Pace is Irrelevant, So What DOES Make Us Win?

Big Cuz 15 said:
it is what it is. i called em newbs last year and got some hate for it. we'll see how it goes throughout cousins contract. we know we can get at least 3 1st round picks for cousins if they decide to trade him. that will give them 3 new jazz band players to fulfill their revolutionary 3.0 position-less fantasy.
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Thats really the biggest fear in this whole wasted season. How much longer will Cuz take all of this? How hard will the FO try to keep him if he wants out? He obviously doesnt fit their dream style of run n gun so would they not hesitate to ship him off and save face by telling the fans that he wanted out and there was nothing they could do? Its all brewing right now, the next year or so will be interesting.
 
KingsFanGER said:
I don't expect an NBA franchise to model their playstyle after the opinions heard during a fan forum.
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To play devils advocate, I expect the FO to take into account the uproar from the fan base and at least attempt to listen rather than talk down to us, when PDA repeatedly has taken the liberty to tell us what style we want to watch.

Now if you want to talk about belittling, I'd say the root of it started with our weasel GM. We were all perfectly fine and supportive of the style which fit our top players and was having the most success we've seen in 8 years. To fire the coach, toss the season aside, then tell us that we actually want to watch something different, and to basically put winning aside until they achieve that? That's straight up belittling the fan base, at best.

What's ****ing belittling is telling an intelligent fan base who are experts on losing basketball, since we've done it year after year and know exactly what it looks like, that chasing something as ridiculous as pace over winning is what we really want. Should be fired for that.
 
i find myself in 100% agreement with brick on this one. adaptability is one of the most important features of any nba front office. adaptability is what has made the san antonio spurs a revelation in the 21st century, not the giddy overreaction we've seen to their "motion offense" (which, by the way, is no more impressive than what the kings accomplished in the early 2000's, more than a decade before all of the hemming-and-hawing over "analytics" began--offensive rating, offensive efficiency, MOV, pace, etc. are all strikingly similar between the '01-'02 kings and the '13-'14 spurs)...

more to the point, the spurs weren't always the darlings of the analytics movement; they used to be a slow-moving defensive powerhouse, but popovich has since adapted to the realities of his aging roster, and crafted a system that reflects those realities. but don't think for a second that he wouldn't still be playing tough and ugly basketball if tim duncan was still able to perform as the stalwart anchor of a defensive juggernaut. pop knows what he has at the top of his roster today, and he fills in the gaps accordingly. likewise, if pete d'allesandro was able to bring in sufficient talent to support his thesis that the kings should be an up-tempo team that shoots a significant number of threes today, then sure, i'd more than willingly have conceded that perhaps mike malone wasn't the right coach for the job. but that's not what d'allesandro has accomplished here in sacramento since he arrived...

to be honest, i'm not sure what to think of the roster PDA assembled. hell, nobody around the league knew what to think of the roster heading into this season. there were lengthy think pieces written on the subject of what the kings' brass was trying to accomplish with this hodge-podge of players. that michael malone was able to adapt this particular roster into a "grit and grind"-styled team that competed nightly with upper-tier western conference opponents speaks to his ability to reach a hastily-assembled group of players, get them to buy into his game plan, and aid them in forming a strong identity, a skill that i believe is essential to any successful coaching career. is malone the tactician that popovich is? certainly not. were he and his staff the innovative force that the rick adelman/pete carril combo proved to be? no way. but that malone wasn't able to adapt this particular roster into an analytics-minded gm's wet dream is hardly cause for scorn, much less the loss of his job (and analytics-minded guys like zach lowe seem to agree)...

