NFL SuperBowl LIV - 2/2/2020

[kingdivac]

You'd think the Niners offense was some kind of hapless grind-it-out operation. They scored more points than the Chiefs this season, after all. They led the league in passes over 15 yards.

The Niners led the league in Yards After Catch and the Chiefs D is one of the worst at allowing YAC. Look for Kittle and Deebo to leave tacklers laying and drag some fools down the field.

Yeah, thanks in large part to their cream-puff 1st half schedule. The defense had trouble with Wilson and Murray, and will so again for Mahomes - its likely.

Take the Seattle games this season and then add say about+9 pts handicap for the Chiefs - the 49ers will likely have to play that well to win (overcome).... ie score in the high 30s at least - not completely improbable. What does that mean? - they will have to win the turnover battle by probably +2......Garrapolo probably cannot afford to throw 1 interception. In one of the best scenarios for this game, the 49ers offense plays a clean game and comes close to duplicating their Saints performance on offense and somehow eeks out the win by a FG or TD. Recall in the Saints game though the 49ers were getting eaten alive by Jared Cook until out of the game with a concussion in the 2nd Q. Penalties on defense are also a mine-field for the 49ers. Start with the assumption that with an elite QB and elite receiving core, the 49ers defense at a big disadvantage It's almost like watching the old 49ers teams who are now the Chiefs.

 

[kb02]

The Chiefs are getting more than "a few" big plays - try at least 6 long gainers maybe 8 to 10; - if you mean TD long passes - maybe 1 to 3. The Titans were playing pretty good defense coming into the game and got buzz-sawed. I'm pretty sure you'll see the 49ers get a stop or 2, and then all of the sudden, they give up 10 or 14 pt flurry - this may happen once or twice in the game - maybe more How will the offense respond? Will this be the Saints part 2 or a flop Falcons effort?

You could be right about the run-game, and the 49ers will need you to be. Garrappolo is levels lower than Mahomes - he's pretty close to Tannehill actually - slow of foot and turnover-prone under pressure.. You're talking about a little better than average vs the best QB in the NFL and reigning MVP. Garrapolo isn't a top 10 QB this year.

You’re seriously underrating Garappolo. He’ll prove it Sunday.

The Niners are going to run a cover 3. They have three lbs who can cover n the best slot CB in the game. Their defense is designed to stop big plays n the run. They’ve had problems with scrambling qbs, but have adjusted by having their LBs maintain their lanes in scramble situations rather than go all out on the QB (which was an issue earlier, bcz qbs were dumping the ball over lbs to TEs n receivers). Translation, the chiefs will get some big plays, but the number will be lower than you think.

The biggest mismatch is the Niners against the KC defense. They’re going to score at least 31 on KC,

Barring turnovers from SF, SF will win.

 

[kingdivac]

You’re seriously underrating Garappolo. He’ll prove it Sunday.

The Niners are going to run a cover 3. They have three lbs who can cover n the best slot CB in the game. Their defense is designed to stop big plays n the run. They’ve had problems with scrambling qbs, but have adjusted by having their LBs maintain their lanes in scramble situations rather than go all out on the QB (which was an issue earlier, bcz qbs were dumping the ball over lbs to TEs n receivers). Translation, the chiefs will get some big plays, but the number will be lower than it you think.

The biggest mismatch is the Niners against the KC defense. They’re going to score at least 31 on KC,

Barring turnovers from SF, SF will win.

Garappolo is a decent QB, but we'll see if he proves it. If he has a great game, I'll be the first to relinquish doubt. This is the biggest game of his career so far. He doesn't scramble well, and if the Chiefs mount a decent pass rush like they did vs Tannehill, its going to be difficult for him. When he gets pressure, he throws picks and badly takes sacks too.

