players to stay away from??

[bajaden]

People say that, but he was one of the best rebounders in the country last year at 10.9rebs a game in 31min. Its really all about that size -- I think he often has shaky form in there, but that's actually probably a good sign for the future. If you are relatively new to the game and can average 10rebs a game on physical ability alone, you might be able to improve further as you learn technique (as opposed to somebody who has perfect technique but is not going to get any bigger and so is maxed out).

On the remainder of the topic, Thabeet remains one of my top 2 guys I want out of this draft -- in a draft without special players the next best thing is I want somebody with a special talent -- Rubio (passing), Thabeet (shotblocking) -- but the guys who are scary are:

Atttide/Intangibles/Red Flags: Jennings, DeRozan, Mullens, maybe Daye for softness, maybe Teague

Limited upside: Hansbrough, Collison, Lawson

What do people see in him: Holiday


And yet I would almost guarantee that somebody on those lists will turn out to be a great pick.

After watching Thabeet play the last couple of years, and he was on TV a lot, my opinion is that when ever he came up against another really good player that was physcial, he just didn't respond to it very well. He got pushed around by guys that were in some cases 6 inches shorter than he was. His rebounding technic is just not very good, and his aggressiviness in going after rebounds just isn't the same as when he trys to block shots.

If your 7'3" and athletic in college, you should be able to grab 12 rebounds a game accidently. Having said all that, I still have to take into account that he hasn't played basketball very long. So all that has time for improvement. And there's no doubt that he will get better. It did bother me that he refused to take part in drills at the combine. Not sure why, but it did raise a little red flag.

Bottom line is that I would love to have both Rubio and Thabeet. But if I have to choose, I'll take Rubio.

 

[hammystyle]

Seriously?

If you break it down statistically, Ty Lawson was amazing last year. Extremely efficient scoring, and what had to be one of the best A/T ratios in recent college history.

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

As for Ty Lawson, I'm very skeptical about how his game will look in the NBA level, but we could definitely do worse with the #23rd pick--that's why he's not a player we should really avoid.

But I can see why hollinger liked him--he really is a stellar college player, especially for point guard standards--he really really looks to pass the ball and has shown that he can pass it well, and to boot the guy was a highly efficient scorer with a 66% TS--in his last year of college, he shot 47% from three and had a sickly high rate of free throws for a point guard. His shooting, passing, and stealing abilities--qualities of a good PG--are all in the elite level in college, and he really showed great improvement in college, improving his three point shooting, stealing, free throw rate, and drastically slashing his turnovers--basically made himself a more all-around player. Statistically, he seems way better than Raymond Felton was in college.

But his game is just involves high speed (UNC's transition offense)--and while the NBA is trending towards more glitzy waterbug PGs who can break down defenses and some such, he needs to tone down his game especially if he somehow is to play for a more halfcourt oriented team. The shooting transition might be interesting--he wasn't this good a three point shooter in the past, so he might not be this good a shooter. And he's got a super poor wingspan, which only exacerbates his lack of height and will definitely make him a prime post up target defensively. But the latter two aren't huge problems, and it's the first one I have most concern with. I think he'll end up being a nice change of pace role player at the end, but nothing like he was in college.

 

[Bricklayer]

People need to get some persepctive -- they make up new rules toi support their arguments. Here are the final year of college shotblocking/rebounding numbers for a handful of pretty decent defensive centers:

Thabeet
10.9rebs 4.2blk

Patrick Ewing
9.2rebs 3.6blk

David Robinson
11.8rebs 4.5blk

Shaquille O'Neal
14.0rebs 5.2blk

Ditkembe Mutombo
12.2rebs 4.7blk

Alonzo Mourning
10.7rebs 5.0blk


Now kindly explain to me again how Thabeet's numbers in these areas don't measure up. Don't measure up to who exactly? Shaq?

 

[kf4l]

I would stay away from Holiday with the #4 pick. Thats way too much of a reach imo.

 

[NME]

If you break it down statistically, Ty Lawson was amazing last year. Extremely efficient scoring, and what had to be one of the best A/T ratios in recent college history.

