Luka Doncic (the 'LET'S RE-LITIGATE THE PICK UNTO PERPETUITY~!' thread)

[rainmaker]

His defense isn’t at the level of Curry or Harden at this point but yes he could get there.

Harden? Thanks for the laugh.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Harden? Thanks for the laugh.

I feel like it bears acknowledging that Harden finished ninth in MVP voting in 2016.

Harden has improved defensively. He's not great, and he'll never be great; given how far he is into his career, he'll probably never even be good. But he's better, and that's enough. Harden went from being thought of as one of the best offensive players in the league to an MVP/generational talent, when his defensive effort improved from so-awful-it's-meme-worthy to being merely bad. So the thought that Doncic won't attain that status, based on his defense as a rookie, doesn't really resonate with me. But yeah, it's hardly ridiculous to suggest that 2018-19 Luka Doncic is a step below even 2018-19 James Harden defensively, and pulling out a blooper reel from 2016 isn't an effective refutation of that statement.

If Doncic continues to play for Carlisle, he'll get there. People forget that, when Richard Hamilton was traded from Washington to Detroit, he was miserable defensively. Carlisle got him from miserable to adequate. He can probably do the same thing for Doncic.

 

[steelevt]

From what I see Bagley's game has little in common with Hakeem the Dream, who had one of the most refined post games this game has ever seen. Bagley is a mix between Amare and Bosh.

And that's the crux of the issue here in the player comparisons. Bagley projects to be a very good player, a 22/10 or 20/12 type. But more a support player, 2nd/3rd option type. Luka projects as a clear 1st option. He's already closing games by himself with entire defenses geared towards stopping him and has the offensive system flow thru him. They are different tiers of players.

The player on the Kings roster most comparable to Luka given the above is Fox. Fox projects as a #1 option. He can control the flow. He's a closer. He's a 1v1 player who can draw and create. Bagley at best will be his sidekick, his Robin. That's why Vlade drafted him, to essentially be Nash's Amare. And it might work out that way. Or not.

But Bagley is not a #1 who the Kings are going to try to find a sidekick for. Luka is a #1 the Mavs down the road will have to find a sidekick for.

Hence entirely different tiers of players and the Hakeem comparison does not apply. One is a cornerstone you build around. The other is a player who builds around the cornerstone.

I don't see much Jordan in Luka's game either. He's got this mix of some Steph Curry and Paul Pierce yet can also drop 12 dimes on a team with completely mediocre shooters. He's got some Jason Kidd to him as well with his vision.

It's wasn't a direct comparison of skills but one of a big drafted before a wing/guard. The one off the top of my head was hakeem and Jordan but if you can think of a better one, yeah. Main point is I'd be happy if at a point in the future we have a great, even hof type, big as a consolation prize for missing out on a "once in a generation" type player.

 

[sergmatt]

From what I see Bagley's game has little in common with Hakeem the Dream, who had one of the most refined post games this game has ever seen. Bagley is a mix between Amare and Bosh.

And that's the crux of the issue here in the player comparisons. Bagley projects to be a very good player, a 22/10 or 20/12 type. But more a support player, 2nd/3rd option type. Luka projects as a clear 1st option. He's already closing games by himself with entire defenses geared towards stopping him and has the offensive system flow thru him. They are different tiers of players.

The player on the Kings roster most comparable to Luka given the above is Fox. Fox projects as a #1 option. He can control the flow. He's a closer. He's a 1v1 player who can draw and create. Bagley at best will be his sidekick, his Robin. That's why Vlade drafted him, to essentially be Nash's Amare. And it might work out that way. Or not.

But Bagley is not a #1 who the Kings are going to try to find a sidekick for. Luka is a #1 the Mavs down the road will have to find a sidekick for.

Hence entirely different tiers of players and the Hakeem comparison does not apply. One is a cornerstone you build around. The other is a player who builds around the cornerstone.