I think you're in for a rude awakening if you think thei 49ers linebackers will be able to cover the Chiefs receivers consistently or for big plays.
I do think the 49ers defense will win some drives, but the Chiefs offense will score in a blitzkrieg, and they will be happy to incrementally move the ball and score just as well. Chiefs Receivers are best when coming back to the QB - play after play the Titans could not deal with the pattern break off.......I dont see much difference for the 49ers. Compared to the Titans game, maybe the 49ers get better pressure up front, but they need a total pocket collapse - ie domination on the defensive line - think Packers regular season game to really gain an advantage - and I'm not sure that'll happen enough, Mahomes is just too crafty for that - he buys the extra second and is lethal to his receiver essentially playing playground ball more or less on broken plays making secondaries look like college teams. Lest forget, the Chiefs have speed mismatches on offense all over the field.

You're right in that the 49ers offense/Chiefs defense matchup is more intriguing and more of a wild card - unknown - though I'm not sure about a bigger mismatch. I think 4 9ers are gonna need to score high 30s......31 wont do it.......and I'm unsure if they can break into the high 30s though they might. You are right in that turnovers will ruin the 49ers chances.....the Chiefs have the advantage here as well as they've shown better resiliency in these playoffs when behind. Its a difficult road - the Chiefs have the best player on the field, and will the 49ers offense be able to keep up. Close, but dont think so......now if you ask me who I WANT to win, yes the 49ers, I will be cheering the pass rush and the run game; its a tall order.

 

[kb02]

Garappolo is a decent QB, but we'll see if he proves it. If he has a great game, I'll be the first to relinquish doubt. This is the biggest game of his career so far. He doesn't scramble well, and if the Chiefs mount a decent pass rush like they did vs Tannehill, its going to be difficult for him. When he gets pressure, he throws picks and badly takes sacks too.

I think you're in for a rude awakening if you think thei 49ers linebackers will be able to cover the Chiefs receivers consistently or for big plays.
I do think the 49ers defense will win some drives, but the Chiefs offense will score in a blitzkrieg, and they will be happy to incrementally move the ball and score just as well. Chiefs Receivers are best when coming back to the QB - play after play the Titans could not deal with the pattern break off.......I dont see much difference for the 49ers. Compared to the Titans game, maybe the 49ers get better pressure up front, but they need a total pocket collapse - ie domination on the defensive line - think Packers regular season game to really gain an advantage - and I'm not sure that'll happen enough, Mahomes is just too crafty for that - he buys the extra second and is lethal to his receiver essentially playing playground ball more or less on broken plays making secondaries look like college teams. Lest forget, the Chiefs have speed mismatches on offense all over the field.

You're right in that the 49ers offense/Chiefs defense matchup is more intriguing and more of a wild card - unknown - though I'm not sure about a bigger mismatch. I think 4 9ers are gonna need to score high 30s......31 wont do it.......and I'm unsure if they can break into the high 30s though they might. You are right in that turnovers will ruin the 49ers chances.....the Chiefs have the advantage here as well as they've shown better resiliency in these playoffs when behind. Its a difficult road - the Chiefs have the best player on the field, and will the 49ers offense be able to keep up. Close, but dont think so......now if you ask me who I WANT to win, yes the 49ers, I will be cheering the pass rush and the run game; its a tall order.

#2 Running Game vs. #29 Rush Defense. It is, by far, the biggest mismatch. I watched at least 10 Chiefs games this year. Start to finish, because Mahomes and his RBs were on my fantasy team. That defense is vastly overrated. They punted Dee Ford and traded for Frank Clark, because they believed Clark was better against the run (he is). However, outside of Clark and Jones, that front 7 is garbage. Just how bad? The remaining players would have a hard time making the second string on the Niners defense. Deebo and Kittle are going to feast on crossing routes against KC LBs. They're slow. Like the slowest in the league slow. RAC will be huge.

Side note, I also had Garrapolo, who I started the last 6 games this year over Mahomes.


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...iv-preview-know-49ers-chiefs-predictions-more
"The 49ers beat up the Packers for four quarters with virtually no defensive reply, overwhelming a defense that ranked 23rd in the league in rushing DVOA for 285 yards on 42 carries. On Sunday, Shanahan and his offense will face a Chiefs team that finished the season 29th in rush defense DVOA. Kansas City just did an effective job of slowing down Derrick Henry to make it to the Super Bowl, but there are reasons to worry whether it will be as effective on Sunday.
If you're a baseball fan, you've heard the adage about how great teams need to be stout up the middle. I think Shanahan's game plan on Sunday will be to try to exploit the middle of the Kansas City defense at all three levels. Let's start in the trenches and work our way into the secondary, beginning with one of the many players whose health could help swing this game."