Yet, the consensus has him going in mid-late to late first round. It's one thing if that's Hollinger's Nice-College-Stats-Rater, but he's calling it his Draft Rater.

 

[Bricklayer]

Yet, the consensus has him going in mid-late to late first round. It's one thing if that's Hollinger's Nice-College-Stats-Rater, but he's calling it his Draft Rater.

John Hollinger is fundamentally unable to distinguish between the two concepts.

 

[Henkel]

I think Holiday has some potential but #4 is was to high to pick him up. He simply hasn't shown me that he is going to turn into a player worthy of that selection.

With the later picks I hope we avoid Collison, Meeks, and Daye. Collison has a slow release on his outside shot and can't finish at the basket. Meeks is only a shooter. He can't handle well enough to get his shot and no team is going run plays to get him open. Doesn't do anything else well, just too one dimesional for me. Daye has some skills but can be taken out of a game by playing him physicialy. He is also a tweener, to slow for small forward and to weak to play in the post.

 

[asakkings]

good post there brick. I dont understand the hate on Thabeet when he fills the biggest need for our team.

 

[One and Done]

Stay away from:

#4:

- Jrue Holiday (hype, hype, hype)

- Tyreke Evans (poor shooter, selfish, sloppy, rumored character issues - as you can guess, I really don't like him)

- Sebastian Jennings

#23:

- Austin Daye (can't add weight to frame, bigtime bust potential)

- Omri Casspi (just not that good at anything, selfish/poor passer, can't defend well, how many average SF's do we need?)

#31:

- Who Cares (this is a second round pick...seriously folks). A second round player won't change our fortunes! But as long as GP doesn't make me laugh like last year (SS, PE Jr.), I'll be happy.

 

[fnordius]

John Hollinger is fundamentally unable to distinguish between the two concepts.

As well as being the #1 name in basketball when it comes to being totally skewed towards offense. If I ever hear him heaping praises on a highly defensive-oriented player, I will be flabbergasted.

 

[bajaden]

Austin Daye...
The Kings and Joe Klien like big men do not mix...

Trust me. Daye is nothing like Joe Kleine. Well, maybe Kleine minus 90 pounds.

 

[bajaden]

Its hard to say, really. This draft is about as hard to predict as any.

A lot of people are saying they dont like Daye, but I would be thrilled to get him with our later picks.

The only thing I can say for sure is that I dont want a player who is injury prone or undersized. The big names im talking about are Lawson and Evans. Lawson because He seems fragile and Evans because I think he is an undersized SG.

You see him as just a shooting guard and I see him as a combo guard. He has point guard skills. He's also a little over 6'5" in shoes, which is average for a shooting guard. So he's not undersized. At least in my opinion. If he is, then just about every shooting guard in the draft is undersized.

 

[bajaden]

People need to get some persepctive -- they make up new rules toi support their arguments. Here are the final year of college shotblocking/rebounding numbers for a handful of pretty decent defensive centers:

Thabeet
10.9rebs 4.2blk

Patrick Ewing
9.2rebs 3.6blk

David Robinson
11.8rebs 4.5blk

Shaquille O'Neal
14.0rebs 5.2blk

Ditkembe Mutombo
12.2rebs 4.7blk

Alonzo Mourning
10.7rebs 5.0blk


Now kindly explain to me again how Thabeet's numbers in these areas don't measure up. Don't measure up to who exactly? Shaq?

Well, two things. Number one. I first judge a player on what I see on the court and not on his stat line. I would guess that I watched Thabeet play well over 30 times. Obviously not all in this last year. So thats what I go by first. I've given my opinion on what I saw, so you can take it for what you think its worth.

Secondly. I no longer have UConn's schedule in front of me. I did post it at the beginning of the season. but if you have the time to look it up. You'll find that they play a very weak schedule at the beginnning of the year. There are some teams that I never heard of. I watched a couple of games where Thabeet was going up against guys that were 6'6" and not particularly athletic. And yeah, he pulled down a lot of rebounds. In my opinion that early schedule inflated his stats to a degree. I went so far as to call UConn a paper tiger because of their schedule.

