Pace is Irrelevant, So What DOES Make Us Win?

Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
So, I figured it was about time for some actual "data points", not empty spin from members of the rodent family (its actually an order, not a family btw). So here we go, a fairly comprehensive rundown of the stats which do correlate with Kings wins/losses, and the stats that don't:

Part I -- What Does NOT Matter

1) Pace. Pace? PACE.
Kings Pace in 16 wins: 93.74
Kings Pace in 21 losses: 93.76

2) Assists. Do NOT Matter.
Kings Assists in 16 wins: 19.4
Kings Assists in 21 losses: 20.0

3) Three Point Shooting. Does NOT matter.
Kings Three Points Makes/Takes in 16 wins: 4.9/14.3
Kings Three Points Makes/Takes in 21 losses: 5.7/16.5

And on that latter the gap is big enough you could almost argue for a NEGATIVE correlation. I.e. the more threes we shoot, the more we lose.

You will of course immediately notice that those categories just happen to be presumed fetishes for NBA 3.0. The irony that the neophytes would focus on exactly the areas that have the least to do with us winning is thick.


Part II -- What DOES Matter

1) Free Throws
Kings Free Throw Makes/Takes in 16 wins: 26.8/33.0
Kings Free Throw Makes/Takes in 21 losses: 20.9/28.1

2) Turnovers
Kings Turnovers in 16 wins: 13.9
Kings Turnovers in 21 losses: 16.7

3) Defense, in ALL its particulars
Kings Defensive Stats in 16 wins: OppFG: .412, Opp3pt%: .294, Steals: 7.1, Blocks: 4.6
Kings Defensive Stats in 21 losses: OppFG: .476, Opp3pt%: .357, Steals: 6.0, Blocks: 3.6

Rebounding also comes in at a weaker correlation, +5.3 in wins, +4.1 in losses.

So to sum up: Kings play tough and physical? Kings win. Kings push the pace, make pretty passes, shoot lots of threes for casual fans? Irrelevant. Maybe even damaging if it leads to turnovers.


Part III -- Individual Players

Cousins in wins: 25.8pts (.502 .850) 12.4reb 2.7ast
Cousins in losss: 21.8pts (.472 .735) 12.2reb 3.3ast
* of course that's just in games he plays. 2-9 without him available.

Gay in wins: 23.5pts (.502 .444 .871) 5.5reb 3.4ast
Gay in losss: 18.9pts (.409 .321 .838) 6.7reb 4.8ast
-- suggesting we do better with him as a scorer than all around guy, but distorted by changed role with Cuz out

Collison in wins: 18.4pts (.511 .364 .840) 3.0reb 6.5ast
Collison in losss: 15.1pts (.439 .414 .747) 3.1reb 5.6ast
-- and 1-2 with him out

McLemore in wins: 10.6pts (.504 .373 .850) 4.0reb 1.3ast
McLemore in losss: 12.8pts (.447 .377 .818) 2.6reb 1.7ast
-- less Ben = more?

Thompson in wins: 4.4pts (.342 .581) 6.5reb 0.9ast
Thompson in losss: 6.1pts (.531 .654) 6.2reb 1.0ast
-- just how irrelevant JT's offense is can be seen by his shooting% in wins. Does not matter.

Landry in wins: 8.3pts (.526 .917) 4.2reb 0.6ast
Landry in losss: 7.9pts (.528 .795) 4.3reb 0.4ast
-- an almost completely neutral cipher

Williams in wins: 4.9pts (.403 .368 .696) 2.1reb 0.6ast
Williams in losss: 7.8pts (.471 .300 .583) 2.5reb 0.2ast
-- 3.0's poster child has been a disaster. When we play his way, we lose. But I guess he can say we're 1-4 in games he doesn't play.
 
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Just reinforces what a lot of us have been saying - screw "style" and "pace" - just play to the strength of your roster (half court with the Boogie Monster smashing opponents inside) and get a quick transition basket if you can. Cut down the turnovers and get them in foul trouble (free throws). Sounds an awful lot like what Malone had working before he was canned......
 
I don't think it's an either/or thing. Defense, getting to the line, avoiding turnovers etc. help you win games and are obviously going to be high in wins regardless of pace.

Actually the fact that the pace win % are practically even says a lot about running more. Malone had a full training camp to implement his slower system and a healthy full strength boogie to bump up the slow pace winning percentage and the win % is only slightly ahead even with the high pace system being new/ disjointed and boogie being out/recovering.
 
Pace said:
I don't think it's an either/or thing. Defense, getting to the line, avoiding turnovers etc. help you win games and are obviously going to be high in wins regardless of pace.

Actually the fact that the pace win % are practically even says a lot about running more. Malone had a full training camp to implement his slower system and a healthy full strength boogie to bump up the slow pace winning percentage and the win % is only slightly ahead even with the high pace system being new/ disjointed and boogie being out/recovering.
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Interesting. Not surprised by most of it. If I were asked what do we do now in face of this I'd say the same thing - play hard and with spirit, emphasis defense, reduce turnovers and don't lose spirit under duress. We'll win 'em all.
 