I don't see much Jordan in Luka's game either. He's got this mix of some Steph Curry and Paul Pierce yet can also drop 12 dimes on a team with completely mediocre shooters. He's got some Jason Kidd to him as well with his vision.

Summed it up perfectly. Great post.

 

[NME]

I hate to say, but I don't think even the best possible version of Bagley will justify the pick. At least if he does reach his potential, we will have a very good player, which is more than a lot of teams can say drafting at the semi-cursed #2 spot.

 

[Joshoua]

From what I see Bagley's game has little in common with Hakeem the Dream, who had one of the most refined post games this game has ever seen. Bagley is a mix between Amare and Bosh.

And that's the crux of the issue here in the player comparisons. Bagley projects to be a very good player, a 22/10 or 20/12 type. But more a support player, 2nd/3rd option type. Luka projects as a clear 1st option. He's already closing games by himself with entire defenses geared towards stopping him and has the offensive system flow thru him. They are different tiers of players.

The player on the Kings roster most comparable to Luka given the above is Fox. Fox projects as a #1 option. He can control the flow. He's a closer. He's a 1v1 player who can draw and create. Bagley at best will be his sidekick, his Robin. That's why Vlade drafted him, to essentially be Nash's Amare. And it might work out that way. Or not.

But Bagley is not a #1 who the Kings are going to try to find a sidekick for. Luka is a #1 the Mavs down the road will have to find a sidekick for.

Hence entirely different tiers of players and the Hakeem comparison does not apply. One is a cornerstone you build around. The other is a player who builds around the cornerstone.

I don't see much Jordan in Luka's game either. He's got this mix of some Steph Curry and Paul Pierce yet can also drop 12 dimes on a team with completely mediocre shooters. He's got some Jason Kidd to him as well with his vision.

You draft for talent not fit in the top 3. Luka cane from a very structured system he’s not done 1on1 player who can’t play off the ball. He’s been playing with Llull and killed it as a sidekick to Dragic last year was his first year as the main ball handler. Fox/Luka are both smart and unselfish why this agenda that they can’t play together is being pushed I’d beyond me. Multiple playmakers makes the team harder to stop having 2 number 2 scorers makes you a championship team. I’d understand the argument for only 1 top creator of this was 2002 but literally every single team to win a championship has had multiple creators

 

[dude12]

You draft for talent not fit in the top 3. Luka cane from a very structured system he’s not done 1on1 player who can’t play off the ball. He’s been playing with Llull and killed it as a sidekick to Dragic last year was his first year as the main ball handler. Fox/Luka are both smart and unselfish why this agenda that they can’t play together is being pushed I’d beyond me. Multiple playmakers makes the team harder to stop having 2 number 2 scorers makes you a championship team. I’d understand the argument for only 1 top creator of this was 2002 but literally every single team to win a championship has had multiple creators

You are assuming Bagley can’t become more than what you view him as. And I’m not interested in debating it. I’m just offering up the possibility. For me, I see the probability of what he will become.

 

[Joshoua]

You are assuming Bagley can’t become more than what you view him as. And I’m not interested in debating it. I’m just offering up the possibility. For me, I see the probability of what he will become.

I just belive it’s a wing league unless you’re Embiid/AD/Jokic Bagley should be good though

 

[sactowndog]

I feel like it bears acknowledging that Harden finished ninth in MVP voting in 2016.

Harden has improved defensively. He's not great, and he'll never be great; given how far he is into his career, he'll probably never even be good. But he's better, and that's enough. Harden went from being thought of as one of the best offensive players in the league to an MVP/generational talent, when his defensive effort improved from so-awful-it's-meme-worthy to being merely bad. So the thought that Doncic won't attain that status, based on his defense as a rookie, doesn't really resonate with me. But yeah, it's hardly ridiculous to suggest that 2018-19 Luka Doncic is a step below even 2018-19 James Harden defensively, and pulling out a blooper reel from 2016 isn't an effective refutation of that statement.

