NBA Lottery Thread

[KingsFanSince85]

Just remember Justin Jackson and Stauskas when you're pulling for the Kings to draft somewhat mediocre "glue" type guys.

Also remember who was calling the shots when those decisions were made.

It’s not the same decision makers steering the ship nowadays, unless you believe Vivek is still overriding his GM.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I’ve noticed that you tend to be wrong about most things, and such is the case with your response to my post that you found necessary to assail.

Vlade’s FOs (and those of his most recent predecessors) did irreparable harm to the Kings franchise.

Divac and his accomplices in misfeasance warrant commentary because their missteps directly contributed to 15 consecutive losing seasons - an NBA record for futility.

This infamous streak is commonly mentioned in other user’s posts and referenced prominently in virtually every article written about the state of the Kings, but in your book doing so is “crying”.

Fans and pundits will stop chastising the flawed management of the organization when they put a winning product out on the floor, and not anytime sooner.

In closing, I assure you that the micro-fractional percentage of time that I spend sharing my opinion about Vlade’s utter ineptitude does not detract from my happiness or my other interests.

Thanks for your concern.

Your sparring with the Cap’t not factoring in, I agree with most of what you say about the KINGS and their mismanagement. Except that it isn’t irreparable. Of course it can be fixed. With the right moves. And time.

I lived through and watched the KINGS be mostly awful from 1985 through 1997 until finally turning things around. A turnaround that spawned many of the fans here at KF’s today.

It can and will happen again.

 

[Groovygreg]

Your sparring with the Cap’t not factoring in, I agree with most of what you say about the KINGS and their mismanagement. Except that it isn’t irreparable. Of course it can be fixed. With the right moves. And time.

I lived through and watched the KINGS be mostly awful from 1985 through 1997 until finally turning things around. A turnaround that spawned many of the fans here at KF’s today.

It can and will happen again.

Thanks, but you can’t fix the past.

It is lost and irrecoverable; that damage can’t be undone - ever.

As fans of a flailing franchise, we certainly CAN look forward to a brighter future - if a competent GM is truly empowered to act in the best interest of basketball/business-related moves.

Modern-day competitiveness and contention will certainly overshadow prior failings, but the past cannot be erased.

The legacy of losing has already been cemented in history.

I, and fellow Kings’ fans, yearn for the franchise to redeem itself.

 

[SacTownKid]

Neither JJ or Stauskas flashed even close to the same defensive potential that Wagner has. Legit size to fit that 3/4 flex wing mold and can be interchangeable with Barnes.

A physical, strong, 6'9", 220, likely a 7' plus wingspan. Yeah, those were JJ's measurements too right? lol.

 

[Tetsujin]

Thanks, but you can’t fix the past.

It is lost and irrecoverable; that damage can’t be undone - ever.

As fans of a flailing franchise, we certainly CAN look forward to a brighter future - if a competent GM is truly empowered to act in the best interest of basketball/business-related moves.

Modern-day competitiveness and contention will certainly overshadow prior failings, but the past cannot be erased.

The legacy of losing has already been cemented in history.

I, and fellow Kings’ fans, yearn for redemption.

well that’s a straw man if I’ve ever seen one.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

I was mostly joking. Wagoneer does have the defense that those guys never had. I think he's the best of what a lot of people think as the lower ceiling prospects but I'm just hoping there's a better player available at 9.

I won't lie, I'll be disappointed if the pick is Wagner. He's a surefire role player, but a role player nonetheless. This team needs so much more than just a role player right now. Going into next season there is an argument to be made that we are one of the 3 worst teams in the West. We need to go for high ceilings and potential. Someone that can help win us extra games while being a major spark for the team and lighting a fire under the fanbase. Wagner isn't that guy.

 

[King Baller]

I won't lie, I'll be disappointed if the pick is Wagner. He's a surefire role player, but a role player nonetheless. This team needs so much more than just a role player right now. Going into next season there is an argument to be made that we are one of the 3 worst teams in the West. We need to go for high ceilings and potential. Someone that can help win us extra games while being a major spark for the team and lighting a fire under the fanbase. Wagner isn't that guy.

I would settle for a rotation player who can defend his position and shoot the 3 at a high percentage.

 

[hrdboild]

I would settle for a rotation player who can defend his position and shoot the 3 at a high percentage.

Franz Wagner did not shoot the 3 at a high percentage in college though and the line moves 3 feet further back in the NBA. Unless you were talking about someone else?

 

[Telemachus]

Franz Wagner did not shoot the 3 at a high percentage in college though and the line moves 3 feet further back in the NBA. Unless you were talking about someone else?

They moved the college 3pt line back to 22' 1.75" last year (same as international play). While still shorter, it's about a foot & a half difference now.

 

[midtowner]

Just one scouts opinion.