"...In evaluating these two teams, though, there's one significant weakness that stands out: the Chiefs' run defense. Against most teams, the Chiefs are simply too devastating on offense for their 29th-ranked run defense to matter. The 49ers have feasted on those terrible run defenses in 2019, scoring 51 points on the 32nd-ranked Panthers, 31 points on the 30th-ranked Browns and 41 points on the 28th-ranked Bengals. Furthermore, if you were trying to build a defense for Shanahan to exploit in the passing game, you'd want to build one that was overmatched at linebacker and free safety."

 

[VF21]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1222851455226347524

I'm sure it's just coincidence. I mean, they wouldn't single out 9er players. Maybe they're just doing everybody in Miami?

 

[VF21]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1222852431484203012

 

[kingdivac]

#2 Running Game vs. #29 Rush Defense. It is, by far, the biggest mismatch. I watched at least 10 Chiefs games this year. Start to finish, because Mahomes and his RBs were on my fantasy team. That defense is vastly overrated. They punted Dee Ford and traded for Frank Clark, because they believed Clark was better against the run (he is). However, outside of Clark and Jones, that front 7 is garbage. Just how bad? The remaining players would have a hard time making the second string on the Niners defense. Deebo and Kittle are going to feast on crossing routes against KC LBs. They're slow. Like the slowest in the league slow. RAC will be huge.

Side note, I also had Garrapolo, who I started the last 6 games this year over Mahomes.


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...iv-preview-know-49ers-chiefs-predictions-more
"The 49ers beat up the Packers for four quarters with virtually no defensive reply, overwhelming a defense that ranked 23rd in the league in rushing DVOA for 285 yards on 42 carries. On Sunday, Shanahan and his offense will face a Chiefs team that finished the season 29th in rush defense DVOA. Kansas City just did an effective job of slowing down Derrick Henry to make it to the Super Bowl, but there are reasons to worry whether it will be as effective on Sunday.
If you're a baseball fan, you've heard the adage about how great teams need to be stout up the middle. I think Shanahan's game plan on Sunday will be to try to exploit the middle of the Kansas City defense at all three levels. Let's start in the trenches and work our way into the secondary, beginning with one of the many players whose health could help swing this game."

"...In evaluating these two teams, though, there's one significant weakness that stands out: the Chiefs' run defense. Against most teams, the Chiefs are simply too devastating on offense for their 29th-ranked run defense to matter. The 49ers have feasted on those terrible run defenses in 2019, scoring 51 points on the 32nd-ranked Panthers, 31 points on the 30th-ranked Browns and 41 points on the 28th-ranked Bengals. Furthermore, if you were trying to build a defense for Shanahan to exploit in the passing game, you'd want to build one that was overmatched at linebacker and free safety."

Its not about the run game, its about total scoring. The Chiefs are not shy about what they're going to do on defense. - stop the run, and stop the run - Clark admitted as much. And they dont even have to actually - more on that at the end. They are likely loading the line of scrimmage - even supposedly a poor run defense like the Chiefs that stymied Henry last week will have advantages against the run if they sell out on it often. Yes the 49ers will at some point need to pass - either because they've been blitzed score-wise, or because the Chiefs defense are having a good enough game against the run......I tend to think the former. It will be 7 and 8 man fronts often. Do you think the 49ers run the ball down 14 or 17 and counting? You'd think maybe not, but they might - they did before. Did you rewatch the regular season highlights, from 2018? the 49ers had a very good day running, but got in too deep a hole. That's a real scenario - it occured already with many of the same players on the field and coaches. In that game the 49ers had 178 yards rushing ---> that's right re-read that **178 yards rushing** and were beaten by half. The Chiefs could win this game in 1 quarter - pick your quarter - they could score 28 pts in a quarter. It so happens in the 2018 game, it was 21 points in the 2nd quarter.