Well they proved me wrong on the paper tiger part. They ended up being better than I thought they would be. I thought that Thabeet improved more in this last year than he did in the two previous years combined. I believe that there's definitely something there worth persuing. He's a terrific instinctive shot blocker. It just seems to come natural to him. Its reactive. But everything else about his game has come hard for him so for. Its been a long slow learning process, and he still has a long way to go.

He needs to be drafted by a team that doesn't look for him to come in and be and immediate impact player. He's going to need patience and time. I hope he makes me eat my words. Especially if we end up with him. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he does.

 

[fxhsurjono]

#4: hill - thabeet - curry
#23: hansborough - budinger - casspi - (sam)young
#31: christmas - (jermaine)taylor

please please please!!! do not draft curry at 4 please!!!
jrue, jennings, flynn, rubio, tyreke, i'll be fine with any.
please please please!!! do not draft hansborough at 23!
i like dajuan summers and daye if theyre available.
please please please!!! do not draft (jermaine)taylor at 31!
i like claver, pendergraph, gibson to add depth up front.

 

[Kingster]

People need to get some persepctive -- they make up new rules toi support their arguments. Here are the final year of college shotblocking/rebounding numbers for a handful of pretty decent defensive centers:

Thabeet
10.9rebs 4.2blk

Patrick Ewing
9.2rebs 3.6blk

David Robinson
11.8rebs 4.5blk

Shaquille O'Neal
14.0rebs 5.2blk

Ditkembe Mutombo
12.2rebs 4.7blk

Alonzo Mourning
10.7rebs 5.0blk


Now kindly explain to me again how Thabeet's numbers in these areas don't measure up. Don't measure up to who exactly? Shaq?

I'll explain it to you. Your whole approach is logically unsound.
Instead of starting with a sample to confirm your conclusion, you need to look at ALL the college players who had similar stats, including the one's who DIDN'T cut it in the NBA.

 

[Kingster]

Well, two things. Number one. I first judge a player on what I see on the court and not on his stat line. I would guess that I watched Thabeet play well over 30 times. Obviously not all in this last year. So thats what I go by first. I've given my opinion on what I saw, so you can take it for what you think its worth.

Secondly. I no longer have UConn's schedule in front of me. I did post it at the beginning of the season. but if you have the time to look it up. You'll find that they play a very weak schedule at the beginnning of the year. There are some teams that I never heard of. I watched a couple of games where Thabeet was going up against guys that were 6'6" and not particularly athletic. And yeah, he pulled down a lot of rebounds. In my opinion that early schedule inflated his stats to a degree. I went so far as to call UConn a paper tiger because of their schedule.

Well they proved me wrong on the paper tiger part. They ended up being better than I thought they would be. I thought that Thabeet improved more in this last year than he did in the two previous years combined. I believe that there's definitely something there worth persuing. He's a terrific instinctive shot blocker. It just seems to come natural to him. Its reactive. But everything else about his game has come hard for him so for. Its been a long slow learning process, and he still has a long way to go.

He needs to be drafted by a team that doesn't look for him to come in and be and immediate impact player. He's going to need patience and time. I hope he makes me eat my words. Especially if we end up with him. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he does.

Watching Thabeet is going to be worse than watching paint dry. It will be a painfully slow growth process for him. And in the meantime, he will be taking minutes from Spencer, certainly more than 10 minutes a game. You don't take a guy #4 and give him 10 minutes. So on the one hand you get Thabeet with a very long learning curve. And then that same guy is going to take minutes from another guy (Hawes), thereby slowing his growth curve. And this whole argument about the three guys - Hawes, Thompson, Thabeet - sharing the minutes is rubbish. Thabeet isn't sharing minutes with Thompson. And Hawes is a center. By and large, it's a zero-sum for Thabeet and Hawes. That's why they shouldn't think about Thabeet.

PS If anybody doesn't think that it will be MANY YEARS before Thabeet produces, just think about Spencer. He's got a ton more coordination than Thabeet, he's got a high basketball IQ, and he obviously is still not in the top 50% of the league as far as centers is concerned. His learning curve is logrithmic compared to Thabeet, yet it's been two years and we're still waiting for him to come into his own, even to the point that some want to trade him, OR draft another center to usurp his minutes.

