Notes from KHTK's Kings Talk

What is the big deal???

I am college educated and I have read this quote about 6 times thinking I missed something. All it says to me is that in basketball that stats don't lie and quite often that is the case. If a team shoots 50% and the other team shoots 35% than pretty much the team that shoots 50% is going to win. If both Artest and Bibby shoot a high percentage then more than likely the Kings will win.


Is it that hard???

No. It's simple math. 10 made shots on 20 attempts = 50%.

Now, can't anyone tell me the context of the Muss quote?
 
Considering that there are a number of players who can totally change the course of a game without putting up any amazing numbers, yes, it is that hard.

To take one example from our own team: with the exception of a handful of games, Ron Artest's numbers aren't very impressive even when he's playing well overall, and absolutely killing the other team with D. Last year I was watching him dismantle offenses without mercy, but at the same time he was not doing me much good at all on my fantasy teams, because so much of it was not reflected in stats. Holding a 25PPG scorer to 7 points on 3-17 shooting looks like a total goose egg if there aren't any steals or blocks.

Some players can also kill a team (or single-handedly keep it alive) by how they are in the locker room. Look at Vlade's numbers his last year here: unremarkable. Look at the nose-dive the team started taking when he left: amazing.

Stats aren't unimportant, but they are miles from telling the whole story, and Muss should know that. They may not lie, but they can be extremely misleading.
 
What is the big deal???

I am college educated and I have read this quote about 6 times thinking I missed something. All it says to me is that in basketball that stats don't lie and quite often that is the case. If a team shoots 50% and the other team shoots 35% than pretty much the team that shoots 50% is going to win. If both Artest and Bibby shoot a high percentage then more than likely the Kings will win.


Is it that hard???

Team A shoots 50% - They take 20 shots, hit 10 and therefore score 20 points total.

Team B shoots 35% - They take 40 shots, hit 14 and therefore score 28 points.

See, it's not quite that simple, is it?
 
If a team shoots 50% and the other team shoots 35% than pretty much the team that shoots 50% is going to win. If both Artest and Bibby shoot a high percentage then more than likely the Kings will win.
This whole discussion has me a bit flabbergasted but I wanted to point out the "truth" in the hypothetical above. If Team A shoots 50 for 100 (or 50%) and Team B shoots 35 for 100 (or 35%) here are the statistical truths that can be determined:

Team A FG% - 50%
Team B FG% - 35%

Who is going to win is not a direct function of FG% and making the attempt to do so is an example of using a statistic incorrectly. That's why you hear things like "on paper, we won the game."

Unto themselves, statistics (in basketball particularly) do not lie as they are taken from actual events. Arguing that RPG, APG, FG% or any other "standard" stat (and most statistical data in general) is in any form untruthful is, well, wrong.

Now, should you base your opinions on anything by simply looking at the statistics? I'd think not; that'd just be dumb.

Test tomorrow.
 
I don't mean to burst the bubbles of the litigation we got going on here but....who cares? Come on now guys and gals, If artest or bibby or someone said something like this its dust in the wind, but the muscle says it and everyone has a huff. I've said stats don't lie before. When i said it, in the context it was in, it was correct. Even then, if someone wanted to argue about the statement itself (Stats don't lie) rather then the context the stats represented i would walk away because it would be a waste of time.

What context was it used in? I guess im just confused about what the uproar is about.
 
Why be upset? Because it's just one point in a growing list in some people's minds of things that Musselman just DOESN'T get.

And, all things considered, wouldn't you rather have people arguing about whether statistics matter than some of the other stuff that's gone on?

;)
 
Why be upset? Because it's just one point in a growing list in some people's minds of things that Musselman just DOESN'T get.

And, all things considered, wouldn't you rather have people arguing about whether statistics matter than some of the other stuff that's gone on?

;)

Ha- good point.

I've seen more interesting things debated in TDOS....:eek:...hence my questioning of the relevance of the arguement.
 
If you don't give playing time based on "stats," then you base it on "intuition," or "gut instinct." Myself, I'd rather see decisions made on historic productivity.

Sports players have their productivity laid out for all to see more than most professions. It's easy to see if someone's shooting well, boarding well, or turning it over.

One big problem with basketball stats is that they are incomplete. There is no ready stat for "defense." Sure, there's steals and defensive boards, but what is lacking is a measure of how much someone can "shut his player down." For instance, if Artest holds Kobe to 11 points tonight, there is no "stat" that shows up for Ron Ron.
 
If you don't give playing time based on "stats," then you base it on "intuition," or "gut instinct." Myself, I'd rather see decisions made on historic productivity.

Sports players have their productivity laid out for all to see more than most professions. It's easy to see if someone's shooting well, boarding well, or turning it over.

One big problem with basketball stats is that they are incomplete. There is no ready stat for "defense." Sure, there's steals and defensive boards, but what is lacking is a measure of how much someone can "shut his player down." For instance, if Artest holds Kobe to 11 points tonight, there is no "stat" that shows up for Ron Ron.

Stats are merely numbers. They don't TELL you anything. Someone has to interpret them and give them relevance. And, since that's the case, the interpretation is often suspect.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Eric Musselman will live and die by his multitude of books, charts, graphs, spreadsheets, etc. It may be early, but I'm beginning to doubt if he has the one ingredient the best NBA coaches have - the ability to read between the lines and find the perfect blend of player strengths, weaknesses, personalities, etc. that enable them to take their team OFF the printed page and onto the court with the most success.
 
It's also true that you can make stats show anything you want (or at least that's what I was told by a statistician) And they never ever tell the whole story. There are things that simply don't show up in box scores. Effective screens, boxing out, hustle, energy, willingness to dive to the floor.


These are the reaons why Kenny Smith doesn't look at stats at all.
 