Perimeter Shooting (7/10)

The perimeter shooting is not great, but he has shown significant growth in this area. He saw a three percent increase in his three-point shooting from his first year to his next in a larger sample size. He finished his sophomore year shooting at a 34.3 percent clip. Wagner has shown the ability to knock down the open shot but can get a little wayward when closely contested. When taking more difficult shots, his percentage drops severely. Step-backs are not really his move but he has tried them multiple times with little success. He’s not going to light up the box score with his shooting but he’s shown the ability to be a reliable shooter.

My opinion - if you buy Wagner’s long term potential as a 3 point shooter based on his 83% free throw, then he is a legit top ten pick. If you don’t think he’ll be better than league average, he’s probably 15-20 in this draft.

 

[sactowndog]

Franz Wagner did not shoot the 3 at a high percentage in college though and the line moves 3 feet further back in the NBA. Unless you were talking about someone else?

analytics has shown a pretty low correlation between college 3 point percentage and NBA 3 point percentage. Free throw shooting has shown to have a higher correlation and Wagner has consistently shoot well from the line.

With Monte’s propensity for analytics and defense Wagner is getting mocked more consistently to the Kings.

 

[LenPa]

Just one scouts opinion.

Perimeter Shooting (7/10)

The perimeter shooting is not great, but he has shown significant growth in this area. He saw a three percent increase in his three-point shooting from his first year to his next in a larger sample size. He finished his sophomore year shooting at a 34.3 percent clip. Wagner has shown the ability to knock down the open shot but can get a little wayward when closely contested. When taking more difficult shots, his percentage drops severely. Step-backs are not really his move but he has tried them multiple times with little success. He’s not going to light up the box score with his shooting but he’s shown the ability to be a reliable shooter.

My opinion - if you buy Wagner’s long term potential as a 3 point shooter based on his 83% free throw, then he is a legit top ten pick. If you don’t think he’ll be better than league average, he’s probably 15-20 in this draft.

That are some good points. I think that he has the potential (maybe a "German" bias) but I agree that he will fall out of the top 10 if you do not have the feeling that he will become better than league average.

@sactowndog thanks for the information about the correlation between college and NBA shooting. Did not know about that.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413203983041236997

 

[SacTownKid]

Just one scouts opinion.

Perimeter Shooting (7/10)

The perimeter shooting is not great, but he has shown significant growth in this area. He saw a three percent increase in his three-point shooting from his first year to his next in a larger sample size. He finished his sophomore year shooting at a 34.3 percent clip. Wagner has shown the ability to knock down the open shot but can get a little wayward when closely contested. When taking more difficult shots, his percentage drops severely. Step-backs are not really his move but he has tried them multiple times with little success. He’s not going to light up the box score with his shooting but he’s shown the ability to be a reliable shooter.

My opinion - if you buy Wagner’s long term potential as a 3 point shooter based on his 83% free throw, then he is a legit top ten pick. If you don’t think he’ll be better than league average, he’s probably 15-20 in this draft.

Wagner is probably more of a spot shooter/spreader at the next level anyway which is perfectly fine for a combo F next to someone like Fox. I think where he makes up for anything scoring wise is his ability to pass and run a little pick and roll here and there. He's a skilled 2 way role player, that's not a bad thing if you are getting a nice compliment around players that aren't going to be giving the ball up anyway. He's more skilled overall than any of the other wings of that ilk at 9. He does a little bit of everything which means he should be able to run with multiple different lineups.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Thanks, but you can’t fix the past.

It is lost and irrecoverable; that damage can’t be undone - ever.

Ok, well, now your changing parameters. Of course the past can’t be changed.

We were talking about the future of the franchise, no? Where they’re headed.

In that regard, things are certainly reparable.

I don’t know about you, but I’m not about living too much in the past — other than learning things from it,

 

[hrdboild]

They moved the college 3pt line back to 22' 1.75" last year (same as international play). While still shorter, it's about a foot & a half difference now.

Huh, I tried to confirm this and only found stories about the line moving back for next season but I guess that's the NCAA women's rules being changed and filtering to the top of Google because of recency bias. In any case, it seems very presumptive to act like it's a sure-thing that a guy who shot 34% on 102 attempts (3.6 per game) last season is going to become a knock down shooter in the NBA. Hundreds of players have shot better than that in college and were below average in the NBA. If the shot doesn't fall for him next year or the year after that he won't be a 3 and D glue guy he'll be an athletically limited larger wing who doesn't create his own shot very well and is a better defender on paper than on tape.

 

[hrdboild]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413203983041236997

Umm, no. Detroit does not move down 5 spots for 1 year's worth of SGA and the rights to overpay him with a max contract next year. Sam Presti must really be greasing some palms.

 

[kb02]

Umm, no. Detroit does not move down 5 spots for 1 year's worth of SGA and the rights to overpay him with a max contract next year. Sam Presti must really be greasing some palms.

If Bouknight is there at 6, I would do it. I would ask for 16 as well. Then Detroit would get SGA, who gets a near max, but is a cornerstone. Get Bouknight at 6. And BPA at 16.