darren collison, rudy gay, and ben mclemore are all a shade above league-average from three, so yes, i suppose they could be shooting a few more threes per game, but i'm not even sure how that correlates to the faster "pace" that PDA prizes so highly. with demarcus cousins as their batman and rudy gay as their robin, the kings are always going to be an inside-out team. three-pointers should primarily be coming within the flow of a halfcourt offense. they represent a second or third option, behind a more statistically-preferable cousins or gay post-up (edit: or free throw attempts--cousins is third in the nba at 8.5/game, gay is 17th at 5.7/game). if the kings were somehow able to pull off a trade to get kyle korver on this team, then i would certainly want to see cousins and gay pass out of the post much more often. in the realm of the possible, the kings could have easily signed anthony morrow to come off the bench, and in such a scenario, i'd have loved to see a higher percentage of threes attempted when he was on the court. but they're relying on a shaky second-year player, a rookie who consistently looks overmatched, and perhaps the most famous joke of the analytics movement as their threats from deep? if i was mike malone, i certainly would have been satisfied just getting this team to play competent defense, as well; the winning record with a healthy demarcus cousins must have been a wonderful bonus...
 
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I will say that I appreciated Pete D'Alessandro sticking around after the scheduled hour and answering additional questions from the fans that came out to KHTK. I thought that was a generous and classy gesture on his part. That said, after he answered my question during that period I decided I'd rather head to work than stick around any longer. It wasn't that I felt I was being shined on or lied to, it was because I got the feeling that D'Alessandro was giving an honest answer and I was horribly disappointed by it.

I don't know that I can remember verbatim what I asked as it was a slightly rambling question but it was something to the effect of: "When I look at this roster and saw the way the team was playing to start the season I got the feeling that we had a GM and a coach that were in lock step and it was exciting to me. It seemed like you were giving Malone exactly the type of players to play the style he was having the team play. Mike Malone wanted to play a tough defensive style with a largely halfcourt offense that benefits DeMarcus Cousins. I mean, Boogie is so talented that he can do a lot of things, but I think he's best from the elbow and on the blocks. Rudy Gay was inefficient in Toronto because he worked so much on the perimeter and he seems much more effective slashing to the basket and posting up. Carl Landry is a post up guy. JT works best grinding it out in the half court. Ben is athletic but I think he works best at a controlled pace and knowing his role. Evans, Hollins, Stauskas, and McCallum aren't speedsters either. So I guess what I want to know is why you look at the roster you put together and think they should be trying to outrun other teams?"

And what PDA said was, "Why do I think that the Kings should be running more? Darren Collison, Derrick Williams, Omri Casspi and Ben McLemore. Those guys are all terrific athletes. And in DeMarcus we have a guy who can get a basket at any time. So we push the ball in transition, look for a quick basket and if we don't get it, then we throw the ball into DeMarcus and let him work. Everyone can run. Those great Kings teams with Vlade ran all the time."

What I took out of the whole morning at the studio was that (1) D'Alessandro had a much higher opinion of the roster he assembled than any knowledgeable NBA fan, writer or analyst would credit it with and (2) he thought that roster was best suited to fastbreaking basketball. He was clear that he didn't want to be the Paul Westhead Nuggets but he legitimately thought the Kings were a more talented running team than most in the NBA. It cemented in my mind that I don't think he really understands the roster that he put together.

I criticized a LOT of PDA's moves the last two seasons. I didn't think the Kings were going to compete this year and I feared that D'Alessandro made just enough improvement to make the Kings bad but not awful. In other words to get them in that no man's land where they don't have the caproom or player potential (beyond Boogie) to drastically improve but will be deep enough in the lottery to not get a game changing player. And then when I saw how they came out of the gate (well, AFTER the GS game) playing gritty, aggressive ball I had to concede that PDA made the right moves to give Malone the type of players he needed. THAT's why Malone's firing seems so ridiculous to me. PDA built a team that really could only win playing that style only to have him say that was the wrong style.

I liked Mike Malone. At the same time I don't think he was an amazing coach. But what his firing told me is that we have a front office that very likely just flat out doesn't get it. And that's why I'm upset.
 
