineup. With De'Aaron Fox and Mike Brown gone I'd argue that we actually have a problem at 3 starting positions. We're now staring right in the face of the "can you win with Sabonis as your best player" problem and as much as I like the guy, I have to admit that I think the answer to that question is "no". He's not enough of a defensive presence to anchor a lineup and not gifted enough as an offensive weapon to justify trying to play guys out of position to compensate for his limitations.

So what do we do next? If we can identify the players who will help us to achieve the goal (become a team that is capable of winning a playoff series again) and trade everyone else for assets that will help us to build around those players, we won't need to waste any time trying to lose games on purpose. There's two ways this could go in my view. There's what I would like to see happen, just rip the band aid off now and ship out Zach, Malik, Deebo, and Domas on draft day or right after it. Tell Keegan Murray congratulations, you're the face of the franchise and start drafting for size, defense, playmaking and shooting to fill the PG, PF, and C spots around Keon Ellis at SG and Keegan Murray at SF. And there's what probably will happen instead which is a long and slow process of trying to rearrange the deck chairs on a sinking ship as Monte or whoever takes his place wastes multiple assets and years on a lost cause.

I don't think wanting the team to clean house and start building toward a better future is the same thing as endorsing a tank. I want the team to build around Keon and Keegan at this point (and Devin Carter and Isaac Jones in the rotation) because those are the guys we have who are playing both ends of the floor. Get everyone else out of the way who is limiting their effectiveness and surround them with players who share their "play all 94 feet" mentality. I think sticking with this Monk/Deebo/LaVine/Sabonis core for even one more season is more likely to result in continued fan disengagement and continued franchise front-office turmoil. That's when we're staring at a tank situation because we will have burned every available asset trying to keep a bad team afloat.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

yeh you’d think so. I actually got it wrong, we have 8 games left not 7. If we go 4-4 we probably guarantee a spot and the pick conveys. Having said that, we are 3-7 in our last 10. If we finish say 3-5 I could see the Suns getting to 39 wins and getting in due to the tie breaker (of course that would mean they beat us in the last game of the season.)

Making the play in 2 or 3 games under .500 would not feel great.

There are actually two (unlikely) ways for us to get a spot in the play-in but still keep the pick. Obviously if we lose out of the play-in our pick remains in the lottery, and then...

1) Our pick is 13 or 14 and we hit the lottery. Could happen. As seen above, about a 4.7% or 2.4% probability. Jim Carrey likes these odds.

2) Our pick is 12 (lower than 12 is basically out of play) and we don't get bumped down to 13 by the lotto (~93.2% chance of keeping it). To get here, two play-in losers have to have a better record than us. If we finish at #10, which seems likely, then the other WC loser would basically be in the #14 slot. But we'd still need help from the EC to get another team to take that #13 slot. Both Atlanta and Orlando have at least a puncher's chance to finish ahead of us, but even if both do, the loser of that ATL/ORL 7/8 game would have to lose again to miss out and nab that #13.

 

[hrdboild]

There are actually two (unlikely) ways for us to get a spot in the play-in but still keep the pick. Obviously if we lose out of the play-in our pick remains in the lottery, and then...

1) Our pick is 13 or 14 and we hit the lottery. Could happen. As seen above, about a 4.7% or 2.4% probability. Jim Carrey likes these odds.

2) Our pick is 12 (lower than 12 is basically out of play) and we don't get bumped down to 13 by the lotto (~93.2% chance of keeping it). To get here, two play-in losers have to have a better record than us. If we finish at #10, which seems likely, then the other WC loser would basically be in the #14 slot. But we'd still need help from the EC to get another team to take that #13 slot. Both Atlanta and Orlando have at least a puncher's chance to finish ahead of us, but even if both do, the loser of that ATL/ORL 7/8 game would have to lose again to miss out and nab that #13.

I would put Chicago and maybe even Miami in that same category as Atlanta and Orlando. As Eastern Conference teams they have multiple games remaining against the dregs of the league and both of those teams are currently riding hot streaks (Chicago is 9-5 in March and Miami has won 4 in a row after their 10 game losing streak). It's unlikely that they both end up with a better record than the Kings by the end of the season, but one of them could and at that point finishing 12th pre-lottery is starting to look possible.

 

[Vinny Basketballerino]

I have a sinking feeling we're not making the play-ins. I think we might spiral bad on this road trip. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

I'm here too. Domas has become one of my favorite players of all-time, Monk is one of the "ride or die" kind of players for this city, but this thing somehow complexly broke in 3 months since Fox snaked the Kings and forcing his way onto the Spurs. He's not the only reason for the downfall, but he absolutely was the catalyst.