Detroit rolls out a starting 5 of SGA, Bouknight, Bey, Grant, and Plumlee. That’s a great young core that plays two ways and has legit long term upside,
.

 

[hrdboild]

If Bouknight is there at 6, I would do it. I would ask for 16 as well. Then Detroit would get SGA, who gets a near max, but is a cornerstone. Get Bouknight at 6. And BPA at 16.

Detroit rolls out a starting 5 of SGA, Bouknight, Bey, Grant, and Plumlee. That’s a great young core that plays two ways and has legit long term upside,
.

Yeah but you think Bouknight is a lock for the hall of fame so it's a little hard to take you seriously on this point. Most of us have Cade Cunningham ranked way way way above anyone who will be available for the 6th pick. I think that lineup will have a hard time making the 8th seed. Of course I said that about Atlanta last year and they damn near made the Finals so who knows. If everyone else in the East gets injured again I guess...

 

[Tetsujin]

Umm, no. Detroit does not move down 5 spots for 1 year's worth of SGA and the rights to overpay him with a max contract next year. Sam Presti must really be greasing some palms.

Yeah, I think Shai'd be a definite all-star in the east but he's going to get a Fox/Tatum max contract in a season and, while I'm all-in on loading up on as many versatile wings as possible, Detroit'd probably struggle to make Grant/Bey/(Kuminga or Barnes) work as a satisfactory rotation, even accounting for Grant seeing most of his minutes as a 4.

Meanwhile, Cade'd be cost controlled for the next four years and under team control for the next decade or so and slot in perfectly for their lead guard role. Also he's good.

 

[kb02]

Yeah but you think Bouknight is a lock for the hall of fame so it's a little hard to take you seriously on this point. Most of us have Cade Cunningham ranked way way way above anyone who will be available for the 6th pick. I think that lineup will have a hard time making the 8th seed. Of course I said that about Atlanta last year and they damn near made the Finals so who knows. If everyone else in the East gets injured again I guess...

A part of it is, I don’t see Cade as a generational talent. I would take Green, Barnes, Bouknight, or Mobley over him. So it’s not just Bouknight. I think his range is somewhere between Harrison Barnes with better handles and Paul George. Don’t think he’ll be able to be the team’s primary ball handler either.

 

[kb02]

Yeah, I think Shai'd be a definite all-star in the east but he's going to get a Fox/Tatum max contract in a season and, while I'm all-in on loading up on as many versatile wings as possible, Detroit'd probably struggle to make Grant/Bey/(Kuminga or Barnes) work as a satisfactory rotation, even accounting for Grant seeing most of his minutes as a 4.

Meanwhile, Cade'd be cost controlled for the next four years and under team control for the next decade or so and slot in perfectly for their lead guard role. Also he's good.

A lot of his value hinges on him being able to be the team’s primary creator. I don’t see that type of handle nor that type of athleticism to do that.

 

[Tetsujin]

A part of it is, I don’t see Cade as a generational talent. I would take Green, Barnes, Bouknight, or Mobley over him. So it’s not just Bouknight. I think his range is somewhere between Harrison Barnes with better handles and Paul George. Don’t think he’ll be able to be the team’s primary ball handler either.

Me reading this spicy hot take:

 

[kb02]

Me reading this spicy hot take:

I sleep well knowing non-generational players are more likely to bust than hit.

 

[Tetsujin]

A lot of his value hinges on him being able to be the team’s primary creator. I don’t see that type of handle nor that type of athleticism to do that.

This was pretty much the entirety of the argument against drafting Luka.

 

[Telemachus]

This was pretty much the entirety of the argument against drafting Luka.

And I would argue that Cade is more athletic than Doncic a with handles that are equal to or better than Doncic. And Cade plays defense.

 

[Tetsujin]

And I would argue that Cade is more athletic than Doncic a with handles that are equal to or better than Doncic. And Cade plays defense.

Cade's bigger than him too.

The one area that I will say that Luka was clearly better than Cade coming into the league is body control. Luka understands angles better than pretty much any non-Harden player in the league.

 

[kb02]

And I would argue that Cade is more athletic than Doncic a with handles that are equal to or better than Doncic. And Cade plays defense.

That’s the biggest unknown. For every Luka or Harden, who have the ability to go where they want to because of their size and craft, dozens don’t. We’ll see in a few months.

 

[hrdboild]

That’s the biggest unknown. For every Luka or Harden, who have the ability to go where they want to because of their size and craft, dozens don’t. We’ll see in a few months.

The main reason I believe in Cade is that he possesses more than just skill, size, and athleticism. He has an 'it' factor that doesn't come around very often. Star level players have a knack for making plays out of nothing and Cade did that consistently this year. I think I can count on one hand the number of prospects who I felt were can't miss because of some intangible 'it' factor. Luka had it. Embiid had it. Westbrook had it. That might be the whole list for me.

 

[ESP47]

I'm seeing Luka's name pop up in recent posts.

Who's down to hash out Luka vs. Bagley tonight?