Projected Draft Order to 14.

[hrdboild]

You also have to relate it back to this particular draft and where the NBA is at in terms of trends. I think you take him and run. If he busts he busts. No matter who they select I doubt the franchise is hinging their hopes on him. Even if he can't learn to be a true wing in the modern NBA he could find a role as an athletic small ball 4 in a switch defense. Skilled, non great athlete 4's aren't great value and this bubble run only made that worse looking at the results. Versatility, athleticism and switchability on the wing is even more valuable now. The trade market for players like Robert Covington vs. superstars like Harden and Westbrook is very telling. VERY.

Part of what I meant when I said Okoro was a less analytics friendly player is that the trends in the NBA have shifted in terms of team composition to the point where he is now a tweener. For most of the modern NBA era teams had a lead guard, 2 SG/SF type wings, a PF and a C. That's what we used to mean when we defined players as a 1, a 2/3, a 4, or a 5. What we're seeing now more and more is that teams are running a lineup with 2 guards, 2 bigger wings who can eat up space in a switching defense and 1 stretch big. The PF position as we used to define it barely exists anymore so the notion that a guy who is somewhere between a 3 and a 4 is a tweener is a thing of the past. Those types of players are arguably the most valuable defenders on the floor now. And the "lead guard" position has been replaced with more of a PG by committee approach where the smaller guard in the lineup is just as likely to be a shooter/scorer type as a playmaker.

So in that context, a guy like Patrick Williams is more valuable because he can play up and swing between those 3/4 positions. Okoro with a short wingspan for a SF is really more of a 2/3 wing and there's less demand for that now. It limits his defensive versatility. Which places even more emphasis on his ability to shoot from the perimeter consistently to justify his place on the floor. 15 years ago a one-on-one stopper who can swing between the 2 and 3 positions and guard the other team's best perimeter scorer was a guy you could build your defense around. Now? He's going to get pick and rolled to death and he might have trouble switching on to super speedy scorers and some taller post players.

I like Okoro a lot, I'm just saying that this is how the league is moving and this is how front offices are going to evaluate him. His low steal rate is a factor in terms of how he looks on paper. Combine that with his smaller size for a wing by modern standards and you have some question marks. Executives don't like question marks they they can't justify to their boss. For teams that rely more on traditional scouting I think when you go to the tape it's easy to fall in love with him and dream on his potential as a two way wrecking ball fan-favorite. I can see Thibodeau in New York taking him, for instance. Charlotte in the past has favored players who fit his profile, though I doubt he's seriously in play at #3. I already expressed that I would love to have him but in the back of my mind I do have to question whether a proven shooter with similar defensive potential and a little more prototypical size for a modern wing would be a smarter choice, and those guys are likely to be available here.

 

[SacTownKid]

As the great football coach Vince Lombardi once said, "Upside and potential mean you haven't done anything yet". Too many times upside is fools gold. How high is Okoro's upside? Is it that he'll eventually become as good an offensive player that Bey and Vassell already are? If your betting on Okoro because of his athleticism, then why not Vassell who is also a very good athlete, and who already can shoot the ball and handle the ball. Just playing Devils advocate......

And in the NBA they say you can't teach size or athletic ability. Physicality matters. This is why players like PJ Tucker have become so valuable. Okoro seems to have that bulldozer potential albeit as a SG/SF. Vassell is more of a lanky player but yeah, his willingness to guard anyone is a major plus Saddiq Bey doesn't have the blaster ability of Okoro but he certainly has a more identifiable skill set but he's possibly a bit of a combo F tweener. With where the Kings sit, at a late lotto pick in an otherwise weak draft, a gamble if the person fits some needs ain't a bad idea IMO. All of them fit so if any of those three names are called I would be OK with it to be honest. Then again, if I had the pick I'd still probably go Precious. That's the physical upside pick there.

 

[dude12]

Watching NBAtv mock draft and Killian Hayes drops to us bypassing S Bey.

 

[SacTownKid]

Part of what I meant when I said Okoro was a less analytics friendly player is that the trends in the NBA have shifted in terms of team composition to the point where he is now a tweener. For most of the modern NBA era teams had a lead guard, 2 SG/SF type wings, a PF and a C. That's what we used to mean when we defined players as a 1, a 2/3, a 4, or a 5. What we're seeing now more and more is that teams are running a lineup with 2 guards, 2 bigger wings who can eat up space in a switching defense and 1 stretch big. The PF position as we used to define it barely exists anymore so the notion that a guy who is somewhere between a 3 and a 4 is a tweener is a thing of the past. Those types of players are arguably the most valuable defenders on the floor now. And the "lead guard" position has been replaced with more of a PG by committee approach where the smaller guard in the lineup is just as likely to be a shooter/scorer type as a playmaker.

