SAR or Thomas? Statistical Analysis

[nbrans]

DISCLAIMER: I am not very good at math, so please correct me if any of this is wrong.

So are the Kings better with SAR or Thomas on the floor? I thought I might try and answer this question somewhat scientifically. In order to do this, I'm using the numbers from the good people at www.82games.com and using my own formula (as far as I know).

A great way of calculating the impact of an individual player is looking at the overall performance of a five man unit, and then switch out one player with the other four remaining players. In other words, which unit performs better:Bibby, Wells, Artest, SAR, Miller or Bibby, Wells Artest, KT, Miller?

82games.com has the numbers. Below I've compared the +/- differential of the units, account for minutes played and arrive at some vaguely rational answer.

In order to account for minutes played, here's my formula: Minutes played divided by 48 to get "game units". I then divide the margin by the number of "game units" to get the average margin per "game".

For instance, if one unit played 500 minutes together, that is about 10.4 forty-eight minute games. If the margin is +10 that means the team won each "game" by a margin of about one point. If one unit played 24 minutes together that is 0.5 games. If the margin is +10 that means that team won each "game" by a margin of 20 points.


In order to be factored in each unit had to play at least 30 minutes together -- otherwise it's probably statistically irrelevant.

Bibby, Wells, Peja, SAR, Miller
Minutes: 508; +/-: +55
Margin per "game": 5.2
vs.
Bibby, Wells, Peja, KT, Miller
Minutes: 31; +/-: +3
Margin per "game": 4.6
Advantage: SAR +0.6

Bibby, Martin, Garcia, SAR, Miller
Minutes: 41; +/-: -5
Margin per "game": -5.9
vs.
Bibby, Martin, Garcia, KT, Miller
Minutes: 211; +/-: +9
Margin per "game": 2.0
Advantage: KT +7.9

Bibby, Martin, Peja, SAR, Miller
Minutes: 66; +/-: -10
Margin per "game": -7.3
vs.
Bibby, Martin, Peja, Thomas, Miller
Minutes: 161; +/-: -41
Margin per "game": -12.2
Advantage: SAR +4.9

What conclusion to draw from this? Who knows. SAR seemed to play slightly better than KT with the starters. KT seemed to play better with some of the bench players. It will be interesting as the season goes on to see which player has better team numbers with Artest.

And, eventually, with enough minutes Artest's impact on the team can be measured against Peja's. That should be fun.

 

[Purple Reign]

DISCLAMER: I ain't that smart to try to figure all of that out!!

 

[sloter]

I used to care about stats ...

 

[SacKings4Life21]

SAR/KT talks cont.

Well as far as I can see... Artest now make our starting line up effing tough to beat when we going health and Chemestry... so with that said, why do we want either of the 2 palyers... we need a post defender and I think we should trade to get one... I know that joel prisbilla is a FA and he is the type i would want to back up miller... great defender.... but If we had to keep 1 player to start, i dunno I like what SAR can do, and he is mor econsistent when healthy... But I want a post defender... Iam going to go reaserch.

 

[kingkung]

stats

those stats seem totally meaningless.

 

[Troy]

those stats seem totally meaningless.

Come on Nbrans put a good deal of time on this analysis. It puts a # to something like pts, rebounds, shooting % for a player and compares it to who was on the floor. In the real world, many tough decisions are based on lots of analysis like this. In the NBA, it can come down to other intangible things that don't get a # to plug into a formula and get a definitive answer.

 

[KP]

Come on Nbrans put a good deal of time on this analysis. It puts a # to something like pts, rebounds, shooting % for a player and compares it to who was on the floor. In the real world, many tough decisions are based on lots of analysis like this. In the NBA, it can come down to other intangible things that don't get a # to plug into a formula and get a definitive answer.