 

[VF21]

Its not about the run game, its about total scoring. The Chiefs are not shy about what they're going to do on defense. - stop the run, and stop the run - Clark admitted as much. And they dont even have to actually - more on that at the end. They are likely loading the line of scrimmage - even supposedly a poor run defense like the Chiefs that stymied Henry last week will have advantages against the run if they sell out on it often. Yes the 49ers will at some point need to pass - either because they've been blitzed score-wise, or because the Chiefs defense are having a good enough game against the run......I tend to think the former. It will be 7 and 8 man fronts often. Do you think the 49ers run the ball down 14 or 17 and counting? You'd think maybe not, but they might - they did before. Did you rewatch the regular season highlights, from 2018? the 49ers had a very good day running, but got in too deep a hole. That's a real scenario - it occured already with many of the same players on the field and coaches. In that game the 49ers had 178 yards rushing ---> that's right re-read that **178 yards rushing** and were beaten by half. The Chiefs could win this game in 1 quarter - pick your quarter - they could score 28 pts in a quarter. It so happens in the 2018 game, it was 21 points in the 2nd quarter.

While I get your point, I think you're using the 2018 game way too much as a basis for your current argument. While past action can be an indicator of future action, this isn't happening in a vacuum. Both teams have access to all the videos, both teams can adjust their game plans accordingly. IMO when push comes to shove, I give the nod to the Niners because of Saleh.

 

[VF21]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1222926516243185666

 

[kingdivac]

While I get your point, I think you're using the 2018 game way too much as a basis for your current argument. While past action can be an indicator of future action, this isn't happening in a vacuum. Both teams have access to all the videos, both teams can adjust their game plans accordingly. IMO when push comes to shove, I give the nod to the Niners because of Saleh.

What better way to judge future matchup than by the most recent matchup?......unless the teams are drastically made-over which they are not, the same problems and tendencies carry-over. You know the phrase - humans are creatures of habit - you fall back on what's comfortable and often make the same mistakes - this of course is often true in sports as well. Will simplify and shorten it for brevity, While 49ers might win, I think the Chiefs offense is just too explosive for the 49ers defense. I could be wrong, and I hope I'm wrong. Its been a great year for the 49ers as a fan at the beginning the season, I had the expectation of a Wild-Card game as a season well done, so they've already surpassed my expectations hugely. You know something was afoot when they throttled the Rams early in the season.

 

[VF21]

What better way to judge future matchup than by the most recent matchup?......unless the teams are drastically made-over which they are not, the same problems and tendencies carry-over. You know the phrase - humans are creatures of habit - you fall back on what's comfortable and often make the same mistakes - this of course is often true in sports as well. Will simplify and shorten it for brevity, While 49ers might win, I think the Chiefs offense is just too explosive for the 49ers defense. I could be wrong, and I hope I'm wrong. Its been a great year for the 49ers as a fan at the beginning the season, I had the expectation of a Wild-Card game as a season well done, so they've already surpassed my expectations hugely. You know something was afoot when they throttled the Rams early in the season.

Fair enough. I still think Saleh with a full defensive arsenal at his disposal on 2/2/2020 will be the difference maker.

 

[NME]

What better way to judge future matchup than by the most recent matchup?......unless the teams are drastically made-over which they are not, the same problems and tendencies carry-over. You know the phrase - humans are creatures of habit - you fall back on what's comfortable and often make the same mistakes - this of course is often true in sports as well. Will simplify and shorten it for brevity, While 49ers might win, I think the Chiefs offense is just too explosive for the 49ers defense. I could be wrong, and I hope I'm wrong. Its been a great year for the 49ers as a fan at the beginning the season, I had the expectation of a Wild-Card game as a season well done, so they've already surpassed my expectations hugely. You know something was afoot when they throttled the Rams early in the season.

The Niners were bottom of the league in passing defense in 2018 and #2 in 2019, so something was darned well made over.

 

[kb02]

The Niners were bottom of the league in passing defense in 2018 and #2 in 2019, so something was darned well made over.

The 2018 team was the second worse team in the league, this year’s team is in the SB. Seems to be logical to use the 2018 game as an indication of what’s going to happen on Sunday.