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Swaze said:
And then didn't listen to the crowd when the "crowd" suggested drafting Payton. Actually just about everyone in the room suggested Payton except Vivek......that whole thing was kinda funny. What's the point of getting a dozen opinions if you just ignore all of them?
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I also loved the "maybe we should just try to hit a homerun and go with the guy with the highest upside" line from D'Alessandro. To be fair it looked like they were willing to gamble on trading up for Embiid if he slipped a bit but then to turn around and take a guy with a relatively low upside in Stauskas seemed odd. Payton, Exum, LaVine, Saric, Nurkic and Capela would have been gambling on upside and going for a homerun type player. I didn't hate the Stauskas pick and he gave some qualities (outside shooting, ballhandling, P&R play, court awareness) that I thought the team could use even if they did just draft a SG in the previous year, but he wasn't the guy I wanted and he most definitely wasn't a big gamble or a potential home run guy. I've been surprised how much Stauskas has struggled and I DO expect him to be a good player down the road, but I never saw him as a high upside pick.
 
Bricklayer said:
So, I figured it was about time for some actual "data points", not empty spin from members of the rodent family (its actually an order, not a family btw). So here we go, a fairly comprehensive rundown of the stats which do correlate with Kings wins/losses, and the stats that don't:

Part I -- What Does NOT Matter

1) Pace. Pace? PACE.
Kings Pace in 16 wins: 93.74
Kings Pace in 21 losses: 93.76

2) Assists. Do NOT Matter.
Kings Assists in 16 wins: 19.4
Kings Assists in 21 losses: 20.0

3) Three Point Shooting. Does NOT matter.
Kings Three Points Makes/Takes in 16 wins: 4.9/14.3
Kings Three Points Makes/Takes in 21 losses: 5.7/16.5

And on that latter the gap is big enough you could almost argue for a NEGATIVE correlation. I.e. the more threes we shoot, the more we lose.

You will of course immediately notice that those categories just happen to be presumed fetishes for NBA 3.0. The irony that the neophytes would focus on exactly the areas that have the least to do with us winning is thick.


Part II -- What DOES Matter

1) Free Throws
Kings Free Throw Makes/Takes in 16 wins: 26.8/33.0
Kings Free Throw Makes/Takes in 21 losses: 20.9/28.1

2) Turnovers
Kings Turnovers in 16 wins: 13.9
Kings Turnovers in 21 losses: 16.7

3) Defense, in ALL its particulars
Kings Defensive Stats in 16 wins: OppFG: .412, Opp3pt%: .294, Steals: 7.1, Blocks: 4.6
Kings Defensive Stats in 21 losses: OppFG: .476, Opp3pt%: .357, Steals: 6.0, Blocks: 3.6

Rebounding also comes in at a weaker correlation, +5.3 in wins, +4.1 in losses.

So to sum up: Kings play tough and physical? Kings win. Kings push the pace, make pretty passes, shoot lots of threes for casual fans? Irrelevant. Maybe even damaging if it leads to turnovers.


Part III -- Individual Players

Cousins in wins: 25.8pts (.502 .850) 12.4reb 2.7ast
Cousins in losss: 21.8pts (.472 .735) 12.2reb 3.3ast
* of course that's just in games he plays. 2-9 without him available.

Gay in wins: 23.5pts (.502 .444 .871) 5.5reb 3.4ast
Gay in losss: 18.9pts (.409 .321 .838) 6.7reb 4.8ast
-- suggesting we do better with him as a scorer than all around guy, but distorted by changed role with Cuz out

Collison in wins: 18.4pts (.511 .364 .840) 3.0reb 6.5ast
Collison in losss: 15.1pts (.439 .414 .747) 3.1reb 5.6ast
-- and 1-2 with him out

McLemore in wins: 10.6pts (.504 .373 .850) 4.0reb 1.3ast
McLemore in losss: 12.8pts (.447 .377 .818) 2.6reb 1.7ast
-- less Ben = more?

Thompson in wins: 4.4pts (.342 .581) 6.5reb 0.9ast
Thompson in losss: 6.1pts (.531 .654) 6.2reb 1.0ast
-- just how irrelevant JT's offense is can be seen by his shooting% in wins. Does not matter.

Landry in wins: 8.3pts (.526 .917) 4.2reb 0.6ast
Landry in losss: 7.9pts (.528 .795) 4.3reb 0.4ast
-- an almost completely neutral cipher

Williams in wins: 4.9pts (.403 .368 .696) 2.1reb 0.6ast
Williams in losss: 7.8pts (.471 .300 .583) 2.5reb 0.2ast
-- 3.0's poster child has been a disaster. When we play his way, we lose. But I guess he can say we're 1-4 in games he doesn't play.
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Hi Brick.