In the NBA it comes down to Wins, and the team wins more with KT starting than it does with SAR starting and thats with a more injury depleted team. Still... put Artest in the starting lineup and now you have to rethink every thing, start over. I still think Both Reef and Kenny can score, Reef plays a little better D, and Kenny rebounds a whole lot better, we need rebounds from whoever plays with Brad, so I'd pair him with Brad more if I was the coach. Just my opinion, although it's really debateable either way... it's that close. Matchups would dictate who starts in a vacum but you need continuity in this league, so guys can get used to their roles, and so the 1st and 2nd teams can develop chemistry.

 

[HaraWish]

Good Work.

But I'm afraid that KT was not good in the early season. To make it clear, we need to exclude some early ugly games. In fact, who knew KT did pretty well without SAR?

However it's very interesting stats. Thanks.

 

[mcsluggo]

You run into sample size problems for the comparisons you make.

IN two of the three comparisons you profile, one of the two players has less than one game's worth of minutes. Not enough data.

 

[SCKingsfan]

I thin this whole SAR or KT thing is overplayed. AS KP said, it's really all about match ups. Each brings their own brand. Neither is going to be a dominant player night in and night out. This whole argument about who starts seems like a misguided pissing match as far as i'm concerned (or perhaps a pride issue - more for KT than SAR it seems....) I think that both will and should get good minutes, depending on match ups and who's got the hot hand. Not like one will be sitting on the bench while the other plays 40+ minutes. just not going to happen, and doesn't have to. We'll see what Adelman does with it.

 

[Bricklayer]

I vote for Option C (bring in a new guy) thx.

Have been watching some of those numbers myself trying to figure out the KT/SAR question and just nothing jumps out as conclusive. SAR scores in the post (pre-injury) and plays respectable man defense. He does not rebound or clog the lane. KT rebounds but can't stop the bigger guys he faces or clog the lane. Neither guy fits the profile of what we need -- a guy who rebounds AND clogs the lane.

 

[Goo]

Calling playmaker007 for help.........
j/k

Those stat didn't mean much Garcia/Kmart/Bibby play like crap early in the season so Bibby, Martin, Garcia, SAR, Miller can't really use as benchmark.

I would like to reserve my judgement until I see a healthy 100% Bibby/Wells/RA/Reef/Miller + KT/Martin/Garcia. If <-- 8 men rotation don't win 7 games out of 10 I will agree KT fit in better and Reef should lead the 2nd until.

 

[Goo]

I vote for Option C (bring in a new guy) thx.

Have been watching some of those numbers myself trying to figure out the KT/SAR question and just nothing jumps out as conclusive. SAR scores in the post (pre-injury) and plays respectable man defense. He does not rebound or clog the lane. KT rebounds but can't stop the bigger guys he faces or clog the lane. Neither guy fits the profile of what we need -- a guy who rebounds AND clogs the lane.

Reef does rebound, you will see after he able to eat he is not even 60%.

 

[bozzwell]

I vote for Option C (bring in a new guy) thx.

Have been watching some of those numbers myself trying to figure out the KT/SAR question and just nothing jumps out as conclusive. SAR scores in the post (pre-injury) and plays respectable man defense. He does not rebound or clog the lane. KT rebounds but can't stop the bigger guys he faces or clog the lane. Neither guy fits the profile of what we need -- a guy who rebounds AND clogs the lane.

And we need that guy ASAP. Brad and Bibby are already new scapegoats on Kingsfans, since Pedja's gone. Defensive presence at 4 will more then compensate for Bibby's non-defense and Brad's slow, ground bound game, and opponents will still have to worry about B&B on offense. The way Artest has been posting up so far, I don't know if we even need another post up guy on offense. GP just get us a big bad guy to man the middle on D and that's it.

 

[SK23]

SAR is better at the 4 position. Get rid of Miller and get a defensive presence in the paint or at least someone who is willing to play defense.

 

[Bricklayer]

Reef does rebound, you will see after he able to eat he is not even 60%.

He wasn't rebounding when he could eat.

In fact he has barely rebounded in years.