Consistency on the defensive end is our main issue.

I am loving the change in pace throughout the game and I think our set rotations are really starting to help. Ty Corbin has our guys' knowing what our rotations are and I believe that is having a positive effect.
 
Warhawk said:
Just reinforces what a lot of us have been saying - screw "style" and "pace" - just play to the strength of your roster (half court with the Boogie Monster smashing opponents inside) and get a quick transition basket if you can. Cut down the turnovers and get them in foul trouble (free throws). Sounds an awful lot like what Malone had working before he was canned......
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Yes, and I really can't believe we're wasting so much time talking about something as worthless as "pace".

Can't believe what this FO has done, to the point most of the fan base is now debating a part of basketball which is pretty much insignificant. It's hardly the foundation of any successful blueprint. We're not talking defense, rebounding, getting to the FT line, running more movement off Rudy/Cuz in the post, adding defenders and 3pt shooters, strengthening our bench, adding size up front, you know, stuff that really impacts wins/losses, but we're instead talking "pace".

SMH.

That's what losing franchises do though, they attempt to distract from the real issues.
 
The problem with this analysis is that NBA 3.0 isn't about winning or losing.

It's about style. Sounds like I'm being sarcastic, but that's really it to me. Sure, winning would be nice, but style, that's where it's at. That's what they think will get the kids in Mumbai watching the NBA.

Cause if they'd done a through analysis like this, they'd surely see pushing the pace is irrelevant to what causes this team to win or lose.

I don't think these guys are genius, but they surely are in fact smart enough to do a basic analysis like this. Which just makes me think that 1) they have and 2) they do not care.
 
Pace said:
I don't think it's an either/or thing. Defense, getting to the line, avoiding turnovers etc. help you win games and are obviously going to be high in wins regardless of pace.

Actually the fact that the pace win % are practically even says a lot about running more. Malone had a full training camp to implement his slower system and a healthy full strength boogie to bump up the slow pace winning percentage and the win % is only slightly ahead even with the high pace system being new/ disjointed and boogie being out/recovering.
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Very good point.
 
Good analysis Brick!! It shows what our eyeballs have been seeing. I would like to add something, though. I would like to see the Kings shoot more 3 pt shots if they could make a much higher percentage of them. Getting lots of freethrows (and hitting a good percentage of them) is also critical as you pointed out - play hard and tough!! But good team defense is still the most important thing we have to consistently do.
 
There is one other factor and it can come into play for our next four tough games. The secret - send me out of town. Ooooh......... aaaah. I'm going to Dillon Beach for eight days. Expect this tohave an immediate positive impact. Beware DAL, MIA, LAC and PORT. You can rate me on this. If it works as I expect it to, you folks might want to consider sending me on other vacations. Or maybe Ranadive may want to underwrite some nice excursions for me and the family. Just a thought. Go Kongs!!!
 
pshn80 said:
There is one other factor and it can come into play for our next four tough games. The secret - send me out of town. Ooooh......... aaaah. I'm going to Dillon Beach for eight days. Expect this tohave an immediate positive impact. Beware DAL, MIA, LAC and PORT. You can rate me on this. If it works as I expect it to, you folks might want to consider sending me on other vacations. Or maybe Ranadive may want to underwrite some nice excursions for me and the family. Just a thought. Go Kongs!!!
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Careful pshn lest somebody come up with a more permanent solution. :p

You'd do better to market yourself as a GOOD luck charm. Might score some free candy that way. :)
 
Chubbs said:
The problem with this analysis is that NBA 3.0 isn't about winning or losing.

It's about style. Sounds like I'm being sarcastic, but that's really it to me. Sure, winning would be nice, but style, that's where it's at. That's what they think will get the kids in Mumbai watching the NBA.

Cause if they'd done a through analysis like this, they'd surely see pushing the pace is irrelevant to what causes this team to win or lose.

I don't think these guys are genius, but they surely are in fact smart enough to do a basic analysis like this. Which just makes me think that 1) they have and 2) they do not care.
Click to expand...

Sadly, I think this is the case. If NBA 3.0 is about thinking globally not locally, the concerns about pace and style make more sense. Of course the next question to ask is whether international fans will flock to an uptempo exciting style of basketball if it doesn't generate wins. Traditionally sports franchises tend to concern themselves with the winning part and the expanded fan-base follows as a byproduct of that success. The Kings of 1999 did get some attention for their flashy style early on, before the playoff success, but if the team hadn't gone on to win as much as they did that just would have been a vague footnote and long since forgotten. The team people still talk about is the one with the balanced offensive attack bolstered by an effective and disciplined defense which only came after swapping the most exciting PG in the league, Jason Williams, for the steady and predictable Mike Bibby.
 
I hope that everyone here realizes that analytics is based upon statistical models far, far more complex than the descriptive statistics just presented.

