While it is true that the Spurs are beatable, that is a BIG task. The good news is that out side of Dallas the Kings are about the best match up in the West. Here is how I see the match up going IF the Kings are going to win.
Parker- yes too quick for Bibby and for Hart as well. He will get his UNLESS the Kings do what they did in the last game and that is throw lots of doubles teams at him to force the ball out of his hands. If not The Kings are in for a few longs nights in a short series. Good news is that on the other end of the court Bibby can get his against Parker, especially if he continues to get the great screens that Brad, Kenny, and Reef give him.
Ginobili- The guy loves to penetrate but with Bonzi on him Kings can force him to take outside shots, and cough up the ball on penetration. At the other end of the court Bonzi should be able to post up on him at will.
Bowen- Never a threat inside this is the guy the Kings can cheat on defense BUT you have to watch him and be able to rotate back when he gets the ball outside. Assuming they keep him on Ron at the other end this could be a foul fest, Ron has to give up the often and make Bowen work, Also I think Ron can take him off the dribble but he ought to be trying to get the ball against him down low.
Duncan- What can any one really do about Tim? So far this season (and in the past) the Brad/Reef combo has done ok in regular season, but this is NOT the regular season. Good news for the Kings is that Tim may still be slowed up a bit from the recent injury. Not sure if Brad still remembers how to play physical but light and stupid fouls will kill him when he had the assignment to guard Duncan. Kenny gets beat every time help defense is a must with Kenny on the floor, and expect to see Kenny’s min come more often with Tim out. Good news is that both Kenny and Reef should be a little quicker than Tim and Reef might get him into foul trouble. It is also like Pop to switch up assignments sending Tim out to guard Brad and leaving Naz to guard the paint. This is bad news for Brad… but again if Brad plays SMART he might fish Tim into some fouls and by keeping him out of the paint help offset the rebounding deficit the Kings are sure to face.
Mohamed- The guy is probably the week link here… and that is NOT the good news. Because Tim creates the miss match and pulls Brad on doubles Naz will be free to roam the paint at will UNLESS Reef/Kenny and Brad can make their rotations with out a hitch. On the defensive end he can block shots but I’m not sure he can guard Reefs post up game. IF he comes out of the paint to guard Brad, Brad ought to get his mid range and 3 point shots off nicely.
First glance would seem to give a big advantage to the Spurs bench: Horry, Van Exel, and Finely all certified King killers and Barry and this group has the most experience of any bench in the NBA. BUT you could say the same thing with a Bench made up of Bill Walton, Jeff Horececk, Bill Lambier and Vinny Johnson… point being ALL these guys are old. I would not bet on them not having enough in the tank for one more run, BUT the Kings bench gets a HUGE advantage in terms of age and quickness. Martin can take Nick the former Quick and my not guard Nick as well as say Bonzi can but it will be fun to watch. Finely will get most of his time against Ron and possibly Corless or Garcia… again the trick is to make Finely put the ball on the floor! He can NOT beat Ron or Cisco on the dribble but if you let him take jumper tings will be ugly! Horry… Who knows. I would have given him up for dead 3 season ago but he always seems to be there. In general he is no match for Reef down low and even against Kenny should be relegated to out side shooting. Don’t let him get a game winner off and things ought to go well. On defense Horry will do his usual poking and prodding trying to use physical play to make up for his slow footedness, Kenny has to keep his cool as will Reef… the BIG enemy with Horry is your own head when he gets by with a grab, or poke. Barry? Hmmm not much of a defender anymore so his whole purpose is the spread the floor. As with Finely make him put the ball on the floor and you can cheat off him for the double teams IF you can rotate back BEFORE he catches the ball.
In the end Spurs spread the floor better than any team in the game, and they have to to get the offense in motion. Parker and Ginobili count on penetration and getting the ball to TD and Naz down low so they can work. Solid perimeter defense, double teams and quick rotations are a MUST. Kings can expect to get out rebounded, but can minimize the impact by crashing the boards on the defensive end and shooting a high percentage on the other. The Spurs do like to run so getting them in to the half court will help, and the fact that the Kings are younger might be a factor in later games. The longer this series runs the better for the Kings, youth will be served!
As for the Kings offense as usual it starts with ball movement. Fortunately for Mike all season he and the team have been coping with pressure defense that will not be new for him. Passing the ball, and getting the high percentage shot will help make up for the poor rebounding we have seen all season. Let Ron work down low but Ron HAS to pass out of the double teams BEFORE they form and then magic can happen because that means SOMEONE is open. Brad HAS to take the open shots when he gets them… love the passing but love his mid range even more. And guys PLEASE do not fall in love with the 3 point shots ESPCIALLY when you are down!