 

[VF21]

Congratulations Nick!!!

https://twitter.com/statuses/1223065033636286464

 

[kingdivac]

The Niners were bottom of the league in passing defense in 2018 and #2 in 2019, so something was darned well made over.

Returning essentially the same offenses, while the 49ers revamped their defensive line - and I couldn't tell you the differential that'll make.....we're not talking about season over season- its one game, and so we compare it to one game with the same teams......yes, if they had played the Chiefs in this regular season it would've been an even better (more precise) set of clues. And dont forget the same coaching.

 

[kb02]

Returning essentially the same offenses, while the 49ers revamped their defensive line - and I couldn't tell you the differential that'll make.....we're not talking about season over season- its one game, and so we compare it to one game with the same teams......yes, if they had played the Chiefs in this regular season it would've been an even better (more precise) set of clues. And dont forget the same coaching.

Same offenses? Garapolo played like a half, Tevin Coleman was with Atlanta, Mostert was on the bench, Sanders was with Denver, Debo was in college, n McGlinchey was playing one of his first games in the league. So everything was the same, except for the QB, both starting RBs, n both starting WRs.

The chiefs, on the other hand, are without Kareem Hunt. Their best RB n the one RB, who could take it to the house. They’re going to miss that element in this game. On screens, especially.

 

[NME]

Returning essentially the same offenses, while the 49ers revamped their defensive line - and I couldn't tell you the differential that'll make.....we're not talking about season over season- its one game, and so we compare it to one game with the same teams......yes, if they had played the Chiefs in this regular season it would've been an even better (more precise) set of clues. And dont forget the same coaching.

You're massively underselling the defensive revamp. It isn't just adding Bosa and Ford to the D-Line, it's adding Alexander and Greenlaw at LB, Joe Woods diversifying pass coverage schemes, Williams playing lights out in the slot, Jimmie Ward healthy and his most effective as a Niner, and Mosley playing better than anyone who played across from Sherman last year. Other than that, the same.

 

[Tetsujin]

What better way to judge future matchup than by the most recent matchup?......unless the teams are drastically made-over which they are not, the same problems and tendencies carry-over. You know the phrase - humans are creatures of habit - you fall back on what's comfortable and often make the same mistakes - this of course is often true in sports as well. Will simplify and shorten it for brevity, While 49ers might win, I think the Chiefs offense is just too explosive for the 49ers defense. I could be wrong, and I hope I'm wrong. Its been a great year for the 49ers as a fan at the beginning the season, I had the expectation of a Wild-Card game as a season well done, so they've already surpassed my expectations hugely. You know something was afoot when they throttled the Rams early in the season.

But it's like watching a video of the Clippers from two seasons ago before they got Kawhi or Paul George and pointing to it as an example of why they can't win a championship.

 

[kingdivac]

Same offenses? Garapolo played like a half, Tevin Coleman was with Atlanta, Mostert was on the bench, Sanders was with Denver, Debo was in college, n McGlinchey was playing one of his first games in the league. So everything was the same, except for the QB, both starting RBs, n both starting WRs.

The chiefs, on the other hand, are without Kareem Hunt. Their best RB n the one RB, who could take it to the house. They’re going to miss that element in this game. On screens, especially.

.....alright,
Garrapolo played until the last 5 min trying to mount a comeback. Of course some player changes which is why I stated 'essentially'. A few plusses for the 49ers rcvs may help a bit.at receiving Hunt didn't factor in much - he had 2 goal-line TDs that were unimpressive.

Invite you to have look at the old match highlights - 178 yards on the ground and 251 passing yards and 3 TDs from Garrapolo by any mveeasure a very fine offensive game.....wasn't enough. Take a closer look at the 3:58 mark in the clip - this play is why the 49ers are in trouble. in a microcosm - and exactly why I think the Chiefs have the overall advantage. 49ers would do well to study and ponder their Russell Wilson (actually a better scrambler than Mahomes imo) in-game chase experiences, because that is the closest prep this year.

 

[kingdivac]

But it's like watching a video of the Clippers from two seasons ago before they got Kawhi or Paul George and pointing to it as an example of why they can't win a championship.

