Because that's what a discussion is?
Race to the Bottom thread
- Thread starter iowamcnabb
- Start date
Because that's what a discussion is?
Of course it does. But also... If we finish with the 4th worst record (likely the lowest we would fall based on current win percentages and projections from past performance), that is only a 2.2% chance of drafting 8th. In fact, wherever we finish in the bottom 4, our most likely draft position will be 5th or 6th. If we run off 4 wins in a row it may be time to get a little worried, but until/unless that happens the level of worry right now feels out of step with the actual odds.
We didn't have to draft Davion. We could have drafted All-Star Jalen Johnson instead, a guy who plays the same coveted wing position as Kuminga and Wagner, and also a guy who was (or at least should have been) in play at that pick. Go back and look at any mock draft from the last 20 years. There are great players taken all up and down the board. In almost every year that the Kings drafted a mediocre player in the mid-lottery there was a very very good talent they passed on.
This is exactly the counter argument that I've been making in this thread. Worrying about getting pick #5 or better is worrying about the wrong thing. The right thing to worry about is making sure you pick the right player wherever you get slotted in the lottery and unlike the lottery itself which is a random draw, scouting and evaluating prospects is fully within the team's control.
BUT ALSO... I think about the draft differently because I don't buy into consensus. This is an opportunity to add a significant talent to the roster at a price which is below market value for at least the first 4 seasons of their career and often the first 8 if you can get them to extend. The current CBA has screwed with this with all of the automatic incentives but we'll have a new CBA soon and it appears like we'll have new lottery odds too. Even if I don't get the superstar I'm coveting, if I do my job correctly I'm getting a significant asset. Worry about what you can control not what you can't.
And when I look at the top 10 this year I see 4 players that I would be really happy about drafting and another 4 players that I have some reservations about but seem likely to be future NBA starters. Looking at a recent mock draft, the players that I personally am very excited about are slotted in at 2, 3, 4, and 10 and I would rank them in this order: 4, 3, 2, 10. So I feel like worst-case here if I fall to 7 (and right now there is a slim chance of us falling lower than that) I have a pretty good chance at grabbing my #4 ranked prospect. Groovy. And if the current consensus stands, even at pick #4 I'm potentially in position to nab my number 1 prospect and even better I'm getting them at a significant cost savings because of the lower salary scale at that draft position.
Nowhere did anyone say that finishing last is a BAD thing with regards to lottery odds. I wish folks could both read and comprehend what's being stated.
What I'm saying is that finishing last in the NBA pre-lottery should not be looked upon as the salvation of our franchise (as so many seem to deem it to be). Everyone keeps harping on how the lottery will be our great savior ("as long as we finish top 5, our franchise is saved OMFG !!!!!!"
). In fact, it is just playing roulette without good odds for us, no matter where we end pre-lottery. This year may have slightly better odds of getting someone decent to good, but we see this same thing every single year. The team with the worst record doesn't get the #1 pick. Teams with much better records often jump into the top 3. And, every year it seems there are "can't miss" players that turn out to be average, at best, if they can even stay healthy.At this point (assuming we keep the worst record until the end of the year):
We're likely to pick 4th or 5th. Only under extremely lucky circumstances would we do better than that.
We have no idea how any of these players will perform in the NBA. We can guess, but we don't know. That's both physically and mentally, by the way.
We have to hope that our FO picks the best player that will work for our team.
We have to hope that our FO can build a team that works around that player (and the other quality players we have next year).
We have to hope our coaching staff develops that player and establishes a culture and an offense/defense that works with the players we have.
We have to hope that the player will embrace Sacramento and live up to the hype.
That's all a stack of hope and wishes. But hey, you do you. I refuse to pretend that an outside chance of a good result is the sure-fire "franchise savior" everyone else keeps worshipping it as.
Hey, if it works out good for us, fantastic! Nobody will be happier than I will be! But let's quit pretending that it is the end-all be-all of team building and success. Because it certainly isn't. It is only one small part.
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SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Well, I'll tell you what, not sure how accurate tankathons sim thingie is but 8 out of 10 times Kings drop to 5 and the Pacers and Nets seem to stay in that top 4 more often than not. Gotta win a few more games but no more than that! Get 2nd or 3rd worst and lessen those chances of pick 5. haha. Pick 5 to 7 unless someone drops really isn't much of a difference from the looks of it.
Nowhere did anyone say that finishing last is a BAD thing with regards to lottery odds. I wish folks could both read and comprehend what's being stated.
What I'm saying is that finishing last in the NBA pre-lottery should not be looked upon as the salvation of our franchise (as so many seem to deem it to be). Everyone keeps harping on how the lottery will be our great savior ("as long as we finish top 5, our franchise is saved OMFG !!!!!!"
At this point (assuming we keep the worst record until the end of the year):
We're likely to pick 4th or 5th. Only under extremely lucky circumstances would we do better than that.
We have no idea how any of these players will perform in the NBA. We can guess, but we don't know. That's both physically and mentally, by the way.
We have to hope that our FO picks the best player that will work for our team.
We have to hope that our FO can build a team that works around that player (and the other quality players we have next year).
We have to hope our coaching staff develops that player and establishes a culture and an offense/defense that works with the players we have.
We have to hope that the player will embrace Sacramento and live up to the hype.