If Doncic continues to play for Carlisle, he'll get there. People forget that, when Richard Hamilton was traded from Washington to Detroit, he was miserable defensively. Carlisle got him from miserable to adequate. He can probably do the same thing for Doncic.

Well put. Anyone who thinks they can accurately predict where these players will be in 3 years is kidding themselves. Doncic could well improve his level of defensive play. I know NBA people who think his offensive game will regress next year as players know his game better.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

You draft for talent not fit in the top 3.

You need to draft for both. Especially in this day where talent is recruiting talent under contract to come play with them in pretty much direct violation of every fair play rule from before the 2010s.

I'm reading far too many stories of mega talented players that won't play together, it's quite an extensive list over the past decade.

If we have two all-star level talents who stay out of each other's lane and in fact highlight/make each other better, odds are they can attract that third piece of the puzzle to come along for the ride rather than be the guy recruited to join someone else's next big 3.

If Fox and Bags become perennial all-stars and stay with the team for the prime of their careers that will be good enough for me. Even if Doncic is a next level player.

I really think all of these questions are still a good 3 years away from being answered definitively.

 

[The Effort Police]

We will get over it when the Kings are a perennial deep playoff team with championship aspirations. Until then, we will have near daily reminders we passed up a generational talent.

Gonna take a dynasty actually.

Portland's fielded some great teams over the years but still regularly hears about Oden and Bowie. Detroit won a championship and is still the butt of Darko jokes.

And that's not even getting into the fact that Oden and Darko were considered reasonable selections at the time. Us passing on Doncic was ridiculed from Day 1.

 

[SLAB]

Gonna take a dynasty actually.

Portland's fielded some great teams over the years but still regularly hears about Oden and Bowie. Detroit won a championship and is still the butt of Darko jokes.

And that's not even getting into the fact that Oden and Darko were considered reasonable selections at the time. Us passing on Doncic was ridiculed from Day 1.

Unless we win a title there will ALWAYS be the “What ifs” if Doncic continues on this path.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Well put. Anyone who thinks they can accurately predict where these players will be in 3 years is kidding themselves. Doncic could well improve his level of defensive play. I know NBA people who think his offensive game will regress next year as players know his game better.

Couple of things here. And not trying to pick on you sactowndog, I do agree with plenty of your posts.

He may regress. Doubt it, but it's possible. Sillier still to think he won't learn from that year given how incredibly young he is. He's not at his peak. Nor near it. I don't care that he's not a freak athlete. A young 20 year old in his first NBA year is nowhere near his peak.

Second point. Let the record show that I was one of the few OK with taking Bagley ahead of him. Doncic was my first choice, but I could see the logic in Bagley. This goes back a year before the draft. Post history is there, so this is not personal. I think Marvin could be a multiple time all star and I will not be surprised to see that happen. Anything positive I say about Doncic has absolutely nothing to do with Marvin. Better believe it has everything to do with the absolute s**t I saw in "evaluation" of Doncic' prior to the draft. I'm European so I take it personal when people use my stereotypes to evaluate a player. It's ridiculous given how diverse Europe is (I have more in common with 70% of Americans than I do with Doncic) but that's how it goes. Still a lot of misconceptions out there about Euro players.

Three years from now this discussion could be completely different, and I absolutely hope it is. As long as the King's are successful, that's all I care about. That doesn't mean my posts have to be solely about the King's, or that I can't call out what I see as illogical posts about Doncic. I'm wrong plenty. People can hold me accountable, especially if my ego doesn't allow me to admit my mistake. Unfortunately others won't admit the same. Goalposts are frequently moved to save face.

Quick edit: apart from the opening line, the rest of my post was not aimed at sactowndog. Feel like we've been arguing the last few days and not my intention. Rest of my post is general, not specific to one poster. We all want the same thing at the end of the day.

 

[burekijogurt]

Gonna take a dynasty actually.

