NFL SuperBowl LIV - 2/2/2020
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Could prime Dan Marino scramble? 
By no means am I trying to demean his accomplishments because Mahomes is an effingn stud but his athleticism is different from quick twitch scramblers like Russ.
If you're curious to how this Super Bowl might play out, I suggest re-watching the 2018 regular season game highlights for clues. Many of the same players are on the field for both teams.......however the 49ers front pass defense is the most revamped of either team year over year from season to season - it should make a little difference at least. I'm interested to see if 2 games of Russell Wilson have prepared the 49ers for Mahomes scrambling and side-arming and how many sacks they achieve? None 1, 2...4 or 5?........also if the 49ers go for a modified base defense nickel, bringing up a safety or DB (for Greenlaw) to inject speed against the tailback Williams or Mahomes scrambling .....in actuality Wilson is the better scrambler, but Mahomes has the best receiving core in the NFL, so he only needs to give himself an extra half-second to a second. Imagine how good Wilson would look for the Chiefs - I think just as good as Mahomes. In last year's regular season game, the Chiefs dismantled the 49ers defense in the 1st half by screen plays. That could happen again, albeit at maybe a lesser clip. The Packers and Seahawks had somesuccess on several drives with screens. Will the 49ers defense be able to protect TDs for FGs (redzone defense)? Another interting question.
On the flip side the Chiefs are selling out against the run - 7 or 8 in the box, and will force the 49ers to pass. In this case Garrappolo cannot have an off (read high-interception) day, which is possible. Watching the overwhelming 49ers success the 1st 2 games, it is a foregone conclusion, the Chiefs coaching are all in for the run - 6 on the line - 7/8 in the box. In this scenario, the long and medium passes are in play for the 49ers with proper play-action predicated on at least a few of the runs breaking through for big gainers.
One other note from the regular season game, the 49ers were behind 35-10 at half, and made good end-roads the 2nd half outscoring Chiefs 18-3 to closing in,before Jimmy tore his ACL so even if the 49ers defense does upchuck, their offense could make a game of it. - if its a similar half-time score, take heart.
I hope for the 49ers but think the Chiefs might win. Garrapolo has not looked consistent enough imo - he's had some great games but some poor games as well. Will it be the champion level vs-Saints QB or the vs-Steelers debacle QB showing up? Shanahan has seemingly kept that question moot with the running game, but his hand may be forced in the SuperBowl. The Chiefs dont have this enormous question-mark. You see what happens like in the Rams case, last year, when the QB has a poor game and/or is shut down. Lets call it Chiefs 31-27, and hopefully I'm wrong.
On the flip side the Chiefs are selling out against the run - 7 or 8 in the box, and will force the 49ers to pass. In this case Garrappolo cannot have an off (read high-interception) day, which is possible. Watching the overwhelming 49ers success the 1st 2 games, it is a foregone conclusion, the Chiefs coaching are all in for the run - 6 on the line - 7/8 in the box. In this scenario, the long and medium passes are in play for the 49ers with proper play-action predicated on at least a few of the runs breaking through for big gainers.
One other note from the regular season game, the 49ers were behind 35-10 at half, and made good end-roads the 2nd half outscoring Chiefs 18-3 to closing in,before Jimmy tore his ACL so even if the 49ers defense does upchuck, their offense could make a game of it. - if its a similar half-time score, take heart.
I hope for the 49ers but think the Chiefs might win. Garrapolo has not looked consistent enough imo - he's had some great games but some poor games as well. Will it be the champion level vs-Saints QB or the vs-Steelers debacle QB showing up? Shanahan has seemingly kept that question moot with the running game, but his hand may be forced in the SuperBowl. The Chiefs dont have this enormous question-mark. You see what happens like in the Rams case, last year, when the QB has a poor game and/or is shut down. Lets call it Chiefs 31-27, and hopefully I'm wrong.
When the teams faced each other in 2018 the 49ers were 1-1 and the Chiefs 2-0. Mahomes was the league MVP for the season. And Garrapolo went down for the season that game - probably worth about 4 win differential with that injury.. Is there a difference, sure, but how would you quantify - this defense is not the Seahawks Championship defense from 2013, and Mahomes is already a better QB than both Mannings. The 49ers defense is outstanding this year, but have had to be bailed out or had their egg-games on several occasions -- Saints, Falcons, Cardinals. My question is can Garrapolo win the game for the 49ers given a shutdown run-game, and the Chiefs scoring a fairly high amount of points? Yes It is possible, but I think the competition will have no deficit too small. Garrapolo may have to keep up, but will he? The pressure is on.....
I watched both teams closely this year. A ton.
Mahomes, his scrambling, and the speed of the receivers (including Kece) scare me. They’re going to get a few big plays. But their RBs are average, dink n dunk scat backs without any speed. And their defense is overrated. They can’t stop the run without selling out. Selling out worked against the Titans straight line dives, it won’t against the Niners stretch runs (with much faster RBs), counters, n play action. Debo is going to rip huge runs on quick counters n Kittle is going to feast if they sell out. Only reason why Tenn couldn’t win is because Tannehill was unable to play at a league avg level.
The game’s going to be close, but the Niners are the more complete team. They’ll win. This narrative that Garappolo is levels lower than Mahomes is garbage. He’ll prove it on Sunday.
Mahomes, his scrambling, and the speed of the receivers (including Kece) scare me. They’re going to get a few big plays. But their RBs are average, dink n dunk scat backs without any speed. And their defense is overrated. They can’t stop the run without selling out. Selling out worked against the Titans straight line dives, it won’t against the Niners stretch runs (with much faster RBs), counters, n play action. Debo is going to rip huge runs on quick counters n Kittle is going to feast if they sell out. Only reason why Tenn couldn’t win is because Tannehill was unable to play at a league avg level.