Not what we need. Kind of reminds me of an Antawn Jamison character, or a younger Juwann Howard right now. Man with offensive game but without a true position.

 

[ForlornKing]

I say trade Shareef.

 

[playmaker0017]

He wasn't rebounding when he could eat.

In fact he has barely rebounded in years.

That's just not true.

He injured his back in Atlanta and went from 9-10 rebounds a game to 8. Then went to Portland to ride the bench. Then played SF and still grabbed 7 rebounds.

Then came here started the year off average at 8 rebounds a game and then hurt his back again - shooting it down to 6. He played through it.

Now, he's got a broken jaw and can't eat and lost weight.

Is he a monster rebounder? No. Never has been.

Should he get 8-9 rebounds after all this has passed, I think so ...

 

[playmaker0017]

SAR is better at the 4 position. Get rid of Miller and get a defensive presence in the paint or at least someone who is willing to play defense.

This is kind of where I sit.

Miller doesn't play defense. Miller is easily shut down with token defense and all his pretty passing and amazing shots go away.

Reef on the other hand, does play defense. He doesn't get shut down easily and can score night in and night out. He's the ONLY player on the roster to ever average 20PPG over a complete season (and truthfully over his career) and do so on 15 shots.

Right now, we don't NEED a passing center. We don't need a dedicated center to pass the ball into the post. Any one of our players can make that pass.

I know everyone thinks we're shored up in the post, but I don't really think we are. Bonzi is good, but he's a mouse in the house. Artest is decent enough ... but I think you need a dedicated player in there. Artest has an inside game and an outside game, neither of which is overly dominant, they are just above average. Bonzi is a garbage man and plays better in that role. Reef is a post player.

Jeez - that actually sounds like a team.

Now, I'd keep both Reef and Miller - IF Miller makes a harder commitment to defense on his man. Miller is valuable, but his defensive woes outweigh his random offensive production anyday.

 

[CruzDude]

KT is doing just fine now. Having SAR off the bench with Kevin, Cisco and Ronnie Price (I like him much more than Hart) gives Kings 9 deep plus Skinner to give Brad a break.

Brad should be back next week. In meantime, we play Jazz twice who have Jaron Collins in middle with OTag off bench. SAR probably matches up with Collins and Skinner agains OTag-a-Ton.

But I like Bonzi-Bibby out front and Ron-SAR-KT down low with Kevin, Cisco and Skinner off bench, for now at least. Then when Brad comes back we may see more of Skinner or SAR in the middle depending on matchups.

 

[playmaker0017]

KT is doing just fine now. Having SAR off the bench with Kevin, Cisco and Ronnie Price (I like him much more than Hart) gives Kings 9 deep plus Skinner to give Brad a break.

KT may be doing fine, but so was Shareef.

KT's performance off the bench was subpar, no doubt ... but you don't get a starting position for playing poor in your other position.

Also, I think Reef with the second unit is a major mistake. No team will respect Price, Cisco, Kevin from deep. So, teams will clog the middle and Reef will be rendered useless on offense. Kevin, Cisco and Price won't be able cut easily because of the spacing and it will hurt them.

Thomas, if he's on, would be perfect because he pulls the middle out. He'd allow the little guys to drive into the lane and finish easy shots or take that sweet 12 footer himself.

Just the way I see it.

 

[VF21]

Oh lord. This again?

Sorry, but I can no longer handle statistical analysis that compares players, especially under the following conditions:

1. The poster of the initial thread cannot even draw any conclusions from his post.
2. It involves SAR.

Statistics without a posed conclusion for discussion and/or debate are just a bunch of numbers.

GO KINGS!

 

[nbrans]

Oh lord. This again?

Sorry, but I can no longer handle statistical analysis that compares players, especially under the following conditions:

1. The poster of the initial thread cannot even draw any conclusions from his post.
2. It involves SAR.

Statistics without a posed conclusion for discussion and/or debate are just a bunch of numbers.