Portland's fielded some great teams over the years but still regularly hears about Oden and Bowie. Detroit won a championship and is still the butt of Darko jokes.

And that's not even getting into the fact that Oden and Darko were considered reasonable selections at the time. Us passing on Doncic was ridiculed from Day 1.

This does not seem true. ridiculed by who? other gms? pundits? i did not hear reports of other gms ridiculing this choice. i heard a lot of pundits arguing we should draft Bagley and then saying Kings drafted well after they did. other pundints argued for Luka. but.there was no unanimous ridicule as far as I remember.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Unless we win a title there will ALWAYS be the “What ifs” if Doncic continues on this path.

Even if the Mavericks don't win any?

 

[dude12]

I just belive it’s a wing league unless you’re Embiid/AD/Jokic Bagley should be good though

As far as being a wing league now......see I’m not so sure that’s true. I think it’s aleays been a talent league. You still have elite bigs, elites PGs making their marks and being top flight guys.

I still believe that it’s a collection of guys on a team that fit as far as who can win it all. And of course, you have to have 1 or 2 top guys. Wings can’t win without bigs who are elite at what they do, can’t win without PGs who are elite at what they do and then there is just the meshing of talent. And to be clear, not just an elite big but a big who can be elite at what they do.....kind of like the year Cavs won with LeBron who is a freak athlete, Kylie an elite scorer, but they don’t win without a guy like Tristan Thompson that year who was elite at Pick and roll D and rebounding. Once Warriors added KD, it was too many weapons for the Cavs.

Celtics with all those wings have somewhat stalled. Some good wings but they are missing something.

Doncic obviously a talent but the Mavs are really missing some pieces around him.

One reason I’m excited about the Bagley addition to Sac. There is a great deal of potential on the team defensively and offensively.

 

[burekijogurt]

Well put. Anyone who thinks they can accurately predict where these players will be in 3 years is kidding themselves. Doncic could well improve his level of defensive play. I know NBA people who think his offensive game will regress next year as players know his game better.

DimeDropper already addressed the possible decline in his offense from the development stand point, but I just wanted to add that it seems less and less likely that his progression as a player will depend on what other players do. We first had concerns that his game would suffer once he meets the athletic NBA player. As that did not come to pass, there were suggestions that other NBA players will get sick of Doncic getting all this attention and are going to take him seriously and clamp down on him. As this has not happened, we are thinking that once he is completely familiar to everyone he will be stopped. All of this somehow assumes it is the other players that define his ceiling and that if these other guys just do this or that particular thing they will neutralize him. But it seems more and more likely that his ceiling is in his own hands regardless of what the other players/coaches do.

 

[dude12]

This does not seem true. ridiculed by who? other gms? pundits? i did not hear reports of other gms ridiculing this choice. i heard a lot of pundits arguing we should draft Bagley and then saying Kings drafted well after they did. other pundints argued for Luka. but.there was no unanimous ridicule as far as I remember.

Agreed.......quite frankly, the top of this draft is proving to be pretty damn good for all of those teams.

 

[dude12]

i Don’t see Doncic regressing so much as stagnating IF he doesn’t become a professional in regards to his strength and conditioning. Same was true for Fox who got stronger. Would have been a huge red flag if he didn’t come back physically changed. Same is true of many young players. Same goes for Bagley......he needs to gain strength to match the grown ass men in the league.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Couple of things here. And not trying to pick on you sactowndog, I do agree with plenty of your posts.

He may regress. Doubt it, but it's possible. Sillier still to think he won't learn from that year given how incredibly young he is. He's not at his peak. Nor near it. I don't care that he's not a freak athlete. A young 20 year old in his first NBA year is nowhere near his peak.