Fans always scapegoat the coaches anyway, I think its just a badly phrased quote. This team is actually showing some signs lately, IMO, but its a work in progress. I also sort of wonder if there's a lot of urgency from on high to win games, or to develop the coughdraftpickcough rookies? Things like running a play to see if QDoob can hit a 3 on the big screen make me wonder. Kid had a good look though.

There are a lot of factors affecting this team that are out of Muss' control. He's not really to blame for our identity crisis or injuries or lack of size or chemistry, has to try and work through it. It's just silly to blame him when so far this year it's just been a rollercoaster ride whether anybody is even going to show up for the game. He is playing Corliss at center pretty much out of necessity people, not because his young look makes him a worse coach than you. He's been around basketball all his life but its tough to draw up a play that makes your small guy outrebound a big guy.

This team is starting to click a little bit on offense, not exactly on all cylinders but there's certainly a bit more teamwork the last few games. Bibby starting to make shots is a key, not the numbers but the way he's getting those plays to get him the space he needs. On defense, well, you want to get crushed zone or man to man...we just don't have the right players for it. Maybe soon though. I think this team needs a trade to sort out the roles more than a new coach. Oh and a top ten draft pick. Greg Oden out there would make Muss look like a genius. Superstars do that for coaches.
 
I also sort of wonder if there's a lot of urgency from on high to win games, or to develop the coughdraftpickcough rookies? Things like running a play to see if QDoob can hit a 3 on the big screen make me wonder.

It's a sad day for the Kings when the #1 argument in favour of the coaching is that it was meant to suck.
 
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Natural reaction for some to blame Muss. Still nobody addressed the fact we had similar troubles last year. Nobody addressed the prediction thread were at least this year, the majority predictued us to be what we are, average at best. Expectations again set to high for this group of players.

How one figures we should be a decent team with small PF's that are both IMO horrible. I have no idea. We are just not going to win many games with this group. Our best hope is an 8 spot and thats IMO what we don't need.

Also not going to win many games when you are out rebounded by large margins or miss 15 Free Throws in the game last night.

Now with that said, am I happy with all Muss's decisions? No way, and almost the same thing I could say about RA last year. However that was on the total opposite of the spectrum.

Substitutions...with RA he did the same thing night in, night out. He could have the second string in and getting us in the game, no matter what about 4-7 min in that 2nd QTR the starters would be back in.. With Muss, its the exact opposite, he rides the hot hand and I do like that. He also gives the Douby's of the world a chance. I definately like that, but I also realize your rookies are not going to do that every night.

Still need some major changes here. Going to hurt for a while and I assume Muss will at least get about 3 years here. We are losing, someone is to blame, myself I just blame this group of players. I will add that I don't understand some of the coaching questions but I am in my chair not on the court.
 
Muss has 2 years, at the outside. Actually about a year and a half now. Only thing that can save him is either a major move by Geoff to improve, or an admitted, stated, rebuilding effort so he'll have an excuse to lose. But deluded owners refusing to rebuild, setting him up as the answer to all of Rick's "failings", and demanding a contender are all working against him. He does have the advanatge of the owners pulling back from the franchise with the arena issue and whatnot, but they aren't going to tolerate "failure" while they still think we should magically succeed. They, like the fanbase, have been realy spoiled over the last 8 years, and Muss is just the rebound guy. Tough position to be in, even if you know what you're doing. Now when you repeatedly and obviously screw up and lasted only 2 years on your last job...that water around his feet is already nice and warm and comfy.
 
Muss has 2 years, at the outside. Actually about a year and a half now. Only thing that can save him is either a major move by Geoff to improve, or an admitted, stated, rebuilding effort so he'll have an excuse to lose. But deluded owners refusing to rebuild, setting him up as the answer to all of Rick's "failings", and demanding a contender are all working against him. He does have the advanatge of the owners pulling back from the franchise with the arena issue and whatnot, but they aren't going to tolerate "failure" while they still think we should magically succeed. They, like the fanbase, have been realy spoiled over the last 8 years, and Muss is just the rebound guy. Tough position to be in, even if you know what you're doing. Now when you repeatedly and obviously screw up and lasted only 2 years on your last job...that water around his feet is already nice and warm and comfy.

Definately agree with all of that... I am exactly thinking the same. Adding a little, we need the players and you said it. "But deluded owners refusing to rebuild"... Muss has no control over that. RA did not desrive to be fired, and IMO RA would be no better off this year. Give or take a win here and there.

I am a huge RA fan, don't mistake me for the Sar/Kt peeps here that continue to argue endless points. My main point is, our record is not because of the coach. We could bring back some of the greats from the grave, this is not a team that can compete. I am all for the full rebuild.
 
Muss has 2 years, at the outside. Actually about a year and a half now. Only thing that can save him is either a major move by Geoff to improve, or an admitted, stated, rebuilding effort so he'll have an excuse to lose. But deluded owners refusing to rebuild, setting him up as the answer to all of Rick's "failings", and demanding a contender are all working against him. He does have the advanatge of the owners pulling back from the franchise with the arena issue and whatnot, but they aren't going to tolerate "failure" while they still think we should magically succeed. They, like the fanbase, have been realy spoiled over the last 8 years, and Muss is just the rebound guy. Tough position to be in, even if you know what you're doing. Now when you repeatedly and obviously screw up and lasted only 2 years on your last job...that water around his feet is already nice and warm and comfy.


You think that Muss possibly gets canned before season's end?
 
Notes from KHTK Kings Talk

To BigWaxer: Where did you hear/see/read - "but deluded owners refusing to build." The only time I heard this addressed was when Musselman was introduced to Sacramento and the Maloofs said that they were ready to do and to provide what it takes to get a championship team in Sacramento. Annie.
 
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