I'm the biggest Monte bull on this forum, but a fully new regime needs to come in. Clean house, new FO, new coaching staff. Trade off all the vets, massive minutes for Carter/Keon/Keegan/LaRavia (hopefully somehow resign) and start over. I thought you might be able to salvage this thing if you could just get to the off-season and give these guys a chance to gel and build chemistry, but seems pretty clear that option is over.

But, of course knowing Vivek, Vlade is probably on his way back and we'll spend the next 5 years winning 36-39 games and "competing" for a 10 seed.

Sabonis looks completely checked out and I don't blame him at all. Domas is also one of my favorite Kings players ever as well. Top 3 for sure. He deserves better than to waste his time here on a team going nowhere. I'm sure he'll ask out this offseason and I really hope we don't drag this out like we did with Fox. But I don't trust Vivek o make the right decision.

 

[kingsfan101]

I think you're setting up a false dichotomy here that the choices are a full-on tank or some roster balancing. I don't want to see a complete tear down and 5 years of intentional losing for ping pong balls, I just want to see a basketball team on the floor that has a chance of winning a playoff series. And acknowledging the reality of how the NBA is structured, I don't think we ever get there by buying veteran free agents or shuffling the supporting cast around a deeply flawed core.

Four months ago this team was struggling with inconsistency but there was still hope that they could right the ship for three reasons: (1) The team defensive rating was hovering around 12th, so even with all of the problems there was still a chance that they could tighten up the mistakes and win a playoff series. (2) We'd already seen mostly this same core win 3 games in the playoffs in 2023 and blow out the Warriors in a play-in game in 2024. (3) The obvious rotation holes at backup C and backup SF were fixable with a couple of deadline trades (which ironically enough, Monte did make only it was too late for them to matter at that point).

As things stand currently: (1) This team is now ranked 24th in defensive rating and really that number is even lower for this roster if you consider that's a full-season average. (2) Fox averaged 27.4 pts, 5.4 rebs, 7.7 ast, and 2.1 stls in the playoffs so those recent playoff wins are no longer relevant without him on the roster. (3) The bench rotation holes have been addressed but now we need to replace 2 positions in the starting lineup. With De'Aaron Fox and Mike Brown gone I'd argue that we actually have a problem at 3 starting positions. We're now staring right in the face of the "can you win with Sabonis as your best player" problem and as much as I like the guy, I have to admit that I think the answer to that question is "no". He's not enough of a defensive presence to anchor a lineup and not gifted enough as an offensive weapon to justify trying to play guys out of position to compensate for his limitations.

So what do we do next? If we can identify the players who will help us to achieve the goal (become a team that is capable of winning a playoff series again) and trade everyone else for assets that will help us to build around those players, we won't need to waste any time trying to lose games on purpose. There's two ways this could go in my view. There's what I would like to see happen, just rip the band aid off now and ship out Zach, Malik, Deebo, and Domas on draft day or right after it. Tell Keegan Murray congratulations, you're the face of the franchise and start drafting for size, defense, playmaking and shooting to fill the PG, PF, and C spots around Keon Ellis at SG and Keegan Murray at SF. And there's what probably will happen instead which is a long and slow process of trying to rearrange the deck chairs on a sinking ship as Monte or whoever takes his place wastes multiple assets and years on a lost cause.

I don't think wanting the team to clean house and start building toward a better future is the same thing as endorsing a tank. I want the team to build around Keon and Keegan at this point (and Devin Carter and Isaac Jones in the rotation) because those are the guys we have who are playing both ends of the floor. Get everyone else out of the way who is limiting their effectiveness and surround them with players who share their "play all 94 feet" mentality. I think sticking with this Monk/Deebo/LaVine/Sabonis core for even one more season is more likely to result in continued fan disengagement and continued franchise front-office turmoil. That's when we're staring at a tank situation because we will have burned every available asset trying to keep a bad team afloat.

Excellent post.

In my defense, I was responding to some of the comments about blowing it up, and aiming for a top-5 pick, in the hopes of landing a superstar. The data suggests that the odds of being able to do that are very slim.

As for trading away the vets for assets, it typically doesn't work that way. You need to take back equivalent salary. That would typically mean overpaid veteran players that teams don't want, and are willing to attach assets to, to get rid of their contracts. You will need to find 4 such teams and players for the four vets. How easy is to do that, and how much of such poison contracts are we willing to swallow? Will Vivek agree to trade for these large contracts, buy them out for some small savings, but still pay them millions of dollars for them to play elsewhere? Will a coach, who will want to win, keep these players on the bench, and go with the young guys?

Much more likely that we rearrange the chairs and trade some of the players to better balance out the roster. I think that's a much more practical and feasible approach.

