Remarkable Story from Russia

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3984951.stm

Life ebbs away from Russian villages


By Damian Grammaticas
BBC Moscow correspondent
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There are growing fears that Russia is facing a population crisis that could see the country lose up to 50 million people in the next 50 years.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, birthrates and male life expectancy have suffered sharp declines. The effects are particularly visible in rural areas, where populations have been dying off or moving to towns and cities.

It is having a dramatic effect on Russia's traditional rural villages. Many villages are shrinking in size, and thousands have been abandoned altogether.

Five hours' drive north east of Moscow, you can see the change happening in the Kostroma region, where the problem of abandoned villages has reached epidemic proportions.

This is the ancient heartland of Russia. The Volga river winds through a region of rolling hills and expansive forests. Centuries ago, Russians cleared patches of Kostroma's woodland for their farms.

Dotted here and there are the old villages where they made their homes. Houses built from wooden logs cluster in clearings in the forest. Many are picturesque places, but they are emptying and the life is ebbing out of them.

Wooden hearts

Isupovo is typical of Kostroma's problems. There used to be around 30 families in the village, their log cabins stretched along a hillside. Isupovo has a pond surrounded by bulrushes, and a crumbling old church, the cross atop its onion domes hangs at a crazy angle.

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Nobody will be left, new people won't come here, there is nothing to do, we old people will just die
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Tatiana


Vasily Bykov is the last person left in his village. Everyone else has abandoned Isupovo. When I arrived, Vasily stumbled out of his home to greet me, surprised to see a visitor.

Vasily is now an old man, with thick, bushy moustache. He's lonely here, but he has no relatives and nowhere else to go.

Ruefully, Vasily told me: "There is an old song called My Wooden Village. It's about people who leave their village, people who have wooden hearts, they betray the land that fed them. They just leave everything behind."

Vasily showed me where Isupovo used to have two schools, a post office, a church. The old wooden houses are slowly rotting away, roofs have caved in, saplings sprout through the floors, and cobwebs hang from the eaves.

Homes hewn from the trees are being reclaimed by the woods.

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Last man: Vasily Bykov has no relatives and nowhere else to go

Across Russia rural communities are dying. The most recent census found that of Russia's 155,000 villages, 13,000 have been deserted, and another 35,000 have seen their populations dwindle to fewer than 10 inhabitants.

Underlying this change is the dramatic decline of Russia's population. In the decade after 1992 Russia's population fell from 149 million to 144 million, and the problem is getting worse.

The UN's Population Division projects a "medium case scenario" under which Russia's population could drop by another 20 million over the next 20 years. Russian projections of a "worst case scenario" show Russia's population could decline to around 100 million by 2050.

It was in the late 1980s that birth rates in Russia began to fall sharply and death rates to rise. The social shocks delivered by the collapse of the Soviet Union led to poverty and economic crisis. Women began having fewer children, and deaths rates, particularly among men, have climbed dramatically.

Memories

Alcoholism and poor diet, coupled with diseases like tuberculosis and a crisis in health care, have all meant more and more Russian men dying younger. Average life expectancy for a Russian man is now just 59 years.

Many traditional rural buildings are decaying

Runovskoye is slowly slipping the way of Isupovo. It is a couple of hours' drive away in the region of Yaroslavl, one of Russia's ancient kingdoms.

Its wooden houses are better kept, some have pretty gardens full of flowers in summer. But already they stand next to homes that have been abandoned.

There are only a dozen inhabitants left in Runovskoye, mostly retirees who have been unable to move away.

I find Katerina milking her cow, part of a small herd which is all that is left of Runovskoye's communist-era collective farm.

The rural economy in places like this was already in decline before the collapse of communism. Since then the process has accelerated. Mass migration to towns means only the old remain.

"I don't feel bitter, just sad," Katerina tells me. "We've worked here for nearly 50 years. But we earn so little. I only hope I will have enough money to last me until I die."

Nearby, washing her clothes in the village pond, is Tatiana. She lived in Runovskoye through World War II, and times of famine.

For her, its best days were when Leonid Brezhnev ran the Soviet Union. After this winter she does not believe her village will survive for long.

"Nobody will be left, new people won't come here, there is nothing to do, we old people will just die," Tatiana says. So hidden in Russia's forests is a way of life that has lasted for centuries, but which is dying off. The result can be seen most starkly in Isupovo, where Vasily Bykov remains the last survivor. A whole village reduced to just one man and his memories. Soon there will be nothing at all.

 
The same thing is happening here in the upper Midwest States and many parts of Western Europe. If it were not for Mexican immigration, the United States would have a declining population today.

I suppose that capitalism does have something to do with lower birth rates and the migration of people from desolate regions of the planet.

Aside from native Americans. the upper Midwest States were populated during the later part of the 19th Century and the first part of the 20th Century by Europeans. Most of the northern immigrants came from Germany, Ukraine, Russia, Sweden and Norway. These folks were escaping the tyrany and poverty of Europe. The United States provided them an opportunity to make something of themselves. Now their grand-children are leaving the northern prairie for other opportunities. Native Americans moved around for similar reasons before the Europeans came.

Not many people want to farm in the Dakotas or Minnesota these days. One can only imagine what farming in northern Russia is like. People come and they go, and it has been that way for millenia. They came to the upper Midwest for free land and jobs. New people are coming here for jobs. Maybe California will look like Hong Kong someday, then people will start moving back to the Dakotas.
 
Well, the world as a whole is in desperate need of declining, or at least stabilizing population. (And it does track with wealth normally. But that's obviously not the case in Russia. )

In any case though, while its a good thing in a lot of ways, putting the human face on it is always a little sad.
 
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Great. Let's kill a billion Chinese, that surely will help solve the problem too.

Regardless, there was a recent published prediction by the UN that in 300 years world's population will stabilize itself anyway.
 
sloter said:
Great. Let's kill a billion Chinese, that surely will help solve the problem too.

Regardless, there was a recent published prediction by the UN that in 300 years world's population will stabilize itself anyway.
Well yes, but if you read that report I'm sure you noted that the authors made all sorts of assumptions/hopes that people would start having fewer children. Basically if the worldwide average birthrate quickly declined to 2 children per woman.

BTW, their estimate (same authors) if people kept on having the same number of children as today? In 300 years the population would be 1.34 TRILLION. :eek: :eek:
 
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I'll bet that the world's population levels off long before that. With declining fossil fuel and other mineral reserves, and technology destributed the way it is, I don't see how the world can generate and distribute enough food and necessary supplies to support exceedingly large populations. Unfortunately, in 50 years, there will probably be 60,000,000 people in California and 500,000 in North Dakota. Oh well, it's not my problem.
 
quick dog said:
I don't see how the world can generate and distribute enough food and necessary supplies to support exceedingly large populations.
Cannibalism ? ;) Plenty of people, plenty of food.
 
sloter said:
Great. Let's kill a billion Chinese, that surely will help solve the problem too.

Regardless, there was a recent published prediction by the UN that in 300 years world's population will stabilize itself anyway.
Thomas Malthus predicted that in the 1800's he was just a litle more spesific and less kind about what leveling off meant. ;)
 
I wouldn't worry about overpopulation, the next great plague should take care of things. We could have a great time betting on what it'll be. AIDS? Airborne Ebola? Drug-resistant TB? You could get great odds on SARS right now, it's really flying under the radar...
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Seems like just yesterday we were worried about The Population Bomb. What's Erlich got to say for himself?

It's like how people worry about global warming, when clearly that's what's keeping the next Ice Age at bay. ;)
 
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