So in that context, a guy like Patrick Williams is more valuable because he can play up and swing between those 3/4 positions. Okoro with a short wingspan for a SF is really more of a 2/3 wing and there's less demand for that now. It limits his defensive versatility. Which places even more emphasis on his ability to shoot from the perimeter consistently to justify his place on the floor. 15 years ago a one-on-one stopper who can swing between the 2 and 3 positions and guard the other team's best perimeter scorer was a guy you could build your defense around. Now? He's going to get pick and rolled to death and he might have trouble switching on to super speedy scorers and some taller post players.

I like Okoro a lot, I'm just saying that this is how the league is moving and this is how front offices are going to evaluate him. His low steal rate is a factor in terms of how he looks on paper. Combine that with his smaller size for a wing by modern standards and you have some question marks. Executives don't like question marks they they can't justify to their boss. For teams that rely more on traditional scouting I think when you go to the tape it's easy to fall in love with him and dream on his potential as a two way wrecking ball fan-favorite. I can see Thibodeau in New York taking him, for instance. Charlotte in the past has favored players who fit his profile, though I doubt he's seriously in play at #3. I already expressed that I would love to have him but in the back of my mind I do have to question whether a proven shooter with similar defensive potential and a little more prototypical size for a modern wing would be a smarter choice, and those guys are likely to be available here.

I agree with most of what you say but I think this statement is variable. It depends on what kind of tweener you are. For instance, Thad Young was at one point a seen as a fairly ideal tweener type, not so much anymore. MKG was drafted way high but ended up in that 4/3 spot. And the players that trend more 4 than 3 have to find the right situation. As the league has shifted more towards skill, shooting, ball handling, or breakdown speed players that are really more 4 than 3 aren't totally valuable but they do have a place. It's a drive and dish league and what sets Okoro apart as being different is his ball handling potential, drive potential, and his physical strength. That's the gamble, if he gets a consistent shot down he could be a difference maker. If not, well, he can still be useful but obviously that ceiling lowers and then maybe you try seeing him as more of that Winslow comparison and see if he can be a lead ball handler type. And it's the knocks on him is why he'd be there at 12 to begin with. That's always the rub ain't it?

 

[SacTownKid]

Watching NBAtv mock draft and Killian Hayes drops to us bypassing S Bey.

I've seen more mocks with him dropping. Eh. Still passes the eye test and does have some size so it could be worse. I still can't see how you maximize him next to/behind Fox but he's got a legit chance to survive this franchise over the other PG's like Lewis. A little slow upon takeoff but he's got legit size and uses his body well when creating.

 

[funkykingston]

As the great football coach Vince Lombardi once said, "Upside and potential mean you haven't done anything yet". Too many times upside is fools gold. How high is Okoro's upside? Is it that he'll eventually become as good an offensive player that Bey and Vassell already are? If your betting on Okoro because of his athleticism, then why not Vassell who is also a very good athlete, and who already can shoot the ball and handle the ball. Just playing Devils advocate......

The difference between Vassell and Okoro is that the latter looks to be able to guard 1-4 in the NBA. Vassell can defend guards and some wings, but his slighter build means he's likely never going to be a guy that you have as the primary defender on guys like LeBron or Kawhi. Vassell is a better team/help defender though and has a higher floor offensively.

Saddiq Bey and Okoro are more similar defenders but I guess the thought is that Bey's lack of high end athleticism caps his potential. That it's more likely that Okoro's shooting/offense comes around than Bey becomes a star without plus quickness and vertical pop. I don't know that it's true but I think that's the thought process.

Of the three I like Vassell the most but he doesn't make as much sense if the team plans to keep Hield.

 

[Ron]

1) Anthony Edwards. T-Wolves

2) James Wiseman Golden State

3) Lamello Ball Charlotte

4) Tyrese Haliburton Chicago

5) Deni Avdija Cleveland

6) Isaac Okuro Atlanta

7) Killian Hayes Detroit

8) Devin Vassell New York Knicks

9) Onyeka Okongwu Washington Wizards

10) Kira Lewis. Pheonix Suns

11) Obi Toppin. San Antonio

12) Patrick Williams Sacramento

13) Aaron Nesmith New Orleans

14) Precious Achiuwa Boston

Call me stupid, but I'd rather we take Nesmith and not Pat Williams.
(though the latter is said to be climbing the ladder...)