The game’s going to be close, but the Niners are the more complete team. They’ll win. This narrative that Garappolo is levels lower than Mahomes is garbage. He’ll prove it on Sunday.
Mahomes looks like he's on a path to become one of the greatest QBs of all time so that's scary in itself. The Niners are going to have to rely on turnovers to slow them down.
People are trying to say if the game goes this way or that way, then they have no chance. How easily they forget that the Niners have won in every conceivable manner this year. They've won high scoring shootouts. They won an old muddy smash mouth game. . They've won in the clutch numerous times. They've won with Jimmy G playing terrible. They've won when turning the ball over a ton. They've won without getting QB pressure. They've won with Jimmy throwing over 400 yards. They've won with Jimmy throwing 77 yards on 8 attempts. They've won games while having a ton of their top players injured. The only games they've lost have been on two last second field goals and one TD that crossed an inch over the line. The most common sense way to beat the Niners is by forcing Jimmy G to throw all game but that's not a guaranteed way to win because he can still beat you easily.
Dee Ford is the key to getting to Mahomes. Without Ford, the Niners struggled a ton with pressure. QBs would just run away from Bosa and pick the defense apart. With Ford there, that puts equal pressure on both sides and allows Armstead to do what he does best on the inside with Buckner. I'm still a bit worried because the Niners have had trouble with taking mobile QBs down but having Ford healthy is the key.
People are trying to say if the game goes this way or that way, then they have no chance. How easily they forget that the Niners have won in every conceivable manner this year. They've won high scoring shootouts. They won an old muddy smash mouth game. . They've won in the clutch numerous times. They've won with Jimmy G playing terrible. They've won when turning the ball over a ton. They've won without getting QB pressure. They've won with Jimmy throwing over 400 yards. They've won with Jimmy throwing 77 yards on 8 attempts. They've won games while having a ton of their top players injured. The only games they've lost have been on two last second field goals and one TD that crossed an inch over the line. The most common sense way to beat the Niners is by forcing Jimmy G to throw all game but that's not a guaranteed way to win because he can still beat you easily.
Dee Ford is the key to getting to Mahomes. Without Ford, the Niners struggled a ton with pressure. QBs would just run away from Bosa and pick the defense apart. With Ford there, that puts equal pressure on both sides and allows Armstead to do what he does best on the inside with Buckner. I'm still a bit worried because the Niners have had trouble with taking mobile QBs down but having Ford healthy is the key.
The Chiefs are getting more than "a few" big plays - try at least 6 long gainers maybe 8 to 10; - if you mean TD long passes - maybe 1 to 3. The Titans were playing pretty good defense coming into the game and got buzz-sawed. I'm pretty sure you'll see the 49ers get a stop or 2, and then all of the sudden, they give up 10 or 14 pt flurry - this may happen once or twice in the game - maybe more How will the offense respond? Will this be the Saints part 2 or a flop Falcons effort?
You could be right about the run-game, and the 49ers will need you to be. Garrappolo is levels lower than Mahomes - he's pretty close to Tannehill actually - slow of foot and turnover-prone under pressure.. You're talking about a little better than average vs the best QB in the NFL and reigning MVP. Garrapolo isn't a top 10 QB this year.
You could be right about the run-game, and the 49ers will need you to be. Garrappolo is levels lower than Mahomes - he's pretty close to Tannehill actually - slow of foot and turnover-prone under pressure.. You're talking about a little better than average vs the best QB in the NFL and reigning MVP. Garrapolo isn't a top 10 QB this year.
They have won in different fashions - true, but they will ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT win the game with Garrapolo playing terribly - if Garrapolo throws say 3+ interceptions, it wont be pretty. You miss one key scenario, how are the 49ers down big? The regular season game from 2018 shows they may be ok, but will they be better than that down say 21 pts. Its a possibility.
Mahomes doesn't need much extra time; the Chiefs receiving core is going to cause fits for the secondary coming back to the QB - you are right to worry. The 49ers would do well to bring in a modified nickel with safety or DB up front to close down outlets faster and limit yardage gain and QB scrambles. Like I said lots of screen passes called in earlier 2018 game, and the 49ers got bit by screens a bunch vs the Seahawks 1st game.
Few people want to a see blowout game unless you're a fan of one or the other team., and even then it can be strangely dissatisfying Last year's game wasn't a blowout, but it was miserable to watch - mostly because it was the Patriots. With the Chiefs playing, I think you can throw out low scoring - so it will be mid to high scoring. I would be very surprised if the 49ers blow them out, and less but still surprised if the Chiefs blow out the 49ers. Low scoring inherently favors the 49ers though - it means the defenses are inserting their mark. Its fun game because I actually like both teams.
final score predictions.....experts picks:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...re-predictions-espn-experts-pick-49ers-chiefs
You may notice the point differential spread of final scores with the 49ers winning is much less than the Chiefs - due to the perceived more potent offense.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...re-predictions-espn-experts-pick-49ers-chiefs
You may notice the point differential spread of final scores with the 49ers winning is much less than the Chiefs - due to the perceived more potent offense.
You'd think the Niners offense was some kind of hapless grind-it-out operation. They scored more points than the Chiefs this season, after all. They led the league in passes over 15 yards.
The Niners led the league in Yards After Catch and the Chiefs D is one of the worst at allowing YAC. Look for Kittle and Deebo to leave tacklers laying and drag some fools down the field.
The Niners led the league in Yards After Catch and the Chiefs D is one of the worst at allowing YAC. Look for Kittle and Deebo to leave tacklers laying and drag some fools down the field.