That's all a stack of hope and wishes. But hey, you do you. I refuse to pretend that an outside chance of a good result is the sure-fire "franchise savior" everyone else keeps worshipping it as.
Hey, if it works out good for us, fantastic! Nobody will be happier than I will be! But let's quit pretending that it is the end-all be-all of team building and success. Because it certainly isn't. It is only one small part.
The draft IS the end-all-be-all of team building though, unless you're a select few franchises that are able to attract key free agents. You can make all the trades in the world, but you already need talent to get truly impactful franchise level guys.
Getting that guy doesn't have to be in the top 5, but it's pretty well proven at this point you're far more likely to FIND that guy in the top 5 than not. And without that talent, you're just treading water to mediocrity
Nowhere did anyone say that finishing last is a BAD thing with regards to lottery odds. I wish folks could both read and comprehend what's being stated.
What I'm saying is that finishing last in the NBA pre-lottery should not be looked upon as the salvation of our franchise (as so many seem to deem it to be). Everyone keeps harping on how the lottery will be our great savior ("as long as we finish top 5, our franchise is saved OMFG !!!!!!"
At this point (assuming we keep the worst record until the end of the year):
We're likely to pick 4th or 5th. Only under extremely lucky circumstances would we do better than that.
We have no idea how any of these players will perform in the NBA. We can guess, but we don't know. That's both physically and mentally, by the way.
We have to hope that our FO picks the best player that will work for our team.
We have to hope that our FO can build a team that works around that player (and the other quality players we have next year).
We have to hope our coaching staff develops that player and establishes a culture and an offense/defense that works with the players we have.
We have to hope that the player will embrace Sacramento and live up to the hype.
That's all a stack of hope and wishes. But hey, you do you. I refuse to keep pretending that an outside chance of a good result is the sure-fire "franchise savior" everyone else keeps worshipping it as.
Hey, if it works out good for us, fantastic! Nobody will be happier than I will be! But let's quit pretending that it is the end-all be-all of team building and success. Because it certainly isn't. It is only one small part.
You're just quadrupling down on the strawman at this point. Nothing is guaranteed other than the Kings won't pick lower than 5th if they have the worst record.
If the Kings have the worst record, they have a 40% chance of landing 1-3. That's not extremely lucky.
I just don't know what to tell you at this point. The discussion is borderline nonsensical unless your plan would be to trade the pick for a proven vet.
If you got dealt a 5 and a 7 and I got dealt a pair of kings in a game of blackjack. Would you trade hands with me? Of course not, but for some reason you'd argue with me that I wouldn't be guaranteed to beat you. You'd be correct but I'm going to beat you with that hand way more often than you'd beat me. Arguing about it would never make you ever beat me more often that I'll beat you, so what's the point? Just enjoying the act of arguing against more favorable odds?
You can always trade the pick instead if you want. The pick is an asset to use, not just a player in the draft.
And like you said, it’s the player you pick that’s important! We’ve blown high level picks year after year. Just because we got a top 2 pick doesn’t mean we end up with a Luka, for instance.
No. And if that’s what you get from my discussion then I can’t help you. I’ve been perfectly clear over and over.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
If the Kings have the worst record, they also have a higher chance (47.9%) at dropping all the way down to that 5th pick than they do at landing any of the top 3 picks (42%).
No, but you are FAR more likely to end up with a Luka in the top 3 than you are to end up with him outside the top 3. That part is also proven.
A top 5 pick guarantees nothing; scouting department/development/coaching/surrounding talent also plays a huge role in that players development into being a star or not. But I don't think there's any argument to say that being outside the top 5 is just as good as being in the top 5.
Particularly in this draft class where we are seeing some of the best prospects to come through in a long time. All in the same draft. That doesn't guarantee they're going to hit in the NBA; but I damn well would rather take my chances on us getting a Booz/Peterson/AJ/Caleb than not.
Which brings us back to the point at hand; having the worst record either guarantees we get into that top 4 of an incredible slew of prospects or we get our pick from a tier down (but still really damn good prospects) from guys like Acuff/Flemings/Wagler/Mikel, etc. Or who knows, what if someone in the top 4 gets spooked on Wilson's injury and they pass on him, leaving him for us at 5? Or if teams talk themselves out of Boozer?
This really is the Kings chance to shape their org for the next 15 years. These guys are projected to be that good. I want every single available percentage point and if we miss out on the coin-flip; I want my pick at 5 of the next tier down.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
If I could love this part of your post a million times a day for the rest of my life, I would love this part of your post a million times a day for the rest of my life.
And I'm not arguing any of this, except possibly the bolded part. This is the kind of hyperbole that get said somewhat frequently when NBA drafts roll around. Then it's an Oden, or a Fultz, or whatever, and the fans and team have to stew in their disappointment for years. Let's just hope (not "expect") we get something better than a 4 or 5 pick post lottery, not put these players up on some kind of unattainable goal pedestal, and hope they all end up at least "good". Unless you think they are all as good as LeBron or Kareem?
ShastaKingsFan
Hall of Famer
They really need to a get a Jason Tatum type of impact player. Doesn't have to be a top 10 player of all time type.
A new owner would be wonderful too, but that isn't in the cards at this point
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I know the odds but what's your point here?
sactowndog
Hall of Famer
Do you feel the same if pro tankers talk about across all the game threads. We do a bit this year because most are on board. We did not last year when we also should have tanked and saved our pick.