 

[Warhawk]

And this whole argument about the three guys - Hawes, Thompson, Thabeet - sharing the minutes is rubbish. Thabeet isn't sharing minutes with Thompson. And Hawes is a center. By and large, it's a zero-sum for Thabeet and Hawes. That's why they shouldn't think about Thabeet.

Wrong. You need at least 3 bigs for a rotation. JT is primarily a 4 that can swing to 3 and 5 in certain situations, but should spend the vast majority of his time at 4. Hawes (like Brad) is a 5 that can definitely play the 4 as well. Thabeet is definitely a 5 who can probably play spot minutes at the 4. There is definitely room for all 3 players. You have 96 minutes at the 4/5 positions per game. Play Hawes and Thompson 35-40 each and Thabeet 16-26. Plenty of time for 3 guys - Thabeet and Thompson playing their "natural" positions and Hawes playing both the 4 and 5, which he is capable of.

Don't forget about some guys getting into foul trouble etc. Some games we have been aching for another big when someone is one the bench for whatever reason......

 

[bajaden]

Wrong. You need at least 3 bigs for a rotation. JT is primarily a 4 that can swing to 3 and 5 in certain situations, but should spend the vast majority of his time at 4. Hawes (like Brad) is a 5 that can definitely play the 4 as well. Thabeet is definitely a 5 who can probably play spot minutes at the 4. There is definitely room for all 3 players. You have 96 minutes at the 4/5 positions per game. Play Hawes and Thompson 35-40 each and Thabeet 16-26. Plenty of time for 3 guys - Thabeet and Thompson playing their "natural" positions and Hawes playing both the 4 and 5, which he is capable of.

Don't forget about some guys getting into foul trouble etc. Some games we have been aching for another big when someone is one the bench for whatever reason......

We could always bring back Mikey Moore!

 

[Bricklayer]

We have a center who actually prefers to play the faceup game, with range out to 3pt land, with passing skills, who actually played a lot of PF this very past season, and yet now he conveniently cannot play anything but 5? The arguments against Thabeet just grow more spurious as we go on and poking holes in them is growing tiresome.

Its not hard:

7'0" C/PF Spencer 34min (20min C, 14min PF)
6'11" PF/C Thompson 34min (34min PF)
7'3" C Thabeet (28min C)

This is hardly a stretch.

P.S. The argument about Thabeet's "painfully slow growth curve" is also rubbish. His growth in college has been phenomenal year to year. And his greatest skill is an instant translator to the pro game. Shotblockers come into the league blocking shots.

 

[hammystyle]

Yet, the consensus has him going in mid-late to late first round. It's one thing if that's Hollinger's Nice-College-Stats-Rater, but he's calling it his Draft Rater.

The consensus ain't always right. His system looks at players who have been successful in the pros and tries to pinpoint the statistical AND physical measurements that are good predictors for pro success.

Personally, I've seen Ty Lawson play a lot, and I always thought he was a lottery pick. He's quick, can pass, plays smartly and in control, can finish, get fouls...I really don't know why he's rated lower than other guys.

I saw them both play a good amount and he was MUCH better than DJ Augustin for instance. I thought he was better than Raymond Felton too. That's two guys who were picked higher than he's rated, and in stronger drafts. I really haven't seen Eric Maynor, Johnny Flynn or Jrue Holiday play much...so I can't say for certain there.

 

[hammystyle]

With a center who actually prefers to play the faceup game, with range out to 3pt land, with passing skills, who actually played a lot of PF this very past season, and yet now he conveniently cannot play anything but 5? The arguments against Thabeet just grow more spurious as we go on and poking holes in them is growing tiresome.

Its not hard:

7'0" C/PF Spencer 34min (20min C, 14min PF)
6'11" PF/C Thompson 34min (34min PF)
7'3" C Thabeet (28min C)

This is hardly a stretch.