 

[dude12]

The thing with Domas is that he, allegedly, was one of the main players quitting on Mike Brown. Nothing good happens when players quit on a coach. Then Fox and Klutch did their thing. No one is exempt from this organization for the season’s failure.

 

[Caccia]

The thing with Domas is that he, allegedly, was one of the main players quitting on Mike Brown. Nothing good happens when players quit on a coach. Then Fox and Klutch did their thing. No one is exempt from this organization for the season’s failure.

Where did you hear that? All I see is a guy, a very big guy, bringing it every night. And I watch almost every single game.

 

[Srzly]

Where did you hear that? All I see is a guy, a very big guy, bringing it every night. And I watch almost every single game.

I won’t speak for dude12 on the “quit” part since I haven’t heard that or seen that myself during games but what I have seen/heard multiple places is that Domas wasn’t a fan of MB and that he wasn’t onboard with the extension MB was given.

I will say that Domas has looked frustrated and much different this year than in the past. I shared some thoughts on it in the Domas Trade thread but I would prefer the Kings trade him before this turns into another Fox situation where our hand is forced and we lose leverage if he really is unhappy.

 

[The_Jamal]

Where did you hear that? All I see is a guy, a very big guy, bringing it every night. And I watch almost every single game.

He may not have been happy with Brown behind the scenes, but he never let it affect his effort on the court. It was the other guy that we had to wonder which version would show up. You never had to worry about the effort with Domas.

 

[dude12]

Where did you hear that? All I see is a guy, a very big guy, bringing it every night. And I watch almost every single game.

Srzly mentioned this but it’s been hinted at several times since the events happened. Yes, Domas brings it every night but if one of your main players is not supporting the head coach, obviously, that isn’t good. I’m not blam8ng everything on Domas mind you as he’s just one guy in a sea of dysfunction here. Still, I think there’s issues here in regards to him

 

[hrdboild]

Excellent post.

In my defense, I was responding to some of the comments about blowing it up, and aiming for a top-5 pick, in the hopes of landing a superstar. The data suggests that the odds of being able to do that are very slim.

As for trading away the vets for assets, it typically doesn't work that way. You need to take back equivalent salary. That would typically mean overpaid veteran players that teams don't want, and are willing to attach assets to, to get rid of their contracts. You will need to find 4 such teams and players for the four vets. How easy is to do that, and how much of such poison contracts are we willing to swallow? Will Vivek agree to trade for these large contracts, buy them out for some small savings, but still pay them millions of dollars for them to play elsewhere? Will a coach, who will want to win, keep these players on the bench, and go with the young guys?

Much more likely that we rearrange the chairs and trade some of the players to better balance out the roster. I think that's a much more practical and feasible approach.

There are certainly a lot of reasons why the tear it down strategy is impractical, I would grant you that.

Zach LaVine may be unmovable both because his huge salary is tough to match and because he has a player option for 2026 so even if we do find a team who wants him, they're only getting him for one year guaranteed on his current contract. Most likely he takes that $49 million option but it's an uncertainty and that dings his trade value.

I do think Monk, Valanciunas, and Domas all represent positive assets on their current deals but we're also likely to be disappointed in the return as we try to convince another team that a core part of a sub 40 win roster is going to dramatically improve their own playoff outlook. Any other GM is going to look at our record and rightly negotiate from a position of "convince me these players are winners that I need to give you something of value for". Domas is a 3x All-Star and 2x All-NBAer but the biggest impression most general NBA personnel have of Domas right now is still his disappearing act in that GS playoff series two years ago. And Deebo is just a tough fit on most rosters in 2025.

But you mentioned the biggest obstacle of all -- where is Vivek on the reality vs. delusion continuum right now and is he even willing to sign off on moving off of a group that just two months ago he was sold by this front office as a solid playoff-worthy core? He used to be the "fail fast" guy in the room but that philosophy becomes awfully muddy when jobs are on the line. It's easy for me to say from the sidelines that the GM needs to go to his boss and admit it was a mistake to invest in Zach LaVine before that mistake costs him and everyone else on his staff their jobs. "I made a mistake but don't fire me because I'm the right guy to undo that mistake" is a pretty heady admission for an NBA executive with the amount of churn in that position. Which is partly why it's such a hard job. The right decision is not always practicable politically.

So yeah.... I agree that small tweaks are far more practical and likely, but I don't personally see any small tweaks that we can make which will result in better playoff seeding in 2026. If I were the GM and I knew that I was stuck with this core for next season I would already be lining up my next job and it may not be in basketball. As a fan I just hope the fall from grace happens quickly so that we can find our way back to a place of hope again sooner rather than later.