Second point. Let the record show that I was one of the few OK with taking Bagley ahead of him. Doncic was my first choice, but I could see the logic in Bagley. This goes back a year before the draft. Post history is there, so this is not personal. I think Marvin could be a multiple time all star and I will not be surprised to see that happen. Anything positive I say about Doncic has absolutely nothing to do with Marvin. Better believe it has everything to do with the absolute s**t I saw in "evaluation" of Doncic' prior to the draft. I'm European so I take it personal when people use my stereotypes to evaluate a player. It's ridiculous given how diverse Europe is (I have more in common with 70% of Americans than I do with Doncic) but that's how it goes. Still a lot of misconceptions out there about Euro players.

Three years from now this discussion could be completely different, and I absolutely hope it is. As long as the King's are successful, that's all I care about. That doesn't mean my posts have to be solely about the King's, or that I can't call out what I see as illogical posts about Doncic. I'm wrong plenty. People can hold me accountable, especially if my ego doesn't allow me to admit my mistake. Unfortunately others won't admit the same. Goalposts are frequently moved to save face.

Quick edit: apart from the opening line, the rest of my post was not aimed at sactowndog. Feel like we've been arguing the last few days and not my intention. Rest of my post is general, not specific to one poster. We all want the same thing at the end of the day.

This is a great post. Had to do more than just give it a like.

 

[whozit]

I hate to say, but I don't think even the best possible version of Bagley will justify the pick. At least if he does reach his potential, we will have a very good player, which is more than a lot of teams can say drafting at the semi-cursed #2 [ ]
I sorta wonder what Phoenix and Atlanta fans think about them passing on him.

I do have a question. If I may use an alagory of a two or more team trade. Sometimes/often one team or the other gets reamed in the deal. And occasionally, both teams get exactly what they want and both get better.

There is no denying is Donic's offensive talent. The argument has now been proposed that his defensive inadequacies are hidden by Dallas's defensive players. Slim has countered that Dallas's coach has been known to make defensive sieves adequate and Donic shouldn't be any different.

The Kings however aren't Dallas and I'm not sure that they have makeup to cover anyone on defense. And on the other hand, the Kings have shown that they just aren't nearly as good with Bagley sidelined.

The one thing that was consistent during the glory days was the sum of the parts of the team taken together was always greater than the sum of them taken individually. Whether or not the Kings are successful going forward is much more pertinent to me than rather Donic is better than Bagley (and that is yet to be determined) long term.

My question is simply if this is one of those times everyone ends happy with the outcome. It could easily be good for Donic, Mavericks and most importantly good for the Kings.

 

[The Effort Police]

This does not seem true. ridiculed by who? other gms? pundits? i did not hear reports of other gms ridiculing this choice. i heard a lot of pundits arguing we should draft Bagley and then saying Kings drafted well after they did. other pundints argued for Luka. but.there was no unanimous ridicule as far as I remember.

Pundits and fans. Every draft site I looked it was Ayton and Doncic at 1 and 2. Ridicule was more about passing up on Doncic over how Bagley was doing as a prospect but I still saw way more sites having Bagley slide rather than be an option at #2 for us. I never saw him as #2 on any draft board in the weeks leading up to the draft until it was rumored we were heavily interested in him. If there was ever someone I saw overtaking the Doncic Ayton pair on the draft boards it was JJJ., never Bagley.

 

[dude12]

Pundits and fans. Every draft site I looked it was Ayton and Doncic at 1 and 2. Ridicule was more about passing up on Doncic over how Bagley was doing as a prospect but I still saw way more sites having Bagley slide rather than be an option at #2 for us. I never saw him as #2 on any draft board in the weeks leading up to the draft until it was rumored we were heavily interested in him. If there was ever someone I saw overtaking the Doncic Ayton pair on the draft boards it was JJJ., never Bagley.

Pre-draft there is a lot of speculating on all the players in an I exact science. Look at the previous draft. I do believe the Kings, if they were given there choice again of any player would once again take Fox whom no one had as the number 1 pick and in fact Markelle Fultz was clearly established as the first pick.

Pundits are trying to give an educated guess in an inexact science.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Gonna take a dynasty actually.