Plus if they all turn out to be as good as everyone hopes its really not that hard to get value back for a young talented big man if we needed a trade to balance the roster.

 

[AyeCarly]

#4: hill - thabeet - curry
#23: hansborough - budinger - casspi - (sam)young
#31: christmas - (jermaine)taylor

please please please!!! do not draft curry at 4 please!!!
jrue, jennings, flynn, rubio, tyreke, i'll be fine with any.
please please please!!! do not draft hansborough at 23!
i like dajuan summers and daye if theyre available.
please please please!!! do not draft (jermaine)taylor at 31!
i like claver, pendergraph, gibson to add depth up front.

If you draft Rubio, why not draft people with the biggest verts in the draft. That would play to one of Rubio's strengths, which is the lob pass. Budinger was tied for 3rd best Max vert. at the combine and Taylor was 6th best.

 

[SacKings7]

Wrong. You need at least 3 bigs for a rotation. JT is primarily a 4 that can swing to 3 and 5 in certain situations, but should spend the vast majority of his time at 4. Hawes (like Brad) is a 5 that can definitely play the 4 as well. Thabeet is definitely a 5 who can probably play spot minutes at the 4. There is definitely room for all 3 players. You have 96 minutes at the 4/5 positions per game. Play Hawes and Thompson 35-40 each and Thabeet 16-26. Plenty of time for 3 guys - Thabeet and Thompson playing their "natural" positions and Hawes playing both the 4 and 5, which he is capable of.

Don't forget about some guys getting into foul trouble etc. Some games we have been aching for another big when someone is one the bench for whatever reason......

Agree with everything, but there would be no need for Thabeet to play spot minutes at the 4, nor should there be. He's 7'3, he's going to be playing center unless you pair him with Yao.

 

[Bricklayer]

I'll explain it to you. You're whole approach is logically unsound.
Instead of starting with a sample to confirm your conclusion, you need to look at ALL the college players who had similar stats, including the one's who DIDN'T cut it in the NBA.

I did not start this statistical nonsense attack, and I NEVER claimed that it guaranteed success. But let me hammer away at the statistical nonsense some more while I am at it. And lest I allow that to be twisted anymore by anyone, this is in RESPONSE to the spurious claims that somehow Thabeet's numbers were inferior to what they should have been, NOT an argument that said numbers guarantee success, but shooting down an argument that somehow his numbers can be used against him. So here we go, I already did the legendary defensive centers, so let's do the 7'3"+ monsters:

7'3" Thabeet
10.9rebs 4.2blk

7'4" Ralph Sampson (one fothe great college prospects of all time BTW)
11.7rebs 3.1blk

7'4" Rik Smits (very different sort of player of course)
8.7rebs 3.9blk

7'4" Mark Eaton (pinned to the UCLA benche)
2.0reb 0.5blk

7'6" Shawn Bradley (missed last tow years to go play Mormon)
7.5rebs 5.2blk

7'3" Big Z -- DNP college
7'5" Yao Ming -- DNP college

Hey, about the various defensive roleplayers starting for playoff teams around the league (the ones who actually went to college):

Brendan Haywood
7.3reb 3.6blk

Erick Dampier
9.3reb 3.1blk

Samuel Dalembert
5.7reb 2.1blk

Greg Ostertag (hey why not )
7.5reb 2.9blk

And hey, why not a couple more defensive superstuds?

Tim Duncan
14.7reb 3.3blk

Marcus Camby
8.2reb 3.9blk

Now let's kindly get back to the "core strength" and "no jumper" complaints rather than wasting time on completely spurious statistical arguments. Thabeet's college stats are gold -- right in the mix with all the defensive/rebounding centers we have seen in the league over the years. And he's improved every year.

 

[Section 101]

Wrong. You need at least 3 bigs for a rotation. JT is primarily a 4 that can swing to 3 and 5 in certain situations, but should spend the vast majority of his time at 4. Hawes (like Brad) is a 5 that can definitely play the 4 as well. Thabeet is definitely a 5 who can probably play spot minutes at the 4. There is definitely room for all 3 players. You have 96 minutes at the 4/5 positions per game. Play Hawes and Thompson 35-40 each and Thabeet 16-26. Plenty of time for 3 guys - Thabeet and Thompson playing their "natural" positions and Hawes playing both the 4 and 5, which he is capable of.