Great post, but looking at your data, there's one basic flaw thaf bothers me -

It seems to me that all the numbers are PER GAME, not PER MINUTE or PER 36MIN.

This may be OK for those who play steady, regular minutes per game, like DMC or Rudy, but for Williams, JT or Casspi (even Collison) - this may really create a distortion...
 
Ron said:
Hi Brick.

Great post, but looking at your data, there's one basic flaw thaf bothers me -

It seems to me that all the numbers are PER GAME, not PER MINUTE or PER 36MIN.

This may be OK for those who play steady, regular minutes per game, like DMC or Rudy, but for Williams, JT or Casspi (even Collison) - this may really create a distortion...
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If you're referring to the stats on the individuals, I actually started putting the minutes in, then took them out because first they were rarely more than a couple of minutes apart on W/L, so it seemed to be muddling the statlines a bit for little gain, and second I thought there was a pretty decent argument that what was important in an overall setting was total contribution. In other words, if we lose because Cuz in unproductive in lots of minutes, or lose because he didn't get lots of minutes, either way it could be argued we lose because he didn't put up his normal numbers. Still, if there had been big 10 minute gaps or some such, I would have added them. But I don't think there was anybody more than 2-3 minutes apart.

Just for a couple of examples:

Cuz W/L mins: 32.3/33.7
Gay W/L mins: 36.0/36.5
Ben W/L mins: 32.1/33.6

etc.
 
Swaze said:
Agreed with all of the latter part of your post. I do however think that often times people look for one thing in a post that they dislike and then they frame an entire argument around that single thing. Something a lawyer would do quite well.

PDA and Vivek have definitely managed to once again re-unite the fan base much like the Maloofs did when they kept trying to move the team.

Of the last few years there is no question in my mind though that there are a couple posters here who have essentially a crew that waits for them to come up with an opinion and then the crew comes running with all of the support posts. Case in point last Spring/Summer with I.T. Most of the fan base was very positive with Thomas but once the powers-at-be determined he was on their dislike list this forum became the Anti Isaiah Thomas. The vast majority of the Kings fan base liked Isaiah but you would not know it by coming here. It practically became a hate forum for him last spring into Summer. By the way I was for the Kings letting Thomas go and getting Collison instead I just found the amount of hate and insults towards on him on this forum to be odd. Forum used to have a policy against trashing players and yet mysteriously that went by the wayside for Thomas.

Year before it was the same thing in the opposite direction with Tyreke. Sample people every time all saying the same thing and trying to bully people who disagree. If you said anything bad about Tyreke you were called a troll and threatened to be banned. I know because it happened to me when I said Tyreke was a dime-a-dozen type player.......as if that's crossing the line and yet calling people gerbil, midget, or pizza-boy is somehow classier.
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MOST of the posters here did not hate Isaiah Thomas. What they did not like was him as the starting PG. And, along with that, they did not care for some of his tweets (that he would make and then delete) and they did not like his selfish play.

The policy against trashing players you talk about is misleading. We have had classic player fan wars (reference Peja v. Webber, for instance). Anyone who was here during the days of Kenny Thomas would also know that wide discontent about him was prevalent. What hasn't been allowed is blatant player bashing, which is why a few people who did it against Chris Webber were finally banned after about a gazillion warnings. And it's why the moderators step in when they believe things have gone too far. Moderating a forum like this is a tough job. We do the best we can to keep KF as it has always been without becoming the style police. It's too often a thankless task but one all we mods do to the best of our abilities.

Criticism and honest debate have never been against policy.
 
KingsFanGER said:
Sounds belittling towards our Fo to me. I know it's pretty popular to think that these guys just don't know what they are doing and don't know much about basketball and that some of the more vocal users around here would do a better job as a Gm, but that's something that takes criticism a bit too far for me.
I don't expect an NBA franchise to model their playstyle after the opinions heard during a fan forum.
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And I'm pretty certain the Kings front office is not going to change one iota of what they do solely because of a fan forum.