Basketball in not a good analogy with far less players and strategy. Coaching is more important in US football with play stoppages all over the place and 50+ players on the roster. And I dont think the 49ers cant win, I think they're at a disadvantage.. Of course they can win.

 

[kb02]

.....alright,
Garrapolo played until the last 5 min trying to mount a comeback. Of course some player changes which is why I stated 'essentially'. A few plusses for the 49ers rcvs may help a bit.at receiving Hunt didn't factor in much - he had 2 goal-line TDs that were unimpressive.

Invite you to have look at the old match highlights - 178 yards on the ground and 251 passing yards and 3 TDs from Garrapolo by any mveeasure a very fine offensive game.....wasn't enough. Take a closer look at the 3:58 mark in the clip - this play is why the 49ers are in trouble. in a microcosm - and exactly why I think the Chiefs have the overall advantage. 49ers would do well to study and ponder their Russell Wilson (actually a better scrambler than Mahomes imo) in-game chase experiences, because that is the closest prep this year.

Essentially?

Changes:

Garappolo, 2 starting RBs, 2 starting WRs.
2 New elite DL (Bosa, Ford), 3 LBs (Warner, Kwon, Dre), 1 new corner, 2 new safeties.

13/22 changes at the starting positions. 59%.

 

[Tetsujin]

Basketball in not a good analogy with far less players and strategy. Coaching is more important in US football with play stoppages all over the place and 50+ players on the roster. And I dont think the 49ers cant win, I think they're at a disadvantage.. Of course they can win.

But coaches adjust their schemes for the talent at hand. In the case of the Niners, they've shifted to a wide nine (completely unique in the context of the Pete Carrol Cover-3 scheme) to maximize the destructive skills of Dee Ford and Nick Bosa, who is as close to a game changer as any non-QB can be. That defense in 2018 is far removed from what the Niners are running now.

 

[kb02]

But coaches adjust their schemes for the talent at hand. In the case of the Niners, they've shifted to a wide nine (completely unique in the context of the Pete Carrol Cover-3 scheme) to maximize the destructive skills of Dee Ford and Nick Bosa, who is as close to a game changer as any non-QB can be. That defense in 2018 is far removed from what the Niners are running now.

8/11 changes at the starting positions. 72%.

 

[VF21]

8/11 changes at the starting positions. 72%.

But...2018.

 

[kingdivac]

Essentially?

Changes:

Garappolo, 2 starting RBs, 2 starting WRs.
2 New elite DL (Bosa, Ford), 3 LBs (Warner, Kwon, Dre), 1 new corner, 2 new safeties.

13/22 changes at the starting positions. 59%.

We were talking about offense... Essentially on offense as in we expect the player production to be similar on offense - and it will need to be or better. And Garrapolo certainly will not be a change - that's a false statement. He had a good mark on the game.

.

 

[VF21]

We were talking about offense .... Essentially on offense as in we expect the player production to be similar on offense - and it will need to be or better. And Garrapolo certainly will not be a change - that's a false statement. He had a good mark on the game.

.

LOL.

No, you were talking about offense and carefully ignoring anything that didn't fit your scenario.

 

[kingdivac]

But coaches adjust their schemes for the talent at hand. In the case of the Niners, they've shifted to a wide nine (completely unique in the context of the Pete Carrol Cover-3 scheme) to maximize the destructive skills of Dee Ford and Nick Bosa, who is as close to a game changer as any non-QB can be. That defense in 2018 is far removed from what the Niners are running now.

True but I'm not sure this is gonna matter enough - but who knows. The 49ers could go for 2 or 3 takeaways, and the offense has a similarly fine game which is what Barnwell is hinting at.

 

[Tetsujin]

True but I'm not sure this is gonna matter enough - but who knows. The 49ers could go for 2 or 3 takeaways, and the offense has a similarly fine game which is what Barnwell is hinting at.

I mean, Barnwell also thought the Packers were gonna blow the Niners out sooooo

 

[kingdivac]

I mean, Barnwell also thought the Packers were gonna blow the Niners out sooooo

I didn't read that one.

 

[Tetsujin]

I didn't read that one.

It was on Mina Kimes's ESPN Daily podcast.