Don't forget about some guys getting into foul trouble etc. Some games we have been aching for another big when someone is one the bench for whatever reason......

So you want to take a backup big man at #4 when you got your starters at picks 10 and 12?

The #4 pick needs to be a starter in the near future. I don't see Thabeet beating out Hawes or JT.

 

[Bricklayer]

So you want to take a backup big man at #4 when you got your starters at picks 10 and 12?

The #4 pick needs to be a starter in the near future. I don't see Thabeet beating out Hawes or JT.

In this draft the #4 pick has to be a major player for you and contribtue something you do not have -- this is not a superstar draft. You find a unique talent at #4, you take him. If nothing else the premium placed on quality bigs in the league is such that you can move him/somebody for major goodies in the future.

 

[Kingster]

Wrong. You need at least 3 bigs for a rotation. JT is primarily a 4 that can swing to 3 and 5 in certain situations, but should spend the vast majority of his time at 4. Hawes (like Brad) is a 5 that can definitely play the 4 as well. Thabeet is definitely a 5 who can probably play spot minutes at the 4. There is definitely room for all 3 players. You have 96 minutes at the 4/5 positions per game. Play Hawes and Thompson 35-40 each and Thabeet 16-26. Plenty of time for 3 guys - Thabeet and Thompson playing their "natural" positions and Hawes playing both the 4 and 5, which he is capable of.

Don't forget about some guys getting into foul trouble etc. Some games we have been aching for another big when someone is one the bench for whatever reason......

You're assuming that the three players are interchangable. They are not. No way is Thabeet going to play pf. And no way Thompson is going to play center, certainly not in any minutes that are all significant. It's basically Hawes v. Thabeet.

 

[beb0p]

And don't forget:

6'8" Michael Sweetney
10.4rebs 3.2blk

Having said that, I think Thabeet will be good for 10rebs a game in the NBA if he plays starter mins. He is a little uncoordinated, his strength is not up to par, his rebounding technique is not good, and he does not gather rebound out of his area. But I think he'll do fine just by being so tall. Similar to how Pavel Podkolzine could get a lot of rebs just by being so tall too (unfortunately it's the only skill he has).

In turn, I think Thabeet is a good but not great rebounder. If you're looking for a rebounding monster like Dwight Howard or Shaq, he ain't it. but if you're ok with Yao Ming like numbers, Thabeet can do that. I think of Thabeet as a more agile Yao without the offense. Not an all-star, but a useful role player who can plug a hole better than guys like Mikki Moore.

 

[sidney]

We have a center who actually prefers to play the faceup game, with range out to 3pt land, with passing skills, who actually played a lot of PF this very past season, and yet now he conveniently cannot play anything but 5? The arguments against Thabeet just grow more spurious as we go on and poking holes in them is growing tiresome.

Its not hard:

7'0" C/PF Spencer 34min (20min C, 14min PF)
6'11" PF/C Thompson 34min (34min PF)
7'3" C Thabeet (28min C)

This is hardly a stretch.

P.S. The argument about Thabeet's "painfully slow growth curve" is also rubbish. His growth in college has been phenomenal year to year. And his greatest skill is an instant translator to the pro game. Shotblockers come into the league blocking shots.

This is really ideal. Thabeet has a clear place on this team and would fill the role perfectly. I think he can be right up there with the best defensive monsters the NBA has seen.

I was so hoping we'd get a 1-3 pick along with Washington and find a way to pry theirs away since we have the rare cap space tool this year. Then walk away with Thabeet / Rubio and start our build towards contending. Hard to see that happening now.

A side note is that both Petrie and Westphal have talked in some form about addressing 2 needs - a creative facilitator (read PG) and strengthen the young front line defensively and with rebounding. Thabeet is the only guy who does the second thing in this draft and so while we haven't hardly heard a word about Thabeet talking to the Kings I suspect they are high on him.