Portland's fielded some great teams over the years but still regularly hears about Oden and Bowie. Detroit won a championship and is still the butt of Darko jokes.

And that's not even getting into the fact that Oden and Darko were considered reasonable selections at the time. Us passing on Doncic was ridiculed from Day 1.

The difference between Oden and Bowie is those guys got hurt and never had a shot. Oden, LaMarcus and Roy played 82 games together and won at a 75% clip but that was it. Darko was just a complete bust.

If Bags becomes an all-star that is far better than any of those three ever achieved.

People were predicting the Kings would pick Doncic and he would be a bust and LOLKANGZ before word got out we were favoring Bagley and then the Bagley bashing began. I can assure you that no matter who the Kings picked it would be picked to death.

 

[TaxMan]

Three years from now this discussion could be completely different, and I absolutely hope it is. As long as the King's are successful, that's all I care about. That doesn't mean my posts have to be solely about the King's, or that I can't call out what I see as illogical posts about Doncic. I'm wrong plenty. People can hold me accountable, especially if my ego doesn't allow me to admit my mistake. Unfortunately others won't admit the same. Goalposts are frequently moved to save face.

If the team grows and becomes a contender with Marvin as one of its top players (even if he ends up very good instead of great) then the heartburn over Luka will go away. In hindsight, Jason Williams was absolutely the “wrong” pick with Dirk and Paul Pierce on the board, but I rarely if ever hear complaints about that pick.

 

[SLAB]

If the team grows and becomes a contender with Marvin as one of its top players (even if he ends up very good instead of great) then the heartburn over Luka will go away. In hindsight, Jason Williams was absolutely the “wrong” pick with Dirk and Paul Pierce on the board, but I rarely if ever hear complaints about that pick.

I don’t remember that far back, but were either Dirk or Pierce widley expected to be picked at his spot?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Pierce slipped huge on draft day. I feel like he was pegged as a top 3 talent but he just kept falling. I really thought the Kings would take him, but we had Peja coming over.

So you know, whatever. If you really want to re-litigate, we could have picked Nash over Peja... I sometimes wonder if the folks who never will let this go, go there. I wouldn't trade that what if for the magic we actually lived, ever.

 

[Tetsujin]

Pierce slipped huge on draft day. I feel like he was pegged as a top 3 talent but he just kept falling. I really thought the Kings would take him, but we had Peja coming over.

So you know, whatever. If you really want to re-litigate, we could have picked Nash over Peja... I sometimes wonder if the folks who never will let this go, go there. I wouldn't trade that what if for the magic we actually lived, ever.

And to be fair, it looked like Peja was the better player than Nash for like the first five years of their NBA careers.

 

[St00]

people saying doncic might regress, i guess same people saying he won't show in NBA

 

[sactowndog]

DimeDropper already addressed the possible decline in his offense from the development stand point, but I just wanted to add that it seems less and less likely that his progression as a player will depend on what other players do. We first had concerns that his game would suffer once he meets the athletic NBA player. As that did not come to pass, there were suggestions that other NBA players will get sick of Doncic getting all this attention and are going to take him seriously and clamp down on him. As this has not happened, we are thinking that once he is completely familiar to everyone he will be stopped. All of this somehow assumes it is the other players that define his ceiling and that if these other guys just do this or that particular thing they will neutralize him. But it seems more and more likely that his ceiling is in his own hands regardless of what the other players/coaches do.

Perhaps but I think you will see teams defend him differently. Luka provides some unique challenges for sure. But you also see teams starting to put guards on him defensively and match up bigger everywhere else. Smart and Fox did a good job defensively on him. Luka will have to develop his game which he could well do.

Defensively, I think Luka may struggle more in the playoffs then the season. Teams will be better able to force switches to get Luka on the perimeter in defense. None of this means Luka isn’t a very good player but these comments that his game doesn’t have holes is over top. Whether he can fill those holes over the next couple years we will see.