GO KINGS!

Thanks, VF21, very nice post. Utterly necessary.

My own personal opinion, which I didn't feel the need to foist on people in this case, is that SAR is better statistically overall, given that he plays better with the starters, and the starters + Martin. The second group that I posted, with Bibby, Martin, Garcia and Miller, mostly only played together while SAR has been hurt, so KT's advantage there has to be taken with a grain of salt.

And I'll try and remember that SAR and statistics shant be discussed from now on.

 

[thesanityannex]

Also, I think Reef with the second unit is a major mistake. No team will respect Price, Cisco, Kevin from deep. So, teams will clog the middle and Reef will be rendered useless on offense. Kevin, Cisco and Price won't be able cut easily because of the spacing and it will hurt them.
.

Not much different than Bibby and Artest from deep.

 

[nbrans]

It's now possible to compare Artest and Peja, at least with one unit:

Bibby, Martin, Peja, Thomas, Miller
Minutes: 161; +/-: -41
Margin per "game": -12.2
vs.
Bibby, Martin, Artest, Thomas, Miller
Minutes: 36; +/-: +7
Margin per "game": +9.3
Advantage: Artest +21.5

CONCLUSION: Artest is making a difference.

It will also be noted that nowhere were Shareef Abdur-Rahim and stats mentioned herewith. No VF21s were harmed in the making of this post.

 

[thesanityannex]

Wow. That is quite a difference. It was obvious by watching he is a difference maker, but I had no idea it was that much.


Question: How is everyone changing their names to purple?

 

[VF21]

Thanks, VF21, very nice post. Utterly necessary.

My own personal opinion, which I didn't feel the need to foist on people in this case, is that SAR is better statistically overall, given that he plays better with the starters, and the starters + Martin. The second group that I posted, with Bibby, Martin, Garcia and Miller, mostly only played together while SAR has been hurt, so KT's advantage there has to be taken with a grain of salt.

And I'll try and remember that SAR and statistics shant be discussed from now on.

I didn't say they shouldn't be discussed. My comments were primarily that without an initial conclusion it really just looks like a bunch of numbers. Statistics can be juggled to say just about anything. If you at least posit a hypothesis on what you think they mean, it gives a much better basis for argument, agreement, debate, discussion, etc.

The comment you made in your stern rebuff to me was actually IMHO the one you might have made right at the beginning.

As far as comparing Artest to Peja, one comment...who cares?

Anyone who had to check statistics to see the difference in the Kings in Tuesday's game is in a totally difference universe apparently than I.

 

[VF21]

Question: How is everyone changing their names to purple?

They aren't doing it. Contributing members now get an additional bonus: their names are bolded in purple.

 

[thesanityannex]

They aren't doing it. Contributing members now get an additional bonus: their names are bolded in purple.

Thanks. Quite confusing at first as I scrambled around the site trying to change my own.

 

[VF21]

KT may be doing fine, but so was Shareef.

KT's performance off the bench was subpar, no doubt ... but you don't get a starting position for playing poor in your other position.

Also, I think Reef with the second unit is a major mistake. No team will respect Price, Cisco, Kevin from deep. So, teams will clog the middle and Reef will be rendered useless on offense. Kevin, Cisco and Price won't be able cut easily because of the spacing and it will hurt them.

Thomas, if he's on, would be perfect because he pulls the middle out. He'd allow the little guys to drive into the lane and finish easy shots or take that sweet 12 footer himself.

Just the way I see it.

SAR is doing pretty well coming from the bench. KT, on the other hand, shows us a much sparser performance coming off the bench.

KT has seemed to really flourish during his stint as starter.

Using those facts, why shouldn't we continue to utilize the players in the same way?

As far as teams not respecting Kevin, Cisco and Price from deep, I don't think that's exactly cast in stone. Kevin is really beginning to step up his game outside the arc. Cisco's shot will come. Price? Well, you may be right on that one...