Also, I wish people would stop saying that the FO and NBA 3.0 does not care about winning or that they care about style more than wins. I do not think that they ever said it anymore than they said that they do not care about defense. Some things have been made-up and told over and over again and now people believe it to be true.

You can been skeptical without makings things-up.
 
kupman said:
I hope that everyone here realizes that analytics is based upon statistical models far, far more complex than the descriptive statistics just presented.

Also, I wish people would stop saying that the FO and NBA 3.0 does not care about winning or that they care about style more than wins. I do not think that they ever said it anymore than they said that they do not care about defense. Some things have been made-up and told over and over again and know people believe it to be true.

You can been skeptical without makings things-up.
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It's not made up.

When asked whether he said he'd fire Malone if the team were 16-9, he said yes. I believe in an interview with Grant? I can't recall exactly.

Vivek also made it clear they (Mullin and PDA) wanted to fire Malone early in the season, before demarcus got hurt, at the peak of success.

At the very least, firing Malone was not about wins and losses. If firing a successful and popular coach isn't about wins and losses, is anything?

Interpret that however you wish. I know my conclusion.

This has been spelled out ad naseum multiple times.

Here's an article describing how the move was about ideology. That ideology is NBA 3.0. Since it was about ideology over wins, it's not much of a leap to say NBA 3.0 isn't about winning either. What is it about? Style. Innovation. How? Wait and see I guess. The how (style) for this group is as important as the what (winning).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ek-ranadive-chris-mullin-sacramento/20447533/
 
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kupman said:
I hope that everyone here realizes that analytics is based upon statistical models far, far more complex than the descriptive statistics just presented.

Also, I wish people would stop saying that the FO and NBA 3.0 does not care about winning or that they care about style more than wins. I do not think that they ever said it anymore than they said that they do not care about defense. Some things have been made-up and told over and over again and now people believe it to be true.

You can been skeptical without makings things-up.
Click to expand...

I suspect people are jumping to conclusions because a winning coach, Malone, was fired.
 
kupman said:
Also, I wish people would stop saying that the FO and NBA 3.0 does not care about winning or that they care about style more than wins. I do not think that they ever said it anymore than they said that they do not care about defense. Some things have been made-up and told over and over again and now people believe it to be true.

You can been skeptical without makings things-up.
Click to expand...

From FoxSports

"It wasn't about wins and losses," D'Alessandro said Monday. "I don't really care what our record was. It's really about who we want to be, what we want our identity to be as a team."
 
Bricklayer said:
Williams in wins: 4.9pts (.403 .368 .696) 2.1reb 0.6ast
Williams in losss: 7.8pts (.471 .300 .583) 2.5reb 0.2ast
-- 3.0's poster child has been a disaster. When we play his way, we lose. But I guess he can say we're 1-4 in games he doesn't play.
Click to expand...
How interesting that stats can agree with the eye test. Williams is better off being like a Ben McLemore, but at the 3 and 4 spot -- a catch and shooter, can dunk, sometimes drives. Hopefully Williams can develop a better defensive game; he has the athleticism to do this more easily than others.
 
kupman said:
Malone was not a winning coash. He was 39-67 while here and 11-13 this season. He was a losing coach.
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My goodness, man, he started this year as a winning coach in this season accomplishing that against the most difficult schedule in the NBA. Didn't you notice? The decision to fire him according to Ailene Voisin was BEFORE Cuz got sick.
 
It's not just jumping to conclusions. Vivek and PDA were interviewed about the reason for the coaching change and the terms Pace, Style of Play, Running, Uptempo, and NBA 3.0 were thrown at us repeatedly as justification. Maybe not NBA 3.0 in particular, but that's become a shorthand term for this front office's overall basketball philosophy mainly because they seem to delight in using it as much as possible. It's by design a catch-all term that refers to everything anyway. If we take them at their word, the belief is that slow-paced and predictable half-court offense based around getting Cousins and Rudy the ball in isolation situations and asking them to create from there is not going to lead to wins. This is a problematic belief for many of us because we watched exactly that style creating wins early in the season. Could there be another style that leads to wins? Of course there can. But it probably is worth noting (given the ongoing discussion in game threads and related topics) that pace doesn't seem to be as big of a factor for this team as certain front office personnel tell us it is. And if pace isn't the reason we're winning or losing, and defense is, tell us again why we fired the coach who was (finally) getting tangible, quantifiable results on the defensive end?
 
Warhawk said:
Just reinforces what a lot of us have been saying - screw "style" and "pace" - just play to the strength of your roster (half court with the Boogie Monster smashing opponents inside) and get a quick transition basket if you can. Cut down the turnovers and get them in foul trouble (free throws). Sounds an awful lot like what Malone had working before he was canned......
Click to expand...

YAY!!! Agree. Add to that Cousins comment of couple of days ago that when they "Play both ends, they become a really tough team to defeat".
 
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