Criticizing front offices and general managers and coaches and players is part and parcel of being a fan. some people are very vocal, others don't ever criticize. It's just like real life. Other fans boards are guilty of the same thing. And you know what? It's all part of being able to speak your mind (within certain board restrictions).
 
Bricklayer said:
If you're referring to the stats on the individuals, I actually started putting the minutes in, then took them out because first they were rarely more than a couple of minutes apart on W/L, so it seemed to be muddling the statlines a bit for little gain, and second I thought there was a pretty decent argument that what was important in an overall setting was total contribution. In other words, if we lose because Cuz in unproductive in lots of minutes, or lose because he didn't get lots of minutes, either way it could be argued we lose because he didn't put up his normal numbers. Still, if there had been big 10 minute gaps or some such, I would have added them. But I don't think there was anybody more than 2-3 minutes apart.

Just for a couple of examples:

Cuz W/L mins: 32.3/33.7
Gay W/L mins: 36.0/36.5
Ben W/L mins: 32.1/33.6

etc.
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And what about Williams?

In your stats per game:
In wins: 4.9pts 2.1reb 0.6ast
In losss: 7.8pts 2.5reb 0.2ast

But Williams played more in losses,
and per 36min his numbers become much more balanced:
In wins: 12.3pts 5.4reb 1.5ast
In losses: 16.4pts 5.2reb 0.4ast
 
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macadocious said:
It's like you guys haven't both been posting here for a decade and a half....
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1024.thxgvng.grumpy.mh.111212.jpg
 
ALOT of teams will be dumping salary to make a run at cousins guaranteed. We'll know how shortsighted this front office is in a years time.
 
Mr. S£im Citrus said:
You know what else would be worse? Cousins in a Wizards jersey. And that's something that might still happen.
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Big Cuz 15 said:
ALOT of teams will be dumping salary to make a run at cousins guaranteed. We'll know how shortsighted this front office is in a years time.
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Good grief, you guys. You really have to go there right now? Like there's not enough depressing crap to wade through every single freaking day?

This is getting ridiculous. It seems Kings fans have to try at every opportunity to find the Debbie Downer side to everything. Cousins is ours right now. Embrace it and enjoy it. Cheer him on AS A KING instead of already fitting him for a uniform on another team. Some of you could suck all the joy out of an ice cream sundae.
 
Pace is not irrelevant. Pace is something that doesn't show up in stat sheets, not by any way shape or form. You just can't sit there and dissect everything as if it were a statistic, it doesn't work that way. This is why I disagree with our FO in terms of the weight they put into analytics. Pace has a lot to do with controlling the tempo of the game. The team that is able to control the pace as a way to magnify their strengths throughout the game has a much better chance of winning.
 
VF21 said:
Good grief, you guys. You really have to go there right now? Like there's not enough depressing crap to wade through every single freaking day?

This is getting ridiculous. It seems Kings fans have to try at every opportunity to find the Debbie Downer side to everything. Cousins is ours right now. Embrace it and enjoy it. Cheer him on AS A KING instead of already fitting him for a uniform on another team. Some of you could suck all the joy out of an ice cream sundae.
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Hey, if you want to be mad at somebody, be mad at HWB; he knew what he was going to happen when he posted that picture.
 
HereWeBoogie said:
No, not fair enough at all! I posted that picture to remind us that the silver lining of us getting upset over this teams current disfunction, is that it's still OUR team and not somebody elses
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If you hadn't posted that picture (which had little to do with the direction of the discussion), the inevitable comment about DMC going elsewhere probably wouldn't have occurred. I'll just be mad at all of you. ;)
 
VF21 said:
If you want to edit my post to correct what you feel is a poor choice of words, please feel free to do so. I don't have the energy to argue about it any further. I have to rest up for the game.
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Huh. I wouldn't have occurred to me to describe it as a poor choice of words until just now; I was just taking the "mickey" out of your choice to be diplomatic.
 
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